对于后市，新湖期货评论表示，当前供需基本面矛盾仍不明显，消费弱势运行，淡季终端市场维持低迷 状态，且对当前锡价接受度不高。供给端也延续较低状态，锡精矿工业依旧紧张，冶炼厂维持较低开工 率状态。国内库存小幅变化，暂无明显压力。短期市场仍受宏观政策面情绪影响，锡价暂高位震荡为 主。 （文华综合） 沪锡冲高回落，主力合约收涨0.42%，报收268540元/吨。锡下游需求处于淡季表现疲软，供应端维持强 现实与弱预期格局，基本面驱动有限，近期反内卷政策持续发酵，宏观情绪反复，沪锡跟随有色板块波 动。 6月我国进口锡精矿数量较5月小幅下降，国内原料端供应仍相对较紧。6月进口锡精矿及其矿砂主要增 量来自刚果（金）和缅甸，其中刚果（金）增量较为明显。虽然3月中下旬由于缘政治冲突导致短期停 产，引发国内矿紧预期；但复产后生产暂未有阻碍，且80%以上是运输到国内港口。7月15日，缅甸低 邦地区召开公开会议，数家企业的矿产开采许可证申请通过(有效期三年)。据了解，相关企业在完成管 理费缴纳及实物税清缴后，预计将陆续启动矿山正常经营活动，当地矿业生产秩序有望逐步恢复。 近期小幅拉涨，冶炼厂多持挺价情绪，实际鲜有成交。贸易商方面积极入 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high since November 2024, closing at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [1] - The analyst from a futures company stated that the aluminum fundamentals are the strongest among base metals, supported by a limited smelting capacity of 45 million tons and rising alumina prices [1] - As of July 18, the total aluminum inventory monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,822 tons, the lowest since February 2024, despite a rebound over three consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global lead market surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared to a shortage of 6,000 tons in April [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 23,000 tons, down from a surplus of 68,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - The global zinc market faced a shortage of 43,900 tons in May 2025, contrasting with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April [1] Group 3 - LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons or 2.27%, reaching 124,850 tons, with the largest change occurring in the Guangyang warehouse, which added 1,500 tons [2] - LME three-month zinc rose by 0.14% to $2,842.5 per ton, while three-month tin increased by 0.1% to $33,845 per ton [2] - Three-month copper saw a slight increase of 0.07% to $9,866.5 per ton, while three-month lead and nickel experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.18%, respectively [2]

LME仓库锌总库存为118,225吨。已注销的仓单或指定交割的库存占比为50%，表明还有59,900吨锌将用 于交割。 但交易商表示，市场对这些锌是否真的会离开LME仓库仍存疑，因为这些金属大多储存在新加坡，而 其中很大一部分属于所谓的"租金分成协议"。 "租金协议"是指LME注册仓库与向其交付金属的公司之间达成的盈利性安排，根据协议，仓库会与这些 公司分享仓储费用或租金收入。 7月21日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）锌价上涨至四个月高点，此前数据显示伦敦金属交易所 (LME)注册仓库中超过一半的库存已被标记为注销仓单，引发了市场对供应紧张的担忧。 伦敦时间7月21日17:00(北京时间7月22日00:00)，LME三个月期锌上涨20美元，或0.71%，收报每吨 2,838.5美元。 | | 7月21日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金属 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,860.00 1 | +81.50 ↑ +0.83% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,646.50 1 | +17.00 ↑ +0.65% | | 三个月期锌 ...

国产矿方面，得益于山西、河南等地部分矿山复产，今年国产铝土矿产量有所增加，但由于国产矿山审批标准严格，同时考虑到安全生产问题的扰动，国产 矿山仍保持常态化收紧。前段时间山西地区出台为中部地区崛起提供自然资源支撑的方案，意在进一步优化增量资源配置，但是对国内铝土矿产量的增加具 有延时性，短期内提振影响不大。 SHMET 网讯： 7月上旬，受几内亚矿端扰动、仓单持续下滑、"反内卷"政策等多方面利好因素提振，氧化铝期价继续上涨。上周五政策再添新利好消息，7月18日，工业和 信息化部在新闻发布会上表示，钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产 能。该消息导致市场预期氧化铝行业将进行新一轮供给侧改革，提振氧化铝期价大涨。另外，7月18日氧化铝仓单大幅下降至6922吨，极低仓单水平引发市 场对流动性不足和挤仓风险的担忧。 极低的仓单注册量加上政策预期共同推动氧化铝期价暴涨，今日08、09合约盘中触及涨停板，主力09合约创近五个月新高，日内成交量大增逾60万手至近 100万手。氧化铝期价上涨背后推手的实际情况如何？后期基本面有何表现？ 几内亚进入雨季，影响 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]

Group 1 - Copper prices in London rose to a one-week high, with expectations of increased buying demand following recent price declines and higher risk appetite among investors [1] - The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by $69 or 0.72% to $9,736 per ton, marking the highest price since July 10, with a weekly increase of over 0.5% [1] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in copper prices, with the main contract increasing by 510 yuan or 0.65% to 78,410 yuan per ton, although the weekly performance still showed a decline of 0.28% [1] - Other metals on the LME also experienced price increases, with tin rising by 0.68% to $33,240 per ton, zinc by 0.42% to $2,748.5 per ton, and lead by 0.2% to $1,977 per ton [2] - The Shanghai metal market showed significant gains in tin, zinc, and nickel, with tin rising by 2,800 yuan or 1.07% to 264,540 yuan per ton, and nickel increasing by 870 yuan or 0.73% to 120,500 yuan per ton [3]

Group 1 - BHP Group reported record high production of iron ore and copper for the fiscal year, demonstrating the company's operational strength and resilience amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The company produced over 2 million tons of copper, with significant contributions from the Escondida copper mine in Chile, which reached its highest output in 17 years [1][2] - BHP's total copper production for the fiscal year was 2.0167 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year's 1.865 million tons [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for global commodities remains resilient, driven by renewable energy investments, grid construction, strong machinery exports, and electric vehicle sales [2] - Despite potential economic slowdowns and trade tensions, stimulus measures from China and the U.S. are expected to mitigate short-term impacts on demand [2] - BHP's fourth-quarter copper production was 516,200 tons, up from 510,800 tons in the previous quarter and 2.25% higher than the same quarter last year [2][3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31.50, or 0.33%, closing at $9,666.50 per ton on July 17, driven by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, overshadowing concerns over rising copper inventories and uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs [1][3] - The available copper inventory on the LME has surged by 70% since the announcement of U.S. copper tariffs, reaching 110,950 tons, the highest level since April 30, alleviating supply concerns [3] - The current spot copper price has shifted to a discount of $53 per ton compared to the three-month futures, a significant change from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [4] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, which has improved confidence in copper, widely used in electricity and construction [3] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 is projected to be 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [4] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with the market awaiting confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the list of copper products subject to tariffs, leading to speculation that major copper-producing countries may receive exemptions [4]

对于后市，金源期货评论表示，解雇鲍威尔传闻一度刺激降息预期大涨，但随后特朗普否认，美元盘中 波动剧烈，先抑后扬，锡价走势受扰动。基本面变化有限，缅甸锡矿预计8月会有体现但量级尚小，供 应端维持强现实弱预期，消费淡季不变，即期基本面有支撑，中长期边际走弱。短期锡价走势受宏观指 引，维持宽幅震荡。 （文华综合） 隔夜受宏观情绪影响，伦锡盘中短暂跳水后收复跌幅。今日沪锡偏弱震荡，主力合约收跌0.59%，报收 261920元/吨。近期佤邦会议重新讨论复产情况和后续发展内容，短期内锡矿供应恢复稍有预期，当前 处于消费淡季，整体需求较为疲软，基本面供需双弱，锡价维持震荡格局。 近几个月来，由于许可费上涨成为一大障碍，缅甸锡矿复产进展有限，但据国际锡业协会了解到，几家 运营商现已获得为期三年的采矿许可证，预计未来数月缅甸佤邦锡矿发运将恢复。缅甸佤邦虽重启采矿 证审批，但实际出矿需至2025Q4，据SMM当前云南冶炼厂原料库存周转天数不足25天，部分企业维持 减产。受原料短缺和雨季影响，个旧等地区冶炼厂进入季节性检修或梯度减产状态，周度开工率进一步 下滑。虽有个别企业通过前期囤货暂缓压力，但下游接单低迷导致成品出货困难，形成 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger dollar and rising copper inventories in LME Asian warehouses [1] - As of July 17, LME three-month copper fell by 0.32% to $9,604 per ton, retreating from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton earlier in July [1] - Copper previously planned for shipment to the U.S. is being redirected back to the LME system due to a 50% import tariff announced by the U.S. effective August 1 [1] Group 2 - The increase in LME copper inventories alleviated concerns about recent supply shortages, reflected in the widening discount of spot copper contracts compared to three-month forward contracts, which expanded to $64.5 per ton from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [1] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 was reported at 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, up 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Other LME metal prices showed mixed performance, with three-month tin stable at $32,785 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and aluminum experienced declines of 0.26%, 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.43% respectively [2]