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理想汽车如何“跨越鸿沟”?
数说新能源· 2025-09-10 03:01
鸿沟期:在早期使用者与早期大众期间存在一条很宽的鸿沟,很多公司基于早期使用者的反馈与喜好,继续为大众市场打造自己的产品,然后陷入了 自嗨与困惑,无法继续提升自己的市占率,换电今天实际上就处于这个状态,所以蔚来的销量很长时间徘徊在月销两万。这条鸿沟是创业公司最容易 陷入困局的地方,也是最危险的地方。 一、理想汽车与跨越鸿沟理论 简单来说,该理论想表达的是,任何一个新事物,在被主流市场接受之前,都要经历几个阶段: 10-100: 这里分为早期大众和晚期大众阶段。进入大众市场之后,客户对你的要求会更加苛刻,他们总是希望你每个方面都做到最好,同时他们只 会买市场上销量最好的或让他们有安全感的品牌或产品。 一个企业在穿越鸿沟的阶段中,0-1常常是亏损的,1-10开始盈亏平衡,利润的释放一般发生在进入主流市场的10-100阶段。 理想ONE定义了一个新品类,大电池增程+三排六座+星环灯+车内四屏交互,是理想汽车增程系列0-1的阶段。 0-1: 你面对的人群是一些创新者,他们对新事物接受程度非常高,愿意试用一切不完善的新技术、新功能;在这个阶段,你的产品不用尽善尽美, 但要足够新或差异化,客户对你缺点的容忍度极高。 1-1 ...
8月乘用车市场分析
数说新能源· 2025-09-10 03:01
一、总体市场表现 零售销量 8月全国乘用车零售199.5万辆,同比增长4.6%,环比增长8.2%,再创同期历史新高,较2023年8月增长3.7%。1-8月累计零售1474.1万辆,同比增长9.5%。 批发销量 8月批发销量245.8万辆,同比增长14.5%,环比增长9.6%,创当月历史新高。1-8月累计批发1801.9万辆,同比增长13.0%。 出口情况 8月乘用车出口49.9万辆,同比增长20.2%,环比增长3.1%。新能源车占出口总量41.3%,同比增长17个百分点。 二、新能源市场表现 零售销量 8月新能源乘用车零售110.1万辆,同比增长7.5%,环比增长11.6%。渗透率达55.2%,创历史新高。其中,纯电动销量68.6万辆,同比增长17.2%;插混销量31.4万 辆,同比下降7.3%。 批发销量 8月新能源乘用车批发128.2万辆,同比增长22.3%。纯电动批发销量81.5万辆,同比增长38.5%;插混销量36.8万辆,同比增长5.0%;增程式销量9.9万辆,同比下降 9.5%。 三、细分市场亮点 轿车市场 吉利星愿 :同比增长295%至4.6万辆,成为销量冠军。 宏光MINI :同比增长43.0 ...
新车上市 | 领克10 em-p正式上市
数说新能源· 2025-09-09 03:29
1、新车定价具有竞争力。次顶配选装4000元后排SPA包,即可实现续航(240km)、舒适性配置(拥有后排通风加热按摩与冰箱)、智驾(浩瀚 H7)、智能化、驾控(四驱)的全面大满贯,售价为18.98万元,相对奇瑞风云A9L伯牙版(17.29万),其舒适性配置领先并拥有四驱、智驾,虽然更贵但性价比仍 是领先的。虽然其性价比仍较高,但并非原有银河品牌或领克900的断崖式领先,18.98万的价格事实上已经不低,或超出原有消费者群体承受能力,故正式上市后销 量仍有待观望,综合来看新车性价比更类似小鹏P7+, 预计其月销在3000-5000台 左右、超预期情形下在5000台以上,领克后续月销量有望破3万。 2、新车周期到来,后续销量市占率提升高度确定。17日公司银河M9将上市;9月底极氪9X也将上市,两款新车小订表现均火爆: 银河 M9上市后1天小订破4万, 极氪9X至8月31日小订数量已破5万 。虽然目前车企小订大定呈现膨胀态势,参考价值逐渐减弱,但综合来看:1)银河M9正式上市降价后 性价比或较高,存在月销破万的能力。2)极氪9X目前市场预期较低,对其小订数量质疑声较大,但若月销突破5000辆,则仍是超预期的,届时 ...
周度销量 | 9.1-9.7
数说新能源· 2025-09-09 03:29
如果需要加入新能源汽车市场研究群,请加小编微信 群聊: 新能源汽车市场讨论-数说 新能源 该二维码7天内(9月16日前)有效,重新进入将更新 主机厂电芯采购:兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海:发力东南亚 加入社群 添加半仙微信,备注"进群",邀请你加入锂电行业社群,获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 期推荐 往 :储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载,转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有,如有涉及侵权请及时告知,我们将予以核实并删除。 CATL ...
蔚来三代ES8的三个问题
数说新能源· 2025-09-08 03:45
第一个问题,新 ES8 如何做到比现款便宜 8 万? 现款 ES8 价格是 49.8-57.8 万元,新 ES8 预售价是 41.68-45.68 万元,两者价格门槛相差 8.12 万元,BaaS 模式最低只要 30.88 万元。 价格调整的背后,是蔚来刀刃向内的成本控制。 蔚来第一代 ES8: 车身架构 第一代 ES8 用料相当扎实,比如 5 年前首发的国内自研全铝车身架构,铝合金占比超过了 97%,而业内铝合金压铸件用量占比通常在 80% 左右,尊界 S800 铝合金占 比是 92%。 用李斌的话来说,第一代 ES8 光是车身架构,就比其他家整台车贵。 据了解,第一代 ES8 的起售价 44.8 万元,但 BOM(物料清单)成本接近 40 万元。 这种不计成本的用料理念,一直延续到了第二代 ES8。 蔚来第二代 ES8 本质上,第二代 ES8 切换到 NT2.0 平台仍在做加法,全系标配 33 个感知硬件、四颗 Orin X 芯片,采用双腔空气悬架+CDC 动态阻尼控制系统,价格也从原来的 44.8 万元涨到了 49.6 万元。 李斌表示,第一代 ES8 在补贴下实际约为 40 万元,而第二代 ES8 在 ...
问界汽车调研
数说新能源· 2025-09-08 03:45
问 :请问所在门店 7到8月9以及九月第一周的一个进店量、交付量 ,以及新增的订单量 ,还 有同环比的一些变化 ? 答 : 7月份进店量是1684条线 索, 交付量 395台, 新增订单 117张 ; 8月份进店量2566条, 交付 量 430台, 新增订单 157张 ; 9月份第一周进店量764 条, 交付量 60台, 当前订单约 70台。 从七月到八 月, 进店量、交付量和订单量都有所上升,九月第一周的数据也表现良好。 问 :在新款 M7上市后 ,对其他车型有没有影响 ? 答 :新款 M7上市对其他车型如M8的影响不大,各车型的订单量仍在持续走高。特别是M8, 其 订单量占据较大比例, 且 8月份以来整体进店量、交付量和订单量环比均在提升。 问 :针对 M8的交付情况 ,是否有一些补偿政策 ? 答 :对于 M8, 虽然未在官方大力宣传,但对于超期用户提供了 200元/天的关怀补贴,但实际上 支付补贴的用户较少。目前来看,赛力斯工厂产能没有问题, 大部分情况下能按照官宣的交 付口径执 行。 问 :目前现存的几款车型( M5、M7、M8增程和纯电、M9 )整体的交付周期是怎样的 ? 答 : M5和M7的交付周 ...
第35周交付:理想持续回暖
数说新能源· 2025-09-05 08:12
Overall Analysis - The total delivery of passenger cars reached 524,000 units from August 25 to August 31, representing a month-on-month increase of 9.47%. New energy vehicles accounted for 289,000 units, with a month-on-month growth of 8.11%, resulting in a penetration rate of 55.21%. The overall delivery across brands showed significant improvement, with the top eight brands each delivering over 10,000 units, indicating a clear trend of end-of-month push for sales. The upcoming Chengdu Auto Show is expected to boost the new energy vehicle market in September with the introduction of new products [1]. Brand-Specific Analysis - **BYD**: The Ocean and Dynasty series delivered 69,400 units this week, with the two series accounting for 92.1% of total sales. The company has adjusted its annual sales target from 5.5 million to 4.6 million, indicating pressure to break through in higher-end segments. The delivery of the Haiyan 06 EV+DMI reached 6,700 units, an increase of nearly 1,000 units compared to the previous week [3][4][5]. - **Geely**: Total deliveries reached 37,000 units, the highest in the past five weeks. The Lynk & Co brand has improved its smart driving and cockpit capabilities, with the Lynk 900 model delivering 1,600 units. The Lynk 08 EM-P has maintained good sales since its launch, with weekly deliveries around 1,000 units [6][7]. - **Li Auto**: The company delivered 8,400 units this week, a significant increase of nearly 3,000 units compared to the previous week, driven by the ramp-up of i8 deliveries and increased sales of the MEGA model [8]. - **NIO**: The ET5T model saw deliveries of 1,280 units this week, while the ES6 and ET5 models also showed stable performance [9]. - **Xpeng**: The company delivered 8,400 units this week, with the new P7 model delivering 380 units in just four days, indicating a stable performance [10]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles remains stable between 55% and 57%, while traditional fuel vehicles continue to struggle [1]. - The introduction of new models and upgrades from various brands is expected to enhance competition and drive sales in the upcoming months [6][7]. Supply Chain Insights - BYD is focusing on balancing performance and cost in its battery cell procurement strategy, while CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market, which is outpacing the growth in the power battery sector [13].
比亚迪
数说新能源· 2025-09-05 08:12
1、基础盘:新车发布延后,以技术升级取代降价 年内暂停发布新车,全力备战26年新车,避免老车型库存积压和"背刺"消费者。 针对外观内饰等设计滞 后问题,加速优化以及匹配年轻化需求。 2、高端化:聚焦定位纠偏,稳定品牌势能 从人事调整,到定位聚焦,腾势摒弃过去"宜商宜家,可城可野"的思路,推动D9成功经验向其他车型迁移。 针 对高端车型价格波动问题,未来严格保持价格稳定。 方程豹品牌凭借清晰定位,维持良好势能。 3、出海:押注增长引擎,扩大全球份额 海外已成为核心利润与增长来源,主要市场销量表现:巴西月销 1 万 + 台(全品牌排名第 6),土耳其月销 7- 8k、英国月销6-7k,墨西哥月销6-7k,印尼月销 2-3k。 25年海外销量目标 95 万台,26年计划160万台以上。 期推荐 往 主机厂电芯采购:兼顾性能和成本 本公众号基于分享的目的转载,转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有,如有涉及侵权请及时告知,我们将予以核实并删除。 加入社群 CATL 添加半仙微信,备注"进群",邀请你加入锂电行业社群,获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 :储能市场增长高于动力 比亚迪出海:发力东南亚 ...
问界M7价格猜测
数说新能源· 2025-09-04 07:58
Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming pre-sale of the new AITO M7, which is positioned as a flagship SUV and is highly anticipated by consumers, especially following the success of the AITO brand with the Wanjie model priced at 300,000 [1] - The article encourages readers to participate in a price guessing game for the M7's starting price, indicating the model's significance in the market [1] - There is an invitation for interested parties to join a discussion group focused on the M7, suggesting a community engagement aspect around the product launch [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a database related to new energy vehicles, which includes sales data and estimates for battery installation capacity, indicating a focus on the electric vehicle market [5] - The database is updated monthly, providing timely information on various brands and models, which could be valuable for market analysis [5]
动力电池装机
数说新能源· 2025-09-03 03:03
Total Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, global power battery installation reached 503 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37.8% The projected annual installation volumes for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1154 GWh, 1418 GWh, and 1708 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.5%, 22.8%, and 20.5% [1] Regional Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, power battery installations in China, Europe, North America, and other regions were 295 GWh, 106 GWh, 65 GWh, and 37 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.6%, 31.5%, 7.5%, and 48.8% Emerging markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines showed higher growth rates It is expected that the total annual installations for 2025 will be 704 GWh in China, 223 GWh in Europe, 144 GWh in North America, and 82 GWh in other regions, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, 28.9%, 8.27%, and 39.0% [1] Battery Capacity per Vehicle - In the BEV market for the first half of 2025, the average battery capacity per vehicle in North America, Europe, and China was 89.2 KWh, 70.5 KWh, and 62.9 KWh, respectively, showing increases of 4.6 KWh, -0.1 KWh, and 1.8 KWh compared to the average values in 2024 [3] - In the PHEV market, the average battery capacity per vehicle in China was 26.0 KWh, an increase of 1.8 KWh compared to the 2024 average, while North America and Europe had lower capacities than China [3] Market Share Analysis - In the Chinese market, CATL's market share for the first and second quarters of 2025 was 45.0% and 42.7%, respectively, compared to 46.6%, 44.3%, and 45.4% in the previous years [3] - In the European market, CATL's market share increased from 29.0% in 2022 to 44.0% in the second quarter of 2025 [3] - In North America, the top three companies in the second quarter of 2025 were Panasonic, LGES, and SDI, with CATL ranking fourth [3] - In Asia and other markets, BYD, CATL, and LGES ranked first, second, and third in the second quarter of 2025, with market shares of 27.4%, 22.3%, and 15.8%, respectively [3]