理想首先将重头资源押在了新一代 L9 上，销量预测超 10 万。 新款 L9 造型采用全新设计，尺寸加大，底盘升级，电池超 70 度，纯电续航超 400 公里。 自研芯片 M100 上车，座舱芯片升级 8797，前排屏幕升级大连屏。 换代的理想 L9 电池在 70 度以上，L6 为 45 度电池，相比友商直接上到 80 度的做法，理想明显保守一些。 理想核心高管在去年三季度财报后的一次小范围投资者交流中表示： 「现在（增程电池）和纯电车一样 600 km 纯电续航，这个我们认为是不对的，电池重量太大会对道路基础设施 有压力，会回归到一个平衡；但短期一定会去跟进的。 我们（2026 年）的换代就是要拿回我们增程领先的位置。 我们 20 万以上的市占率肯定没法回到 2022年、2023 年 40%+了，只能说 2026 年是市占率回到领先位置。」 理想 i8 每月新增订单千余个；MEGA 月销量下滑至不足 1000 辆。2026 年大概率仅有一款全新纯电 SUV。 市场消息预测，理想已经为 2026 年初步制定了约 40% 的增长计划，也即对应约 55 万辆销量（去年约 41 万 辆）。 理想的销售体系调整也还在 ...

Market Analysis - Battery production has shown limited fluctuations this week, with the export tax rebate policy impacting energy storage and overseas ternary battery cell customers significantly. However, energy storage production lines are nearly at full capacity, leading to limited incremental production. The expectation is to maximize output and minimize holiday disruptions, while raw material prices continue to rise, resulting in increased prices for battery cells [1] New Energy Vehicles - According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from January 1 to November 11, 2026, retail sales in the passenger car market reached 328,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year and down 67% compared to the previous month, with a penetration rate of 35.5% for new energy vehicles. In 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 16.626 million and 16.49 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of total new car sales, with domestic sales of 13.875 million units, up 19.8% year-on-year, and domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles at 13.005 million units, up 17.7% year-on-year. New energy commercial vehicle sales reached 871,000 units, up 63.7% year-on-year. Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 2.615 million units, doubling year-on-year, with passenger vehicle exports at 2.532 million units, also doubling year-on-year, and commercial vehicle exports at 83,000 units, up 86.8% year-on-year [2] Energy Storage - This week, domestic energy storage cell prices have increased. Most energy storage cell manufacturers, except for a leading company, have raised their product prices. Following the price increase, the willingness of downstream customers to place orders has decreased, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. The market is currently in a stocking phase. Recent integrated pricing has not seen significant increases, and Company C maintains a high operating rate. The demand for data centers in the U.S. is expected to be between 20-30 GWh this year, indicating a good demand for energy storage. In the ten days leading up to a recent bidding event, 30 GWh was tendered, reflecting a very strong market outlook for the first quarter domestically [3] News (Including Rumors) - CATL holds a domestic market share of approximately 46% and an overseas market share of about 43%. It is expected that after the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate, CATL's overseas market share could increase by 1-2%. The commercial prospects for sodium batteries in recent years have been generally poor, and CATL has not engaged in large-scale procurement of related materials, primarily due to the economic inefficiency and lower energy density compared to lithium batteries. According to the milestone planning for solid-state battery R&D projects, clear equipment procurement demands and bidding actions are not expected until around the first half of 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng X9 Super Range Extender is positioned as the first MPV for young families, appealing to a diverse demographic including younger generations and women [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features and Market Positioning - Xiaopeng X9 Super Range Extender features six core product strengths: starship design, active rear-wheel steering, assisted driving, three rows of electric folding seats, 1602 km ultra-long range, and ice and snow stability system, setting a new benchmark for high-end MPV travel experiences [3]. - The vehicle has successfully penetrated traditional MPV user demographics, attracting users across different ages, regions, and interests, including 90s and 00s families, female users, and tech enthusiasts [3][5]. Group 2: Sales Performance and Market Impact - In December 2025, Xiaopeng X9 delivered 5,424 units, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 289.1%, making it a standout performer in the MPV market [3]. - Nearly 80% of Xiaopeng X9 deliveries were to individual users, surpassing competitors by approximately 35 percentage points, and it became the top-selling high-end MPV for individual users [3][5]. Group 3: Demographics of Users - Among Xiaopeng X9 buyers, 57.2% are from the 90s generation and 13.7% from the 00s generation, indicating a significant youth trend as the average age of MPV users is 10 years older [7]. - Female ownership stands at 22%, highlighting the vehicle's appeal among family users, with a focus on stylish design and technology [9]. Group 4: User Preferences and Customization - 36.8% of users opted for personalized modifications like window tinting after purchase, reflecting a blend of family-oriented and individualistic vehicle usage [9].

Domestic Overview - In December, the production of domestic power and other batteries reached 201.7 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.1% and a month-on-month increase of 14.4%. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 40.6 GWh and 160.5 GWh, accounting for 20.1% and 79.5% respectively [1] - The installed capacity of domestic power batteries in December was 98.1 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.1% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9%. The installed capacity for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.2 GWh and 79.8 GWh, making up 18.6% and 81.3% respectively [2] - The top three companies in terms of installed capacity for domestic power batteries in December were CATL with 45.71 GWh (46.6%), BYD with 17.63 GWh (18.0%), and Zhongxin Innovation with 7 GWh (7.1%) [3] Annual Overview - From January to December, the cumulative production of domestic power and other batteries reached 1755.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%. The cumulative production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 347.6 GWh and 1405.1 GWh, accounting for 19.8% and 80.0% respectively [4] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to December was 769.7 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. The cumulative installed capacity for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 144.1 GWh and 625.3 GWh, representing 18.7% and 81.2% respectively [4] - The top three companies for cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to December were CATL with 333.57 GWh (43.3%), BYD with 165.77 GWh (21.5%), and Zhongxin Innovation with 53.61 GWh (7.0%) [4] Global Overview - In November, the global installed capacity of power batteries was 112.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 7.6% [5] - The top three companies in global installed capacity for November were CATL with 44.8 GWh (39.8%), BYD with 17.3 GWh (15.4%), and LG with 10.4 GWh (9.2%) [6] - From January to November, the cumulative global installed capacity of power batteries reached 1046.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [7] - The top three companies for cumulative global installed capacity from January to November were CATL with 400.0 GWh (38.2%), BYD with 175.2 GWh (16.7%), and LG with 96.9 GWh (9.3%) [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of negotiations and pricing for key materials in the lithium battery industry, highlighting the shift from traditional long-term contracts to more flexible, order-based pricing due to market volatility [2] Group 1: Progress and Pricing of Key Materials - Negotiations for most materials for 2026 are not yet locked, with discussions expected to intensify around the Chinese New Year. Currently, only the price for lithium hexafluorophosphate is confirmed at 150,000 yuan/ton [3][5] - Major suppliers include Tianqi Lithium, Tianji, and others, with a general price increase demand of about 10%-15% or higher from suppliers across the board [5] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen to approximately 160,000 yuan/ton, while electrolyte prices have surged from about 19,000 yuan/ton to around 60,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 2: Changes in Procurement Models - The traditional "annual bidding" model is no longer viable, with most transactions shifting to spot or short-term agreements due to frequent price fluctuations [5] - The procurement cycle is now aligned with the Chinese New Year, with current production still using prices from the previous cycle [6] Group 3: CATL's Operations and Supply Chain - CATL has a strong ability to absorb and pass on cost increases due to its strategic investments in key material companies and production efficiency improvements [6] - The company has not implemented a blanket price increase for major clients but is focusing on maintaining market share through a responsive pricing mechanism [5][6] Group 4: Product Pricing and Market Outlook - The production plan for Q1 2026 is approximately 229 GWh, slightly down from 249 GWh in Q4 2025, with expectations of a potential recovery in February [6] - The expected revenue per watt-hour is estimated at around 0.6 yuan, with material prices anticipated to rise throughout the year, provided demand remains stable [6][7] - CATL's cost absorption capability is enhanced through production efficiency improvements, allowing it to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs [7]

Overall Situation - In December 2025, China's passenger car terminal sales reached 2.278 million units, a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [1] - New energy passenger car sales totaled 1.334 million units in November 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 9.0% [1] - Breakdown of new energy vehicle sales: pure electric vehicles sold 781,000 units (up 0.9%), plug-in hybrids sold 412,000 units (up 23%), and range-extended vehicles sold 142,000 units (up 24.6%) [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 57.4% in December, slightly down from 60.1% in the previous month [1] - Total new energy passenger car sales for 2025 are projected at 12.338 million units, a 15% increase from 10.744 million units in 2024 [1] - The annual penetration rate for new energy vehicles in 2025 is expected to be 53.4%, marking the first time it exceeds 50% [1] Automotive Market Overview - The expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption has led to outstanding performance in new energy terminal retail, achieving a historical high [3] - Despite the expected year-end buying spree due to the tax exemption, many provinces have exhausted their budgets for trade-in policies, creating a counteracting effect on purchase incentives [3] Brand Rankings - The top-selling pure electric models in December 2025 include Tesla Model Y (500,000 units), Star Wish (400,000 units), and Xiaomi YU7 (390,000 units) [6][7] - The top-selling plug-in hybrid models include BYD Qin PLUS (360,000 units), Titanium 7 (310,000 units), and BYD Song Pro (170,000 units) [8][9] - The top-selling range-extended models include Aion M7 (123,000 units), Ideal L6 (93,000 units), and Aion M8 (82,000 units) [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights advancements in battery technology, including the introduction of new charging technologies and battery products, which are expected to enhance the performance and efficiency of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Group 1: New Technologies and Products - The 3.5 generation ion oscillation pulse charging technology reduces full charge time by 25% compared to the second generation, with no additional cost increase, and is planned for mass production in Q3 2026 [1] - The large-capacity HEV power battery has a cell capacity of 10.8Ah, the largest globally, supporting 62C pulse discharge and 47C pulse charging, with a cycle life exceeding 40,000 times and energy coverage from 3.6 to 7.3kWh, with the first product set to launch in Q3 2026 [1] - Five new battery products have been announced, including a clear semi-solid technology route with a dedicated production line of 2.3GWh, and the first generation of 270Wh/kg cells entering sample production, with mass production ramp-up expected in 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - Honeycomb Energy announced its first quarterly profit is expected in Q4 2025, marking a significant operational turning point [1] - The article notes that the energy storage market is growing faster than the power market, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]

1、2026年产品规划 往期推荐 2026H1： 为大多数现有车型推出增程式电动车(REEV)版本:基于X9平台推出一款新SUV。 2026H2: 推出新的纯电动车(BEV):MONA小型SUV将首次亮相，同时推出现有MONA M03轿车的改款。 产品策略: 所有REEV车型计划采用大电池解决方案:目标是实现BEV和REEV产品的均衡组合。 2、海外扩张 目标:预计国际销量增速将大幅快于国内，目标到2026年海外市场收入占总收入超过20%。 本地化生产:奥地利本地化生产预计将缩短交付时间并降低税费，进一步改善利润率。 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 CATL ： 储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 ...

要点一：政策支持与行业信心提振 1. 工信部最新文件重申加快全固态电池及车端技术落地，明确国家支持立场，消除市场对项目推进的质疑。 2. 国家对固态电池项目的持续支持将确保项目验收和第二批企业支持不受影响，板块贝塔属性增强。 2. 26年全固态上车测试带动车载加压设备需求 3. 政策表态被视为重要催化剂，提振市场信心，此前板块因位置低和进展超预期已具备投资价值。 要点二：太空领域应用拓展 1. 日本与NASA等机构在太空环境中对全固态电池的测试显示高稳定性和低衰减，容量保持率超80%，表现 超预期。 2. 太空应用场景（如卫星供电）因固态电池的高能量密度和可靠性优势具备长期前景，代表重要方向。 3. 太空算力需求带动光伏发电，而固态电池作为储能装置可解决卫星背光阶段的供电问题。 要点三：2026年产业化方向 1. 2026年核心方向为固态电池上车，分两个阶段：年初产线招标放大和全固态电池量产过渡。 2. 技术需解决加压优化（材料掺杂、硫化物应用）和车载压力传导问题 要点四：固态设备招标 1. Q1头部电池厂（宁德时代、比亚迪等）将启动固态产线招标，单线规模预计达0.5G瓦时以上，设备 规格需提升。 往期推荐 ...

Group 1 - The core event is that Rongbai has secured a significant contract with CATL to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from Q1 2026 to 2031, with a total sales value exceeding 120 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Rongbai has developed a black technology for lithium iron phosphate, reducing the traditional 14-15 processing steps to 6, resulting in a 40% reduction in investment costs and a 30% decrease in energy consumption, achieving performance levels comparable to fourth and fifth generation technologies [2] Group 3 - Cost reduction measures include: - Capacity planning utilizing two existing plants in Guizhou, aiming to expand production to 600,000 tons by the end of 2026 and 1 million tons by the end of 2027, with a focus on short process flows and high equipment density for rapid and low-cost expansion [3] Group 4 - Specific cost reduction initiatives involve: 1) Collaboration with Guizhou Steel to utilize low-grade iron and steel for production [5] 2) Partnering with a base to source phosphate and introduce phosphate chemical enterprises, targeting a future production of 1 million tons of phosphate [5] 3) Incorporating natural gas and green electricity as cost-saving measures [5] 4) Utilizing wet processing for lithium purification from low-grade salt lake lithium carbonate [5] Group 5 - The procurement strategy for battery cells by major manufacturers balances performance and cost considerations [8] - BYD is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia [8] Group 6 - CATL is experiencing growth in the energy storage market that exceeds that of the power market [11]