根据2026年2月1-2日各大车企发布的最新数据，2026年1月中国汽车市场销量排行如下： 车企集团销量排行（TOP 5） | 排名 | 车企集团 | 1月销量 | 同比变化 | 主要亮点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 吉利汽车集团 | 270,167辆 | +1% | 海外出口60,506辆，同比翻倍；新能源124,252辆 | | 2 | 比亚迪 | 210,051辆 | -30.11% | 出口100,482辆，同比+51.47%，蝉联新能源冠军 | | 3 | 奇瑞集团 | 200,269辆 | -10.72% | 出口11.96万辆，同比+48.1%，出口占比近60% | | 4 | 广汽集团 | 116,622辆 | +18.47% | 自主品牌超4.9万辆，同比+87.58% | | 5 | 长城汽车 | 90,312辆 | +11.59% | 海外销量40,278辆，同比+43.77% | | | 🚀 造车新势力销量排行（TOP 10） | | | | 排名 品牌 1月销量 同比变化 备注 1 问界（AITO） 40,016辆 +83% 鸿蒙智 ...

LG新能源2025Q4 财务数据 - 收入&毛利： 25Q4实现收入299亿元，同比-4.79%，环比+7.75%；毛利率12.55%，同比+4.31pcts，环比-12.83pcts - 营业利润： 25Q4实现营业利润-5.9亿元，同比减亏，环比亏损扩大，对应营业利润率-2.0%。25Q4 AMPC制造业补贴贡献 12.6亿元，环比-9.02%，剔除补贴影响，实际25Q4营业利润约-22.4亿元，对应营业利润率-7.4%，同比+1.9pcts，环 比-11.5pcts - 影响分析： 1）收入环比略增，主要系尽管美国电动汽车补贴终止，车企年末库存调整，动力电池销量减少，但北美储能业 务收入显著增长、客户对圆柱电池需求增长。2）25Q4利润亏损，主要系北美电动汽车放缓，产品结构恶化，新增储能产线 前期运营成本较高 市场展望 - 电动车需求： 预计2026年全球电动车（EV+PHEV）销量同比+18% - 北美电池需求： 预计2026年整体接近200GWh需求，其中储能占比约50%达到100GWh - 储能装机需求： 预计2026年全球储能装机增速同比+40% - 储能应用：2025年北美储能需求96%应用于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite underperforming sales in January 2026, the pure electric vehicle market is expected to achieve a 20% year-on-year growth, with high-end electric vehicles priced over 300,000 yuan continuing to outperform the overall industry [1] Group 1: Sales and Financial Performance - The management anticipates that the cost per vehicle will increase by up to 5,000 yuan due to rising prices of copper, aluminum, lithium, and dynamic random-access memory [1] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40%-50% in delivery volume over the next two years, projecting deliveries to reach between 456,000 and 489,000 vehicles in 2026, supported by new models like ES9, ES7, and L80 [1] - The ES9 model is expected to be a key profit driver, with a price exceeding 500,000 yuan and a potential profit per vehicle surpassing 100,000 yuan, competing with models like BMW X5 and Mercedes GLE [1] Group 2: Long-term Strategic Planning - The company plans to launch 2-3 models under the Le Dao brand priced between 150,000 and 200,000 yuan, targeting a market share of 8%-10% in this price range [2] - The subscription model for battery rental services is seen as a way to reach potential customers in the sub-150,000 yuan segment [2] - Enhancing the brand awareness and sales efficiency of the Le Dao brand is identified as a core task in the short term [2] Group 3: Autonomous Driving Business Layout - The company is focused on regaining its leading position in China's autonomous driving sector, leveraging self-developed world models, reinforcement learning models, and the Shenji chip [3] - There is optimism regarding the long-term commercialization of the company's autonomous driving software [3] - The company is also exploring the possibility of external sales of its autonomous driving chips [3]

Core Insights - Lantu Motors announced a new product plan on January 28, 2026, introducing four new models under the "Three Kings and One Bomb" product lineup, covering the SUV, FUV, and MPV segments, with all models equipped with L3-level intelligent driving hardware [1] Group 1: New Models Overview - Lantu Taisan Ultra is China's first mass-produced L3-level SUV, featuring Huawei's Qian Kun intelligent driving ADS 4 with four LiDAR systems, and is set to begin deliveries in March 2026 [1] - Lantu Taisan X8 is positioned as a "courtyard-level large five-seat SUV," with dimensions of 5200×2025×1814mm, focusing on family space experience, and is expected to launch in the first half of 2026 [3] - Lantu FE (code name) is a smart pure electric FUV aimed at a youthful design, described as a "Ferrari equipped with four LiDARs," featuring L3-level intelligent driving hardware and AI interactive cockpit, expected to launch in mid-2026 [3] - Lantu Everest (code name) is a luxury MPV priced at 500,000, positioned as a "technology bomb," set to globally debut 12 black technologies, including the first MPV with L3 autonomous driving and a "super magic carpet" suspension system, expected to launch in the second half of 2026 [3]

Production - The S/X production line will cease next quarter, with the Fremont factory being converted to produce 1 million Optimus robots annually [1] - Future vehicle models will be designed for full autonomy, eliminating steering wheels and pedals [1] FSD and Robotaxi - Tesla has launched a paid, driverless Robotaxi service in Austin, with over 500 operational vehicles in the Bay Area and Austin, experiencing exponential monthly growth [1][32] - FSD coverage is expected to reach 25-50% of the U.S. by year-end, pending regulatory approval [1][31] - Nearly 1.1 million FSD users exist, with 70% opting for a one-time purchase; the transition to a subscription model will impact automotive gross margins in the short term [1][12] Chips - Elon Musk is dedicating significant time to the AI5 chip, which is currently a core bottleneck for Tesla; the AI6 chip is expected to launch within a year [1][33] - The company plans to build its own TerraFab facility to mitigate geopolitical risks associated with chip production [1][33] Optimus - Optimus 3 will be released in a few months, showcasing advanced capabilities such as learning new tasks through observation, voice, and video [1][28] - Production of Optimus robots will begin this year, with significant output expected by year-end [1][11] Energy Storage - Tesla plans to launch Megapack 3 and Megablock by 2026, anticipating continued global deployment growth [2] - The company is significantly increasing capital expenditures, projected to exceed $20 billion for six major factories and AI capabilities [2][19] Financial Overview - Tesla's cash and investments exceed $44 billion, with plans to utilize internal funds initially [2][20] - The company aims for a record annual revenue of $12.8 billion from energy storage by 2025, reflecting a 26.6% year-over-year increase [11][13] Market Competition - China is identified as a strong competitor in manufacturing and AI, often underestimated by external observers [3][40] Company Mission - Tesla's mission has been updated to "Amazing Abundance," reflecting optimism for a future of universal high income rather than basic income [4][5] - The company aims to enhance safety and reduce costs while ensuring environmental protection and access to quality healthcare [5]

1 、 很多人都很担心新能源汽车行业会不会光伏化 ， 内卷永无止境 ？ 新能源乘用车20万以下会光伏化 ， 20万以上会和智能手机的格局走势类似 。 这里面的原因有以下几点 ： （ 1 ） 20万以下 ， 智能化在这个价位主流消费者购买决策中排名更靠后 。 这并不是说这个区间的消费者不想要智能化 ， 而是智能化的成本 （ 举个例子包括激光雷达 、 大算力芯片 、 研发投入摊销等等两万人民币 ） 占车价超过10％ ， 这个比例 太高了 ， 这个价位主流的消费者宁愿选择便宜一两万 。 这也是尚界第一款车失败的原因之一 。 因此20万以下的竞争会更接 近光伏化内卷竞争 ， 完全比硬件 、 比价格 ， 没有任何一项投入可以获得边际成本递减效应 。 （ 2 ） 20万以上有很多投入可以获得边际成本递减效应 ， 比如品牌 、 智能驾驶 、 智能座舱 。 消费者买一辆20万以上的车 ， 价格是很重要的考虑因素 ， 但不是唯一重要的了 ， 他要综合考虑品牌 、 体验 、 智能化升级空间等等 。 厂家对品牌建 设 、 AI团队的投入 ， 第一是有门槛的 ， 第二是无形资产 ， 第三在卖车的时候又是消费者重点决策因素 。 这里面 ...

一、 行业背景与趋势 二、 近期密集催化：聚焦北美进展 报告认为过去两周，Robotaxi领域迎来了非常密集的催化，尤其在北美地区进展迅速。主 要体现在 法规 和 运营 两个层面： 1. 法规层面：美国《2026年自动驾驶法案》（草案）的积极进展 2. 运营层面：特斯拉Robotaxi实现"无安全员"运营里程碑 三、 后续影响与连锁反应 1. 对特斯拉自身的直接影响： 2. 对国内产业链的深远影响： 1. 基本面支撑：L2级城市领航辅助驾驶（NOA）的渗透率仍在快速提升，预计全年增长率（YY）超过50%，为整个智能 驾驶板块提供了稳定的基本盘。 2. 长期方向：无论是技术迭代还是法规进展，都明确指向行业向高阶自动驾驶（L3/L4）演进。 事件：美国众议院于1月13日举行了相关听证会，审查包括《2026年自动驾驶法案》在内的草案。 核心影响（两点）： 量产豁免上限大幅提高：法案计划将不符合传统机动车要求（如无方向盘、刹车踏板）的车辆的年度部署豁免上 限，从现行的 2,500辆大幅提升至9万辆 。这对于特斯拉计划中不配备方向盘的 "Cybercab"车型 的量产和大规模上 路至关重要，能极大提高车内空间利用率。 ...

Price Conclusion - The market remains bullish, with prices rising from 90,000 to nearly 190,000. The IRR for energy storage projects in northern regions has decreased from 9% to 6%. Further price increases could lead to a decline in IRR, but this may not impact prices significantly [1]. Balance Sheet Update - Initially, a surplus of 30,000 to 50,000 tons was expected in 2025, but adjustments indicate a tight balance for the entire year. The balance sheet for 2026-2030 has been revised to show deficits of -15,000, -6,000, -89,000, -189,000, and -440,000 tons respectively [1]. Supply - Overall data indicates that resource supply will reach 2.05 to 2.06 million tons in 2026, an increase of 413,000 tons from 2025. Lithium salt supply is projected to rise from 1.54 million tons to 1.91 million tons, an increase of 370,000 to 380,000 tons. The main contributors to this growth include the commissioning of the first phase of the Greenbushes project in Australia and the ramp-up of various salt lake projects [2]. - In 2026, lithium spodumene is expected to contribute an increase of 230,000 tons, with Africa contributing 140,000 tons, Australia 43,000 tons, and China 49,000 tons. Lithium mica is projected to add 38,000 tons, with specific contributions from various companies [2]. - A point of contention is Nigeria, where supply is expected to remain flat at around 500,000 tons of lithium concentrate, corresponding to 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with no incremental increase due to previously released inventory [2]. Demand - Domestic electric vehicle demand is expected to grow by 19% in 2026, covering both passenger and commercial vehicles, with projected sales of 16 million units in 2025. Each 1% increase in growth corresponds to an additional 160,000 vehicles and 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate [3]. - For electric heavy trucks, approximately 200,000 units are expected in 2025, with a forecast of 250,000 units in 2026. The battery capacity per vehicle may increase due to enhanced applications [3]. - Overseas electric vehicle markets, particularly Europe, are expected to grow by 20% in 2026, driven by subsidies in Germany, while the impact in the US and other markets is limited [4]. Energy Storage Demand - Actual shipments for 2025 are projected to be between 620-640 GWh, representing over 80% year-on-year growth. The forecast for 2026 has been revised from 880 GWh to a likely range of 900-950 GWh, with an aggressive scenario reaching up to 1,000 GWh. Domestic registered energy storage projects are expected to reach 1,200-1,300 GWh in the coming years [5]. Impact of Lithium Prices on Energy Storage - The sensitivity of IRR to lithium prices indicates that for every 50,000 increase in lithium price, the IRR for energy storage projects decreases by 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points. A price increase from 90,000 to 190,000 results in a 3 percentage point reduction in IRR. The central IRR for major northern projects has dropped from 9% to 6%, which remains viable, but further increases could delay projects if IRR falls below 6% [6].

# 电池 # 材料： 铁锂L：1月实际排2.3万吨，未减产；2月排1.8-2万吨，环比-17%，同比+46%。 铝箔D：2月排2万吨，环比-13%，同比+54%。 铜箔D：2月排1.2-1.3万吨，环比基本持平，同比+38%，产能紧缺，提前备货。 铜箔J：2月排1-1.1万吨，环比基本持平，同比+75%。 加入社群 往期推荐 C：2月排70gwh，环比-8%，同比40%。 B：2月排23.2gwh，环比-7%，同比+16%。 E：2月排12-13gwh，环比-12%，同比+74%。 G：1月实际排12gwh，环比-8%，2月排10gwh，环比-15%，同比67%。 R：2月排6.5-7gwh，环比-15%。 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 CATL ： 储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of mandatory safety standards for L3 autonomous driving is set to accelerate the commercialization and operationalization of L3 vehicles, with expectations for consumer sales by mid-2026 or early 2027 [5]. Group 1: Policy and Regulation - The national standard GB 44497-2024 will officially take effect on January 1, 2026, establishing mandatory safety standards for L3 autonomous driving [2]. - The first batch of L3 autonomous vehicle licenses has been issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, marking the beginning of L3 vehicles operating under regulatory approval [6]. Group 2: Market Development - Large-scale operations for L3 vehicles are set to commence on January 10, 2026, with initial deployments targeting B-end users such as ride-hailing services and corporate fleets [3][6]. - The testing scope for autonomous driving has expanded from initial locations like Beijing and Chongqing to multiple cities nationwide, allowing for more complex urban road scenarios [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The rapid advancement in L3 autonomous driving is exceeding market expectations, with predictions that consumer-ready L3 vehicles could be available by the second half of 2026 or early 2027 [5]. - The geographical coverage for testing has significantly increased, with multiple car manufacturers now qualified for testing across various urban environments, indicating a shift from simpler highway tests to more complex city driving scenarios [6].