1、近日山西贝特瑞（贝特瑞持股47%），上市公司外协企业。通知部分订单涨价2000~3000元，上市公司。目前负极行业整体产能利用率持续抬升，头部企业 订单饱满，据产业反馈，头部企业已实现给部分客户的涨价，预计给大客户的涨价在Q4落地。 2、目前头部负极公司均处于满产状态，并向外寻求外协产能。 3、锂电需求持续超预期，中游材料环节供需态势呈现逐步逆转的态势，负极等环节反馈价格调涨 半仙点评：负极这波涨价大概率是散单，大客户谈涨价的难度还是太大。 期推荐 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL 往 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 ：储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除。 ...

比如银河 品牌的是中低端，而 极氪 合并领克后，可以认为后两者是中高端。 那么中高端品牌占比肯定是越高越好的。极氪 +领克二者今年合计卖出38.5万辆，同比增长14%，和整体汽车市场的增长基本持平，随着极氪9X等车型的推出， 会加速品牌的高端化趋势。 吉利 的爆发主要来自于银河品牌，银河今年累计卖出87.5万辆，同比增长206%。受限于价格内卷，吉利的毛利大概率还会下降。 | | | 可以看出吉利今年每个月 新能源销量同比增速非常的高，吉利的新能源车渗透率也从去年底的不到50%，已经稳步提升到今年8月到9 月的60%。 比亚迪9月销售的39万辆都是新能源，而全国销售210万中，新能源的总渗透率是58%，而所有新势力都是新能源，所以除比亚迪和吉利以外，其他传统车企的 新能源渗透率最多只有30%。比如奇瑞的数据，8月新能源占比是29%，9月是33%。 所以吉利在新能源车方面的转型速度是非常快的，仅次于比亚迪。 第三个是出口方面， 吉利9月出口4.06万辆，同比增长1%，出口占比是15%。 1-9月出口累计只有29.45万，同比累计是-7%。 所以吉利当前在海外的布局，销售渠道，对比比亚迪和奇瑞其实是存在比较大的短 ...

- 起诉方：新加坡主权财富基金——新加坡政府投资公司（GIC） - 核心指控：GIC指控蔚来涉嫌证券欺诈，具体是通过其电池资产公司"武汉蔚能"（Mirattery）虚增收入和利润，误导投资者，导致GIC遭受投资损失。 蔚来汽车（NIO）确实被新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）起诉。 事件概况： - 起诉时间：2025年8月 期推荐 争议焦点： - 收入确认方式：蔚来通过其"电池即服务"（BaaS）模式，将电池卖给蔚能并一次性确认全部收入，而GIC认为应按用户支付租金的进度分期确认收入，这才符合美国会计准则。 - 对蔚能的控制权：GIC认为蔚来对蔚能拥有实质控制权（如经济利益、业务依赖等），应将其纳入合并报表，而非作为独立实体处理。 背景因素： - 此次诉讼的导火索是2022年6月美国做空机构Grizzly Research发布的一份报告，质疑蔚来通过蔚能虚增收入。该报告当时引发了两起美国投资者的集体诉讼，目前仍在审理中。 - GIC在2020年8月至2022年7月期间累计持有约5445万股蔚来ADS，期间蔚来股价从低点飙升至2021年1月的66.99美元高点，随后大幅下跌至目前的不到7美元。 当前进展： - 此案已 ...

一、市场竞争与销量表现 比亚迪在2024年至2025年期间，凭借其在纯电车型（BEV）的强劲表现，成功超越特斯拉，成为全球纯电汽车市场的领导者。截至2025年第三季度，比亚迪纯 电车型累计销量达到160.59万辆，而特斯拉同期销量为121.79万辆，比亚迪领先近38.8万辆。这一差距的扩大并非偶然，而是自2024年第四季度比亚迪首次超 越特斯拉之后，持续保持领先地位的结果。 1.1 市场地位与销量表现 比亚迪在2025年第三季度的销量为39.63万辆，同比下降5.52%。其中，纯电车型（BEV）销量为20.5万辆，同比增长24%；插混车型（PHEV）销量为18.8万 辆，同比下降26%。这一数据表明，尽管比亚迪在纯电领域表现强劲，但在插混市场面临较大压力。 1.2 价格战与市场压力 比亚迪在2023年至2024年期间，通过大规模的价格战巩固了其在国内新能源汽车市场的领先地位。然而，这种策略也带来了副作用。一方面，价格战压缩了行 业利润，导致包括比亚迪在内的许多新能源车企面临盈利压力；另一方面，随着竞争对手如特斯拉、吉利等也在不断推出更具性价比的产品，比亚迪的技术领先 优势逐渐被削弱，插混（PHEV）市场份额出 ...

根据 蔚来 2024Q4的盈利目标及车型定价策略，我预计2026年全年15万辆蔚来ES8和15万辆乐道L90是可以期待的，其营业收入可拆解如下： 1. 蔚 来 ES8的营收贡献 基础定价：新ES8起售价41.68万元，BaaS方案下价格降至30.88万元。假设15万辆中50%选择BaaS方案，则平均单车收入约为36.28万元。 总营收：15万辆 × 36.28万元 ≈ 544.2亿元。 2. 乐道L90的营收贡献 基础定价：乐道L90起售价约25万元（BaaS方案下进一步降低至约22万元）。假设15万辆中60%选择BaaS方案，则平均单车收入约为23.8万元。 总营收：15万辆 × 23.8万元 ≈ 357亿元。 3. 合计营业收入 ES8 + L90总营收：544.2亿元 + 357亿元 = 901.2亿元。 这一规模接近 蔚 来 2025年Q2单季度营收（190亿元）的4.7倍，若按季度分摊，可显著提升毛利率至16%-17%的盈利目标区间。 关键变量说明 毛利率影响：ES8目标毛利率20%（最高25%），L90目标15%，若达成，901.2亿元营收对应的毛利润可达157.7亿元（按17.5%综合毛利率估算 ...

Pricing and Capacity - Current spot price for hexafluoride is 69,700 yuan/ton, expected to exceed 70,000 yuan in October and reach 80,000 yuan in November; long-term contracts are being negotiated with clients for November, with price adjustments based on spot prices [1] - The industry capacity for hexafluoride is projected to be approximately 310,000 tons in 2025 and increase to 350,000 tons in 2026, indicating a low level of industry surplus with only slight increases from leading companies [1] Long-term Contracts - Electrolyte long-term contracts are adjusted monthly, locking in quantity and price; hexafluoride does not have separate long-term contracts as it primarily supplies its own electrolyte [2][3] Pricing Mechanism - The procurement mechanism for hexafluoride is mainly "customer-specified resale," with prices determined by clients; external sales are primarily spot-based, reflecting real-time market pricing, with no long-term contracts due to low external sales proportion [3] Supply and Demand Balance - The expected battery installation capacity for 2026 is 2 TWh, which corresponds to a demand of 300,000 tons of hexafluoride; with an industry capacity of 350,000 tons, the supply and demand are expected to be nearly balanced, indicating low risk of surplus [4]

1. 供应商入围门槛高，集中度提升 源网侧市场：2022年底起以集采/框架招标为主，五大六小发电集团入围供应商固定在10家以内，能同时入围五大六小的企业不超7家，行业集中度显著提升； 电芯供应：2025年下半年受电芯紧张影响，二线、三线电芯品牌占比提升，但头部系统厂商仍优先选择主流电芯品牌。 2. 系统与电芯价格：已进入上涨通道 系统价格： 集采价格存在"滞后性"（含价格联动机制，执行周期长），无法反映实时供需； 紧急订单价格已上涨：2025年9月底国能集团45天交货项目，直流侧报价0.44元/瓦时，较年初（0.380.39元/瓦时）上涨6分钱； 电芯价格： 普涨：主流品牌314安时电芯接单价0.270.28元/瓦时，较2024年底2025年初（0.240.25元/瓦时）上涨3分钱； 货期溢价：60天内交货需额外上涨2分钱/瓦时，主要因314安时电芯排产已至2026年1月，280安时电芯供应相对充足（非头部需求）。 期推荐 往 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ：储能市场增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future landscape of the Chinese automotive market by 2030, emphasizing the potential consolidation of players and the critical role of electric vehicles (EVs) in shaping the market dynamics [1][12]. Group 1: Central Enterprises - The three central enterprises are accelerating their transition to new energy, but only Changan is showing significant change, with a likelihood of mergers or further integration among them, potentially leaving only one major player [1]. - The assessment of the fuel vehicle business dependency for the three central enterprises indicates high risks, particularly for FAW and Dongfeng, due to their reliance on joint ventures and slow transition to EVs [2]. - Changan is noted for its faster transition and lower dependency on fuel vehicles compared to its peers, positioning it better for the future [2]. Group 2: Local State-Owned Enterprises - Local state-owned enterprises like BAIC may become less relevant due to the rise of new players like Xiaomi and Li Auto, while SAIC remains a significant player but faces profitability challenges [2]. - The article suggests that without strong governmental push for restructuring, only one local state-owned enterprise may survive in the competitive landscape [2]. Group 3: Private Enterprises - BYD is identified as the dominant player among private enterprises, with Geely also expected to remain competitive, while Great Wall and Chery have a chance to stay relevant [3]. - The emergence of new forces like Huawei and Xiaomi is highlighted as a significant factor that could reshape the competitive landscape [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Sales Projections - The "survival line" for mainstream automakers in the EV market is projected at an annual sales volume of 1 million units, with 2 million units needed to maintain pricing power and invest in next-generation technologies [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% by 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach between 70% and 85% by 2030 [5]. - The total retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to grow slightly from 23 million in 2024 to 25 million by 2030, with a significant portion of this market transitioning to EVs [5]. Group 5: Replacement Market Analysis - The article outlines a replacement market for fuel vehicles, estimating that 8 to 10 million buyers will switch to EVs by 2030, creating a substantial market opportunity for new energy vehicles [6]. - The analysis of various price segments indicates that the economic segment (under 80,000 RMB) will predominantly be occupied by EVs, while the mainstream market (80,000-150,000 RMB) is largely controlled by BYD and Geely [7][8]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in the mid-to-high-end market (150,000-250,000 RMB) is expected to be challenging, with brands like NIO and Li Auto facing stiff competition from Huawei and Tesla [9][10]. - The high-end market (above 400,000 RMB) is anticipated to be dominated by Huawei, with significant challenges for other brands to maintain market share [10]. - Factors such as export markets, demographic changes, and pricing strategies will play crucial roles in shaping the future of the automotive industry in China [11][12].

L系列目前的整个产品序列，存在着下面几个明显的问题： 1、在L6789当中，L8销量最差，而六座车的整体销量又明显低于五座； 2、偏偏L系列是没有真正意义上的五座旗舰的，L7虽然号称五座旗舰，但实际的配置是看齐L8的，明显低L9一档；真正的增程旗舰L9，出于想子的某种正常人 难以理解的执念，一直都不肯提供五座版本（隔壁M9就有五座版）； 3、L8一方面被同为六座的L9所压制，另一方面30多万的起售价，又没办法有效覆盖25万左右的大六座市场的需求，销量上处于一个非常尴尬的位置； 4、作为L系列旗舰，L9的销量在两年前达到峰值之后，这两年可以说是处于一个持续的下行通道当中，无论是24款还是25款的配置升级都无法改变下滑趋势； 5、出于我们都可以理解的原因，商务车市场基本上不会选择L系列。 L8则与L7正相反，磷酸铁锂的后驱版（空悬作为选装存在）将把起售价拉入到25万左右，作为大六座车型与L90之类的竞品展开正面竞争。既然销量不佳&上升 空间被L9限死，那么往下走将是个更合理的方向； 至于L9，首先期待它能拥有一套与L678不同的外观设计方案，在视觉上做出明显的区隔；其次，除了按部就班的配置提升之外，非常期望它能推 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current price increase of battery cells is a short-term phenomenon driven by concentrated demand and technological transitions, with long-term stability expected in prices [1] - Battery cell manufacturers are experiencing price increases for small orders, while maintaining stable prices for large clients to avoid losing long-term contracts [1] - The production consistency and yield of leading manufacturers are superior, impacting the overall performance and cost-effectiveness of battery cells [2] Group 2 - The transition from 314 to 500/600+ battery cells is unlikely to create significant advantages for leading manufacturers in the short term, as many are also involved in system integration [3] - Current competition in the battery cell industry is more about system integration experience and service quality rather than breakthroughs in battery cell technology [3] - The lack of significant technological barriers in battery cell production means that leading manufacturers are diversifying into system integration to maintain market share [2][3]