往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 一、国内市场（2026年展望）： 总销量：预计全口径（本土+出口）增长约15%，达到1900万辆以上。 本土销量：增长约8-9%，核心驱动来自政策（以旧换新国补预计延续但幅度可能降20-30%）、新车型投放及电动 化率提升（目前约50%+）。 出口：预计增长40-50%，主要驱动力为比亚迪（年增50-60万辆）、奇瑞、吉利等车企的海外扩张。 单车带电量：预计提升约10%，主要因插混/增程车型为满足补贴要求（续航需达100km以上）及重卡带电量提升。 动力电池需求：预计增长20%（车销量增长<10% + 带电量增长>10%）。 二、海外市场（2026年展望）： 欧洲：预计增长约30%，销量超500万辆。主要驱动：德国可能出台新补贴（针对低收入家庭）、经济型新车型推 出大周期。 美国：预计持平或微降。主因IRA电动车补贴已退出，新车型看点有限（除特斯拉低价车型）。 新兴市场：预计增长约50%。该市场以纯电为主（占比88%），电动化率低（<6%），空间巨大。主要市场包括韩 国、泰国、巴西、印度等。 海外电动车销量：预计整体增长约20%。 三、储能市场 ...

一、需求展望：2026 年全球高增长，区域分化明显 2026 年全球储能系统装机量约为 360GWh（折合 125GW），同比增长 35%。 1. 核心驱动区域 美国、澳大利亚、中东：为主要增长引擎； 中东：阿联酋、埃及等国计划大规模部署，2026 年装机量预计达 35-45GWh； 阳光电源（Sungrow）：位列第二，但面临政策及本地化要求带来的风险； 美国：2026 年装机量预计 60-80GWh，其中人工智能数据中心（AIDC）贡献 15-20GWh。 2. AIDC 相关储能需求驱动因素 电网接入需求： 数据中心高峰负荷威胁电网稳定性，储能系统可作为缓冲平抑高峰需求； 备用电源升级： 备用电源时长从 4 小时提升至 6-8 小时； 政策激励支持。 3. 低速增长区域 欧洲：受潜在供应链要求影响，增速预计低于 10%。 二、竞争格局：区域化要求重塑市场，中韩企业角力 1. 美国市场：系统集成竞争激烈 特斯拉（Tesla）：以约 40% 市占率领先，核心优势为强大技术能力和稳健本地化生产，仅存在定价较高的 短板； Fluence：凭借美国生产基地和对北美市场的熟悉度，跻身前三。 2. 电池供应商竞争 中 ...

Market Analysis - Global market overview shows that China leads with 291,000 units sold, accounting for 60.9% of total sales, followed by North America with 92,000 units (19.2%) and Europe with 53,000 units (11.1%) [1][2] - In terms of technology routes, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) dominate with a 48% market share and a year-on-year growth of 186%, while range-extended electric vehicles (REEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) hold 24% and 28% shares with growth rates of 217% and 78% respectively [1] China Market Characteristics - The penetration rate of new energy pickups is expected to rise from 0.9% in 2022 to 11.2% by 2025 [2] - Price distribution indicates that commercial models (15-250,000 RMB) make up 68% of the market, with users focusing on load capacity (>1.5 tons) and cargo volume (>1.8 m³), while passenger models (250,000-400,000 RMB) account for 32%, with a preference for smart cockpit features [2] Technology Route Competition - Average range for PHEV is 82 km, REEV is 156 km, and BEV is 312 km, with charging times of 25, 35, and 45 minutes respectively. PHEV is preferred by commercial vehicle owners due to its balance of range and charging efficiency [3] - The cost of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs has decreased from $138/kWh in 2020 to $62/kWh by 2025, while energy density is expected to improve with the mass production of CATL's new battery [4] Regional Market Differences - In China, policy incentives include the lifting of pickup bans in 90% of prefecture-level cities by 2025, exemption from purchase tax (saving 12,000 RMB per vehicle), and alignment of toll fees with passenger vehicles (saving $1,500 per vehicle annually) [4] - User demographics show that commercial customers (62%) prioritize total cost of ownership (TCO), while private customers (38%) are willing to pay a premium for smart features [5] User Demand Analysis - Economic factors drive 43% of purchasing decisions, with a total lifecycle cost savings of $28,000 compared to fuel vehicles over five years and 500,000 km [7] - 62% of users express range anxiety regarding pure electric pickups, and only 31% of commercial charging infrastructure is covered, significantly lower than the 58% for passenger vehicles [8] Future Trend Predictions - By 2030, multi-modal power systems will integrate hydrogen fuel cells into plug-in hybrid models, allowing seamless transitions between electric, hybrid, and hydrogen power [9] - Short-term projections (2025-2028) indicate that plug-in technology will dominate the commercial market with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [10] Competitive Landscape Evolution - Chinese brands like BYD and Great Wall are targeting Southeast Asia with a goal of achieving a 30% market share by 2030 through high cost-performance and localized production [11] - In North America, Tesla and Rivian are establishing competitive advantages through software subscriptions and innovative battery leasing models [11] Policy Recommendations and Corporate Strategies - Recommendations for policy optimization include establishing a global standard for new energy pickup charging interfaces and mandating integrated charging stations in logistics hubs by 2030 [12] - Corporate strategies suggest product segmentation into economical models (<200,000 RMB) for commercial markets and high-end models (>400,000 RMB) with smart features to compete with Tesla's Cybertruck [13] Conclusion - The new energy pickup market is at a critical turning point characterized by technological breakthroughs, scale effects, and ecological restructuring, with a projected global penetration rate of 35% and a market size exceeding $150 billion by 2030 [14]

Industry Overview - In November, domestic power and other battery production reached 176.3 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.3%. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 36.4 GWh and 139.6 GWh, accounting for 20.7% and 79.2% respectively [1] - The domestic power battery installation volume in November was 93.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2%. The installation volume for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.2 GWh and 75.3 GWh, making up 19.4% and 80.5% respectively [2] Market Leaders - The top three domestic power battery installations in November were: CATL with 40.87 GWh (43.7% market share), BYD with 19.04 GWh (20.4% market share), and Zhongxin Innovation with 5.96 GWh (6.4% market share) [3] - From January to November, the cumulative domestic power and other battery production reached 1468.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.1%. The cumulative production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 306.0 GWh and 1160.9 GWh, accounting for 20.8% and 79.0% respectively [3] Cumulative Data - The cumulative domestic power battery installation volume from January to November was 671.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.0%. The cumulative installation volume for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 107.7 GWh and 470.2 GWh, representing 18.8% and 81.2% respectively [4] - The top three cumulative domestic power battery installations from January to November were: CATL with 287.68 GWh (42.8% market share), BYD with 148.15 GWh (22.1% market share), and Zhongxin Innovation with 46.62 GWh (6.9% market share) [5] Global Overview - In October, the global power battery installation volume was 121.8 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.9% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [6] - The top three global power battery installations in October were: CATL with 58.0 GWh (47.6% market share), BYD with 12.9 GWh (10.6% market share), and Guoxuan High-Tech with 9.0 GWh (7.4% market share) [7] - From January to October, the cumulative global power battery installation volume reached 933.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [8] - The top three cumulative global power battery installations from January to October were: CATL with 355.2 GWh (38.1% market share), BYD with 157.9 GWh (16.9% market share), and LG with 86.5 GWh (9.3% market share) [9]

一、整体情况 根据终端销量数据，2025年11月中国乘用车终端销量200.5.万辆，环比下降4.3%； 2025年11月新能源乘用车总 销量122.3万辆，环比增长2.3%。具体能源类型来看：纯电车型销量77.4辆，环比增长0.6%；插混 车 型销量 33.5万辆， 环比增长3.4 % ；增程 车 型销量11.4万辆，环比增长11.7% 。（强调：月新能源渗透率首次突破 60%） 二、车市概况 自 10 月中下旬起，订单开始下滑。剔除 10 月底的短期抢购订单后，11 月市场形势进一步小幅走弱 —— 这一 方面因国家补贴额度耗尽，另一方面消费者进入 "观望模式"。 由于以旧换新补贴力度强， 2025 年车市超预期增长。而 2026 年仅新能源车购税 5% 减免就少了 1000 多亿的 免税让利，因此 2026 年车市增长面临巨大压力。考虑到"十五五"良好开局的愿望， 2025 年末预计要稳一些， 不必过度透支明年增长潜力 。 附件：车型销量榜单 三、品牌榜 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 ...

事件一：特斯拉Robotaxi在奥斯汀进入无人驾驶测试阶段 马斯克：无人监督（Unsupervised）基本上已经解决了。大约三周后，特斯拉Robotaxi将在奥斯汀运行，车内 没有任何人——连副驾都没 ： 事件二：我国首批L3级自动驾驶车型产品获得准入许可 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 1）【深蓝SL03】可以实现在交通拥堵环境下高速公路和城市快速路单车道内的自动驾驶功能（最高车速 50km/h），目前该功能仅限在重庆市内环快速路、新内环快速路（高滩岩立交—赖家桥立交）及渝都大道（人和立交—机场 立交）等路段开启。 2）【北汽极狐S6】可以实现高速公路和城市快速路单车道内的自动驾驶功能（最高车速80km/h），目前该功能 仅限在北京市京台高速（大兴区旧宫新桥—机场北线高速）、机场北线高速（大渠南桥—大兴机场高速）及大兴机场高速 （南六环—机场北线高速）等路段开启。 两个事件意义都非常重要，预示着：智能化正在加速迈入L4 Robotaxi无人化的运营！ 事件一代表着：从L2突破向 上的这批玩家（特斯拉为全球领头羊）证明了实现L4无人化的技术能力，下一步将是无人化规模化对外运 ...

上通五菱:10.78万辆，其中：出口1.25万辆，分车型宏光MINI5.36万辆，缤果0.69万辆 乘联会口径： 11月批售170.6万辆，同比+18.5%，环比+5.8%；渗透率56.9%，环比+1.6pct。 11月零售132.1万辆，同比+4.0%，环比+3.0%；渗透率59.4%，环比+2.2ct。 11月出口28.4万辆，同比+255.0%，环比+19.3%；渗透率47.3%，环比+3.1pct。 中汽协口径： 11月销量182.3万辆，同比+20.6%，环比+6.3%；渗透率53.2%，环比+1.5pct。 各家车企信息如下： Tesla:8.67万辆，其中：出口1.36万辆 比亚迪:47.49万辆，其中：出口12.81万辆，分车型秦DMI1.57万辆，海豚3.1万辆，海豹0.31万辆，海鸥5.01万辆，汉(EV+DM)1.19万辆，宋(EV+DM)5.6万辆，腾势1.33 万辆 蔚来:3.63万辆，其中：ET5&ET5T0.6万辆，ES60.24万辆 理想:3.32万辆，其中：L9 0.22万辆，L8 0.21万辆，L7 0.52万辆 小鹏:3.67万辆，其中：出口0.51万辆，分车型P7&P7 ...

1. 2026年汽车行业补贴政策展望 • 国家层面以旧换新补贴政策延续性明确： • 国家补贴自2020年开始持续至2025年，2024-2025年为国家、地方、车企组合补贴形式；2026年政策延续无悬 念，预计春节前（1-2月）推出。 • 资金来源：国家超长期国债发行为补贴提供资金保证（2027年政府工作报告连续提出发行）。 • 2026年以旧换新补贴总规模预计4000亿左右（较2025年3000亿小幅增长），其中新能源汽车板块占比约 10%，对应400亿规模。 • 补贴优化方向：提高技术门槛（如电池容量、续航里程）、提高旧车登记年限/排放门槛；单车补贴额度小幅 下降（2025年新能源2万、燃油车2.0以下1.5万标准基础上调整），目的是让更多车辆享受补贴。 • 地方补贴政策特点与趋势： • 2026年地方补贴将差异化、特色化，不再千篇一律照搬（如广东将补贴与购置税减免目录串联，新能源补2 万、燃油车2.0以下补1.5万）。 • 补贴方式为短周期多频次：一次性补贴2-3个月，一年推出2-3次集中补贴，用于刺激淡季销售。 • 聚焦方向：新能源汽车（当前新能源销量占比超50%、接近60%），部分地方会适配本地生产 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article aims to introduce isostatic pressing equipment, a key device in the production of solid-state batteries, highlighting its importance in addressing production challenges and enhancing material density [2][3][6]. Group 2: Isostatic Pressing Equipment Overview - Isostatic pressing equipment operates based on Pascal's law, allowing uniform pressure application in all directions, which significantly improves material densification compared to traditional unidirectional pressing methods [2]. - The process involves five steps: filling the powder material into a mold, placing it in a high-pressure container filled with a pressure medium, applying pressure, maintaining pressure for a period, and finally releasing pressure to obtain the formed component [2]. - The technology has a history of several decades and is traditionally used in powder metallurgy, ceramics, plastics, and permanent magnets, with new applications emerging in lithium battery production due to the rise of solid-state batteries [2]. Group 3: Relationship with Solid-State Battery Production - The core pain point in solid-state battery mass production is the solid-solid interface contact issue, which can lead to increased internal resistance and safety hazards [2]. - Isostatic pressing equipment plays a crucial role in eliminating gaps and voids at the solid-solid interface, ensuring a stable battery matrix for subsequent packaging and formation processes [2][6]. - The equipment is estimated to account for approximately 13% of the total value of solid-state battery equipment, making it a critical component in the industry [3][6]. Group 4: Key Manufacturers - Notable overseas manufacturers include Quintus Technologies from Sweden, which offers a full range of isostatic pressing equipment, and Hanna from South Korea, which specializes in equipment for sulfide solid-state battery production [6]. - Domestic companies include Liyuanheng, which has partnered with Quintus for joint development, Naconor, and Xiandai Intelligent, all of which are actively involved in the development of isostatic pressing technology [6].

一、 核心观点：新能源重卡（尤其是电动重卡）是确定性的未来趋势 无论短期政策如何波动，电动重卡替代传统燃油/燃气重卡是行业不可逆转的大趋势。其驱动力并非完全依赖补贴，而 是 经济性、环保压力和行业竞争倒逼 的共同结果。 一方面：想抓住当前的政策红利和"蜜月期"价差红利，尽快上车。 另一方面：担心技术迭代太快，当前购买的车型会迅速过时。 二、 当前市场表现与驱动因素 2.高渗透率： 经销商区域（河南）同比去年增长50%-55%-60%。 全国来看，2025年1-11月电动重卡销量已突破16.1万台，全年预计达18万台，是历史性突破。 预计2025年全年重卡总销量（含出口）可达100-110万台，其中国内销量约68-70万台。 短途运输（200-300公里）：电动重卡渗透率已达80%-85%，基本完成替代。 中途运输（800-1000公里）：渗透率快速提升至45%-50%。 整体渗透率：电动重卡在重卡全行业渗透率约23%-25%；在核心的牵引车细分市场，渗透率已达约30%。 经济性压倒优势：电动重卡运营成本极低，相比油车， 每公里可节省约1元 。以600度电车型为例，与油车 价差约28万元，通过油电差价，自有充电 ...