探讨业界普遍面临的挑战与破局之道，并分享科技助力投资决策更加明智的实践经验。 王东洋 凯丰投资 总经理、首席产品配置官 袁巍 华安合鑫 董事长兼投资总监 曲天石 彭博大中华区 高级经济学家 廖启承 (CFA, CQF) 彭博行业研究 股票策略师 深圳场主题： 聚焦权益与固收，展望宏观与量化 2025年彭博私募投资策略闭门交流会系列活动（深圳场） 2025年6月19日（星期四） | 15:30 - 18:00 (15:30 注册签到，16:00活动开始) 深圳 （详细活动地址将在确认函中提供） 2025年即将过半，我们见证了美国关税政策、地缘政治博弈等因素频频导致全球宏观格局震荡， 引发市场避险情绪。而中国市场凭借经济复苏、融资需求高涨而备受投资者关注，境内外多元化 资产配置机遇显现，吸引多家国际对冲基金在此落子布局。与此同时，人工智能（AI）等前沿科 技的蓬勃发展不仅使科技股表现亮眼、拉动股指上涨，还为量化投研高效赋能，成为私募机构在 不确定性中破局取胜的关键工具。 继上海场圆满举办后， 2025年彭博私募投资策略闭门交流会系列活动 即将抵达 北京、深圳、杭 州 等城市。行业领袖将与彭博经济学家、彭博行业专家 ...

Group 1 - The article focuses on economic forecasts, leveraged loans, and insights into market trends [3][10] - Economic indicators can be unpredictable, impacting various asset classes significantly, with unexpected changes in GDP growth, inflation, and employment data affecting market reactions [3][6] - The accuracy of market consensus predictions, based on economists' forecasts, has improved since 2008, with a directional accuracy reaching 83% during 2020 and 2021 [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. syndicated loan market has shown positive returns for 21 consecutive months, indicating its potential as a stable source of income and investment diversification [10][14] - Investors can adjust their risk levels without significantly lowering returns by incorporating leveraged loans into their portfolios, as demonstrated by the effective frontier analysis [13] - Reliable and comprehensive data is essential for making informed decisions in the syndicated loan market, where transparency is crucial [14] Group 3 - Interest rate fluctuations affect companies' debt servicing capabilities differently across industries, with financial institutions being particularly sensitive to these changes [17] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained interest rates steady in the first eight meetings since September 2023, followed by three consecutive rate cuts, impacting banks' risk levels [17][18] - The study evaluates the default probabilities of banks based on their total capital ratios, highlighting trends in risk levels among different groups of banks [17][18]

Core Insights - The 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting highlighted AstraZeneca's leadership with transformative data, aiming for $80 billion in sales by 2030, focusing on gastric and breast cancer treatments [2][6]. Section Summaries Gastric Cancer - AstraZeneca's Imfinzi is set to unlock a $2 billion market in perioperative gastric cancer, capitalizing on Merck's missed opportunity with the KEYNOTE-585 trial [6]. - The MATTERHORN study demonstrated unprecedented event-free survival (EFS) advantages, although it may miss out on a market of 217,000 patients in China due to data limitations [6]. Breast Cancer - Enhertu's performance in the DESTINY-Breast09 trial for first-line HER2-positive breast cancer continues to show promise [2]. - Updates from Jazz Pharmaceuticals and RemeGen on HER2-positive gastric cancer treatments were presented, indicating competitive advancements in this space [10]. Lung Cancer - Multiple datasets, including those for TIGIT and KRAS, are making progress in niche areas of lung cancer [2]. - Pfizer's PD-1xVEGF drug is anticipated to have a strong market presence, despite safety concerns [12][21]. Colorectal Cancer - Pfizer's SSGJ-707 shows potential with high efficacy, although it comes with significant safety concerns, as the market for this segment is expected to reach $60 billion [12][21]. Head and Neck Cancer - Bristol Myers' Opdivo and Merck's Keytruda have finally made progress in head and neck cancer after two decades of stagnation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for rising prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat due to supply shocks, while also indicating that unless adverse weather occurs, prices are more likely to decline than increase towards the end of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - If the growing season for corn is favorable, it is unlikely that any factors will prevent the downward trend of crude oil prices from affecting grain prices by 2025 [3]. - Corn prices may drop below $4 per bushel, rather than remaining above $5, due to increased supply elasticity and historical price trends [4][5]. - The market anticipates a corn yield of approximately 181 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to a five-year average of about 178 bushels per acre, with planting area expected to increase by about 6% to approximately 95 million acres [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparisons and Current Market Conditions - The pressure on soybean and grain prices may resemble the situation in the first half of 2018, where prices peaked until 2020 [9]. - Brazil's soybean exports have reached a record high of approximately 117 million tons, a 50% increase compared to 2018, significantly surpassing U.S. soybean exports [9]. - The number of open futures contracts for grains has surged to record levels in 2025, similar to conditions seen seven years prior [9][10]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Grain Prices - The Bloomberg Commodity Index for grains is facing multiple pressures, including oversupply from South America, declining demand from China, and falling crude oil prices [12]. - The likelihood of a supply shock in corn-producing areas is considered low, with the expectation of continued downward pressure on prices due to excess oil and liquid fuel trends [12][13]. - Legislative support for biofuel demand or exports could potentially help boost grain prices if adverse weather does not occur [12].

在彭博新能源财经工作的14年间，David曾担任多个关键领导职务，包括欧洲、中东及非洲（EMEA）研究主管， 负责政策、碳市场、电力与天然气分析；此前还领导过全球风能研究团队。他的职业生涯始于New Energy Finance 和德国银行协会的实习，期间参与了生物燃料与金融战略相关研究。 David拥有剑桥大学环境政策硕士学位，以及拜罗伊特大学哲学与经济学学士学位。 Matthias Kimmel 彭博新能源财经 能源经济主管 彭博新能源财经即将于6月24日举办 《2025年新能源市场长期展望报告》网络研讨会亚太专场 ， 邀请报告主要作者，聚焦亚太地区企业和金融机构所关心的议题，分享针对该地区独特机遇、政 策转变和挑战的深入见解。本次研讨会还特别设置了嘉宾互动问答环节，期待您的线上参会！ 全球经济与模型研究主管 重磅推介 《2025年新能源市场长期展望报告》 2025年6月24日（星期二） | 15:00 - 16:00 网络研讨会 随着政策风险和地缘政治紧张局势加剧，投资者和企业在能源转型过程中面临的复杂性前所未 有。彭博新能源财经发布的 《2025年新能源市场长期展望报告》 深入探讨了清洁能源技术的强劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bloomberg has launched a real-time event data solution that provides a unified data channel for market events, news insights, market data, pricing, and analysis, enhancing its B-PIPE market data transmission product [1][2]. Group 1: Real-time Event Data Solution - The solution extracts and standardizes data from unstructured sources in real-time, addressing the challenges faced by front-office professionals in managing dispersed information and monitoring thousands of securities [1][2]. - It allows clients to receive real-time updates through a subscription mechanism, enabling them to focus on relevant event dynamics rather than passively receiving large amounts of information [1][2]. Group 2: Automation and Quality Control - Bloomberg combines automated processes with analyst oversight to provide critical event data streams that meet the speed and consistency demands of front-office teams [2]. - The solution employs automated data collection, text analysis, and data parsing technologies to capture hundreds of thousands of announcements and news releases at the moment of publication, with quality control measures enhancing data accuracy [2]. Group 3: Product Offerings - The real-time event data solution includes several products: - Company Earnings Data Stream, covering over 10,000 companies and key performance indicators (KPIs) [2]. - Company Event Calendar, providing forward-looking schedules and updates for over 50,000 listed companies [2]. - Economic Bulletin Data Stream, offering comprehensive data on over 3,000 market-impacting indicators from more than 100 countries [2]. Group 4: Access and Integration - Users can access company earnings data through {MODL <GO>}, company event calendar data through {EVTS <GO>}, and economic bulletin data through {ECO <GO>} [3]. - The solution is designed for flexible use across various internal departments and integrates with Bloomberg Terminal desktop solutions to ensure data consistency between user operations and automated workflows [2].

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSNSWOOW8DWLU68 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 本期主题： 香港在家族办公室领域的领先优势不断扩大 超高净值人士涌入香港 香港有望轻松超越其2022年目标， 即到2025年底吸引逾200间大型家族办公室 。香港2025- 2026年预算包括为单一家族办公室提供更多税收激励。此外，资本投资者入境计划(CIES)—— 一项通过投资获得居住权的项目——在推出一年后于3月进行了优化。投资推广署（负责外商 投资的政府机构）在2021年6月至2025年2月期间帮助逾160间家族办公室开业或扩大业务，另 有150间在筹备中。 CIES的投资门槛设定为3,000万港元。推出后11个月里，CIES共收到918份申请，总资金预计 将超过270亿港元。CIES签证持有人有可能成为为家族办公室带来丰厚利润的客户群。 投资推广署协助设立的家族办公室数量 设立家族办公室程序便捷 吸引富裕人士前往香港 根据政策制定者委托德勤进行的一项调查， 去年中国香港共有逾2,700间单一家族办公室 (SFO) 。与新加坡不同，在香港不需要预先获得监管批准才能开设办公室，因此难以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF industry, valued at $11 trillion, is transitioning from a focus on ultra-low fees and passive management to higher-fee active management strategies, aiming to improve profitability and escape the revenue drought experienced in recent years [2][3]. Group 1: ETF vs. Mutual Funds - The U.S. mutual fund market, with a size of $19 trillion, primarily employs active management and generated approximately $82 billion in management fee revenue last year, significantly surpassing the $17 billion revenue of ETFs [3]. - Active mutual funds generate five times the revenue of ETFs, despite having slightly less than double the asset size of ETFs, highlighting the potential for revenue growth in the ETF sector [3]. Group 2: Revenue Disparity in ETFs - There is a significant imbalance between asset allocation and revenue contribution within the ETF industry; ETFs with fees below 10 basis points account for 60% of total ETF assets but only 16% of industry revenue, while those with fees above 50 basis points represent 6% of assets but contribute 28% of revenue [5]. - The inflow of funds into low-fee ETFs remains strong, but growth is beginning to slow, indicating a willingness among investors to pay more for specialized or differentiated investments [6]. Group 3: Future Trends in ETF Fees - The average fee for ETFs launched in 2025 has risen to 65 basis points, the highest level in history, reflecting a shift towards higher-margin products as the ETF market matures [6]. - Despite the popularity of ETFs, their revenue remains far below that of mutual funds, suggesting significant untapped revenue potential within the ETF industry [6]. - The top five ETF issuers have an average fee of only 22 basis points, while other issuers average 64 basis points, indicating a trend towards higher fees among smaller issuers as the market evolves [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Bloomberg Private Investment Strategy closed-door exchange meeting in Beijing, focusing on global and Chinese market opportunities and dynamics in the derivatives market [3][4]. - The event will feature industry leaders and Bloomberg economists sharing insights on current market trends, challenges faced by the industry, and the role of technology in enhancing investment decision-making [2][3]. - The meeting highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and U.S. tariff policies on global macroeconomic conditions, while emphasizing China's economic recovery and high financing demand as attractive for investors [3][4]. Group 2 - The series of events will also take place in Shenzhen and Hangzhou, with specific agendas to be announced two weeks prior to each event [6]. - The article mentions the significant role of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving stock performance and empowering quantitative research, which is crucial for private equity firms to navigate uncertainties [3][4].

创始人兼首席投资官 凯丰投资 总经理、首席产品配置官 袁巍 华安合鑫 董事长兼投资总监 曲天石 彭博大中华区 高级经济学家 廖启承 (CFA, CQF) 彭博行业研究 刘一民 彭博大中华区 Sean Ho 聚焦权益与固收，展望宏观与量化 州 等城市。行业领袖将与彭博经济学家、彭博行业专家共同讲述对当前市场走势的洞察与研判， 探讨业界普遍面临的挑战与破局之道，并分享科技助力投资决策更加明智的实践经验。 深圳场主题： 2025年6月19日（星期四） | 15:30 - 18:00 (15:30 注册签到，16:00活动开始) 深圳 （详细活动地址将在确认函中提供） 2025年即将过半，我们见证了美国关税政策、地缘政治博弈等因素频频导致全球宏观格局震荡， 引发市场避险情绪。而中国市场凭借经济复苏、融资需求高涨而备受投资者关注，境内外多元化 2025年彭博私募投资策略闭门交流会系列活动（深圳场） 资产配置机遇显现，吸引多家国际对冲基金在此落子布局。与此同时，人工智能（AI）等前沿科 技的蓬勃发展不仅使科技股表现亮眼、拉动股指上涨，还为量化投研高效赋能，成为私募机构在 不确定性中破局取胜的关键工具。 继上海场圆满举办后 ...