Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of -0.08% in December, with a year-to-date return of 0.61% and an annual return of 8.00% for 2024 [5][6] - The Bloomberg China High Liquidity Credit (LCC) Index achieved a return of 0.14% in December, while the Chinese dollar credit bond index (Kungfu bonds) saw a year-to-date return of 7.33% but a negative return of -0.04% in December [5][6] Monthly Index Performance - The China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) had a month-to-date return of -0.08% and a year-to-date return of 0.61%, with an index level of 244.42 [7] - The Treasury Index (I08273CN) recorded a month-to-date return of -0.27% and a year-to-date return of 0.08%, with an index level of 233.27 [7] - The Corporate Index (I08275CN) achieved a month-to-date return of 0.14% and a year-to-date return of 1.84%, with an index level of 275.58 [7] Market Developments - In September, China opened its bond repurchase market to foreign investors, with the buyout repurchase scale increasing from 810 million RMB to 13.1 billion RMB [9] - The Bloomberg Asian (ex-Japan) high-yield dollar bond index (I29381) is projected to have total returns between 7.7% and 9.6% for 2026, with positive returns expected under most scenarios despite potential default risks [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resilience of the global economy in 2025 despite challenges such as tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, and questions whether this momentum can continue into 2026 [1] - The article highlights the collaboration of China's fiscal and monetary policies aimed at promoting domestic demand growth and sustaining recovery, while exploring which sectors may present new opportunities [1] - It discusses the anticipated impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the need for proactive strategies to manage risks while seizing opportunities [1] Group 2 - Key topics for discussion at the forum include the outlook for China's macro economy and policies, trends and opportunities in the offshore credit market under global changes, and capturing opportunities in the bond market amidst macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - The forum will also address new strategies for risk management in foreign exchange and gold investments, as well as trading opportunities in precious metals amidst long-term trends and short-term volatility [1] - Notable speakers include experts from various financial institutions, providing insights into macroeconomic conditions and asset allocation strategies [4][5]

高达8 8%的制药行业受访者表示，AI的整合将给该行业带来"高度"或"极高程度"的颠覆性影 响。这使得生物医药行业的预期受冲击程度高于平均水平，仅次于软件公司。 但值得注意的是，受访者认为AI对其所在企业的颠覆程度较低——4 4%的受访者预计公司层 面受到的冲击将处于"中等"或"较低"水平，这可能反映出企业已在推进AI项目。 AI对行业的颠覆程度 本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T8XFZBKGZAJE 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 全球市场版图日新月异，彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您的企业战略助力。在 制药与生物技术领域，无论是全球行业资讯与热点，还是制药管线里程碑及催化剂事件、财务 预测…… BI涵盖广泛且深度的关键信息，旨在为您的决策提供可靠且具有竞争力的洞见支撑。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博生物制药双周报 本期主题： 药物研发是最易受到AI颠覆性影响的领域之一 （彭博行业研究）——彭博行业研究的跨行业AI调研显示，尽管药物研发企业对AI的实用价 值抱有热情，但在实际应用上仍持谨慎态度，企业预计未来五年药物研发流程中仅有 1 0%- ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas industry has a promising long-term outlook, but faces short-term challenges due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [3]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Demand - Oil and natural gas remain central to the global energy structure, accounting for approximately 60% of primary energy consumption, with a gradual and uneven transition to alternative energy sources expected [4]. - Oil demand growth is projected to slow down and may stagnate by the 2030s, but high consumption levels are anticipated to persist until after 2040 [4]. - Short-term pressures from macroeconomic weakness may impact the profitability of oil and gas producers, but demand from emerging markets, aviation, and petrochemicals is expected to support production [4]. Group 2: Future Projections - OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth by 2026 compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA), predicting consumption to exceed 106 million barrels per day, driven by emerging market demand [6]. - The IEA has revised its forecasts downward, particularly regarding demand in China, highlighting the growing uncertainty surrounding structural changes in the transportation sector [6]. - Both IEA and OPEC expect primary energy demand to continue growing until 2035, influenced by population growth, rising incomes, and increased energy use in emerging markets [9]. Group 3: Fossil Fuel Dependency - Fossil fuels are projected to maintain a share of over 50% in global primary energy demand for many years, despite a gradual decline in their proportion [11]. - In most scenarios, fossil fuel share is expected to decrease from around 80% currently to over 50% by 2040, with the IEA's net-zero emissions scenario being the most aggressive in assuming fossil fuel phase-out [11]. - The relationship between energy consumption growth and continued reliance on oil and gas is emphasized, with stronger demand forecasts often correlating with higher assumptions about fossil fuel shares [11].

15 2015 - 13 marks name on 1 the first in the mail of the state of the support of at 4 2 2 4 4 * 报名需要时间审核 | 敬请网址 名称：武家商运龄在线 | 你的能会 爱动盟盟 | * 同时时的学会跟 * 彭博Bloomberg保健酒动的英語解释权 用你 经会知识 - 请注意查收！ 线博 3 comberg ...

Core Viewpoint - Texas municipal bonds are facing dual pressures from water resource risks impacting credit ratings and issuance, while water infrastructure projects attract investor interest [3]. Group 1: Water Resource Risks - Drought-induced water supply tensions and increasing flood losses are putting pressure on the credit status of utilities and coastal areas [3]. - In 2024, Clyde experienced a revenue drop due to drought, leading to a debt default in its water system, prompting S&P to downgrade its bond rating from A- to D [4]. - Corpus Christi's decision to cancel a seawater desalination contract highlights the impact of water supply challenges on municipal credit [4]. Group 2: Financing Expansion - The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) has approved $2.67 billion in funding through the "Texas Water Implementation Fund" and "Texas Water Implementation Revenue Fund," marking the highest monthly authorization [6]. - By November, more projects were approved, pushing total authorized funding beyond $3.5 billion, indicating a growing demand for low-cost state financing [6]. - Proposition 4, approved by voters, will allocate up to $1 billion annually from sales tax revenue starting in 2027 for water supply, water reuse, groundwater importation, and desalination projects [6]. Group 3: Flood Risks - Flood risks have become a significant concern for Texas municipal bonds, with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) having paid nearly $17 billion to Texas policyholders since 1980, ranking third among states [8]. - Harris County accounted for $8.7 billion of the total payouts, followed by Galveston County ($2.4 billion) and Jefferson County ($1.2 billion) [8]. - The 2024 annual claims reached $1.6 billion, with rising reconstruction costs, insurance premiums, and infrastructure burdens straining local government budgets [8].

Core Insights - Hong Kong has become a leading financial center in Asia, attracting a significant number of family offices and private trusts, with assets under management projected to reach $198 billion in 2024 and expected to grow by over 80% by 2030 [1] - The number of single-family offices (SFOs) in Hong Kong is anticipated to exceed 3,000 by July 2023, with a target of attracting 220 new family offices between 2026 and 2028 [1] Group 1: Family Office Landscape - The "Family Office Playbook" released by Bloomberg, the Hong Kong SAR Government, and other entities outlines the favorable regulatory, tax, talent, and operational environment for family offices in Hong Kong [1] - NF Trinity, a family office under the Nan Fung Group, manages a diversified global investment portfolio and emphasizes a systematic approach to investment [4][7] - Landmark Family Office (LFO) combines traditional family office values with modern investment strategies, focusing on personalized service and strategic foresight [11][14] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Governance - NF Trinity has evolved its governance structure over the years, transitioning from founder-led operations to a team-based management approach [5][6] - LFO leverages over 20 years of banking and wealth management experience to create sustainable wealth for families, emphasizing customized investment management and risk strategies [14][15] - Harilela Group focuses on long-term investment strategies, particularly in real estate, and maintains a family management core to ensure continuity and resilience [21][22] Group 3: Talent and Community Engagement - Talent acquisition and retention are critical for family offices, with Hong Kong's flexible environment being a strategic advantage [16] - NF Trinity aims to enhance the family office ecosystem in Hong Kong by fostering collaboration and learning opportunities among family offices [8] - Harilela Group highlights the importance of integrating family office models with local business culture, benefiting from Hong Kong's robust financial ecosystem [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - By 2026, foreign market makers are expected to account for 50% of the trading volume of mainland China-listed ETFs, a significant increase from 33% in Q2 2025, driven by ample liquidity and high asset turnover rates [1]. Group 1: Participation of Foreign Market Makers - Foreign market makers are increasingly active in the mainland ETF market, with at least one foreign market maker among the top ten holders of 356 ETFs as of Q2 2025 [4]. - The number of ETFs traded by foreign market makers could reach approximately 500, as some institutions engage in intraday trading [4]. - The expected participation of foreign market makers in 2026 is projected to be at least 50%, translating to around 700 ETFs [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The mainland China ETF market is the second most liquid globally, following the U.S., with asset turnover rates of 12.7 times in 2025, significantly higher than the U.S. [6]. - Jane Street and Optiver are among the first foreign market makers to enter the mainland market, with Citadel, Virtu, and IMC expected to start operations in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Efficiency - Increased participation of foreign market makers is anticipated to narrow the bid-ask spreads of ETFs, enhancing trading efficiency [9]. - As of December last year, foreign market makers accounted for approximately 70% of trading in mainland-listed Hong Kong stock ETFs and about 90% in other cross-border ETFs, leading to reduced average bid-ask spreads of 12 basis points and 7 basis points, respectively [9]. Group 4: Leading Institutions - Jane Street, Optiver, Susquehanna, Eclipse, and Hudson River Trading (HRT) are among the largest holders of mainland-listed ETFs, with their holdings significantly increasing in recent years [9].

Core Insights - The 2025 Bloomberg China Bond Underwriting Rankings have been released, highlighting market trends and key players in the bond market [4][5]. Group 1: Panda Bonds and Credit Bonds - As of December 31, 2025, the issuance of Panda bonds by foreign institutions in China reached 183.9 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 5.62% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The total issuance of credit bonds in China for 2025 was approximately 19.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 6.85% year-on-year [8]. - New initiatives such as debt restructuring and the pilot program for company bond renewals are expected to enhance credit risk management and improve liquidity in the credit bond market [8]. Group 2: Rankings and Market Shares - Guotai Junan Securities topped the 2025 China Bond Rankings with a market share of 5.901%, followed closely by CITIC Securities at 5.792% and Bank of China at 5.122% [10]. - In the corporate bond rankings, Guotai Junan Securities led with a market share of 12.531%, followed by CITIC Securities at 12.319% and CITIC Construction Investment at 10.756% [10]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), HSBC ranked first with a market share of 6.713%, while Bank of China and Orient Securities followed [10]. Group 3: Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds (excluding certificates of deposit) by Chinese enterprises exceeded 2.05 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase of approximately 42.17% year-on-year [18]. - The issuance of US dollar bonds by Chinese enterprises surpassed 164.3 billion USD (approximately 1.17 trillion yuan), reflecting a growth of about 62.25% compared to 2024 [18]. - The issuance of dim sum bonds reached 707.2 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 9.61% [18]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached approximately 34.02 trillion yuan in 2025, up 6.54% from the previous year, driven by demand from banks and foreign investors [12]. - Local government bond issuance for 2025 was about 10.29 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 5.26% year-on-year, with general bonds at 2.61 trillion yuan and special bonds at 7.68 trillion yuan [14]. - The yield spread between US dollar and RMB bonds is currently around 230 basis points, and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could narrow this spread, potentially boosting the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds [24].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to face increased pressure in the U.S. vaccine sector by 2026, while commercial insurance opens new pathways for drug companies entering the Chinese market [3][9]. Group 1: U.S. Pharmaceutical Pricing and Investment - Concerns regarding U.S. drug pricing reforms have diminished as many pharmaceutical companies commit to significant investments in the U.S. and sign pricing agreements with the government [4]. - Major companies have pledged substantial investments, including Pfizer and Merck at $70 billion each, and Roche at $50 billion, among others, to enhance manufacturing capacity in the U.S. [5]. - The U.S. government has implemented a maximum fair price for certain drugs, with notable price reductions observed in negotiations, such as Merck's Januvia priced at $113 and similar drugs at $80 and $78 [6]. Group 2: Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Dynamics - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List will add 114 new drugs, with expected price reductions of 40%-50% for those included, reflecting a more mature negotiation mechanism [9][11]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance innovation drug list provides an alternative route for international pharmaceutical companies to launch innovative drugs in China, with 19 drugs included, such as CAR-T therapies [11][13]. - The commercial insurance pathway may allow companies to introduce higher-priced drugs if they are unable to meet the 60% price reduction typically required for inclusion in the national insurance list [11].