今天是热闹非凡的一天，一方面美国正举行陆军建军 250周年阅兵同时懂王79岁生日，另一方 面全美多地爆发反对特朗普政府移民、卫生、教育等方面政策的约2000场示威游行活动，活动 名为"不要国王"。川普的生日盛典和民众的No king怒吼交织一起，画面实在不要太美丽。 而更受关注的是中东伊以军事冲突继续升级，当地时间 6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动代号 为"狮子的力量"的大规模空袭。据伊朗方面消息，以色列此次袭击造成伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司 令萨拉米、武装部队总参谋长巴盖里死亡，此外还有10余名伊朗核科学家遇难。 当日晚间，伊朗发动 "真实诺言-3"行动对以色列进行报复，向以色列境内发射了200余枚导 弹，以色列方面表示，大部分导弹被拦截，但仍有部分导弹造成了人员伤亡和基础设施损毁。 随着双方冲突的爆发，地缘政治风险急剧升温，国际油价大幅跳涨，布伦特原油期货价格盘中一 度涨超 10%，突破92美元/桶，为去年10月以来新高；避险资产黄金价格也大幅拉升，纽约商 品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价13日比前一交易日上涨46.6美元，收于每盎司 3429.9美元，涨幅为1.38%。 所以若拼硬实力，以色列更 ...

格隆汇新股 创新药狂飙！山东青岛大健康巨头冲刺IPO，高瓴押注，近几年持续分红 原创 阅读全文 ...

港股打新机会来了！四箭齐发，哪些值得一搏？资金如何规划？ 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...

顺丰同城无人车开始起量，多家专注于物流场景的自动驾驶企业也纷纷传出融资成功的消息。 在政策松绑、资本与技术的双重驱动下，末端配送与干线货运的无人化变革正在加速推进，二级市场对于无人配送的商业前景认知也在提升， 推动相关概念股的迅速上涨。 如云内动力、通达电气、星网宇达等在相关时间节点均表现活跃。 尤其是德邦股份，5月26日-6月3日期间累计涨幅达72.16%，换手率高达24.27%。 但股价在公告澄清尚未部署无人物流车后，随之下跌超20%。 无人配送规模化落地的拐点，是否真的到来了？ 作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 近期，关于"无人配送"的话题热度持续攀升，一系列消息让这一领域备受关注。 01 "白菜价"设备问世，加速压降物流成本 种种迹象显示， 无人配送规模化落地的拐点逐渐迫近。 无人配送是指通过无人驾驶技术和智能物流系统实现的物流运输与配送服务，自动驾驶等级要达到L4层级，需要AI、传感器融合、车路协同等 技术的融合。 配送行业转向自动化解决方案， 最主要的动力来自庞大的物流配送需求，和传统物流末端人力短缺以及高昂成本之间的矛盾。 去年，中国快递业务量突破 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of quantitative trading has significantly altered the structure of the A-share market, creating both opportunities and challenges for retail investors [6][8]. Group 1: Quantitative Trading Impact - As of May 2025, quantitative trading accounts for 25% to 30% of trading volume in the A-share market, with some days approaching 35% [3]. - Quantitative trading operates at a speed of a few hundred milliseconds, compared to the average five seconds for retail investors, creating a substantial speed advantage [5]. - The presence of quantitative trading has introduced a new level of liquidity to the market, but it has also led to perceived unfairness for retail investors [6]. Group 2: Data and Strategy Disparity - Quantitative institutions process terabytes of data daily, including historical market data and social media sentiment, while retail investors rely on fragmented news and financial reports [4][6]. - The disparity in data access and processing capabilities gives quantitative firms a significant edge in strategy execution [6]. - High-frequency trading accounts for approximately 60% of total programmatic trading volume, acting as a "digital scythe" that capitalizes on the slower reactions of retail investors [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is implementing a gradual regulatory approach to enhance the oversight of quantitative trading, aiming to maintain market fairness while allowing for efficiency improvements [6]. - New regulations set to be implemented in October will shift the focus from speed to the effectiveness of trading strategies, indicating a potential evolution in the competitive landscape of quantitative trading [7]. Group 4: Future Considerations for Retail Investors - Retail investors face a choice: adapt to algorithmic trading or risk being outpaced by it [8]. - The increasing availability of low-threshold quantitative tools from brokerages may provide retail investors with opportunities to engage in quantitative trading [6].

全球经济正面临"三重压力"的严峻考验：地缘政治冲突持续升级，贸易保护主义浪潮汹涌，债务危机阴云笼罩。国际货币基金组织（IMF）最 新报告显示，2025年全球经济增速预期下调至2.8%，较年初预测回落0.5个百分点，复苏动能明显减弱。然而历史经验表明，危机往往孕育着 转机——以人工智能、可再生能源为代表的新兴领域正逆势崛起，近三年投资增速持续保持在15%以上，成为对冲传统经济下行的新引擎。 当全球资本市场在迷雾中艰难穿行之际，香港市场已悄然显现春江水暖的征兆。2025年前五月，港交所迎来117家IPO申请企业，新股首日破 发率同比下降23%，打新申购人数激增47%，市场复苏信号明确。这印证了一个永恒的投资真理：最黑暗的时刻往往孕育着最明亮的机遇。 站在年中的十字路口，全球资本正在书写新的叙事逻辑：不是被动承受压力，而是主动创造转机；不是固守旧有格局，而是开拓新生疆域。 格隆汇创始人格隆博士将在 7月4日【格隆汇·中期策略会·2025】 解构『新衣冠南渡』时代下的资本迁徙与港股机遇。 嘉宾介绍 躬身耕耘的星火，终成燎原之势； 破浪而行的孤舟，自达沧海之界。 【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】 在深圳期待您的莅临！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Kweichow Moutai's stock price has raised concerns, with a drop of nearly 13% from its peak of 1645 CNY per share to 1427 CNY, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][3][4] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai's stock has been in a weak downward trend for over four years since reaching a historical high of 2400 CNY in early 2021, with a decline of more than 40% from that peak [3][4] - The overall performance of the liquor sector has been poor, with Kweichow Moutai and other leading liquor companies experiencing significant declines in stock prices, with Moutai down 12.56% over the past 20 trading days [10][11] Group 2: Policy Impact - A new regulation effective from May 18, 2025, prohibits the serving of liquor at official meals for civil servants, which has drastically changed market expectations for future liquor consumption [6][7] - Despite a reduced reliance on government consumption, the loss of this segment is expected to impact broader business and social dining scenarios [8][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing a contraction in consumption scenarios, exacerbated by the new regulations, leading to a significant drop in wholesale sales [10][12] - Kweichow Moutai's wholesale prices have been declining, with the price for a case dropping to 2025 CNY and for individual bottles to 1960 CNY, marking a decline of over 12% compared to earlier this year [14][16] Group 4: Inventory and Supply - Current inventory levels for Kweichow Moutai are substantial, with approximately 120 million bottles in circulation and production capacity expected to add another 130 million bottles, indicating a potential oversupply [17] - Reports indicate that the liquor wholesale price index has been below 100 since last year, with a 12.5% year-on-year decline in production as of March [18][20] Group 5: Consumer Trends - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 13% of young consumers preferring liquor over other beverages, leading to a significant generational gap in consumption [26][30] - New consumption trends favor lighter beverages and experiences, with younger consumers increasingly gravitating towards products that align with their lifestyle preferences [28][29] Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry has matured over the past two decades, transitioning through various phases, and is now characterized by a strong competitive landscape [24][25] - Despite attempts by liquor companies to innovate and adapt, such as Kweichow Moutai's forays into cross-industry products, these efforts have not gained significant traction [31][32]

ETF进化论 突发黑天鹅 ！全球大跳水 原创 阅读全文 ...

7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇诚邀您莅临【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】！ 我们邀请到了东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果先生莅临现场，基于最新市场数据与独家研究框架，深度剖析 2025 下半年中国资 本市场发展路径与机遇。从"流动性牛"到"基本面牛"，资本市场中期震荡上行趋势明确，把握关键窗口，共话市场新局！ 2025 年，宏观环境从"弱复苏"到"强预期"，全球经济复苏动能分化，地缘政治与货币政策交织扰动， A 股在估值修复与盈利验证中震荡前 行。中国证监会" 1+N "政策体系加速落地，结构性货币政策工具精准发力，叠加居民储蓄转化趋势与外资配置周期重启，市场正处于关键 的"信心重估"窗口期。 分会场3 主持人开场 09:00-09:05 神秘大咖 09:05-09:20 演讲嘉宾:李开复博士 09:20-09:50 零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长 09:50-10:20 演讲嘉宾:陈果 东方财富证券研究所副所长、 首席策略官 演讲主题:百年之变局下的投资之道 10:20-10:50 演讲嘉宾:崔宸龙博士 10:50-11:20 前海开源基金投资部总监、基金经理、 直席 ESG 官 格隆汇金格奖ES ...

今天一大早，以色列袭击了伊朗，美指期货大跌，黄金石油暴涨，石油一度暴涨了 14 个点， 而我大 A ，以及港股，一定会出军费的。 今天 A 股合计 4477 只下跌，上涨仅 849 只。 血包最重的就是消费，不管是新消费，还是老消费。新消费的引擎在港股，而目前港股除了两 个大哥泡泡和老铺，其他都已经有走弱的趋势，新消费借出军费之机继续调整属于情理之中。 老消费就更加悲催点，以白酒为代表，持续下跌，就是最能扛的茅台，自 5 月 15 日以来也是 一路向南，原因不多说，懂的都懂。很多人关心白酒什么时候止跌，大家要记住，矫枉必须过 正，不过正不足以矫枉，过正到头了，反转就来了，现在还不到火候。 最近最强的是创新药，今天板块继续冲了波后大幅回落，只有少数票继续强，如舒泰神，继续 大涨了 7 个点。这个板块是最近最强的，且许多公司已经创了 21 年新高，跌了 4 年，回血 3 个月，没上车的短期就不要再追这个板块了。 今天最耀眼的就是 军工、石油和黄金。 整体市场，从前天开始明显由板块轮动转向偏弱运行，需要谨慎。 那么： 如何度过市场这个调整过程，市场预计调整到何时何处？ 军工板块的大年，应该如何参与，哪些军工细分板块 ...