ETF进化论 巨量主力资金，最新动向来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent silver price crash shares similarities with the 2011 collapse but differs significantly in driving factors, participant roles, and market dynamics, indicating a more complex market environment in 2026 compared to 2011 [2][20][21]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 2011 silver crash was driven by speculative frenzy following the 2008 financial crisis, with silver prices rising from $8.5 per ounce at the end of 2008 to a peak of $49.83 per ounce in April 2011, marking a nearly fivefold increase [4][6][10]. - In the first quarter of 2011, global silver ETF holdings surged by 210 tons, and COMEX silver futures trading volume doubled compared to the previous year, indicating a massive influx of speculative capital [9][10]. - The market was characterized by a significant imbalance, with retail investors holding 62% of long positions, leading to heightened vulnerability to market shifts [11][18]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - Regulatory actions by the CFTC and CME in April 2011, including multiple margin increases, triggered a wave of margin calls, forcing many retail and small institutional investors to liquidate positions, which contributed to the crash [12][13][14]. Group 3: Comparison with 2026 - The 2026 silver market is experiencing a similar speculative surge, but the underlying macroeconomic conditions, including a weakened dollar and geopolitical tensions, create a fundamentally different environment compared to 2011 [25][26]. - The supply-demand dynamics in 2026 are more constrained, with a projected supply-demand gap of 203 million ounces, indicating a tighter market compared to the relatively balanced conditions in 2011 [29][30]. - The demand for silver is diversifying, driven by sectors such as solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, which is expected to support prices more robustly than in 2011 [28][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that after significant downturns, silver prices tend to recover as market fundamentals reassert themselves, with the potential for a similar recovery trajectory observed post-2011 [33][34]. - The current geopolitical landscape and strategic asset accumulation by central banks may provide a more stable foundation for silver prices moving forward, contrasting with the speculative-driven volatility of past events [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is experiencing a significant growth phase, comparable to the real estate boom of 2006, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies, with a projected market size increase from $244 billion in 2025 to $827 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24% [5][9]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Drivers - The AI market is set to expand rapidly across various sectors, including industrial manufacturing, enterprise operations, and consumer services, showcasing its potential as a core driver of economic growth [5]. - The rapid development of AI is supported by technological breakthroughs and policy initiatives, with a notable increase in the usage of AI models, which reached 3.41 trillion tokens by July 2025, a nearly tenfold increase from the beginning of the year [6][9]. - The Chinese government has outlined a clear path for AI development through a series of milestones set for 2027, 2030, and 2035, focusing on aspects such as computing power, data innovation, and talent development [9]. Group 2: Application and Market Penetration - AI technology is being applied across various fields, including content creation, marketing, software development, and gaming, leading to new business models and significant efficiency improvements [14][19]. - In the content creation sector, AI has dramatically lowered production barriers, with global downloads of generative AI applications nearing 1.7 billion and in-app purchases reaching $1.9 billion in the first half of 2025 [14]. - The domestic market is also thriving, with AI-driven comic production in China experiencing a 900% revenue growth from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025, alongside significant increases in new series production [16]. Group 3: Commercialization and Business Models - The growth of the AI industry is propelled by a dual-driven model involving platform companies and vertical industry leaders, clarifying the commercialization pathways [20][21]. - Major platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are integrating AI technologies into their content production processes, with Douyin's AI-driven initiatives supporting creators and Kuaishou achieving over 45 million global users [22][23]. - Successful case studies, such as Meitu and Duolingo, demonstrate the commercial potential of AI, with Duolingo's revenue growing by 41% year-on-year in Q2 2025, and Meitu surpassing 10 million global VIP members [25][26]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The explosive growth of the AI industry presents numerous investment opportunities, particularly in three key areas: content and traffic platform companies, AI marketing leaders, and vertical AI application pioneers in sectors like gaming and education [29].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market, raises questions about whether this is a temporary spike or a sign of a fundamental reversal in trends [6][12][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the baijiu sector saw an overall increase of over 9% [3]. - Notable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao experienced significant price movements, with Moutai reaching its largest single-day increase in a while [4]. - However, the following day, most companies, except for Huangtai Liquor, saw a decline in stock prices [5]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The recent stability in the wholesale price of Moutai is attributed to increased demand as the Spring Festival approaches, with some distributors selling out their quotas for January and February [8]. - The wholesale price of Moutai rose by 1,000 yuan in a single day, exceeding 1,700 yuan per bottle [9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The baijiu industry faced significant challenges over the past year, with the Shenyuan Baijiu Index dropping over 13% in 2025, and many companies reporting profit warnings [13][14]. - The industry has been in a downturn for five years, with an overall price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating a pessimistic market outlook [16]. Group 4: Structural Changes - The production of large-scale baijiu enterprises has halved from 7.86 million kiloliters to 4.15 million kiloliters from 2019 to 2024, while sales revenue has grown from 561.8 billion yuan to 796.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 7% [22][23]. - The market is witnessing a "Matthew Effect," where the top six companies' profit share has increased from 55% in 2014 to 86% in 2024 [32]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The consumption landscape is changing, with a significant decline in the consumer base and a high inventory pressure, leading to an average inventory turnover period of 900 days in 2024 [26][27]. - The shift in consumer behavior is evident as Moutai's direct sales through the i Moutai app have increased, allowing for a more stable pricing structure and a healthier consumption ecosystem [39][43]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The baijiu industry is expected to face a prolonged recovery period, with structural opportunities for companies that can navigate the current challenges [70]. - The potential for a rebound exists, but it may take time for the industry to regain its previous growth trajectory [70].

ETF进化论 崩盘后，真正的风险是… 原创 阅读全文 ...

深创投、联想基金入股，天津冲出一家工业机器人IPO，产品平均售价下降 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...

ETF进化论 南方基金都逸敏：在化工的周期迷宫中，寻找被低估的价值坐标 原创 阅读全文 ...

以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 最近的行情，简直就是一个大乱斗场，轮动地让人目瞪口呆。 典型比如说昨天，早盘还是延续前天的行情，贵金属为代表的上游资源强，然后市场去拉了AI应用，传媒板块暴涨，再之后拉了地产，最后大 赢家原来是白酒，板块除茅台外，都涨停了，酒ETF涨停。 结果今天市场就一度大幅调整，以致有人说：以后必须要严肃对待白酒上涨了，一涨就把其他的全卖了。 那么，春季躁动到白酒，到底意味着什么？是老登们的春天要来了吗？还是市场的最后一轮补涨？ 01 纯轮动，无关基本面 首先，要明确指出，白酒昨天的集体涨停，纯轮动，大家不用想一丁点的是不是白酒基本面反转了。 茅台的批价确实是在上涨，但是，第一，这只关乎茅台，我们以前就跟大家说过，白酒里面，大家看估值看股息率，只有茅台的有意义，其他 白酒都没意义，因为业绩不可持续。 第二，马上就要春节了，之前茅台的批价急跌，跌破了1500，在官方多个动作之下，叠加春节效应，这个批价回升是正常反应，不回升只能说 白酒更加差，回升也只是正常发挥。 | 回律名 | 营业部名称 | 买入金额(万元) | 买入占比 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 1月30日，全球资本市场迎来了2026年的第一个"黑色星期五"。 失控狂涨的贵金属，突然轰然砸出一个深坑。 截至A股收盘，黄金期货主力合约也大跌4.71%，白银暴跌6.03%创下自2025年4月8日以来最大单日跌幅；钯金、铂金更是双双暴跌近 12%，同时在股市里的贵金属概念股同样几乎集体跌停； 美国市场方面，截至发文时间，纽约白银主力合约一度大跌近17%，美股白银ETF指数盘前暴跌超14%，同时美股纳指盘前也一度下跌了超 1%。 就在昨晚，重磅消息传出，特朗普 将提名 凯文·沃什执掌美联储主席，并在今晚官宣！ 在此前， 沃什一直被视为美联储偏鹰派候选人，市场预期他如果上任美联储的降息节奏将更慢、甚至可能在降息同时推进缩表，收紧长期流动 性。 目前沃什在博彩网站的胜出概率瞬间已飙升到了93%，这意味着，美联储已很有可能开始进入"沃什时代"。 这会是今天贵金属突然暴跌的导火索吗？ 01 白银全球暴跌之谜 回顾近几个月来，随着全球资金持续疯狂涌入，最终使得以白银为首的贵金属出现"史诗级"飙涨行情，甚至到达接近失控的程度。 其中纽约白银 ...

格隆汇新股 AI存储解决方案巨头冲击IPO，估值45.8亿，腾讯押注，来自北京 原创 阅读全文 ...