ETF进化论 三位大佬同时喊：卖！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 近一段时间，金龙鱼的投资者问答平台几乎被针对一连串的外部纠纷的质疑淹没。 十万股东的焦灼背后，是金龙鱼已经低迷许久的股价。 最近一连串事件导致公司股价连连下跌，近一周，金龙鱼已经跌去了百亿市值。 2020年，金龙鱼登陆创业板，创造了当时创业板最大IPO纪录。以25.70元的发行价计算，上 市之后几个月，金龙鱼股价暴涨超450%，市值最高超过7800亿元，被誉为"油茅"。 时至今日，这家千亿市值的"油茅"巨头，又站在了风口浪尖。 01 近几年来，金龙鱼的负面舆论不断。 先是打假人王海曝光金龙鱼五常大米造假，随后食用油行业又出现工业油罐车运油乱象，金龙 鱼被湖北前首富兰世立硬刚。 而最近，金龙鱼和兰世立的纠纷余波再起，尽管法庭审理暂时落下帷幕，但在法庭上的胜利， 没能带来舆论场上的支持。 在媒体平台上，抵制金龙鱼的声浪仍未止息。然而一波未平，一波又起。 近日，金龙鱼子公司广州益海又面临合同诈骗罪的天价退赔金额。 11月20日，金龙鱼发布公告，称下属子公司广州益海收到一审判决，被判构成合同诈骗罪。 然而巅峰过后，便是无尽的下跌。自202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of computing power architecture from GPU servers to orthogonal and wireless cabling is enhancing the sensitivity to material loss, making PCB a core component in AI hardware for interconnection and power supply [2] - The construction boom of AI server clusters is driving simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, leading to increased demand and prices in the PCB market [2] - Unlike the short-term fluctuations seen during the 5G cycle, the current AI cycle exhibits long-term characteristics of continuous technological iteration, with high-end PCB supply tightness expected to last until 2027 [2][7] PCB Cycle Driving Factors - PCB is a fundamental component in the electronics industry, with its demand closely correlated to innovations in downstream applications such as PCs, mobile phones, and communications [5] - Each wave of electronic product upgrades has historically driven the PCB industry's growth, from desktop computers in the 90s to smartphones and 5G base stations in recent years [5] AI Computing Market Impact - The AI computing market is larger and has a longer construction cycle compared to the 5G era, significantly boosting PCB demand [7] - For instance, the PCB value for a single GB300 NVL72 chip is approximately 3000 yuan, while ASIC chips can reach around 4000 yuan [7] - By 2026, the AI server PCB market is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan, and when including demand from switches and optical modules, the overall market could reach a trillion yuan level [7] Demand and Supply Analysis - AI computing infrastructure is now the core driver of PCB demand, directly increasing the need for high-end PCBs in AI servers, high-speed switches, and optical modules [10] - The projected PCB market size for AI servers is expected to reach 379 billion yuan and 689 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial growth potential [10] - Global demand for computing-related PCBs is forecasted to reach 181.5 billion yuan by 2026, with a supply gap of nearly 20 billion yuan anticipated, although this gap is expected to narrow by 2027 as production capacity increases [10] A-Share PCB Companies Expansion Plans - Shenghong Technology plans to acquire a factory in Thailand for 279 million yuan and aims for a total output value of 150-200 billion yuan by 2026 [13] - Jingwang Electronics has announced expansion plans to increase production capacity by 20 million square meters per year by the end of 2025 [13] - Shenyang Electronics is focusing on high-end communication HDI boards and has set ambitious expansion targets for its facilities [14] Core Materials for PCB - Various types of copper foil are essential for PCB production, with HTE copper foil being commonly used for its excellent elongation properties at high temperatures [16] - The global supply of HVLP copper foil is dominated by companies such as Mitsui Mining & Smelting and Furukawa Electric, with Mitsui being a leading player [19] Future Outlook - The PCB industry is poised for long-term growth driven by the AI cycle, with both volume and price increases expected alongside structural optimization [23] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by "technology-driven and regional rebalancing," suggesting a focus on leading companies with advanced manufacturing capabilities and robust material supply chains [23]

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector has seen significant gains in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-share copper metal concepts rising over 75% this year and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling in value. The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, which has also positively impacted other precious metals like silver and gold [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The copper metal sector has been the largest gaining sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year, with A-share copper concepts up over 75% and Hong Kong stocks nearly doubling [2]. - On a recent Friday, London copper futures surged by 2.25%, reaching a record high of $11,210.5 per ton, while domestic and U.S. copper prices also saw strong increases of 1.75% and 1.62%, respectively [2]. - Silver futures experienced an even larger increase of 5.15%, reaching a new historical high, while spot gold prices rose nearly 1.5%, surpassing $4,200 [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - A system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) led to a halt in trading, coinciding with silver's critical price breakout, which fueled conspiracy theories about market manipulation. This incident contributed to a surge in short-term speculative trading in precious metals [6][7]. - The 14th Asian Copper Week held in Shanghai from November 25-27 was a significant event, where major global copper companies discussed processing fees, leading to heightened tensions and expectations of rising copper prices due to supply chain pressures [9][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing a historically tight supply situation, with mining companies pushing for record high processing fees and halting illegal copper smelting capacity in China [9][10]. - The global copper supply is constrained by various factors, including production interruptions at major mines and a significant decline in average copper ore grades, which has increased extraction costs by nearly 80% over the past decade [18][19]. - Demand for copper is expected to surge due to the growth in industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI, with projections indicating a supply shortfall of approximately 10,000 tons by 2025 [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The consensus in the market is that copper prices are likely to continue rising due to persistent supply constraints and increasing demand, with some estimates suggesting a potential copper shortfall of 2 to 4 million tons by 2030 [20]. - Major players in the copper industry, such as Zijin Mining, are well-positioned due to their comprehensive supply chain management and cost advantages, which could lead to higher valuations in the market [22][26]. - Institutional investors, including major banks, are still showing confidence in the copper sector, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [27][28].

ETF进化论 刚刚，年内最牛基金榜单来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

蓝箭航天朱雀三号运载火箭首飞进入冲刺阶段， A 股市场的 商业 航天板块已率先躁动。 本 周 A 股 商业航天指数累计上涨 6.6 % ， 板块内部更是出现多只涨停个股。 | 什么样 | | 米帽器81 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 300102 | 陆 乾燥光电 | +20.01% | 19.07 | | 2 688523 融陆 航天环宇 | | +20.00% | 38.04 | | 3 688282 | 融 理工导航 | +15.82% | 55.13 | | 4 920564 | ■ 天润科技 | +13.90% | 24.18 | | 5 300123 副陆 亚光科技 | | +13.48% | 7.49 | | 6 301136 | | +10.20% | 16.96 | | 7 002519 | 註 陆 银河电子 | +10.06% | 5.14 | | 8 002413 融陆 雷科防务 | | +10.06% | 7.66 | | 9 603712 融陆 七一二 | | +10.03% | 21.84 | | 10 000547 融陆 航天发展 | ...

上海冲出一家IPO，毛利率飙至70%，产品应用于可控核聚变、超导电力领域 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...

ETF进化论 刚刚，重磅期指来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the consumer market, highlighting that consumer sectors have underperformed for four consecutive years, suggesting a potential rebound in the upcoming year if certain conditions are met [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The overall consumer performance this year has been poor due to a general economic slowdown, with retail sales growth at only 2.9% in October [5]. - Real estate prices have been declining, with predictions of continued downward pressure, impacting household wealth and consumer spending [7][13]. - The largest segment in consumer stocks is liquor, particularly Maotai, which has seen its wholesale price drop below 1600, down from over 3800 four years ago, indicating a significant decline in consumer sentiment [10]. Group 2: Future Consumer Outlook - If there is a recovery in the overall economy, low-priced consumer stocks with reasonable valuations could see significant growth [12]. - However, the likelihood of an economic recovery next year is low, with continued declines in real estate prices and a slowdown in exports [14]. - The article suggests that consumer spending will remain constrained due to shrinking household wealth, with a potential recovery not expected until 2027 [13]. Group 3: Specific Consumer Opportunities - Despite the overall economic challenges, there are specific consumer segments that may present opportunities, such as tourism-related spending from foreign visitors and affluent domestic consumers [16][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with significant scale advantages, which can outperform competitors even in a sluggish economy [18]. - New consumption trends, such as trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products, may still show growth potential despite the overall market conditions [18]. Group 4: Monitoring and Strategy - Investors are advised to keep an eye on policy changes that could impact the overall economy and consumer spending, while focusing on specific segments that are less affected by the broader economic downturn [20]. - The article suggests that the consumer sector should prioritize niche markets and segments that cater to affluent consumers or benefit from international tourism [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid advancements and commercialization of AI applications in the domestic internet industry, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the marketing sector driven by AI technology [2][6][10]. Group 1: AI Developments and Market Response - Ant Group launched its general AI assistant "Lingguang," achieving over 1 million downloads within four days [3]. - Alibaba's Qianwen APP surpassed 10 million downloads within a week of its public beta [4]. - Baidu's AI-related business revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 262%, reaching 2.8 billion yuan [5]. - The marketing sector has seen significant stock price increases, with BlueFocus Media's stock rising over 70% since October 30, and doubling from its lowest point earlier in the year [6]. Group 2: BlueFocus Media's Performance - BlueFocus Media reported a revenue of 51.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with a non-GAAP net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, up 85.53% [19]. - AI-driven revenue for BlueFocus reached 2.47 billion yuan, with the company indicating that AI-driven revenue for the first half of the year was 1.57 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [21][22]. - Despite these gains, AI-driven revenue accounted for less than 20% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [23]. Group 3: Challenges and Industry Dynamics - BlueFocus's overseas revenue has increased from 60.24% in 2020 to 83.45% currently, but this expansion has led to reduced profit margins due to higher competition and costs [25][26]. - The company's gross margin has been declining, with a sales gross margin of only 2.66% and a net margin of less than 1% as of the third quarter of 2025 [27]. - BlueFocus has faced cash flow issues, with a net cash flow of -365 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [32]. Group 4: Future of AI in Marketing - The marketing industry is under pressure to transform, with AI expected to drive efficiency and operational improvements [39][40]. - By 2025, the domestic AI marketing market is projected to reach 66.9 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.2% [47]. - Despite the potential for AI to enhance marketing efficiency, there are concerns about budget reductions for marketing giants due to cost-cutting measures [48]. - The current state of AI marketing is fragmented, with many marketing teams still at basic levels of AI integration [50][51]. Group 5: Conclusion on AI's Role - The article concludes that AI in advertising and marketing contains both speculative elements and transformative potential [59]. - BlueFocus's stock surge reflects market expectations for its AI transformation, but the company's ability to establish a robust AI technology framework will be crucial for its future [60]. - The marketing industry is poised for a revolution driven by AI, but the real challenges of adaptation and integration are just beginning [62].