ETF进化论 涨疯了！资金猛攻这些特色ETF 原创 阅读全文 ...

作者 |弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 漫长的国庆中秋双节假期即将结束，无论是持股还是持币，憋了八天的股民早已按捺不住。 按照历史规律， 节后A股上涨的概率竟然高达七成！ 不过，假期发生的大事儿可太多了。 港股仅仅暴涨了一天，美国政府关门摆烂，日本很有可能在接下迎来第一位女首相，Open AI接连官宣了几个重磅合作，黄金更是一鼓作气冲 上了4000美元...... 节后A股，到底该怎么走？ 国庆全球市场回顾 01 假期期间，全球市场表现如何呢？ 按照国庆假期上周（9月30日至10月5日）统计，全球主要股票指数多数上涨，东南亚市场涨幅尤为明显。 具体来看，MSCI全球指数较周二上涨0.8%，MSCI发达市场上涨0.7%，MSCI新兴市场上涨2%。主要股指方面，中国台湾加权指数与韩国综 指各有上行3.6%，涨幅居前；美国三大股指均有小幅上涨，纳斯达克指数、道琼斯指数和标普500分别上涨0.5%、0.8%和0.4%。亚洲市场 均有上行，恒生指数、日经225等均有上涨。 除原油以外，全球大宗商品多数上涨。受到OPEC+可能增加供应的消息的影响，WTI原油和布伦特原油分别下跌1. ...

2025年，中国储能行业站上了前所未有的风口。 随着《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案》重磅出台，1.8亿千瓦的装机目标如同一声发令 枪，2500亿元的直接投资蓄势待发。 数字背后是惊人的增长速度：截至2025年6月， 新型储能累计装机突破100GW，这个数字 是"十三五"末的32倍。 仅上半年新增装机就达23.03GW， 同比增长68%。 但比数字更深刻的，是游戏规则的彻底改变。 2025年2月，一纸"136号文"宣告了"强制配储"时代的终结，储能行业从此断奶自立。取而代 之的是独立储能的崛起——它已占据过半装机容量，从新能源的"附属品"蜕变为电力市场 的"实力玩家"。 储能，这个曾经的"配角"，正在新型电力系统的舞台上C位出道。它的故事，才刚刚开始。 01 政策破局："136号文"改写储能增长规则 储能估值重塑的关键，在于2025年2月发布的136号文（关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革 促进新能源高质量发展的通知）。该文件与前期政策形成"短期抢装托底、长期市场驱动"的组 合拳，彻底改变行业增长逻辑。 2025年1-9月，全球储能新增装机达86GW，同比增长92%，其中 国内新增41GW、海外新 增45GW ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In September, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, but the consumer sector showed significant divergence, with the Hang Seng Consumer Index rising approximately 4%, non-essential consumption increasing nearly 14%, and essential consumption slightly declining by about 1% [3] - There are clear signals of structural recovery as consumers begin to spend on "wants" rather than just "needs," leading to a structural reshuffle in the market where top brands leverage product and channel advantages while smaller enterprises struggle with inventory [3] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost demand in dining, travel, and hotel sectors, but this consumption surge is more about "emotional recovery" rather than "income recovery" [3] Group 2: E-commerce Giants - Alibaba is accelerating its AI initiatives, announcing a plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing over three years, establishing AI as its second growth engine [5] - Alibaba's cash reserves exceed 600 billion yuan, providing ample resources for long-term AI investments, with AI becoming a foundational engine for its business system [6] - JD's AI strategy is more defensive, focusing on building an AI ecosystem and launching the JD Xi APP as a next-generation shopping interface, but it faces challenges from instant retail competitors [7] - Meituan's net profit fell by 88.8% in Q2, leading to a significant stock drop, and while it has introduced AI features, investor concerns about profit pressure remain [8] - Pinduoduo is taking a slower but clearer approach to AI, focusing on marketing algorithms and user behavior modeling, aiming to enhance decision-making efficiency rather than pursuing flashy innovations [9] Group 3: AI in E-commerce - The narrative in e-commerce has shifted from "traffic sinking" and "price wars" to "AI reconstruction," redefining efficiency boundaries and releasing a new wave of "computing power dividends" [11] - Companies that successfully integrate AI into their operations and achieve cost reductions will likely see greater profit elasticity compared to their peers [11] - Investors face challenges in identifying genuine AI advancements versus mere hype, especially as large models enter vertical applications [11]

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 而今年国庆，由于国庆和中秋构成 8 天假期，凑长假变得相当便利，今年国庆长途旅行热度显著上升。 数据显示，今年假期首日， 全国出行人次预计超过 3.4 亿，创下历史峰值。家庭游客 也成为出行的 绝对主力，在出行人群中占比高 达 43% 。 航旅纵横的数据显示，截至 9 月 29 日，国庆中秋假期国内航线的机票预订量已突破 1189 万张，日均预订量较去年同期增长约 3% 。 在出行数据的激增之下，今年国庆的机票价格大涨。 在旅游板块已经提前消耗预期的情况下，航司能否在节后继续上涨呢？ 01 2016 年至今，航空板块持续震荡了十年。也是因此，航空板块在市场上关注度一直较低。 回顾过往，航空板块仅有两次较大的涨幅。 一次，是 2006 年至 2007 年，一次是 2014 年至 2015 年，不难发现，这两年， A 股也处于著名的牛市行情。 近一个月来，得益于旅游板块的整体上涨，航空板块也持续上涨。 Wind 数据显示，自 9 月初以来，航空运输精选指数上涨 6% ，华夏航空、吉祥航空近一个月涨幅均超 10% 。 今年国庆出行最大的 ...

ETF进化论 突然飙升！单日暴涨2000点 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a slow upward trend since 2025, with significant gains in major indices, while the banking sector has experienced a contrasting decline since July, with many banks seeing over 20% pullbacks [2][3]. Market Performance - In Q3, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 12.76% and 29.25%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index surged by 50.4%, marking a rare quarterly increase of over 50% [2]. - The banking sector, however, has faced a collective decline over three months, with the China Securities Banking Index retreating by 15% [2][3]. Fund Flow Dynamics - The decline in bank stocks is attributed to a shift in capital towards high-growth sectors like AI and biotechnology, which have become attractive to investors, leading to a "siphoning effect" from the banking sector [3]. - Since the introduction of the "China Special Valuation" concept in 2022, the banking sector has attracted long-term funds due to its low valuation and high dividend yield, but the risk appetite has shifted towards growth sectors in 2025 [3][6]. Financial Health of the Banking Sector - Despite the stock price declines, the banking sector's fundamentals remain robust, with over 60% of listed banks reporting revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year [8]. - The non-performing loan ratio for banks remained stable at 1.23%, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 238.6%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [9]. Valuation and Investment Appeal - The China Securities Banking Index's price-to-book ratio has fallen to 0.62x, placing it at the 36th percentile historically, suggesting that bank stocks are not overvalued [10]. - The banking sector offers stable dividend yields, with many banks providing yields over 4%, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [12][13]. Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term capital inflows into the banking sector remain strong, with social security funds increasing their holdings in bank stocks to 51.71% and insurance funds actively investing [13][14]. - The market typically sees positive performance for bank stocks after the National Day holiday, with a 79% probability of gains in the week following the holiday [18]. Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-term dividend peak from November to January is expected to attract preemptive capital positioning, with potential returns of 10%-15% for bank stocks [19]. - Focus should be on high-dividend large banks and regional banks with strong performance metrics, as they are likely to provide better resilience and growth potential [19].

ETF进化论 大佬发出预警！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong stocks, particularly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, is attributed to a combination of low valuations, AI performance explosion, and increased capital inflow, making it a prime investment opportunity [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September has triggered a global liquidity shift, leading to increased investments in Hong Kong stocks, which are seen as undervalued and growth-oriented [4][5]. - Southbound capital inflow reached a record high of over 160 billion in September, with total annual inflow expected to exceed 1 trillion, indicating a strong demand for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet and AI sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio that is 30% lower than its historical average, presenting a rare buying opportunity for investors [6]. - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the realization of AI earnings has transformed Hong Kong stocks from being overlooked to highly sought after, with a significant shift in market sentiment [6][16]. Group 3: AI Sector Developments - Major internet companies are heavily investing in AI, with Alibaba restructuring its business to focus on e-commerce, cloud, and AI, and reporting triple-digit growth in AI revenue for eight consecutive quarters [10]. - Companies like Tencent and JD.com are also making substantial investments in AI infrastructure and self-developed chips, which are crucial for reducing costs and enhancing performance in AI applications [11][12][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market environment for Hong Kong stocks is characterized by a return to growth, driven by AI and significant capital inflows, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the near future [16]. - Investors are encouraged to stay informed about industry dynamics and policy changes to capitalize on the ongoing opportunities in the Hong Kong market [16][17].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in cobalt prices, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and rising demand from AI and new energy sectors [2][3][5] - Cobalt prices surged from 159,000 CNY/ton to 272,500 CNY/ton within a year, marking an increase of over 60% [2] - On September 29, the price of 1 cobalt in the Yangtze River market rose by 29,000 CNY in a single day, reaching 337,000 CNY/ton, the largest single-day increase of the year [2] Group 2 - The DRC's government imposed a four-month ban on cobalt exports starting February 22, which was later extended for another three months, significantly impacting global supply [3][5] - The DRC accounts for a substantial portion of global cobalt production, and its export ban led to a drastic reduction in imports of cobalt intermediates in China, dropping from 19,000 tons in June to just 5,200 tons in August [3][5] - The domestic production of electrolytic cobalt fell by over 50% year-on-year in July, with other downstream products also experiencing declines of 13%-16% [3] Group 3 - Cobalt's price surge is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected 34% reduction in global cobalt supply if the DRC's export ban lasts for seven months [5] - The demand for cobalt is primarily driven by its critical role in batteries, with 66% of global cobalt used in this sector, and in China, this figure rises to 87% [7] - Cobalt is essential not only for electric vehicle batteries but also for high-end manufacturing applications, including aerospace and medical tools [7][8] Group 4 - The current market conditions suggest that cobalt prices may continue to rise due to ongoing supply shortages and increasing demand, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is a peak season for new energy vehicles and consumer electronics [10] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a 5.06% increase in cobalt demand in 2025, leading to a shift from a surplus of 83,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 7,000 tons in 2025 [10] - Emerging demands from sectors like drones, robotics, and AI chip production are expected to sustain long-term growth in cobalt prices [11] Group 5 - Companies involved in cobalt mining, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, reported a 60% increase in net profit in the first half of the year due to the rising cobalt prices [13] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt market are becoming more attractive, but investors need to monitor DRC policies, downstream demand, and individual company metrics closely [13] - A list of companies benefiting from the cobalt supply chain has been compiled, with ongoing updates on supply-demand data and policy changes available for interested investors [13]