格隆汇新股 北京冲出一家AI应用IPO，估值23亿，招商局押注 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by concerns over AI bubbles and changing interest rate expectations, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report and the latest employment data [2][4][12]. Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq, experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping 4.7%, marking its largest intraday drop since April [4][12]. - In China, the three major stock indices also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% and the ChiNext Index down 4.02% [3]. Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia reported a third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Despite Nvidia's optimistic outlook, investor concerns about high valuations in tech stocks persisted, leading to market skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI demand [6][18]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, the strongest monthly gain since April, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [9][10]. - The employment report has complicated the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with a 60.4% probability of maintaining rates in December and a 39.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [11]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The article highlights a shift in market sentiment, with a focus on nine negative factors contributing to the recent sell-off, including concerns over Nvidia's "good news already priced in" and tightening liquidity [14][15]. - The average liquidity in the S&P 500 has decreased, indicating that small trades can lead to significant price fluctuations [15]. AI Market Dynamics - The article raises questions about the profitability of AI investments, noting that major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures while facing challenges in cash flow sustainability [19]. - The potential for an AI bubble is discussed, with concerns that the current financing models may lead to vulnerabilities in the market [19][24]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the immediate market outlook is uncertain, the long-term trend for A-shares remains positive, with expectations of a gradual upward movement around the 4000-point mark [27].

ETF进化论 史诗级大跳水！究竟发生了什么？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

今天是全球杀疯的一天， A 股甚至都不上演以往的低开高走，展示我们对资本主义的优越性了。这个也好理解，一般 A 股显示优越性是只管 一天的，而如果美股持续下跌， A 股无一例外都会跟跌，股市里大家少点幻想，是不存在东升西落的。 然后今天暴跌，大家也不用找我们自身的原因，这个原因是全球性的，那就是全球流动性杀，体现为股票跌、黄金跌、币跌，独独美元指数， 又上 100 了。 这种全球性的流动性杀带来的下跌，看似凶险，但是是有解的，最怕的全球性下跌是全球衰退带来的，这种就是漫长的阴跌，才真正叫可怕。 那么当前这波全球流动性杀起源于哪，又将在什么时候结束？ 01 全球流动性的由来 这波全球流动性杀始于美国政府的停摆，之前在《全球暴跌， A 股独涨，这是什么逻辑？》那篇文章里详细讲了美国政府停摆对流动性的杀 伤。美国政府停摆导致财政部大量应该花向市场的钱没有流动出去，美国的短融市场立即感受到了压力，因而短融市场利率飙升。 随后给流动性一击的是 10 月 30 日凌晨美联储的议息会议。惯例美联储发布决议内容后，就是鲍威尔的新闻发布会。但在我们这边时间凌晨 2 点 35 左右时，鲍威尔原来在读稿子，这时却抬了头补充道：" ...

格隆汇新股 卖调味品年入34亿！四川成都冲出一家IPO，三年半派息近13亿 原创 阅读全文 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's FY26Q3 financial report indicates a robust and sustained demand for AI computing power, with significant revenue growth and a strong order backlog, dispelling concerns about an AI bubble [2][4][49]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations by nearly $2 billion and showing a year-over-year increase of 62% [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit was $31.7 billion, translating to an average daily profit of $350 million, surpassing the annual revenue of many tech companies [3][4]. - The adjusted gross margin was 73.6%, with a target of 75% for FY27, indicating improved profitability [7][9]. Business Segments - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 66% [11]. - The computing business grew by 56%, supported by the GB300 product line [12]. - Networking revenue doubled to $8.2 billion, driven by NVLink and Spectrum-X [15][38]. - Automotive revenue reached $592 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, indicating future potential in autonomous driving [17]. Demand Dynamics - Nvidia has a backlog of $500 billion in orders, with 5 million GPUs needed for AI projects this quarter [18][22]. - The demand spans across cloud providers, sovereign nations, and tech companies, with no signs of a seasonal slowdown [23][24]. - Key partnerships include a 1 GW computing power agreement with Anthropic and a three-year supply deal with Saudi Arabia for 400,000 to 600,000 GPUs [21]. Technological Leadership - The Blackwell platform is a key driver, with the GB300 product contributing nearly two-thirds of its revenue and outperforming previous models [31][32]. - The upcoming Rubin platform, set to launch in the second half of 2026, aims for significant performance improvements [34]. - The CUDA ecosystem remains a critical competitive advantage, ensuring customer retention and performance upgrades [36]. Supply Chain and Partnerships - Nvidia is building a resilient global supply chain, with key partners including TSMC and Foxconn [44]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to reach 105,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 [45]. - The company maintains a cooperative stance with competitors like Intel, balancing competition with collaboration [46]. Future Outlook - Key indicators for Nvidia's continued growth include meeting FY26Q4 revenue targets, successful Rubin platform production, and stable supply chain costs [51]. - Nvidia's core advantages include its technological monopoly, the CUDA ecosystem, and a substantial order backlog, positioning it as a critical player in the AI infrastructure market [52].

ETF进化论 最猛增量资金新动向！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

作者 | 贝隆行业研究 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 如果投资者继续用 "全球最大的个人电脑制造商"来看待联想集团，他们很可能会错过AI狂潮中这个举足轻重的玩家。全球投资者、尤其是中国 内地的投资者们习惯用一种根深蒂固的旧模型来对联想集团进行整体估值，即基于PC业务的业绩表现，而传统PC硬件属于具有强周期性的相 对低毛利业务。 联想集团寻求矫正投资者们的旧观念，但最大的敌人却是自己。毕竟，它霸占全球 PC市场市占率第一的位置已经很多年了。在这个竞争极其 激烈的红海市场中，其市占率本就已经高到 不可思议 ，但却总能继续创出新高。在最新的一个 财季 中，这个数字已经攀升至 25.5%。 显然，这很大程度上让公众投资者忽视了联想集团 非 PC业务 的业绩表现，即便这些业务所创造的营收在数年之前就已占到公司总营收的近一 半。当然，非 PC业务营收比例的提高并不足以解释联想集团为何在过去连续多个财季实现了营收与利润的高增长，尤其是毛利率的持续提升 帮助其净利增速有两个财季甚至超过了100%。 性感的故事早已发生， AI技术浪潮给这家企业带来了历史性机遇。联想集团是最早几家真正抓住AI技 ...

最近后台被问爆了： "明明是牛市，怎么 手中 券商股涨得磨磨唧唧，反倒银行保险一路飘红？ 慢牛格局下，啥时候券商股会再来行情？ " 不少散户朋友盯着账户犯嘀咕，当初满仓券商盼着 "牛市旗手"发力，结果看着隔壁农业银行接连创新高，心里那叫一个急。 先别慌着换仓，今天咱们把这事说透 —— 券商不是涨得少，是前面冲得太猛，你刚好错过了它的 "热身赛"。 所谓 "券商涨不过银行保险"，本质上是个"视觉误差"。 咱们先把尺子亮出来，用数据说话才靠谱。记住两个关键时间点： 2024年9月24日，还有2025年4月7日 的特朗普黄金坑 ，这都是本轮行情 的 两个 重要起点。 从 2024年9月24日算起，到 昨天 券商板块整体涨幅超过 4 7 %，而银行板块 超 36 %，保险板块 略超 3 3 %。 再看 2025年4月7日以来的这波反弹，券商也以1 4 %的涨幅，跑赢了银行的 9 %和保险的 5 % ， 而需要注意的是这区间农业银行区间涨幅 接近 57% ， 远超其他大金融个股，后面我们再会详细讲讲它的影响。 这么一看是不是很清晰？券商压根没输，甚至一直是 "隐形冠军"。 那为啥大家总觉得银行保险更能打？这就得说说三类 ...

ETF进化论 黑天鹅突袭！市场瞬间紧绷 原创 阅读全文 ...