图表1：六大行存款到期分布（截至年末时点数据，万亿元） 资料来源： iFind ，申万宏源研究 存款利率下降， 钱可能会去哪？ 2025年5月降息后，以工行为例，1年、2年、3年存款挂牌利率分别为0.95%，1.05%，1.25%。 2025年是存款到期再配置高峰期，存款重定价面临利率断崖式回落。六大行共有52.4万亿元左右 的存款到期，粗略估算存款类金融机构在2025年约有108.3万亿元的存款到期。 资料来源：六大行年报，申万宏源研究 图表2：2025年5月工行存款挂牌利率与2022年9月对比（%) 2022年以来房地产、类固收资产收益率加速回落，沪深300股息率开始高于无风险利率，目前差 距还在拉大，权益资产收益率优势凸显。 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 图表5：A股股息率已经明显高于无风险利率 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 图表3：2025年是存款到期再配置高峰期， 存款重定价面临利率断崖式回落 本轮存款搬家有什么不一样？ | | | | | 2025年5月监管引导存款利率调整,各期限存款下调幅度(bps) | | | | 1年内重定价定期存 | 1年内重定价定 期存款占总存款 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market concerns do not pose significant downward risks, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue, with potential for a favorable market performance in Q4 2025 and spring 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Concerns and Outlook - The macroeconomic combination in H2 2025 is unfavorable but will not impact the expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026, as the key verification period for demand may not occur until after 2025 [2][3]. - The structural mainline related to the core narrative of the bull market has not yet established a trend, but this is not expected to hinder the performance of Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 [3][4]. - The potential impact of the expiration of the 90-day pause on US-China tariffs is expected to weaken over time, as trade relations between China and other countries remain stable [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategies - The focus for short-term investments should be on "bull market synchronous assets," particularly in sectors like brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, while also considering high-demand sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing [6][7]. - The structural strategy of "anti-involution" in high market share manufacturing sectors in China aims to build price alliances and enhance industry concentration, particularly in solar energy, chemicals, and key electrical components [6][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to lead in the bull market, with increasing optimism and a high net inflow from mainland investors, indicating a potential for better performance compared to A-shares [7][8].

有别于大众的认识：市场认为抗癫痫药产品众多，新药空间受限。但我们认为：癫痫存在较大治 疗缺口，根据《柳叶刀-公共卫生》数据统计，2021年全球有5170万人患有癫痫，现有抗癫痫药 疗效有限、副作用明显，我们关注到部分新药临床数据优异，或能填补巨大未被满足市场。 我们建议关注神经系统疾病，例如癫痫等，其发病机制复杂，存在较大治疗缺口。 据中国抗癫痫 协会数据，中国约有900万左右的癫痫患者。由于癫痫发病机制复杂多样，经单药序贯或多药联合 治疗后，仍有30%的癫痫患者发作无法得到有效控制，治疗存在着较大缺口。 资料来源： nature reviews drug discovery ，申万宏源研究 脱水报告基于的历史报告合集 历史报告 《 赛道百花齐放，潜力靶点或迎新突破——癫痫药物行业深度报告 》2025.06.17 THE END 资料来源：《柳叶刀 - 公共卫生》，申万宏源研究 随着新靶点的发现、新技术的探索，抗癫痫药物管线逐渐丰富，新靶点药物突破在即，填补未被满 足的巨大市场。 目前的抗癫痫发作药物（ASMs）存在疗效有限、副作用明显等问题。随着新靶点 的突破、新技术的提升，通过精确靶向离子通道、神经递质系 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 赵宇 摘要 8月12日，中美关税暂停措施即将到期。从美国近期与日本、欧盟等经济体达成的"投资换关税"贸易协议来看，后续关税风险能否缓和，还存在哪些潜在贸易 冲突？ 热点思考： 美国贸易协议中的"虚虚实实" （一） 贸易谈判进度？谈判进程已近半，美国实质建立了三档分层关税 从贸易协议覆盖的商品规模来看，美国贸易谈判进程已近半。 截至8月1日，美国已与越南、日本、欧盟、韩国等九个经济体达成贸易协议或暂停协议。其 中，德国占美国进口的5%，日本4%、韩国4%，仍在推进谈判的经济体包括墨西哥（15%）、加拿大（11%）、印度（3%）等。 二季度美国有效关税税率为7.9%，仍远低于理论税率。 8月1日后，美国理论关税税率已由年初的2.4%上升15.9个点至18.3%。2025年二季度关税收入640亿美 元，是去年同期的3.6倍，二季度商品进口规模8194亿美元，有效关税税率仅7.9%，比理论税率低10个点。 通过贸易谈判，美国实质上建立了三档分层关税。 一是最低档10%，主要为盟友国或贸易逆差较小的经济体，如英国、澳大利亚、新加坡等；二是中间档 15%–20%，主要 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events - Developed market indices experienced a rebound, with the Nasdaq index rising by 3.9%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the Ho Chi Minh index up by 6.0% and the SENSEX in India down by 0.9% [3][11] - The WTI crude oil price fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce [26][30] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, effective August 7, with exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - On August 6, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total to 50%, effective August 28 [32][33] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a potential slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June decreased by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategies in the express delivery and petrochemical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting the potential for price recovery and structural opportunities in these sectors [1]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to price recovery, with the belief that the "anti-involution" policy aligns with optimizing logistics costs, rather than conflicting with it [2]. - The National Postal Administration's commitment to high-quality industry development and the restoration of price disparities is seen as a positive factor, ensuring that low prices can be adjusted above delivery fees to protect workers' rights and coordinate the national e-commerce supply chain [2]. - Predictions indicate a significant range of net profit for companies within the Tongda system for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the potential impact of price adjustments on profitability [3][4]. Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector's "anti-involution" opportunities are primarily concentrated in high-demand sub-sectors, where high operating rates indicate better current market conditions [5][6]. - The focus should be on the current economic climate of the industry, with high operating rates suggesting a more favorable environment for growth, while the elimination of outdated capacity can enhance this situation [6]. - Key areas within the petrochemical industry expected to see significant "anti-involution" potential include refining, olefins, and polyester, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in these segments [8][11].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、投资者普遍对牛市有期待，但对短期市场的分歧有所加大。总结短期市场面临的阻力： 1. 25Q3市场预期经济回落 + 政策重点是调结构，宏观环境暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强动量 应该从牛市的核心叙事中诞生。医药和海外算力是独立高景气，但牛市主线需要内涵外延更大纵深，国内科技突破、全球市占率高的制造业反内 卷，才是潜在的牛市主线方向。 牛市行情逐步启动正在成为市场共识，但对短期市场，投资者仍有较大分歧。我们总结短期市场面临的阻力：1. 反内卷强化了2026年中游制造供 给出清的预期，但市场对需求侧信心仍明显不足。市场预期25H2经济弱于25H1，且政策重点偏向调结构。2026年需求改善线索仍不清晰。这个 宏观组合可能暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强的动量应该与牛市核心叙事直接相关。医药更偏向 于独立的产业趋势。而海外算力链是全球AI扩散行情的一部分，但对于A股而言，海外算力链的投资机会是收敛的，分化的。而能够作为牛市主 线的结构线索，应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].

《 磨底未竟，转折已萌——房地产行业2025年中期投资策略 》 我们推演房地产发展新模式可能包括：好房子、人房地钱、房屋全生命周期管理、现房销售制度等，并我们认为，房地产发展新模式的 政策本意在于推动房地产行业从金融业回归制造业。 图表：房地产新发展模式推演 资料来源：政府官网，申万宏源研究 好房子是政策导向，当前房地产处于好房子存量少+改需正值释放阶段，供给端估算目前我国城镇住宅存量中高品质住宅渗透率仅为 24%，而需求端估算2022-20年改需占比高达44%，好房子也是行业内生需求、并且预示着广大空间。 图表：中国好房子的供需分析 资料来源： Wind 、七普、统计局、申万宏源研究 我们认为，市场对于好房子的追求也在从硬件层面逐步扩展到软件层面，好房子定义应为：物理建筑->功能居住->精神寄托，预计好房 子政策也将推动房企从金融业回归制造业。 图表：广义的好房子定义 来自报告 资料来源：住建部、申万宏源研究 以美国经验为鉴，在房地产危机之后，行业经历供给改革，企业进行模式优化，产品力及库存管理能力强的优质房企穿越周期。 图表：房地产危机前后美国四大房企的杜邦分析 资料来源： Wind 、申万宏源研究 展望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].