Group 1 - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase equity allocations due to a reduction in risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility 100 indices, potentially releasing over 1 trillion yuan in equity investment capacity [6][11][12] - The spring market is expected to be a small-scale rebound within a high-level fluctuation, with policy layouts starting mid-December potentially triggering this seasonal rally [6] - The market style for 2026 is anticipated to shift from a "bull market 1.0" characterized by cyclical and value stocks in the first half to a "bull market 2.0" dominated by technology and advanced manufacturing in the second half [6] Group 2 - A-share valuations as of December 5, 2025, show the CSI All Share Index at a PE of 21.1 and PB of 1.8, indicating it is at the 77% and 39% historical percentiles respectively [8] - The real estate, retail, pharmaceutical, and IT services sectors are currently at or above the 85% historical percentile for PE valuations, indicating high valuation levels [8][9] - The healthcare services sector is noted to be below the 15% historical percentile for both PE and PB valuations, suggesting potential undervaluation [9] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies ten key investment opportunities, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to drive future growth [11][13] - A-share companies' overseas revenue growth is projected to outpace overall revenue growth, with overseas revenue expected to increase by 10.1% in 2024, compared to a decline of 0.8% in overall revenue [16] - The PPI price increase chain in the upstream sector is expected to continue, with specific industries like automotive manufacturing and energy showing signs of improvement [19][20] Group 4 - In November 2025, stock buybacks and increased loan applications surged by 55%, primarily driven by a nearly 18-fold increase in buyback applications [22] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards a recovery, with various sectors showing signs of reversal and supply clearing opportunities [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of local governments leveraging local financial institutions to enhance financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), addressing their financing challenges and contributing to economic resilience and vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Building a Local Financial Service Ecosystem for SMEs - Local governments should utilize local financial resources, focusing on the advantages of local banks and rural banks that are familiar with regional enterprises, to innovate credit granting methods and risk control models [3]. - Establishing a robust risk-sharing and credit enhancement system is crucial for SME financing, requiring local governments to implement mechanisms such as financial risk compensation funds and government-backed financing guarantees [4]. - Innovating financial supply models to create a comprehensive service system tailored to the characteristics of SMEs is essential, with an emphasis on digitalization and scenario-based services [5]. Group 2: Taizhou's Experience in Financial Services for SMEs - Taizhou has developed a specialized financial system for SMEs, primarily through local banks, effectively channeling financial resources to county-level and small enterprises [6]. - The city has implemented a "small bank serving small enterprises" model, with local banks adopting differentiated inclusive finance methodologies to address credit shortages faced by SMEs [6]. - Taizhou has established three platforms to support local financial institutions: a credit information sharing platform, a trademark pledge financing platform, and a credit guarantee fund for SMEs, enhancing financing accessibility and reducing costs [7]. Group 3: Legal Framework Supporting SME Financing - Taizhou has pioneered enterprise credit legislation, with the implementation of the "Taizhou Enterprise Credit Promotion Regulations," which solidifies the achievements of local financial reforms and provides legal support for ongoing improvements [8]. - The unique financial model in Taizhou has facilitated the rapid growth of numerous SMEs with technological advantages, contributing to a significant increase in market entities and the number of listed companies in the region [8].

有别于大众的认识 1） 市场普遍关注人形机器人，我们认为外骨骼机器人或率先放量。外骨骼机器人具备场景清晰、需求明确、技术相对简单、成本快速降低等 条件，随着机器人技术发展，过去外骨骼领域的瓶颈的电池、材料、算法技术有望快速产业化。相比通用人形，外骨骼产业的成熟和需求爆发应 当更快。 2） 市场认为外骨骼的市场空间有限。我们认为在军用、医疗康养、消费和工业领域均有潜在需求，随着产业化推进渗透率将不断提升。预计 中期潜在市场规模为195亿元，若产品持续优化穿戴舒适性、降低单价，市场存在超预期潜力。 "外骨骼"的结构和工作原理与人类骨骼相似。 核心工作原理是构建"感知-处理-驱动-反馈"闭环，实时捕捉人体运动意图，经智能处理输出 机械助力，最终达成自然流畅、具有高度实时性的人机协同运动。其基本功能是增强人体能力，下肢外骨骼增强负重能力和机动能力，上肢外 骨骼增强人的力量和作业能力。 资料来源：傲鲨智能官网，申万宏源研究 下游应用从专业领域走向大众消费。 外骨骼最早的研究出于军队需求，以增加力量、速度、耐力和反应力等，后延伸至民用市场。医疗康 养领域用于康复训练、生活辅助等；工业领域用于减轻体力劳动、降低劳损；消费领 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to develop new financial models that support new factors of production, focusing on value formation, capital support, and ecological collaboration to foster innovative productivity and drive economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Model for New Factors - Local governments should create financial models that serve new factors of production, focusing on financialization, monetization, and securitization to enhance financial services for these new factors [3]. - The financialization of factors is crucial for discovering their prices and enhancing their value, which is essential for financing new factor enterprises [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to explore financialization paths that align with local characteristics, including promoting data factor marketization and establishing data trading platforms [3]. Group 2: Capital Introduction for New Factor Enterprises - There is a need to attract "patient capital" for the high-quality development of new factor enterprises, which often face challenges in obtaining credit due to long R&D cycles and unclear business models [4]. - Local governments should build a capital supply system that includes specialized fund aggregation platforms to improve the efficiency of capital and project matching [4]. - A comprehensive venture capital service system should be established to support project selection, due diligence, and talent introduction, creating an ecosystem for capital and innovation [4]. Group 3: Dual Empowerment of Financial Services and Industry Development - Financial services should be integrated with industry development to create a dual empowerment effect, where digital technology enhances financial capabilities and financial capital accelerates the development of digital industries [5]. - Local governments are urged to promote the deep integration of financial elements with digital industry systems, encouraging collaboration among leading enterprises, platform companies, and financial institutions [5]. - Financial institutions should develop financial products tailored to the characteristics of the digital industry, such as supply chain finance and algorithm-driven credit assessments [5]. Group 4: Case Study of Hangzhou - Hangzhou has innovatively explored a comprehensive financial service model that integrates industry, data, and finance to support the growth of new industries and technologies [6]. - The city has established a data trading center and is implementing regulations to facilitate data assetization and securitization, becoming a pioneer in data trading legislation [6][7]. - Hangzhou's financial innovation has led to the creation of customized financial tools that replace traditional collateral with new factors like talent and intellectual property, effectively supporting the digital economy [8].

聚焦"十五五"战略目标 全面提升金融服务效能（五） 杨成长、龚 芳、陆铭俊 以可得性、适配性、综合性为代表的"三性"是衡量金融服务效能的重要维度。"十五五"期 间，金融机构应转变发展理念，以客户真实需求为导向，通过全面提升金融服务的可得性、适配 性与综合性，最终推动金融与实体经济形成共生共荣的新格局。 金融服务的可得性旨在让各类经营主体都能便捷获取基础金融服务。破解金融服务可得性难 题需要从创新服务模式、优化产品设计、丰富数字渠道和完善信息披露等多个维度协同推进。 金融服务的适配性是提升金融市场资源配置效率的关键。破解金融服务适配性难题要求金融 机构从企业真实财务需求、治理需求、风险需求、运营需求出发，提供更有针对性的金融服务。 金融服务的综合性是金融机构之间通过加强合作，更好满足企业多元综合金融需求的能力。 提升金融服务综合性亟需金融机构在现有分业监管的要求下，加大合作，探索大项目联合服务、 园区金融共同体等机制，更好满足企业的综合金融服务需求。 综合性反映金融体系满足企业多元综合金融需求的能力。随着企业规模扩大与业务复杂化， 单一类型的金融服务已难以满足其多元化、跨周期、全链条的需求。从跨境融资到并购重组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the evaluation mechanism for local funds and increasing their tolerance for investment losses to better support foundational research and future industry development [1][3]. Group 1: Government Fund and Investment Strategy - Local governments are establishing industry funds and guiding funds to attract emerging industries and quality enterprises through equity investment and project attraction [3][4]. - The government should improve the evaluation mechanism for local funds, allowing for greater tolerance of investment losses and focusing on overall fund returns rather than individual project returns [3][4]. - Introducing market-oriented professional management institutions can attract more market funds and create a comprehensive investment chain covering various stages of enterprise development [3][4]. Group 2: Role of Government Funds in Project Development - Major projects and leading enterprises are crucial for building complete industrial chains and ecosystems, with government investment playing a significant role in this process [4][5]. - Local governments should identify core and weak links in the industrial chain and prioritize support for leading enterprises and key projects, especially in areas where private investment is hesitant [4][5]. Group 3: Balancing Traditional and Emerging Industries - The article stresses the need for a balanced approach that supports both the transformation of traditional industries and the development of new and future industries [5][6]. - Investments should not only focus on new ventures but also on upgrading traditional industries through technology, equipment, and digital transformation [5][6]. Group 4: Hefei's Experience in Government Investment - Hefei has successfully implemented a "government investment bank" model to attract strategic emerging industries, resulting in significant industrial clusters [6][7]. - The city has established a closed-loop mechanism for investment evaluation, ensuring that investments are based on clear industrial logic [6][7]. - Hefei's risk tolerance and exit mechanisms have been designed to encourage investment while ensuring the safety of state capital [7][8]. Group 5: Creation of a "Venture City" Brand - Hefei launched a "Venture City Plan" to shift from government-led investments to attracting proactive capital investments [8][9]. - The city has set up a government-guided mother fund with a total scale of 20 billion yuan, focusing on key and strategic emerging industries [8][9]. - The initiative has attracted over 300 venture capital partners and linked more than 200 funds, significantly boosting the local investment ecosystem [8][9]. Group 6: Economic Growth and Future Prospects - Hefei's comprehensive strength has seen significant improvement, with GDP surpassing 1 trillion yuan and becoming a new growth star in the Yangtze River Delta region [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-effectiveness issues is still ongoing, with the adjustment magnitude having surpassed half but the time insufficient for a complete recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market is within the "two-phase bull market" framework, with the first phase at a high level. The AI industry chain is experiencing a trend that has not yet concluded, leading to a situation where the cost-effectiveness of mid and small-cap stocks is temporarily insufficient [2][3]. - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments approach the bull-bear boundary, it may indicate a mid-term bottom area. However, the challenge lies in waiting for industrial catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [2][3]. - The adjustment in technology growth stocks has reached over half of its potential, but the time required for a complete adjustment remains a challenge. A significant recovery in long-term cost-effectiveness may signal the resumption of an upward trend [2][3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound phase within the high-level adjustment of the bull market 1.0. The overall market adjustment pressure is limited, leaning towards this scenario [4]. - There are two potential scenarios for the spring market: it may either be a rebound within the high-level adjustment phase or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottoming phase [4]. - The spring market is expected to see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical sectors), but upward breakthroughs may be challenging due to high supply growth and limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "policy bottom" may be validated earlier, and cyclical price increases could serve as the foundation for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology sectors [4]. - Technology stocks are likely to experience a general rebound as their adjustment magnitude reaches a critical point. Key areas to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries, as well as AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [4][6]. - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and potential for a more elastic rebound [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a period of decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks has not fully resolved, indicating that while the price adjustment is over half complete, the time for recovery remains insufficient [5] - The spring market is characterized by potential effective rebounds in offensive assets like technology and cyclical stocks, but the upward breakthrough logic may be difficult to realize, suggesting a limited upper range for the spring market [5] - Short-term rebounds are expected, with the "policy bottom" potentially being validated earlier, alongside rising prices in cyclical sectors, indicating that cyclical assets may form the foundation for the spring market [5] Industry Valuation and Comparison - As of November 28, 2025, the valuation metrics for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.0x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 38% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.8x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 42% - ChiNext Index PE at 39.2x, PB at 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 30% and 56% [8][9] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, retail, pharmaceuticals, and IT services, while the medical services sector is below the 15th percentile for both PE and PB [9][10] Global Asset Allocation - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising to 86.4%, up from 71.0% the previous week, driven by a weakening labor market [11] - The decline in the US dollar index below 100 indicates a shift to a weaker position, contributing to an inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing regional financial centers in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for a strong economic foundation, a complete financial market system, and supportive mechanisms to enhance local financial effectiveness [1][2][3]. Group 1: Building Regional Financial Centers - The development of regional financial centers requires a strong regional economic foundation, characterized by a large economic scale and strong growth momentum to attract financial institutions and talent [1]. - A complete financial market system is essential, comprising market entities, financial institutions, trading markets, regulatory mechanisms, and financial infrastructure [2]. - The establishment of supportive mechanisms, including legal frameworks, talent development, credit systems, and financial culture, is crucial for the success of regional financial centers [3]. Group 2: Shanghai's Exploration of Financial Center Models - Shanghai serves as a global financial center, with a complete financial market system that includes a variety of financial institutions and a robust trading market, with 1,782 licensed financial institutions by the end of 2024, one-third of which are foreign [5]. - The city has enhanced its financial service capabilities, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, by implementing platforms for data sharing and financing needs, addressing financing challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - Shanghai's GDP has surpassed 5.3 trillion yuan, with key industries such as integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, further solidifying its role as a national economic engine [7].

11月28日，由新浪财经主办的"第七届金麒麟最佳分析师"榜单揭晓，申万宏源研究荣获"最 具荣耀研究机构"第一名和"最佳研究机构"第六名，22个研究领域分获22项分析师奖项。 策略研究、交运物流、轻工和纺织服装、石油和化工、传媒、房地产、军工、固定收益、 农林牧渔、金融工程、计算机、宏观经济、食品饮料、机器人及高端制造共14个研究领域获 得"最佳分析师"奖项。 非银金融、环保、建筑与建材、新金属材料、海外市场研究、银行、新能源设备、通信研 究等8个研究领域获"菁英分析师"。 | 计算机行业 第7名 | | 洪依真、黄忠煌,崔航,徐 平平,曹峥,刘洋 | | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观经济研究 | 第8名 | 赵伟、陈达飞、屠强、贾东 旭、王茂宇、李欣越、赵 | | 宇、侯倩楠 | | | | 食品饮料行业 第8名 吕昌、周缘 | | | | 机器人及高端 制造行业 | 第9名 | 王珂、李蕾、刘建伟、何佳 霖、胡书捷、苏萌 | 据悉，2025第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选有近700个分析师团队参与，同时汇集上 百家专业金融机构参与投票，涵盖公募基金、私募基金、券商资管等多元买方机构。"最具 ...