Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is currently undervalued in the consumer goods sector, with a potential for a rebound driven by the child-rearing subsidy policy [2][6] - The child-rearing subsidy policy serves as a catalyst for the rotation towards the consumer goods sector, with significant price increases observed in entertainment products, jewelry, and cosmetics, which rose by 123.5%, 119.2%, and 40.5% respectively from January 2, 2025, to July 21, 2025 [2] - The valuation metrics indicate a significant disparity between new consumption and traditional consumer goods, with the weighted P/E ratios for entertainment products, jewelry, and cosmetics at 92.5x, 48.2x, and 45.5x, while the ratios for leisure food, beverages, personal care, and home goods are much lower [2] Group 2 - The mid-term outlook suggests an increased probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector, as the market has already priced in pessimistic expectations for certain industries, including healthcare and essential consumption [3] - The article argues that while the fundamentals of the consumer goods sector may still be improving, the stock prices are poised for a breakout, reflecting future expectations [4] - The investment landscape in Hong Kong is not limited to leading companies, as there is a growing presence of institutional investors, which is expected to sustain high levels of investment in the Hong Kong market [4] Group 3 - The concept of "good housing" is introduced as a structural increment in the real estate market, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance, further supported by the child-rearing subsidy policy [5] - The article highlights the importance of continuous supportive policies for child-rearing, such as free preschool education, which will lower the cost of raising children and enhance birth rates [5] - The introduction of the child-rearing subsidy policy reinforces the bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential bull market driven by structural reforms and supportive policies [6]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels, with a 0.2 billion increase, while service employment showed a shortfall of 0.4 billion compared to potential levels [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [18][106] Group 2 - There is a significant gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita service consumption gap is projected to be 2,093 yuan, indicating a substantial unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - The long-term direction to address "involution" involves shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services [4][107] - As GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization increases, service consumption typically rises, with a historical annual increase of about 0.6% [4][35] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to enhance service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in economic growth drivers from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Recent policy measures include extending legal holidays and encouraging more leisure time for residents, which is expected to boost service demand [6][108] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to regulatory relaxations and increased government support, with a notable growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017 [91][109]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of industry investment value as a comprehensive measure of a company's collaborative ability, technological potential, and long-term development prospects within the industrial chain ecosystem, especially in the context of rapid digital economic growth and technological revolution in China [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Industry Investment Value - Industry investment value is a core basis for evaluating and making decisions by industry investors, focusing on sustainable technological evolution and the ability to integrate into the industrial ecosystem [3][4]. - Many traditional industry-listed companies have not received reasonable industry investment valuations due to static categorization and labeling by investors, which often overlooks their innovative capabilities [4][5]. - The evaluation logic of industry investment value is evolving dynamically due to profound changes in the industrial landscape driven by technological innovation and the digital economy [4][5]. Group 2: Seizing Opportunities in the Digital Economy - The digital economy is reshaping industrial organization and competition, creating opportunities for companies to enhance their investment value by embedding themselves into the new industrial structure [6][7]. - Traditional companies should actively identify their roles within the new "three-stage" digital economy ecosystem, focusing on application scenarios to redefine their industry identity and expand their value boundaries [6][7]. Group 3: Adapting to New Demand Characteristics - The shift from a linear "demand leads supply" model to a dynamic interplay of "demand leads supply" and "supply creates demand" necessitates that companies actively engage with evolving consumer needs [8][9]. - Companies should align with terminal-driven industry chains, enhancing their value creation by embedding themselves within these chains and responding to market changes [9][10]. Group 4: Leveraging Network Hub Advantages - In the information age, companies must transform their flow resources into core competitive advantages, enhancing their investment value through effective flow management [12][13]. - Network hub companies should capitalize on their existing infrastructure and resource aggregation capabilities to transition towards digital value high grounds [12][13][14]. Group 5: Navigating the Transition Between Traditional and Emerging Industries - Traditional industry companies must redefine their identities and break free from outdated perceptions to adapt to the evolving landscape of new business models and high-value emerging industries [15][16]. - Emerging industry companies need to maintain their innovation momentum to avoid falling into the trap of becoming "new traditional industries" as they mature [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved from initial industry self-discipline to a comprehensive policy system that includes supply-side reforms, a unified national market, and factor market reforms, benefiting industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, agriculture, and cyclical goods [1] Group 1: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing supply-side reforms under strict policy constraints, leading to a shift from crude expansion to technology-driven high-quality competition [8][9] - Price stabilization reflects the positive impact of anti-involution measures on alleviating supply excess and enhancing profitability [8] - The industry is undergoing a technological iteration that accelerates market reshuffling, with BC technology leading the transition [8] Group 2: Automobiles - The automotive sector's anti-involution requires higher-level solutions, with companies leveraging technological differentiation to break through market saturation [9] - Consumer diversification is crucial, with brands and products serving as key factors to escape the cycle of internal competition [9][11] Group 3: Agriculture - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is optimizing supply through anti-involution policies, reducing disorderly expansion, and enhancing profitability stability [15][18] - The second quarter saw a slight increase in the breeding stock, indicating a rationalization of production capacity under policy constraints [15][18] Group 4: Cyclical Goods and Materials - The anti-involution policy is driving supply-side contraction and supply-demand rebalancing in the energy and materials sectors, creating opportunities for price elasticity and profitability recovery [19][21] - The cement industry exemplifies the implementation of anti-involution through capacity disposal policies, addressing overproduction issues and aligning with macro policies [22][24][27] Group 5: Macro and Strategy - The current anti-involution policy focuses on "reducing capital expenditure" to achieve capacity clearance, with effects expected to be delayed but lasting [28] - The investment focus for the second half of the year should be on supply-side optimization areas, such as new photovoltaic technologies, emotional premium in automobiles, high-quality pig farming enterprises, and cyclical goods with price elasticity [29]

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive value of listed companies is determined by a multi-dimensional evaluation from diverse investment entities, including financial investors, industrial investors, and other social investors [1][6][7]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Listed Companies - After going public, companies often experience a decline in attention from investors, with over 70% of listed companies receiving fewer than five institutional research visits annually [2][3]. - There is a growing disparity in valuation between different types of listed companies, with traditional industries like banking and oil seeing lower price-to-earnings ratios compared to emerging sectors like technology [4][5]. - The gap between self-evaluation by companies and market valuation is widening, with many profitable companies trading below their book value [5][6]. Group 2: Three Types of Value in Listed Companies - The comprehensive value of listed companies includes financial investment value, industrial investment value, and multi-dimensional social value [7][8]. - Financial investment value reflects the company's performance in financial markets, while industrial investment value indicates its position within the industry and its technological capabilities [8][9]. - Multi-dimensional social value encompasses the company's reputation, social responsibility, and environmental impact, influencing its overall valuation indirectly [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Entities and Their Focus - Financial investors prioritize financial metrics such as profitability and growth potential, while industrial investors focus on technological innovation and market position [10][11]. - Other social investors emphasize corporate social responsibility and environmental sustainability, assessing the company's long-term viability based on these factors [11][12]. - The evaluation criteria of these investment entities can shift based on the company's development stage, affecting their focus on growth versus efficiency [12][13]. Group 4: Comprehensive Value Management - Effective comprehensive value management should be integrated into all levels of corporate governance, including strategic, institutional, and operational management [13][14]. - Companies need to enhance their value creation through innovation and efficient resource management, while also ensuring that their market valuation reflects their intrinsic value [14][15]. - The goal of comprehensive value management is to align the interests of diverse investment entities to collectively enhance the company's overall value [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may decline compared to the first half, with a policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. Despite this, the A-share market remains strong due to stable capital market expectations, anti-involution policies, and the positive impact of technology and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Market Stability - The consensus is that achieving the annual economic growth target is feasible, with a shift in policy focus towards structural adjustments. This suggests that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may be weaker than in the first half, and expectations for growth-stabilizing policies should be moderated [1]. - Stable capital market policies have created a "buffer" against macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a perception that the downside risks for the A-share market are manageable. Even in adverse economic conditions, timely policy responses can mitigate risks [1][2]. - The anti-involution policies have connected short-term economic highlights with mid-term supply-demand improvements, allowing for smoother transitions in the market dynamics between upstream cycles and midstream manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the conditions for a market breakout are expected to be more favorable, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026. This could accelerate the market's reflection of improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [3]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak for the repricing of household deposits, creating a critical window for reallocating assets, which may lead to natural increments in certain investment products that have limited dependence on stock market performance [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The focus of investment is shifting towards undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term opportunities lie in midstream manufacturing that benefits from supply clearing and anti-involution policies [4]. - The AI computing power industry is showing significant improvement, with domestic profit effects expanding, indicating continued investment opportunities in this sector [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a potential leader in the next bull market, with ongoing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, alongside high dividend stocks as attractive investment options [4][5].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 赠书规则 读者只需在文末留言，点赞数最多的前10位读者，即可获赠达利欧的最新作品《国家为什么会破产》1 本。 截止时间：2025年7月23日：20:00。 写在前面的话 2025年初以来 ，在"美国例外论"阶段性被证伪的叙事之下，美元指数持续下行，最大回撤12.5% 。4月"对等 关税"冲击之后，美国金融市场接连出现"股债汇三杀"，再联想到白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）主任斯蒂芬· 米兰（Stephan Miran）在2024年11月发表的所谓的"海湖庄园协议"报告，以及特朗普政府推动稳定币 《GENIUS》法案的积极性，引发了市场对于"去美元化"、美债"安全资产"属性和国际货币体系等问题的热 议。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 太阳底下没有新鲜事。早在1959年，特里芬（Robert Triffin）就断言布雷顿森林体系具有内在不稳定性并预 言其崩溃。他预见到，面对世界其他国家对储备资产日益增长的需求，美国终将过度扩张自身信用，以致出 现美元贬值的信心危机。这一矛盾后来被称为"特里芬两难"。60年年代中期以后，布雷顿森林体系在正式运 行不久后就麻烦不断。面对美元挤兑压力，尼克松政府先于 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 浦聚颖 摘要 稀土是重要的战略资源，我国稀土凭借产能规模和完整产业链，在全球内难被替代。当前全球贸易紧张 局势加剧，我国还有哪些商品具备"难替代性"？ 一、稀土为何是我国重要的战略资源？因在军工等领域有关键作用，且仅我国拥有完备产业链 稀土是15种镧系元素以及钪和钇的总称，在军事和高科技领域具有不可替代的作用。 具体而言，钐和钇 在军工领域应用广泛；钕和镨主要用于新能源领域；铈和镧在芯片制造领域至关重要；镧和钇在航空航 天领域发挥关键作用。 我国稀土产量占全球70%，且在全球稀土进口格局中占据主导地位。 过去近20年，中国稀土产量稳居全 球首位，2024年达27万吨，占全球68.5%。同年，全球其他国家自我国稀土进口占比达37.1%，远高于第 二大进口地区东盟的18.0%。此外，尽管中美贸易摩擦不断，美国对华稀土依赖度仍居高不下，近年来稳 定在75%左右。 我国在稀土领域具备从采选到应用的完备产业链，其他国家难以建立替代供应链 。稀土产业链大致分为 上游的稀土矿采选，中游的氧化物分离、金属冶炼及功能材料制备，下游则涵盖永磁体制造等环节。从 ...

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident [3][7][38] - The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations [3][38] - The market reacted to the data with a temporary decline in the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index, which later recovered, indicating a focus on future inflation expectations [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound include rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services [4][39] - The energy CPI for June increased by 0.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, driven by clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment, indicating the impact of tariffs [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, while core non-rent service inflation rebounded, particularly in medical, transportation, and entertainment services [4][39] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects [5][28][40] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflation increases [5][34][40] - The combination of moderate inflation increases and weakening employment may influence the Fed's decision-making [34][40]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a blast furnace operating rate year-on-year at 0.7% [2][5][8] - Chemical production shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the national grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a migration scale index down by 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8%, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]