探索市场脉动，洞悉行业趋势。申万宏源研究特别推出系列访谈—— "走近申万宏源研究 人" ，我们将聚焦所内的杰出分析师，深刻探索他们的从业经历、研究见解，向您展现分析师 的多面性，带您走进Ta背后的成长故事。 本期"走近申万宏源研究人"带您了解 计算机首席分析师—黄忠煌。 黄忠煌，申万宏源研究 计算机首席分析师 。毕业于厦门大学，毕业后加入申万宏源研究，专注于 计算机产业研究，拥有8年行业研究经验， 深度覆盖AI、云计算、华为链等方向。 获得荣誉：2 021-2023年《新财富》计算机最佳分析师第二名；2024年《新财富》计算机最佳分析 师第四名。 Q&A 对话黄忠煌 01 【 入行初心 】 您是如何进入计算机分析领域的？ 这个领域吸引您的点是什么？ 科技行业最有意思的地方在于，唯一不变的地方就是变化。 除了公开的财报信息，我认为科技公司最重要的研究是 研究公司 治理。 科技行业每隔5-10年都有 重要的变化，过去10年是云计算、国产化，这5年是大模型。技术会迭代，产品有周期，但是优秀的公 司治理，能够帮助公司在技术的蝶变中抓住机会，穿越周期并茁壮成长。申万宏源研究计算机产业研究 的要求是： 对于 深度推荐的公 ...

2025第五届21世纪金牌分析师评选由《21世纪经济报道》发起的年度评选盛事，恪守专业、公正、透明的原则，为广大投资者甄选出最具实力 与价值的分析师及研究机构。本届评选由来自公募基金、保险公司、私募机构、银行理财子公司，以及学界与上市公司核心高管组成的权威专家委 员会，共同为评选结果的专业与公正保驾护航。 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司（简称"申万宏源研究"）创建于1992年，隶属于申万宏源证券有限公司，是中国大陆成立早、规模大、具有 独立法人资格的综合性证券研究咨询机构。截至目前，申万宏源研究拥有300余人的证券研究服务团队，聚焦研究千余家海内外重点上市公司，开 展涵盖宏观经济、行业公司、股票债券及衍生品投资策略、指数与产品设计、制度与发展等综合领域的投资研究，以及产业研究、政策研究，强 调"出思想、建体系"，以培育"百年团队"为梦想，为资本市场提供了以体系见长、长期稳定的专业研究服务。 申万宏源研究获21世纪金牌分析师评选 多项大奖 12月6日，21世纪经济报道主办的2025年第五届"21世纪金牌分析师"评选结果正式揭晓。申万宏源研究荣获"年度践行金融五篇大文章最佳研究 机构"、"年度影响力券商研究所"2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term investments in specific equity indices and stocks, while highlighting the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation space due to these adjustments [2][3]. Group 1: Risk Factor Adjustments - The risk factors for holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 indices for over three years, as well as for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for over two years, have been reduced to 90% [3]. - This adjustment is seen as a policy to encourage long-term capital entry into the market, particularly benefiting state-owned insurance companies that have already allocated a high proportion of new premiums to the market [3]. - The reduction in risk factors is expected to release an equity allocation space in the range of hundreds of billions, which is crucial for increasing the equity investment ratio of insurance funds [3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, potentially characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the technology sector and cyclical assets [4]. - The market is expected to react to policy layouts starting from mid-December, which may trigger the spring rally, alongside the "insurance opening red" phenomenon [4]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a rebound in the technology sector as it transitions from a correction phase to a consolidation phase [4]. Group 3: 2026 Market Style and Rhythm - The first half of 2026 is predicted to be a consolidation phase for the "Bull Market 1.0," favoring cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to transition into a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [5]. - The anticipated improvement in PPI year-on-year in 2026, along with cyclical price increases, positions cyclical assets as foundational for the spring market [5]. - There is a focus on high-dividend opportunities and the potential for a broad rebound in technology stocks, particularly in AI, storage, energy storage, and robotics [5].

Group 1 - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase equity allocations due to a reduction in risk factors for long-term holdings in the CSI 300 and the Low Volatility 100 indices, potentially releasing over 1 trillion yuan in equity investment capacity [6][11][12] - The spring market is expected to be a small-scale rebound within a high-level fluctuation, with policy layouts starting mid-December potentially triggering this seasonal rally [6] - The market style for 2026 is anticipated to shift from a "bull market 1.0" characterized by cyclical and value stocks in the first half to a "bull market 2.0" dominated by technology and advanced manufacturing in the second half [6] Group 2 - A-share valuations as of December 5, 2025, show the CSI All Share Index at a PE of 21.1 and PB of 1.8, indicating it is at the 77% and 39% historical percentiles respectively [8] - The real estate, retail, pharmaceutical, and IT services sectors are currently at or above the 85% historical percentile for PE valuations, indicating high valuation levels [8][9] - The healthcare services sector is noted to be below the 15% historical percentile for both PE and PB valuations, suggesting potential undervaluation [9] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies ten key investment opportunities, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to drive future growth [11][13] - A-share companies' overseas revenue growth is projected to outpace overall revenue growth, with overseas revenue expected to increase by 10.1% in 2024, compared to a decline of 0.8% in overall revenue [16] - The PPI price increase chain in the upstream sector is expected to continue, with specific industries like automotive manufacturing and energy showing signs of improvement [19][20] Group 4 - In November 2025, stock buybacks and increased loan applications surged by 55%, primarily driven by a nearly 18-fold increase in buyback applications [22] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards a recovery, with various sectors showing signs of reversal and supply clearing opportunities [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of local governments leveraging local financial institutions to enhance financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), addressing their financing challenges and contributing to economic resilience and vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Building a Local Financial Service Ecosystem for SMEs - Local governments should utilize local financial resources, focusing on the advantages of local banks and rural banks that are familiar with regional enterprises, to innovate credit granting methods and risk control models [3]. - Establishing a robust risk-sharing and credit enhancement system is crucial for SME financing, requiring local governments to implement mechanisms such as financial risk compensation funds and government-backed financing guarantees [4]. - Innovating financial supply models to create a comprehensive service system tailored to the characteristics of SMEs is essential, with an emphasis on digitalization and scenario-based services [5]. Group 2: Taizhou's Experience in Financial Services for SMEs - Taizhou has developed a specialized financial system for SMEs, primarily through local banks, effectively channeling financial resources to county-level and small enterprises [6]. - The city has implemented a "small bank serving small enterprises" model, with local banks adopting differentiated inclusive finance methodologies to address credit shortages faced by SMEs [6]. - Taizhou has established three platforms to support local financial institutions: a credit information sharing platform, a trademark pledge financing platform, and a credit guarantee fund for SMEs, enhancing financing accessibility and reducing costs [7]. Group 3: Legal Framework Supporting SME Financing - Taizhou has pioneered enterprise credit legislation, with the implementation of the "Taizhou Enterprise Credit Promotion Regulations," which solidifies the achievements of local financial reforms and provides legal support for ongoing improvements [8]. - The unique financial model in Taizhou has facilitated the rapid growth of numerous SMEs with technological advantages, contributing to a significant increase in market entities and the number of listed companies in the region [8].

有别于大众的认识 1） 市场普遍关注人形机器人，我们认为外骨骼机器人或率先放量。外骨骼机器人具备场景清晰、需求明确、技术相对简单、成本快速降低等 条件，随着机器人技术发展，过去外骨骼领域的瓶颈的电池、材料、算法技术有望快速产业化。相比通用人形，外骨骼产业的成熟和需求爆发应 当更快。 2） 市场认为外骨骼的市场空间有限。我们认为在军用、医疗康养、消费和工业领域均有潜在需求，随着产业化推进渗透率将不断提升。预计 中期潜在市场规模为195亿元，若产品持续优化穿戴舒适性、降低单价，市场存在超预期潜力。 "外骨骼"的结构和工作原理与人类骨骼相似。 核心工作原理是构建"感知-处理-驱动-反馈"闭环，实时捕捉人体运动意图，经智能处理输出 机械助力，最终达成自然流畅、具有高度实时性的人机协同运动。其基本功能是增强人体能力，下肢外骨骼增强负重能力和机动能力，上肢外 骨骼增强人的力量和作业能力。 资料来源：傲鲨智能官网，申万宏源研究 下游应用从专业领域走向大众消费。 外骨骼最早的研究出于军队需求，以增加力量、速度、耐力和反应力等，后延伸至民用市场。医疗康 养领域用于康复训练、生活辅助等；工业领域用于减轻体力劳动、降低劳损；消费领 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to develop new financial models that support new factors of production, focusing on value formation, capital support, and ecological collaboration to foster innovative productivity and drive economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Model for New Factors - Local governments should create financial models that serve new factors of production, focusing on financialization, monetization, and securitization to enhance financial services for these new factors [3]. - The financialization of factors is crucial for discovering their prices and enhancing their value, which is essential for financing new factor enterprises [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to explore financialization paths that align with local characteristics, including promoting data factor marketization and establishing data trading platforms [3]. Group 2: Capital Introduction for New Factor Enterprises - There is a need to attract "patient capital" for the high-quality development of new factor enterprises, which often face challenges in obtaining credit due to long R&D cycles and unclear business models [4]. - Local governments should build a capital supply system that includes specialized fund aggregation platforms to improve the efficiency of capital and project matching [4]. - A comprehensive venture capital service system should be established to support project selection, due diligence, and talent introduction, creating an ecosystem for capital and innovation [4]. Group 3: Dual Empowerment of Financial Services and Industry Development - Financial services should be integrated with industry development to create a dual empowerment effect, where digital technology enhances financial capabilities and financial capital accelerates the development of digital industries [5]. - Local governments are urged to promote the deep integration of financial elements with digital industry systems, encouraging collaboration among leading enterprises, platform companies, and financial institutions [5]. - Financial institutions should develop financial products tailored to the characteristics of the digital industry, such as supply chain finance and algorithm-driven credit assessments [5]. Group 4: Case Study of Hangzhou - Hangzhou has innovatively explored a comprehensive financial service model that integrates industry, data, and finance to support the growth of new industries and technologies [6]. - The city has established a data trading center and is implementing regulations to facilitate data assetization and securitization, becoming a pioneer in data trading legislation [6][7]. - Hangzhou's financial innovation has led to the creation of customized financial tools that replace traditional collateral with new factors like talent and intellectual property, effectively supporting the digital economy [8].

聚焦"十五五"战略目标 全面提升金融服务效能（五） 杨成长、龚 芳、陆铭俊 以可得性、适配性、综合性为代表的"三性"是衡量金融服务效能的重要维度。"十五五"期 间，金融机构应转变发展理念，以客户真实需求为导向，通过全面提升金融服务的可得性、适配 性与综合性，最终推动金融与实体经济形成共生共荣的新格局。 金融服务的可得性旨在让各类经营主体都能便捷获取基础金融服务。破解金融服务可得性难 题需要从创新服务模式、优化产品设计、丰富数字渠道和完善信息披露等多个维度协同推进。 金融服务的适配性是提升金融市场资源配置效率的关键。破解金融服务适配性难题要求金融 机构从企业真实财务需求、治理需求、风险需求、运营需求出发，提供更有针对性的金融服务。 金融服务的综合性是金融机构之间通过加强合作，更好满足企业多元综合金融需求的能力。 提升金融服务综合性亟需金融机构在现有分业监管的要求下，加大合作，探索大项目联合服务、 园区金融共同体等机制，更好满足企业的综合金融服务需求。 综合性反映金融体系满足企业多元综合金融需求的能力。随着企业规模扩大与业务复杂化， 单一类型的金融服务已难以满足其多元化、跨周期、全链条的需求。从跨境融资到并购重组 ...

要真正发挥政府基金的引导效应，要完善对地方基金的考核评价机制，提升对地方基金股 权投资亏损的包容度，用基金总投资收益替代单个项目投资收益，进一步强化地方基金在支持 基础研发、共性技术突破及未来产业发展上的基石作用。 三要形成完整正确的产业发展理念，协同推进传统产业转型及新兴、未来产业发展。当前多 数地区的产业体系仍以传统产业为主体，传统产业既是就业和税收的重要来源，也是构建现代化 产业体系的基础。在打造现代化产业体系的过程中，地方政府不能片面追求"新"，也要注重传统 产业的高端化、智能化、绿色化改造。地方政府基金不仅要投新、投早、投小，也要加大对技术 改造、设备更新、数字化升级、绿色转型及应用场景打造等关键环节的投资，通过并购重组、混 合所有制改革等方式激发传统产业活力，形成传统、新兴与未来产业协同发展的态势。 二、以政府投行招商模式打造地方产业集群的合肥经验 近年来，合肥以"政府投行"思维开展招商，聚焦集成电路、新能源汽车等战略性新兴产业， 探索出一条以资本赋能产业、以政府投资撬动新兴产业崛起的发展之路，最终形成"引进一个头 部、培育一个产业、激活一域生态"的集群效应。 合肥充分运用政府投行招商模式，实现股 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 本周市场超跌反弹，但仍在我们推演的"牛市两段论"格局之内。牛市1.0已处于高位区域，AI产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"。这神似2014年初的创业板、2018年初的食品饮料、2021年初的新能源。季度级别的高位震荡后，"怀疑牛市级别"的 调整正在演绎，消化性价比问题。 参考历史经验，当前科技成长调整幅度已过半，但调整时间仍不足。科技调整到牛熊分界线附近，可能就是中期底部区域，目前进程已过半。但 时间到位难度更大，关键是等待产业催化累积和业绩验证消化估值。长期性价比修复到历史中位，可能就是上行趋势重启的节点。这通常需要回 调消化估值和业绩消化估值效果叠加。所以，调整幅度到位后，可能还有一个震荡磨底的阶段。 调整和磨底后，有牛市2.0的判断不变。"牛市两段论"是A股牛市周期的典型特征，2013年结构牛，2015年全面牛，2016-17年结构牛，2020-21年 全面牛，中间都有休整蓄力阶段。当前只是25年结构牛高位区域，26年中，基本面周期性改善 + 科技产业趋势新阶段 + 居民资产配置向权益迁 移 + 中国影响力提升共 ...