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【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果(8.18-8.24)
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-25 02:47
Group 1: Market Overview - The comprehensive bull market requires further accumulation of positive factors, as historically, bull markets are not detached from fundamentals. A solid fundamental basis is essential for a comprehensive bull market [6] - The market perspective remains unchanged: time is a friend of the bull market, with conditions for a bull market being "26 years of cyclical improvement in fundamentals + potential initiation of incremental capital circulation." The market is expected to maintain strength until early September, with limited correction thereafter [6] - After early September, the focus may shift from short-term momentum to mid-term projections, with opportunities arising from breakthroughs in domestic technology chains and advanced manufacturing [7] Group 2: Valuation and Industry Comparison - As of August 22, 2025, the overall PE of the A-share market is 21.2 times, at the 93rd percentile historically. The PE of the Shanghai 50 index is 11.9 times (64th percentile), while the ChiNext index is at 38.9 times (30th percentile) [10][12] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include real estate, steel, construction materials, and power equipment (solar equipment) [10] - The PE of the ChiNext index relative to the CSI 300 is 2.8 times, at the 18th percentile historically, indicating a significant valuation gap [12] Group 3: Household Deposit Migration - The migration of household deposits is still in its early stages, with necessary conditions including improvement in the equity market's fundamentals and a recovery in expected profitability [13] - The current pace of deposit migration has not accelerated comprehensively, and the "stock-property seesaw" effect is no longer present, opening up potential for incremental capital in the equity market [13] - The focus on deposit migration has increased due to the anticipated significant decline in real risk-free interest rates in Q4 2025 [13] Group 4: A-share and Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The recent underperformance of the Hong Kong stock market compared to A-shares is attributed to prior significant gains, internal consolidation needs, and weaker fundamental outlooks for key sectors [14][15] - The liquidity environment in the Hong Kong market remains relatively abundant, with potential for short covering and opportunities for active positioning in technology and consumer sectors [15]
【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】慢下来,会更远、更高、更好
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-25 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a comprehensive bull market in A-shares requires further accumulation of positive factors, with expectations for fundamental improvement by mid-2026 and a need for demand recovery to provide upward elasticity [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market is becoming a consensus, but the logic behind it is not yet fully established, necessitating a solid fundamental basis for a comprehensive bull market [3][4]. - The importance of the stock market in the economic cycle is increasing, with a shift in resident asset allocation towards equity markets, which should be supported by improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Themes - The structural mainline of the comprehensive bull market may be richer than expected, with China's competitive advantages in manufacturing gradually translating into corresponding industry discourse power and profitability [4][9]. - Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and overseas computing chains, which represent opportunities arising from China's deeper integration into global supply chains [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a strong momentum until early September, with limited adjustments anticipated thereafter, as the focus shifts from short-term momentum to mid-term evaluations [7][8]. - The demand-side verification period is crucial, with potential structural mainlines forming after the spring of 2026, which could lead to a slowdown in the bull market if the pace of the market accelerates too quickly [8][9].
【脱水研报】存款回报下降,“储蓄搬家”去向何处?
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-22 12:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of declining deposit rates and the potential reallocation of funds, particularly towards wealth management and insurance products, as well as the equity market, in light of significant deposit maturities in 2025 [2][8]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - As of May 2025, the deposit rates for major banks like ICBC are set at 0.95% for 1-year, 1.05% for 2-year, and 1.25% for 3-year deposits, indicating a significant drop in rates [2]. - In 2025, approximately 52.4 trillion yuan of deposits from the six major banks will mature, with an estimated total of 108.3 trillion yuan across deposit-taking financial institutions [2][6]. Group 2: Fund Reallocation - The outflow of deposits is expected to primarily shift towards wealth management and insurance, with deposits decreasing by 4.3 trillion yuan, while wealth management and insurance premiums are projected to increase by 3.1 trillion yuan and 530 billion yuan, respectively, by June 2025 compared to June 2023 [8]. - Since 2022, the yields on real estate and fixed-income assets have declined, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index has surpassed the risk-free rate, indicating a growing advantage for equity assets [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current trend of deposit migration is different from previous cycles, as real estate yields have turned negative since 2021, prompting residents to seek higher-risk, higher-return assets [11]. - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, and if the profit-making effect spreads, it could lead to an influx of funds into the market, with the previous "stock-property seesaw" issue no longer a concern [11]. Group 4: Insurance Sector Impact - A recent government meeting proposed that insurance companies allocate 30% of new premiums to invest in A-shares, which could potentially bring in an additional 100 billion yuan annually to the equity market [15][19]. - The current investment ratio of insurance in stocks and funds is around 13%, indicating significant room for growth in equity investments [15].
【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】反证牛市:回应三个市场担忧
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-18 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The current market concerns do not pose significant downward risks, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue, with potential for a favorable market performance in Q4 2025 and spring 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Concerns and Outlook - The macroeconomic combination in H2 2025 is unfavorable but will not impact the expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026, as the key verification period for demand may not occur until after 2025 [2][3]. - The structural mainline related to the core narrative of the bull market has not yet established a trend, but this is not expected to hinder the performance of Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 [3][4]. - The potential impact of the expiration of the 90-day pause on US-China tariffs is expected to weaken over time, as trade relations between China and other countries remain stable [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategies - The focus for short-term investments should be on "bull market synchronous assets," particularly in sectors like brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, while also considering high-demand sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing [6][7]. - The structural strategy of "anti-involution" in high market share manufacturing sectors in China aims to build price alliances and enhance industry concentration, particularly in solar energy, chemicals, and key electrical components [6][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to lead in the bull market, with increasing optimism and a high net inflow from mainland investors, indicating a potential for better performance compared to A-shares [7][8].
【脱水研报】赛道百花齐放,潜力靶点或迎新突破——癫痫药物行业深度报告
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-18 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The market perceives a saturated space for anti-epileptic drugs, but there exists a significant treatment gap in epilepsy, with 51.7 million people affected globally as of 2021, and current medications having limited efficacy and notable side effects. New drugs with promising clinical data may address this unmet need [1][3]. Group 1: Treatment Gap in Epilepsy - Approximately 9 million epilepsy patients in China face a treatment gap, with around 30% of patients unable to achieve effective seizure control despite monotherapy or polytherapy [1][3]. Group 2: New Drug Development - The pipeline for anti-epileptic drugs is expanding due to the discovery of new targets and technologies, with breakthroughs expected to fill the unmet market needs. Current anti-seizure medications (ASMs) have limited efficacy and significant side effects [3]. - Notable advancements in overseas clinical trials include Xenon's XEN1101, Longboard's Bexicaserin, and Stoke's Zorevunersen, while domestic progress includes Hainan Haiyao's new generation KCNQ potassium channel activator [3].
热点思考 | 美国贸易协议中的“虚虚实实” (申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-12 01:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].
海外高频 | 特朗普提名米兰为美联储理事(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-12 01:42
Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events - Developed market indices experienced a rebound, with the Nasdaq index rising by 3.9%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the Ho Chi Minh index up by 6.0% and the SENSEX in India down by 0.9% [3][11] - The WTI crude oil price fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce [26][30] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, effective August 7, with exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - On August 6, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total to 50%, effective August 28 [32][33] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a potential slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June decreased by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46]
【脱水研报】重点关注快递和石化行业在“反内卷”政策下的投资策略
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-10 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategies in the express delivery and petrochemical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting the potential for price recovery and structural opportunities in these sectors [1]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to price recovery, with the belief that the "anti-involution" policy aligns with optimizing logistics costs, rather than conflicting with it [2]. - The National Postal Administration's commitment to high-quality industry development and the restoration of price disparities is seen as a positive factor, ensuring that low prices can be adjusted above delivery fees to protect workers' rights and coordinate the national e-commerce supply chain [2]. - Predictions indicate a significant range of net profit for companies within the Tongda system for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the potential impact of price adjustments on profitability [3][4]. Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector's "anti-involution" opportunities are primarily concentrated in high-demand sub-sectors, where high operating rates indicate better current market conditions [5][6]. - The focus should be on the current economic climate of the industry, with high operating rates suggesting a more favorable environment for growth, while the elimination of outdated capacity can enhance this situation [6]. - Key areas within the petrochemical industry expected to see significant "anti-involution" potential include refining, olefins, and polyester, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in these segments [8][11].
【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】牛市氛围不会轻易消失
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-10 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is gradually shifting towards the initiation of a bull market, but there are significant short-term divergences among investors regarding market conditions and expectations [3][4]. Short-term Market Challenges - The market faces several short-term challenges, including expectations of economic slowdown in Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which may not support a breakout in indices [2][3]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has yet to be established, with current high momentum sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing being seen as independent trends rather than the core narrative of the bull market [3][4]. Potential Bull Market Directions - Two potential directions for the bull market structure include: 1. Breakthroughs in domestic technology, particularly in AI and robotics, which could lead to a broader market expansion across infrastructure, hardware, software applications, and business models [3][4]. 2. High global market share manufacturing engaging in anti-involution strategies, which could enhance industry concentration and pricing power [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bull market atmosphere is expected to persist despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Q3, as the long-term supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve by 2026 [4][5]. - Key factors that could impact the bull market sentiment include significant demand declines around mid-2026 and constraints on China's manufacturing competitiveness [5][6]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high growth expectations but may face challenges in maintaining independent performance [7][8]. - The defense and military sector is anticipated to have repeated opportunities before early September, while new consumption sectors may see rotational gains [8][10]. - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted as a potentially leading market in the bull cycle, with a focus on pricing trends that align with fundamental expectations [8][10].
特朗普对等关税进入“数据验证期”
申万宏源研究· 2025-08-06 05:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].