Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply-side reform of small and medium-sized banks, highlighting the coexistence of risks and opportunities, and emphasizes the importance of regional banks that leverage local advantages to compete with national banks in the evolving financial landscape [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply-Side Reform of Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The operational characteristics of small and medium-sized banks are a result of the resonance between regional environments and business strategies. Identifying the survivors and outstanding performers among these banks requires a focus on regional clientele and the strategic arrangement of their assets and liabilities [1][5]. Investment Strategy for the Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to undergo a long-term revaluation driven by several factors: 1) Continuous allocation of long-term funds by insurance and state-owned entities 2) Dissipation of systemic risk concerns 3) Underestimation of the stability of Return on Equity (ROE) [6][7]. - Current A-share listed banks maintain a dividend yield of over 4%, with a premium of more than 2 percentage points over the ten-year government bond yield, indicating a historical high. As the valuation of the banking sector recovers, although dividend yields may decline, the stability of profit growth ensures predictable and sustainable dividends, making bank stocks a scarce high-dividend asset in a low-interest-rate environment [7][11]. Valuation Metrics - The banking sector's ROE has remained stable at around 10%, significantly higher than the 6.7% of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market. Regulatory perspectives emphasize the necessity of reasonable profit growth to maintain financial system stability, suggesting that ROE is likely to remain in the 9%-10% range [11][12]. Investment Focus - Investment should concentrate on: 1) High-quality regional banks with no burdens and high provisions, which are expected to demonstrate growth and should not trade below book value [13]. 2) Banks with stable profit expectations, strong potential funding drivers, and relatively high index weightings, which are mispriced in terms of valuation and ROE expectations [13]. Historical Performance and Recommendations - The company has been a pioneer in researching and tracking regional banks since 2021, successfully recommending stocks like Suzhou Bank and Chongqing Bank, which have shown significant appreciation in value [14].

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a mixed economic environment influenced by various commodity prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by rising food prices and platinum [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was driven by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month decrease, while international oil prices provided some support to PPI, contributing positively from oil and copper prices [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - In contrast, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies that have bolstered domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and household items [3][27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI Performance - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8%, while rental prices showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% [4][30][61]. - The overall demand for services has remained stable, but the rental component, which is a significant part of the service CPI, has not performed as well compared to previous years [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year, with PPI expected to underperform CPI [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices, while low capacity utilization in downstream sectors will continue to suppress PPI recovery [4][35][70].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 4月初关税落地以来，美元汇率不升反降。"去美元化"已成为市场共识，关键问题是：弱美元是周期性的 还是趋势性的，美元再度走强的宏观场景有哪些？ 一、近期美元走弱的驱动？更多受降息预期影响，"周期性"因素主导 近期美元再度大幅走弱，引发市场对"去美元化"叙事的密切关注。 截至7月4日，美元指数已跌破97关 口，一度创2022年以来新低；相较5月12日反弹后的阶段性高点，美元贬值幅度高达4.7%。分国别来看， 美元兑发达经济体货币表现更弱，兑新兴市场也多有贬值。 降息预期的快速升温或是近期美元走弱的主要原因。 6月10日以来，联邦基金利率隐含的年内降息次数 由1.8次最高升至2.7次，10Y美债利率随之快速下行23bp，成为美元走弱的主要驱动。降息预期升温是三 方面因素的共振：通胀低于预期、经济弱于预期、联储官员放鸽。 伊以冲突缓和导致"避险"情绪退坡，美元空头回补，进一步加速了美元回落。 1）近期美元走势与油价 高度相关，随着伊以冲突缓和、油价回落，美元也随之走弱；2）市场做空美元力量也在积蓄，截至6月 24日，美元指数非商业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of an unexpected downturn in the US economy, emphasizing the importance of monitoring unemployment rates and the implications of tariffs on trade and economic growth [1][5]. Economic Forecasts - The IMF has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [2][3]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Key Economic Indicators - A rise in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.6% could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [1][5]. - The article highlights the uncertainty in trade, industrial production, and economic growth due to the implementation of Tariff 2.0 [1]. Currency Trends - There is a possibility of further depreciation of the US dollar, which may lead to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, similar to the situation observed in August-September 2024 [1][9]. - The potential for a gradual depreciation of the dollar may continue if the US government pursues fiscal balance and creates more room for interest rate cuts [9]. Economic Scenarios - The article outlines three possible scenarios for the US economy, indicating the risks associated with stagflation and the "triple whammy" of stocks, bonds, and currency [7][6].

Core Viewpoint - The current anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen the trend of "reducing capital expenditure," leading to a more certain and sustained supply-demand turning point starting in mid-2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policies are reminiscent of the supply-side reforms from 2016-2017, which can be broken down into three core elements: "reducing capacity," "reducing output," and demand-side stimulation [2]. - "Reducing capital expenditure" is an inevitable trend, with the current growth rate of capital expenditure in the midstream manufacturing sector reaching a new low since 2012 [3]. - The impact of "reducing capacity" will manifest in three ways: delayed effects from reduced capital expenditure, abandonment of existing projects, and guiding the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The most significant impact of the current anti-involution is that by mid-2026, the growth rate of fixed asset formation in midstream manufacturing will be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, enhancing the visibility of the supply-demand turning point [4]. - The current low capacity utilization and weak internal investment willingness among enterprises suggest further room for decline in capital expenditure growth [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in the supply-demand dynamics in midstream manufacturing and the easing of the anti-involution narrative are seen as crucial components for a bull market expected in 2026-2027 [8]. - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an investment narrative, enhancing risk appetite, although the current fundamental expectations and profit accumulation are not yet at bull market levels [8][9]. - The focus on high-dividend stocks, including bank shares, is deemed a long-term correct strategy, but short-term dynamics indicate that this trend may not be sustainable [10]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The sectors currently showing significant profit expansion include banking, steel, and electricity equipment, while sectors like defense and non-ferrous metals are experiencing contraction [14]. - The short-term market focus is on sectors such as steel, building materials, and electrical equipment, with expectations of improved profitability in various manufacturing sub-sectors by Q4 2025 [11]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should consider the anticipated structural changes in the market, with a focus on sectors that will benefit from the anti-involution policies and the expected recovery in profitability [11][14]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in the potential bull market, driven by factors such as concentrated IPOs and early dividends [11].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]

来自报告 《 磨底未竟，转折已萌——房地产行业2025年中期投资策略 》 图表：广义的好房子定义 资料来源：住建部、申万宏源研究 以美国经验为鉴，在房地产危机之后，行业经历供给改革，企业进行模式优化，产品力及 库存管理能力强的优质房企穿越周期。 资料来源： Wind 、申万宏源研究 图表：房地产危机前后美国四大房企的杜邦分析 展望中国，预计未来能够缔造好房子产品的企业能行稳致远，产品力强（更高毛利率） +库存管理能力强（更高周转率）的优质房企将胜出。 我们推演房地产发展新模式可能包括：好房子、人房地钱、房屋全生命周期管理、现房销 售制度等，并我们认为，房地产发展新模式的政策本意在于推动房地产行业从金融业回归 制造业。 好房子是政策导向，当前房地产处于好房子存量少+改需正值释放阶段，供给端估算目前 我国城镇住宅存量中高品质住宅渗透率仅为24%，而需求端估算2022-20年改需占比高达 44%，好房子也是行业内生需求、并且预示着广大空间。 资料来源： Wind 、七普、统计局、申万宏源研究 图表：中国好房子的供需分析 我们认为，市场对于好房子的追求也在从硬件层面逐步扩展到软件层面，好房子定义应 为：物理建筑->功 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the implications for asset allocation strategies in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Dollar and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the "Triffin Dilemma" faced by the US dollar, exacerbated by fluctuating tariff policies under Trump, indicating a mid-term rebalancing pressure on dollar assets [1]. - The introduction of dollar stablecoins represents a dual effort by the US government to both centralize emerging cryptocurrencies and tacitly accept the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Despite the emergence of dollar stablecoins, the article warns that they may not provide the expected stability, suggesting a continued strategic outlook on decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The article identifies key areas for the internationalization of the Renminbi, including trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong [8]. - It notes that Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore Renminbi market is crucial for providing high-quality Renminbi-denominated assets, enhancing its strategic importance [8]. - The current level of Renminbi internationalization is deemed to have significant room for improvement, especially when compared to China's GDP and trade volume on a global scale [9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article recommends focusing on non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative asset revaluation opportunities, particularly during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - For tactical asset allocation over the next 3-6 months, it suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; and for the next 6-12 months, it anticipates potential trend opportunities in global equities and risk assets like copper [10]. - It also points out that the allocation of funds in Chinese, Japanese, and European stock markets remains low, indicating significant potential for growth, while US stock market allocations are at high levels and may decrease [10].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the potential for rebalancing in dollar assets due to ongoing trade policies and the emergence of stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar and Stablecoins - The essence of dollar stablecoins reflects the US government's effort to re-centralize emerging cryptocurrencies while tacitly allowing the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Dollar credit is under pressure, and the stability of dollar stablecoins is uncertain, leading to a strategic outlook favoring decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - Future directions for the internationalization of the Renminbi include trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as the largest offshore Renminbi market [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - The article highlights the importance of re-evaluating non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative investment opportunities during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - Tactical asset allocation for the next 3-6 months suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; for the next 6-12 months, global equities and risk assets like copper may present trend opportunities [10].