以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 一、本周市场超跌反弹，但科技成长消化性价比问题的调整，幅度已过半、时间仍不足。 调整幅度时间的历史经验：科技调整到牛熊分界线附近，就是中期底部区域，但 可能出现"幅度到位，时间不足"。时间上，关键是等待产业催化和业绩验证消化估值，长期性价比修复到历史中位，可能就是上行趋势重启的节点。 二、春季行情的级别和定位：进攻资产(科技和顺周期)有效反弹容易出现，但向上突破逻辑难兑现，春季行情上限不高。 春季行情在"牛市两段论"中的定位：春季行情可 能是高位震荡行情中的一波反弹(总体市场更偏向此情形)；或者是调整幅度到位，向震荡阶段过渡的一波反弹(科技更偏向此情形)。 三、短期小幅反弹，春季行情有效反弹。 "政策底"可能提前验证 + 周期涨价 + 26年中PPI同比改善预期，顺周期可能是春季行情的基础资产，看好基础化工和工业技术等 周期Alpha。科技总体调整幅度到位，可能出现普遍反弹。重点关注，性价比矛盾本就较小 + 春季有望兑现产业催化的创新药和国防军工。AI算力、存储、储能、机器人 等也会有反弹机会。港股延续高beta特征，恒生科技调整更充分，反弹波段也会更有弹性。 ...

其次，区域金融中心的发展需要构建起完整的金融市场体系。 区域金融中心是由市场主体、 金融机构、交易市场、监管机制及金融基础设施构成的完整有机整体。过去地方在发展金融上形 成了一些观念上的偏差，比如过度注重吸引金融机构在当地注册，过度激励导致企业扎堆上 市、"带病闯关"等。地方发展区域金融中心一要注重打造培育市场主体的良性生态，要从实质性 优化营商环境、降低企业经营成本的角度为市场主体的落地生根及金融机构的聚集发展创造良好 条件；二要注重交易市场建设，要在全国统一大市场建设的基础上，推进地方金融市场发展，并 且注重地方金融交易市场与当地技术要素市场、数字要素市场、碳交易市场及区域股权市场之间 的衔接和互动，通过完善的交易市场体系来提升市场流动性；三要注重构建清晰的市场运行规则 和监管制度，确保区域金融市场安全、有序、透明、平稳地运行。 最后，区域金融中心的发展需要一系列配套的保障机制。 区域金融中心的打造不仅要着眼于 硬件设施、市场规模，更要注重法律法规、人才队伍、信用体系及金融文化等软环境建设。要健 全信用体系与创新机制，完善征信、评级、担保、风险补偿等基础制度；要持续推进金融高水平 对外开放，推进金融市场制 ...

11月28日，由新浪财经主办的"第七届金麒麟最佳分析师"榜单揭晓，申万宏源研究荣获"最 具荣耀研究机构"第一名和"最佳研究机构"第六名，22个研究领域分获22项分析师奖项。 策略研究、交运物流、轻工和纺织服装、石油和化工、传媒、房地产、军工、固定收益、 农林牧渔、金融工程、计算机、宏观经济、食品饮料、机器人及高端制造共14个研究领域获 得"最佳分析师"奖项。 非银金融、环保、建筑与建材、新金属材料、海外市场研究、银行、新能源设备、通信研 究等8个研究领域获"菁英分析师"。 | 计算机行业 第7名 | | 洪依真、黄忠煌,崔航,徐 平平,曹峥,刘洋 | | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观经济研究 | 第8名 | 赵伟、陈达飞、屠强、贾东 旭、王茂宇、李欣越、赵 | | 宇、侯倩楠 | | | | 食品饮料行业 第8名 吕昌、周缘 | | | | 机器人及高端 制造行业 | 第9名 | 王珂、李蕾、刘建伟、何佳 霖、胡书捷、苏萌 | 据悉，2025第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师评选有近700个分析师团队参与，同时汇集上 百家专业金融机构参与投票，涵盖公募基金、私募基金、券商资管等多元买方机构。"最具 ...

杨成长、龚 芳、袁宇泽、曾培春 近年来，我国传统产业的组织形式和产业关联关系发生重大变革，新技术、新业态、新模式 不断涌现，成为我国经济高质量发展的重要组成部分。金融机构亟须构建匹配新经济产业发展需 求的金融服务新模式，重点服务好新消费、新科技、新数字、新终端及未来产业等五类新业态。 五类产业新业态对金融服务提出了全新要求：在新消费领域，金融服务的核心难点在于无形 资产估值和对商业模式的可持续性作出判断；在新技术领域，突出表现为技术路径判断难和信息 不对称；在新数字领域，亟待建立科学的估值体系和资本市场支持机制；在新终端领域，需要全 链条生态化金融解决方案；在未来产业领域，关键在于形成对共性基础技术突破和产业成果转化 的多元长期资金供给机制。 基于各业态的独特性，要加快形成五类产业金融服务模式：一是以多元价值和新型供求关系 为核心，形成新消费产业金融服务模式；二是以科技创新风险分配为核心，形成新技术产业金融 服务模式；三是以数字集成和人工智能为核心，形成新数字产业金融服务模式；四是以全链条融 合化为核心，形成新终端产业金融服务模式；五是以"三突破三风险"为核心，形成未来产业金融 服务模式。 近年来，伴随我国要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bull market is far from over, and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble may be premature, suggesting that it might not be a true "bubble" yet [2] Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates that many investors are worried about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence sector, but this could be an overreaction [2] - Historical trends show that technological advancements often face skepticism before achieving widespread acceptance and growth [2] - The potential for artificial intelligence to drive significant economic growth and innovation remains strong, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Core Insights - The 2025 Science and Technology Innovation Conference was held in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Science and Technology Innovation Leading the Way, Smartly Starting a New Journey" [2] - The conference featured discussions on the core trends of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, emphasizing how technology empowers industrial upgrades and reshapes future ecosystems [2] Group 1 - The "2025 Science and Technology Innovation Board White Paper" was released for the sixth consecutive year, providing a comprehensive review of the board's evolution in areas such as issuance pricing, mergers and acquisitions, index systems, and investor structure [4] - The white paper highlights six key areas supported by the Science and Technology Innovation Board, including low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and artificial intelligence, along with detailed industry chain maps and potential listed companies [4] - A new "Top 50 Value Companies of the Science and Technology Innovation Board 2025" list was published, along with six recommendations for investors, focusing on growth valuation, attracting long-term capital, and increasing foreign participation [4] Group 2 - The participation of Shenwan Hongyuan in the white paper underscores its research team's expertise in the science and technology sector and its strategic vision for emerging capital markets [6] - The company aims to facilitate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, nurture high-quality innovation enterprises, and invigorate the capital market's innovative momentum, contributing to the construction of a strong technological nation [6] - The conference also saw the launch of the "Artificial Intelligence+" international cooperation promotion platform in Shanghai, indicating a commitment to advancing AI initiatives [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China's financial system to transition from real estate finance to movable asset finance, driven by the shift towards innovation-driven economic development during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6][7][8]. Group 1: Economic Transition and Financial System Challenges - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the financial system explored ways to enhance the market-oriented allocation of factors and promote the development of innovative elements, but it still faces challenges in serving new asset types [8][12]. - The transition from traditional asset-driven models to innovation-driven models is crucial, with technology, digital, and green resources becoming core elements of enterprise asset structures [9][10]. - The financial system's traditional reliance on collateral and stable cash flows is increasingly incompatible with the new operational models of enterprises that focus on new elements and assets [11][12]. Group 2: New Elements and Assets - The rapid development of movable new elements will reshape enterprise asset structures, with intangible assets like patents and data becoming significant components [10][11]. - New elements are characterized by intangibility, high liquidity, and value increment, posing challenges for traditional financial services that rely on clear ownership and stable cash flows [11][12]. Group 3: Financial System's Three Major Challenges - The financial system faces three main challenges in serving new asset types: difficulties in asset recognition, valuation, and investment [13][14]. - The lack of clear standards for recognizing and accounting for new elements, such as data and green assets, complicates their financialization [14][15]. - Valuation of new elements is challenging due to their dependence on unstable cash flows and the absence of comparable market standards [16][17]. Group 4: Recommendations for Financial System Reform - Financial institutions should enhance their service capabilities for new elements by improving the recognition and valuation processes, and by facilitating the circulation and investment of these assets [20][21]. - Establishing a modern financial system that accurately reflects the changes in asset structures due to technological, digital, and green transformations is essential [21][22]. - Developing a multi-dimensional evaluation framework to improve the valuation and pricing capabilities for new elements and assets is necessary [23][24]. Group 5: Market Development and Investment Tools - Accelerating the construction of markets for technology, data, and green elements is vital for facilitating the trading and circulation of new assets [25][26]. - There is a need to create more investment tools that align with the risk-return characteristics of modern new elements, encouraging financial institutions to innovate their service models [28][29]. - Promoting the development of a multi-layered green element market will help internalize costs and benefits, enhancing the efficiency of green resource allocation [27].

Core Viewpoint - The bull market is far from over, and concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble may be premature, suggesting that it might not be a true "bubble" yet [2] Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates a strong belief in the sustainability of the bull market, particularly in sectors related to artificial intelligence [2] - Analysts are observing that while some investors express caution regarding AI investments, the underlying fundamentals may still support growth [2] - The potential for AI technologies to drive significant economic value is highlighted, suggesting that the market may be underestimating their long-term impact [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a unified credit market in China as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the need for a robust credit system to enhance market efficiency and support economic development [6][10]. Group 1: Importance of Credit System - A sound credit system is essential for improving financial services to the real economy and is a key component of the socialist market economy [7][8]. - The credit system's development has been prioritized since the 18th National Congress, with significant progress in top-level design and infrastructure [9][10]. Group 2: Current Challenges in Credit Market - The credit service coverage is narrow, and the proportion of credit financing remains low, with many small and micro enterprises lacking access to credit [11][12]. - The credit infrastructure is not fully developed, leading to barriers in data sharing and retrieval, which hampers effective credit assessment [14][23]. - Credit rating and pricing mechanisms are insufficient, with a lack of differentiation in credit ratings among companies, limiting the market's ability to reflect true credit risk [15][13]. Group 3: Strategies for Improvement - The 14th Five-Year Plan calls for accelerating the construction of a unified credit market, focusing on enhancing credit infrastructure and integrating credit data across departments [16][21]. - Emphasis on the need for a paradigm shift in how credit is perceived, treating it as a valuable asset rather than merely a risk assessment tool [18][20]. - Middleman institutions must improve their credit assessment capabilities, transitioning from static evaluations to dynamic, real-time assessments [19][25]. Group 4: Enhancing Credit Management - Companies should adopt a credit-as-asset mindset, integrating credit management into their strategic operations to enhance long-term sustainability [20][29]. - Establishing a support system for small and micro enterprises to improve their credit management capabilities through training and public platforms [30][29].