申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 一、短期调整的背景是，市场轮涨补涨行情充分演绎，市场稳定性略有下降。7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判并非低于预期，只是未提供新的 突破线索。带领市场进一步突破的主线结构尚未确立，市场调整回归震荡市。在调整波段中，市场将会消化2025下半年经济增速预期回落 + 政策 重点仍偏向调结构的预期。 8月市场回归震荡市，9月3日阅兵前可能还有上涨波段。中期观点不变：时间是牛市的朋友，核心是时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入A股的朋 友。维持25Q4好于25Q3的判断，2026年会更好的判断。 我们对短期调整背景的理解：前期市场突破后，演绎高切低行情，虽然叠加了反内卷 + 雅鲁藏布江水电站工程，驱动周期修复，但本质上还是轮 涨补涨、寻找牛市主线的过程。但随着轮涨补涨行情演绎趋于充分，赚钱效应扩散至高位，短期市场稳定性略有下降。此时市场迫切需要重新聚 焦主线，暂时求而不得，引发了调整。 7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判的结果，低于资本市场部分过度乐观的预期，被视作触发调整的事件性催化。但在我们看来，7月政治局会议稳 增长相关内容，更多偏向于督 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting increasing divisions within the Fed regarding potential rate cuts and the resulting impact on global markets [2][3][7]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking a period of inaction since Trump's presidency [3][6]. - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3][6][7]. - Revisions to previous months' non-farm payroll data showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [3][6]. Market Reactions - The weak employment data triggered a "recession trade" in global equity markets, leading to declines in most equity assets and significant drops in metal commodities [3][6][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase, remaining below 100 [3][6][7]. Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow of capital from the Chinese stock market, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion, while foreign investors saw an inflow of $882 million [3][6]. - In the past week, global funds saw significant inflows into U.S. and European markets, while Chinese equity funds experienced substantial outflows [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The Earnings Risk Premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight recovery in valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [3][6]. - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48% [3][6]. Sector Performance - In the U.S. equity market, funds flowed into financials, industrials, and infrastructure sectors, while healthcare, energy, and technology sectors saw outflows [11]. - In the Chinese market, capital flowed into financials, technology, and materials sectors, with outflows from real estate, infrastructure, and healthcare sectors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes that listed companies are not solely the assets of major shareholders but are jointly owned by diverse investors, necessitating a comprehensive value management approach to align the differing expectations and evaluations of various investor types [1][6][7]. Group 1: Importance of Diverse Investor Participation - The trend of socialized ownership in A-share companies is evident, with the proportion of institutional and government holdings decreasing from 50.7% in 2018 to 42.0% in 2024, while individual and professional investors' share is increasing [7]. - The participation of diverse investors is crucial for the development of listed companies, especially in sectors like biotechnology and information technology, where early-stage financial and industrial investments are vital for overcoming innovation challenges [8]. Group 2: Comprehensive Value Management - Comprehensive value management aims to transform the divergences among diverse investors into a collaborative force for high-quality development, focusing on balancing financial stability, technological innovation, and social responsibility [6][10]. - Companies must respect the value preferences of various investors and integrate their investment needs and returns through comprehensive value management [11][12]. Group 3: Addressing Discrepancies Among Investors - Discrepancies between financial investors and major shareholders pose challenges for value management, as financial investors prioritize short-term performance while major shareholders focus on long-term growth [13][14]. - Companies should optimize shareholder balance mechanisms to guide collaboration between large and small shareholders, ensuring that both short-term and long-term interests are addressed [15][16]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology Development - Discrepancies between industrial investors and company management regarding technology innovation can hinder progress, necessitating a collaborative approach to align interests and drive innovation [17][18]. - Companies should establish inclusive decision-making processes that involve management, technical teams, and industrial investors to foster a shared understanding of technology paths and innovation outcomes [19]. Group 5: Risk Sharing Mechanisms - Financial and industrial investors often have differing risk preferences, complicating the establishment of effective risk-sharing mechanisms in innovation [20][21]. - Companies should adopt diversified financing strategies to distribute risks among various investor groups, enhancing stability and flexibility in funding [22][23]. Group 6: Balancing Economic and Social Values - Social investors emphasize long-term societal impacts over short-term economic gains, presenting challenges for companies in balancing these interests [24][25]. - Companies should implement comprehensive value management to achieve a balance between economic performance and social responsibility, ensuring that both short-term and long-term values are considered [26][27]. Group 7: Role of Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurs play a crucial role in shaping the public image and social value of companies, influencing investor perceptions and market performance [27]. - Companies should leverage the positive social value of entrepreneurs while being mindful of the potential negative impacts of their actions on corporate reputation [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic conditions. The meeting sets the stage for the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for high-quality economic development and structural reforms [2][3][4]. Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target. This performance is noted despite external pressures, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][4]. - The meeting removed the phrase "external shocks are increasing" from its risk assessment, indicating a more optimistic outlook while still stressing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking [2][3][4]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, particularly focusing on supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4][17]. - It emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and improve the effectiveness of fiscal measures, including the issuance of government bonds, which had a progress rate of 50.6% as of July 13, lower than the same period in previous years [4][17]. - The monetary policy discussion did not mention interest rate cuts but introduced measures to lower the overall financing costs for society, indicating a shift towards enhancing the transmission of monetary policy [4][17]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting placed greater emphasis on cultivating service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives to stabilize consumer demand [5][18]. - It reiterated the importance of "high-quality" investments and the prohibition of new hidden debts, aiming to mitigate risks in key sectors while promoting urban renewal and infrastructure development [7][19]. - The concept of "anti-involution" was highlighted, focusing on regulating competition among enterprises and fostering industries with international competitiveness [5][18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of multi-dimensional social value for listed companies, highlighting the need for companies to reshape their social image and become long-term value creators by focusing on credit, green, cultural, and strategic values [1][2][3]. Group 1: Multi-Dimensional Social Value - Listed companies play a significant role as influential social entities, with their social behavior being a focal point of market attention [2]. - The evaluation of social value is multi-faceted, involving various stakeholders such as financial investors, employees, consumers, and non-profit organizations, each with different perspectives [2][3]. - The social value of listed companies is interconnected, forming a unified value system where credit value serves as the foundation [4]. Group 2: Enhancing Credit Value - Credit value reflects a company's ability and willingness to fulfill commitments, impacting its social trust capital [5]. - Companies should prioritize integrity and brand building to enhance credit value, addressing shortcomings in credit management and information disclosure [6][8]. - High-quality information disclosure is crucial for improving credit value, with companies encouraged to adopt transparent practices and actively communicate their values [8][9]. Group 3: Green Value Development - Green value is defined as a company's ability to transform ecological responsibilities into sustainable competitiveness through green technology innovation [10]. - The relationship between green ecological value and market performance is significant, with compliance to environmental standards becoming a new market entry barrier [11]. - Companies should integrate green technology investments into their strategic planning to balance short-term performance with long-term sustainability [12][13]. Group 4: Cultural Value Enhancement - Cultural value encompasses a company's ability to guide social cultural development and meet residents' quality of life needs [15][16]. - Companies face challenges in aligning their products and services with consumer demands for high-quality living, often lacking in cultural value management [17][18]. - To enhance cultural value, companies should focus on innovative offerings that resonate with consumer aspirations and cultural identity [19][20]. Group 5: Strategic Value Integration - Strategic value refers to a company's alignment with national development goals, leveraging core technologies and regional resources [21][22]. - Companies must actively integrate their strategies with national priorities to uncover new opportunities and expand their development space [23][24]. - Strategic resources associated with national policies can provide significant support for companies, enabling them to pursue new business avenues [25].

Core Viewpoint - The market perceives the consumer-grade 3D printing sector as having limited growth potential and low barriers to entry, leading to insufficient investment value. However, a thorough analysis of the industry chain reveals significant growth opportunities driven by factors such as exports to Europe and the U.S. and the influence of trendy toys, with the market expected to reach approximately $50 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 19% [2][17]. Industry Overview - Consumer-grade 3D printers are designed for individual users and small businesses, characterized by ease of use and relatively low costs, also referred to as desktop or entry-level 3D printers [3]. - The consumer-grade 3D printing equipment represents a typical case of high-end industrial technology being adapted for consumer market applications [6]. Market Dynamics - The synergy between trendy toys and 3D printing is expected to enhance both sectors: 3D printing will enable better realization of creative ideas in trendy products, while the popularity of trendy IPs will boost the demand for consumer-grade 3D printers, with a new economic model for 3D printing farms anticipated to emerge in China starting in 2024 [10][11]. - The demand for desktop 3D printing equipment is rapidly increasing due to the innovative culture in Europe and the U.S., alongside the "maker movement," which promotes the widespread application of these devices and a high willingness to pay for exploration of interests and technologies [13][15]. Market Size and Growth Projections - The global consumer-grade 3D printer market reached $2.503 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to $7.1 billion by 2028, corresponding to a market space of approximately 500 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate of 19% [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply-side reform of small and medium-sized banks, highlighting the potential for regional banks to thrive through local advantages and strategic positioning in a changing financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform of Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The operational characteristics of small and medium-sized banks are a result of the resonance between regional environments and business strategies [3]. - Identifying the survivors and outstanding performers among small and medium-sized banks requires a focus on regional clientele and the reflection of their strategic asset-liability management [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy in the Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to undergo a long-term revaluation driven by factors such as the continuous allocation of long-term funds by institutional investors, the alleviation of systemic risk concerns, and the undervaluation of ROE stability [6][11]. - Current A-share listed banks maintain a dividend yield of over 4%, which is more than 2 percentage points above the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicating a historical high [6][8]. - The stability of profit growth in listed banks ensures predictable and sustainable dividends, making bank stocks a scarce high-dividend asset in a low-interest-rate environment [7][11]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics and Performance - The ROE of listed banks has remained stable at around 10%, significantly higher than the 6.7% of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market [11]. - The banking sector's PE ratio is below 7, the lowest in the industry, indicating overly pessimistic expectations and suggesting that a correction in bank stock valuations is inevitable [11][12]. Group 4: Focus Areas for Investment - Investment should concentrate on high-quality regional banks with no burdens and high provisions, which exhibit growth potential and should not trade below book value [14]. - Additionally, banks with stable profit expectations, strong potential for capital inflows, and relatively high index weight should be prioritized for investment [14]. Group 5: Historical Context and Research Commitment - Since 2021, the company has been committed to closely tracking regional banks, successfully recommending stocks like Suzhou Bank and Chongqing Bank, which have shown significant market performance [15][18].

把握"反内卷"政策下的跨行业投资机遇 "反内卷"政策已从初期的行业自律升级为供给侧2.0、全国统一大市场和要素市场化改革协同并进 的政策体系，光伏、汽车、农业、周期品率先受益。光伏的产能出清与技术迭代、汽车的差异化 破局、农业的盈利稳定性提升、周期品的供需再平衡，共同构成近期结构性行情主线。宏观上， 政策需平衡短期阵痛与长期转型，但企业盈利修复与市场预期扭转已初现曙光。 中央财经会议剑指"土地低价出让"和"五险一金套利"，直击内卷的制度土壤。这揭示出反内卷的 层次性:短期靠行业自律，长期需全国统一大市场、要素市场化改革！ 主要内容： "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么? 反内卷与技术迭代有望重塑行业格局-光伏行业投资策略 消费正在多样化，品牌和产品是走出内卷的重要砝码-中长期维度的投资框架补充(1) 【申万宏源电新】 反内卷与技术迭代有望重塑行业格局 -光伏行业投资策略 资料来源： iFinD ，申万宏源研究 二季度能繁存栏环比微增,"反内卷"下重视优质猪企长期价值-农林牧渔周观点 "反内卷"政策下，能源及材料投资机会梳理-新材料与投资品产业链点评 重视水泥"反内卷"与产能处置-"周期建材继往开来"系列一：水泥复 ...

Group 1 - Industrial production shows divergence, with slight recovery in blast furnace operating rates, up 1.2% year-on-year [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - Construction industry shows mixed performance, with nationwide grinding operating rates down 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] Group 2 - Real estate transactions have seen a rebound, with average daily transaction area for new homes up 20% year-on-year, although still weak [1][29] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with year-on-year increases of 5.2% for cargo and 6.3% for container throughput [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 3 - Agricultural product prices show divergence, with egg and vegetable prices up 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the South China industrial product price index up 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices increased by 4.0% and metal price index by 4.1% [2][63]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption-level 3D printing market is expected to grow significantly, driven by factors such as the export demand from Europe and the US, as well as the influence of trendy toys, with a projected market size of approximately $50 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 19% [2][15]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The consumption-level 3D printing market is anticipated to reach $7.1 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from a market size of $2.503 billion in 2022 [15][16]. - The demand for desktop-level 3D printing devices is being driven by the "maker movement" and innovative culture in Europe and the US, leading to a projected export value of $1.147 billion for China in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.09% [11]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The consumption-level 3D printing devices represent a significant shift of high-end industrial technology into the consumer market, characterized by ease of use and lower costs [3][6]. - The synergy between trendy toys and 3D printing is expected to enhance both the creativity of toy products and the sales of consumption-level 3D printers, with new economic models emerging in China starting in 2024 [9][11].