Group 1 - The "19th Sell-Side Analyst Crystal Ball Award" was announced on December 26, with Shenwan Hongyuan ranking third in the "Local Gold Medal Research Team" category and fourth in "Best Research Institution," "Most Influential Institution," and "Best Service Institution" categories [1][4] - The awards recognized various research teams, with the Basic Chemicals and Beijing Stock Exchange research teams winning first place, while Strategy, Petrochemicals, and Transportation teams secured second place [1][3] - The event has been held since 2007, aiming to identify the best securities research institutions and analysts in China, with participation from 827 research teams across 43 research institutions this year [4] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is one of the earliest and largest independent securities research consulting institutions in mainland China, with a research team of over 300 members [4][6] - The institution focuses on research of over a thousand key listed companies both domestically and internationally, covering areas such as macroeconomics, industry companies, stock and bond investment strategies, and policy research [4][6] - The organization emphasizes the development of a systematic approach to research, aiming to cultivate a "century-old team" to provide stable and professional research services to the capital market [4][6]

Key Points - The article emphasizes the importance of systematic and practical strategies in investment analysis [2] - It discusses the favorable conditions for the spring market rally, including liquidity support and upcoming events that may influence market sentiment [8] - The article provides a detailed valuation comparison of various A-share indices, highlighting their current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios relative to historical percentiles [11][13] - It identifies specific industry sectors with high valuations, such as real estate and electronics, which are above the 85th percentile historically [11] - The article outlines investment themes for the upcoming year, including quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and brain-machine interfaces, indicating potential growth areas [16][18] - A strategic outlook for gold in 2026 is presented, focusing on the implications of the U.S. fiscal deficit and the trend of de-dollarization on gold prices [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of fluctuations in early 2026 due to concentrated inflows into the CSI A500 ETF and other factors. However, favorable conditions for the spring market remain intact, suggesting a focus on thematic opportunities rather than traditional cyclical plays [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market has shown a significant liquidity-driven rally, with the CSI A500 ETF experiencing concentrated inflows, indicating a rapid influx of new capital [2][5]. - Factors supporting the spring market include: 1. Loose market liquidity, with private equity firms increasing purchases and insurance companies potentially reallocating to A-shares due to high premium growth [5]. 2. A continuous time window supporting risk appetite, highlighted by key events such as the Spring Festival in February, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article suggests a focus on "non-main battlefield" spring themes, where opportunities lie in thematic investments rather than traditional cyclical sectors like AI and beta plays, which are currently limited [6][7]. - Thematic rotations are expected in spring, including: 1. Industrial themes (e.g., commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion). 2. Funding themes (e.g., from CSI A500 to insurance allocations). 3. Policy themes (e.g., Hainan, service consumption) [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook remains bullish, with a two-phase bull market anticipated: the first phase being a structural bull market in technology, currently at a high level, and the second phase expected in the second half of 2026, driven by fundamental improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [7][9]. - The spring market is characterized by a lack of capital scarcity and favorable time windows, suggesting widespread profit-making opportunities across various themes [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes the "Shenwan Hongyuan Research Elite Training Camp," aimed at nurturing talent in the investment research field, offering free training and internship opportunities for students pursuing master's degrees or higher, regardless of their major [2][8][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan Research was established in 1992 and is a comprehensive securities research consulting institution in mainland China, aiming to become a globally influential research-oriented financial advisor [3]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals focusing on more than 1,000 key listed companies both domestically and internationally, covering various investment research areas including macroeconomics, industry analysis, and investment strategies [6]. Group 2: Training Program Details - The training camp is designed to enhance participants' understanding of the capital market, providing a comprehensive curriculum that includes core methodologies, financial analysis, and report writing [10][11]. - The program features a strong lineup of industry experts, including macroeconomists and top analysts, offering practical insights and mentorship [13]. - The initiative is free for selected participants, emphasizing its non-profit nature and commitment to developing industry talent [13][14]. Group 3: Application Process - The application deadline for the program is February 15, 2026, with the training commencing in March 2026 [16]. - The program includes various activities such as career counseling, practical workshops, and a final presentation where participants can showcase their skills to potential employers [16][19].

申万宏源研究 获上证报最佳分析师评选多项荣誉 在12月26日举办的"潮涌太湖湾"2025上证（无锡）新质生产力研讨会暨第七届上证最佳分析 师评选颁奖仪式上，2025上证鹰·上证最佳分析师榜单正式出炉。申万宏源研究荣获"最具影响力研 究机构"奖，研究所总经理王胜获"最佳研究所所长"奖。 上证鹰·上证最佳分析师评选是上海证券报推出的证券行业年度大型活动，2019年首次举办。 2025年今年9月，上海证券报正式启动"2025上证鹰·上证最佳分析师"评选。最终，来自24家券商的 158个个人、团队及机构获奖。 申万宏源研究 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司（简称"申万宏源研究"）创建于1992年，隶属于申万宏源 证券有限公司，是中国大陆成立早、规模大、具有独立法人资格的综合性证券研究咨询机构，拥 有300余人的证券研究服务团队，聚焦研究千余家海内外重点上市公司，开展涵盖宏观经济、行 业公司、股票债券及衍生品投资策略、指数与产品设计、制度与发展等综合领域的投资研究，以 及产业研究、政策研究，强调"出思想、建体系"，以培育"百年团队"为梦想，为资本市场提供了 以体系见长、长期稳定的专业研究服务。 " 最佳分析师"奖项中，投 ...

申万宏源宏观团队 赵伟/贾东旭/侯倩楠 本周首推 有别于大众的认识 相比市场预期，我们对本次经济工作会议财政货币政策表述更为积极乐观。 其中，央行的职能目标扩展至"促进经济稳定增长"与"物价合理回 升"，结构性货币政策工具和政策性金融工具将发挥更主导的作用，甚至部分承担财政功能。 2025 年中央经济工作会议提出的五个 "必须" 与 2024 年五个 "统筹" 逻辑呼应，突出经济潜能挖掘、政策改革协同等导向；直指 "供强需弱" 核心痛点；2026 年经济目标侧重总量引领，强调质的有效提升和量的合理增长，契合 "十五五" 开局稳增长诉求。 财政政策延续 "更加积极" 取向，强调保持必要赤字与债务规模，聚焦地方财政困难与化债工作；货币政策以稳增长、促物价合理回升为目 标，拟灵活运用降准降息工具，通过中小金融机构提质畅通传导机制；新增强调存量与增量政策集成效应，扩大宏观政策取向一致性评估范 围。 经济工作中，坚持内需主导仍是首位，会议提出通过居民增收、服务消费提质、扩大预算内投资等稳消费稳投资。深化改革攻坚仍是重 点，会议提出纵深推进统一大市场建设、深入整治 "内卷式" 竞争。强化 "双碳" 引领位置前移，明确提出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shenwan Hongyuan Research was awarded the "Best Golden Bull Research Institution" at the 2025 Wealth Allocation and Asset Management Conference held by China Securities Journal, with 12 research fields recognized for the "Best Golden Bull Analyst" awards [1][7] - The conference featured a roundtable forum with Dong Liang, Vice Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, discussing the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, including market trends, styles, positive factors, and investment opportunities [3] - The "Golden Bull Analyst Award" has been held annually since 2010, aiming to showcase outstanding institutions and analysts in the securities research field, encouraging continuous improvement in research capabilities and enhancing the industry's social influence [7] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research consulting institution under Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd., with over 300 research service team members focusing on more than 1,000 key listed companies domestically and internationally [9] - The institution conducts extensive investment research covering macroeconomics, industry companies, stock and bond investment strategies, product design, and policy research, emphasizing the development of a long-term stable professional research service [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan has been recognized as one of the most influential research institutions and best research teams for 23 consecutive times, highlighting its consistent performance in the industry [2] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - Shenwan Hongyuan received a total of 25 awards at the recent analyst conference, including first place for Sustainable Development Research Contribution for the fourth consecutive time [4] - The firm ranked fourth in both the Best Research Team and Most Influential Research Institution categories [4] Group 2: Research Team Achievements - The Light Industry and Paper Research Team has achieved first place 15 times, while the Light Industry and Textile Apparel Research Team has been first for seven consecutive times [5] - The Chemical Research Team secured first place, and the Strategy Research Team ranked second [5] - Other notable rankings include second place for the Transportation and Warehousing Research Team, and third place for the Computer Research Team [5] Group 3: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Securities Times and involved participation from nearly 50 securities firms and over 2000 analysts, with voting eligibility extended to more than 800 domestic and international institutions managing assets exceeding 100 trillion yuan [5] - The conference aims to promote high-quality development in the Chinese securities research industry and support the modernization of China's economy [5] Group 4: Company Background - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is one of the earliest and largest independent securities research institutions in mainland China, with a team of over 300 professionals [6] - The firm focuses on research across various sectors, including macroeconomics, industry companies, investment strategies, and policy research, emphasizing a systematic approach to provide stable professional research services [6]

1 2 . 8 - 1 2 . 1 4 周度研究成果 申 万 宏 源 策 略 研 究 团 队 目录 一周回顾 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一周回顾 1、 【大势研判】宏观环境"还原"，A股向上空间受限未变——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08-25/12/13) 2、 【行业比较】A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报——行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212） 3、 【资产配置】美联储降息落地，权益与商品分化涨跌互现——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251205-20251212) 1、 再提"实现量的合理增长" ——2025年12月政治局会议点评 2、 战略定力——中央经济工作会议点评 3、 11月中国与新兴市场流入加速，发达市场流入减速——全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年11月） 【大势研判】宏观环境"还原"，A股向上空间受限未变——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08- 1 25/12/13) 一周回顾 2025.12.13 一、11月下旬以来，A股市场面临的宏观环境出现了"还原"，风格特征也还原了10月底之前的状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reverted to its previous state before late October, but the upward potential remains constrained. The only industry showing short-term upward movement is optical connectivity, while concerns about the decline in capital expenditure among leading US tech companies in 2026 persist, impacting the AI industry chain [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - Since late November, the macro environment for the A-share market has "reverted," reflecting the characteristics seen before late October. However, the upward space remains limited, with only optical connectivity showing potential for upward breakthroughs [2][3]. - The expectation for stable growth has been adjusted downward, and the anticipated return of the Federal Reserve's easing policies has led to a resurgence in optical connectivity, while other tech growth sectors are experiencing a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, with the structural characteristics reverting to those observed before late October [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The core idea of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is to "practice internal skills to cope with external challenges," with a focus on maintaining policy momentum in 2024 and potential marginal improvements in 2026 [5][6]. - Key policy points include addressing issues related to development and transformation, emphasizing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation in key regions [6][7]. - The market anticipates that if economic results improve in the first half of 2026, additional efforts to stabilize growth in the second half are likely [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (tech structural bull) already at a high level, and the market currently in a quarterly high-level oscillation phase [7][8]. - The first half of 2026 is expected to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half may see a comprehensive bull market driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7][8]. - Spring market trends are expected to focus on small-scale opportunities, particularly in optical connectivity and other tech sectors, with potential for new high-level oscillation phases [8].