报告预计，AI将成为本轮上涨周期的核心驱动力， 相关股票将在未来三个月内持续领涨，亚洲科技股今年 可能再上涨15%至20%。 摩根大通表示，在数据中心支出扩张、市场对AI中长期增长前景的信心增强的驱动下，AI股将成为本轮上涨周期的核心驱 动力，头部AI科技股有望在接下来12个月内保持上涨势头，亚洲科技股今年可能再上涨15%至20%。 硬·AI 作者 | 李笑寅 编辑 | 硬 AI 摩根大通认为，得益于AI领域的强劲势头，亚洲科技股今年或能再涨15-20%。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通分析师Gokul Hariharan领衔的团队在最新研报中指出， 2025年数据中心资本 支出增长以及对2026年增长的更大信心，将为AI股票提供持续动力。 报告数据显示，彭博半导体指数今年以来已上涨超过12%，表现优于亚洲整体股市基准。 对于非AI领域，摩根大通保持谨慎态度，但看好折叠屏iPhone和智能眼镜等新兴主题在2025年底的投资机 会。 01 AI需求强劲， "供不应求"有望持续到2026年 报告指出，当前正处于AI硬件主导的科技上升周期的中后期，并出现了典型的周期性信号——AI需求驱动力 持续强劲，市场讨论转向更细分 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that if autonomous driving technology matures and receives regulatory approval, Tesla's Robotaxi network in the U.S. could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating annual revenue of $20.3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The potential market for Robotaxi is estimated at $20.3 billion by 2040, with a projected after-tax operating profit of up to $86 billion [2][5]. - By 2040, the Tesla Network's Robotaxi fleet may consist of 2.3 million vehicles, with approximately 40% owned by Tesla and 60% contributed by individuals or fleet companies [5][7]. Group 2: Vertical Integration Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration allows it to develop its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, manufacture vehicles, and operate the network, making it the only company that can package "vehicle + software + network platform" together [2][10]. - This structural advantage enables Tesla to benefit from dynamic supply adjustments through its platform, mitigating resource idleness risks during peak and off-peak times [12]. Group 3: Cost Analysis - The average operating cost for Robotaxi is projected to be approximately $0.86 per mile by 2040, with a unit gross margin exceeding 70% at a charging rate of $3 per mile [13][14]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - UBS forecasts that the Tesla Network will remain unprofitable until 2027, but will achieve profitability by 2030, with an after-tax operating profit of $8.6 billion and a gross margin of 72% by 2040 [16]. - The valuation for Tesla Network is set at $350 billion, equating to a theoretical share price of $99, while Tesla's current stock price is around $321.87, indicating that the Robotaxi business accounts for approximately 31% of the current valuation [19].

摩根大通最新专家访谈揭示，AI基建"产能过剩"担忧为时过早，算法轻量化与硬件循环利用正缓解算力焦虑，但数据中心 头顶的"电力问题"与"散热难题"，才是AI狂奔路上更现实的减速带。 硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 近期，摩根大通与Scale AI数据科学家、Meta前高级数据科学家Sri Kanajan举行电话会议，深入探讨超大 规模AI数据中心架构趋势。 据摩根大通报告，近期算法突破——如混合模型（含DeepSeek）、精度训练及策略性强化学习——显著 降低了整体AI模型训练所需的计算量。这促使行业将优化重点转向推理环节。 Kanajan指出，当前，业界正积极采用模型蒸馏、压缩等技术精炼模型，力求在不大幅增加原始算力投入 的前提下提升性能。 02 基础设施： 动态部署，担忧产能过剩尚早 Kanajan认为，AI基础设施部署仍处早期阶段，特别是考虑到云服务商对其投资的长期回报预期，当前对 产能过剩的担忧有限。 Kanajan认为，AI基础设施部署仍处于早期阶段，对产能过剩的担忧有限。算法进步正降低训练算力消 耗，基础设施通过"训练转推理"实现高效循环利用，训练集群在新一代GPU推出后被快速重新配 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is prepared to walk away from negotiations with OpenAI if key issues, such as equity distribution, are not resolved, indicating a strong negotiation strategy [2][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Microsoft is considering terminating complex negotiations with OpenAI if no agreement is reached on critical issues, including the share of equity Microsoft should hold in OpenAI's future structure [1][2]. - The ongoing negotiations have seen Microsoft seeking a stake ranging from 20% to 49% in OpenAI, in return for its investment exceeding $13 billion [5][6]. Group 2: Current Contractual Terms - Under the existing agreement from 2019, Microsoft has exclusive rights to sell OpenAI models and is entitled to 20% of revenues up to $92 billion [6]. - Microsoft is unwilling to concede on access to OpenAI technology or revenue sharing, emphasizing the importance of income generation over equity stakes [6]. Group 3: OpenAI's Urgency - OpenAI faces a critical deadline to secure Microsoft's approval for its transition to a profit-making entity by the end of the year, or risk losing significant investments, including a potential $10 billion reduction from SoftBank's $30 billion investment [8]. - If the transition is delayed or fails, investors have the right to reclaim part of their investments, highlighting the urgency for OpenAI [8].

Core Viewpoint - Meta is strategically expanding its presence in the smart glasses market by collaborating with luxury brand EssilorLuxottica to launch AI smart glasses under the Oakley and Prada brands, aiming to capture key consumer segments before competitors like Google and Snap enter the market [2][8]. Group 1: Product Launch and Pricing - Meta plans to release Oakley-branded AI smart glasses priced around $360, which is higher than similar Ray-Ban products, featuring enhanced weather resistance [1][2]. - The collaboration with Prada marks Meta's first venture into high-end fashion wearables, leveraging Prada's existing licensing agreement with EssilorLuxottica [3]. Group 2: Market Strategy and Target Audience - The target demographic for the Oakley version is specifically athletes, as Meta observed significant usage of Ray-Ban smart glasses in sports activities like tennis and skiing [4]. - Meta's expansion is backed by the unexpected success of the second-generation Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, which have sold 2 million units since their release in 2023 [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The smart glasses market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major tech companies like Alphabet and Snap planning their own smart glasses releases, prompting Meta to adopt a proactive strategy [8]. - Meta's partnership with EssilorLuxottica, valued at $5 billion, provides exclusive rights to smart glasses technology, enhancing its competitive edge [6].

Core Insights - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman predicts that within the next 5-10 years, AI will discover new scientific knowledge, which will be more impactful than any other application of AI [2][6] - Altman expresses concerns about the "superintelligence paradox," suggesting that even with advanced AI, societal changes may not be significant [11][52] - The competition in the AI space is intensifying, particularly with Meta offering substantial financial incentives to recruit OpenAI talent [14][92] - Altman envisions a future where humanoid robots will be commonplace, marking a significant shift in human experience [10][40] - The energy demands of AI development will increase, necessitating advancements in fusion and nuclear energy [16][86] AI Breakthroughs - Altman highlights that AI models have reached a level of reasoning comparable to that of a PhD student, with the O3 model demonstrating significant capabilities [6][26] - He anticipates that astrophysics will be the first field where AI can autonomously make new discoveries due to the abundance of data [6][36] Humanoid Robots - Altman describes humanoid robots as the "ultimate dream," predicting their presence on the streets within 5-10 years, which will provide a tangible sense of the future [10][40] - He believes that the introduction of humanoid robots will create a qualitative change in human experience, unlike current software-based AI [10][40] Superintelligence Paradox - Altman raises the concern that achieving superintelligent AI may not lead to significant improvements in societal conditions, highlighting a disconnect between technological advancement and social change [11][52] - He suggests that even with highly intelligent AI, the fundamental ways of living and working may remain unchanged [51][52] OpenAI's Vision - Altman outlines OpenAI's goal to create a ubiquitous "AI companion" ecosystem that integrates seamlessly across various platforms and devices [12][70] - This AI companion will understand user goals and provide assistance in multiple contexts, enhancing user experience [12][70] Meta's Recruitment Strategy - Altman reveals that Meta views OpenAI as its biggest competitor and is offering exorbitant salaries and signing bonuses to attract OpenAI employees [14][92] - He critiques Meta's focus on financial incentives over mission-driven work, suggesting it may not foster a strong company culture [14][93] Energy and Space - Altman emphasizes the need for increased energy consumption alongside AI advancements, advocating for fusion and advanced nuclear technologies as essential solutions [16][86] - He expresses a vision for utilizing solar system resources to meet future energy demands, indicating a shift towards space exploration for energy solutions [16][87]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen announced the official release of the Qwen3 series models, optimized for Apple's MLX framework, indicating a strategic partnership with Apple for AI model deployment in China [2][4]. Group 1: Product and Technology - The MLX framework is an open-source machine learning framework specifically designed for deep adaptation to Apple chips, enabling efficient training and deployment of AI large models [5]. - A total of 32 official Qwen3 MLX models will be open-sourced, each available in four different quantization versions: 4bit, 6bit, 8bit, and BF16, facilitating deployment across iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers [5]. - The Qwen3 MLX models are now fully open-sourced on platforms like Modao Community and Hugging Face, enhancing accessibility for AI developers [7].

Core Viewpoint - Meta is planning to launch several high-spec AI ASIC chips between the end of 2025 and 2026, with a total expected output of 1 to 1.5 million units, potentially surpassing NVIDIA's GPU shipments at some point in 2026 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Currently, NVIDIA holds over 80% of the AI server market value, while ASIC AI servers account for only 8-11% [4]. - By 2025, Google is expected to ship 1.5 to 2 million TPU units, and AWS's Trainium 2 ASIC is projected to reach 1.4 to 1.5 million units, compared to NVIDIA's AI GPU supply of over 5 to 6 million units [4]. - Supply chain research indicates that the combined shipment of Google and AWS's AI TPU/ASIC has reached 40-60% of NVIDIA's AI GPU shipments [5]. Group 2: Meta's MTIA Project - Meta's MTIA project is a significant case in the current ASIC wave, with the first ASIC chip, MTIA T-V1, set to launch in Q4 2025, designed by Broadcom and featuring a complex 36-layer PCB architecture [8]. - The MTIA T-V1.5, expected in mid-2026, will double the chip area and exceed NVIDIA's next-generation GPU specifications, while the MTIA T-V2 in 2027 may introduce larger CoWoS packaging and high-power rack designs [8]. Group 3: Challenges and Competition - Meta aims to achieve 1 to 1.5 million ASIC shipments by the end of 2025 to 2026, but current CoWoS wafer allocation can only support 300,000 to 400,000 units, indicating potential production bottlenecks [9]. - NVIDIA is not passive; it plans to introduce NVLink Fusion technology at the 2025 COMPUTEX, allowing seamless integration of third-party CPUs or xPUs with its AI GPUs, which is part of its strategy to maintain market share [12]. - Despite the rise of ASICs, NVIDIA remains ahead in chip computing density and interconnect technology, making it difficult for ASICs to catch up in performance [13].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's recent product launch, including the new MI400 chip and Helios server architecture, is expected to drive growth in its GPU business, with analysts projecting a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [1][3][5]. Product Launch and Market Impact - AMD unveiled the next-generation Instinct MI350 series chips at the "Advancing AI" event, aiming to compete with market leader NVIDIA [3]. - The Helios system, set to launch in 2026, can accommodate up to 72 MI400 chips in a single server, indicating significant potential for AI applications [3][4]. - Piper Sandler raised AMD's target price from $125 to $140, maintaining an "overweight" rating, reflecting optimism about the new product's impact [5]. Stock Performance - Following the announcement, AMD's stock price surged over 10%, reaching a high of $128 before closing at $126.39, an increase of 8.81% [6]. - The stock has experienced significant volatility, down 32% from its 52-week high of $183.96 but up 61% from its 52-week low of $78.21 [6]. Strategic Partnerships - AMD emphasized collaborations with major companies like OpenAI, Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft during the product launch [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that Amazon could be a significant future partner, as AWS was a major sponsor of the event [9].

Meta大幅增加AI投资不仅没有拖累回报，反而推动投资回报率达到前所未有的高度，第一季度投资达到创纪录的31%。 上周Meta将天才少年Alexandr Wang招至麾下，并一直试图用"七位数到九位数"的薪酬从谷歌和OpenAI挖掘AI人才。 硬·AI 作者 | 赵 颖 编辑 | 硬 AI 当扎克伯格宣布再次大幅提升AI投资时，华尔街用脚投票推动Meta股价逼近历史新高，其股价自4月低点已大 涨超40%。 当AI竞赛进入白热化阶段，Meta选择用真金白银说话，将2025年资本支出预测上调至720亿美元，而数据 证明了Meta"烧钱有道"，该公司第一季度投资回报率达到创纪录的31%。 上周，Meta敲定了对Scale AI高达143亿美元的投资，并将其创始人Alexandr Wang招至麾下。此外，与其 他科技巨头相比，Meta在AI商业化方面拥有独特优势——广告。 而交易员们显然买账了，彭博追踪的分析师中近90%建议买入Meta，目前Meta股价距离平均目标价仅一步 之遥，股票估值已达到预期收益的24.5倍。 追踪包括亚马逊在内的AI股票的ETF自4月8日低点已上涨32%引发股市普遍反弹。在此期间，Globa ...