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马斯克没说谎,特斯拉的电动车真的“活了”
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-10-11 13:11
这句话刚出来的时候,连我这个长期关注特斯拉的人都皱了眉。 "自动驾驶能开得更稳、更安全,这我信。可活了?你这不是在讲科幻片吗?"直到我看完那段 Drive-Through 测试视频,才意识到——是我想象力太窄。 前言 十年前,特斯拉还是一家被嘲笑的公司。有人说它是"电池装在车壳里",也有人说它的"自动驾驶就是个玩具"。 但就在这个季度,马斯克让人重新定义了什么叫"车"。他悄悄在 FSD 系统里做了一个大升级v14。 然后,他说了一句话:"这次升级,会让你觉得车是活的。" 但更合理的推测是——FSD v14 引入了世界模型(World Model)。它不再是单纯的规则导航,而是在不断预测:"人接下来要干什么、我该如何配合"。 这种"预测+自适应"机制,恰恰是人类驾驶员的直觉。 更关键的是,这种能力和特斯拉的人形机器人 Optimus 共用一套底层模型。 FSD v14 车真的开始理解你了? (大家一起云体验一下FSD v14 视频的场景很平常:美国常见的 Drive Through 快餐点。博主什么都没操作,结果车自己沿着车道开到点餐对讲机前停下,等他和店员聊完菜单,FSD 又 自动起步,开到取餐窗口前,安静地 ...
突发暴跌!史上最惨
中国基金报· 2025-10-10 00:48
【导读】特朗普威胁削减民主党项目;法拉利股价暴跌15%,上市以来单日跌幅最大 中国基金报记者 赵刚 综合整理 美东时间 10 月 10 日周四,美股收跌,标普 500 指数与纳指创盘中历史新高后回落。美联 储 " 三把手 " 、纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态,支持在今年内进一步下调利率。 约 290 万辆 FSD 版特斯拉车辆可能存在安全隐患。法拉利股价暴跌 15% ,为上市以来表 现最糟糕的交易日。 美股收跌 特朗普威胁削减民主党项目 周四盘中,纳指最高上涨至 23062.62 点,标普 500 指数最高上涨至 6754.58 点,均创盘 中历史新高。 纳斯达克指数(IXIC) W 10-09 16:00:10 2302 昨收 23043.38 成交额 0 4.63 23045.33 成交量 交开 0 -18.75 -0.08% 上 涨 1216 年 盘 下 跌 311 1971 最高价 市盈率 近20日 23062.62 43.7 4.45% 最低价 22899.16 市净率 7.43 19.23% 今年来 五日 分时 周K 日K EK (0) 疊加 23187.60 0.63% 22899.16 ...
从被动修复到主动免疫,探寻汽车软件故障的智慧处方
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-09-22 09:18
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to software faults as vehicles transition to "software-defined" systems, necessitating clear boundaries for intelligent driving functions and safety measures to prevent exaggerated claims [2][3][4]. Group 1: Software Challenges and Industry Response - The complexity of automotive software has increased dramatically, with code volumes exceeding 1 billion lines, far surpassing traditional systems like Windows 10, leading to higher risks of system failures and security breaches [2]. - Software faults have become a major concern, with consumer complaints about issues such as malfunctioning intelligent assistance systems and software failures in electric vehicles [4]. - The industry consensus is to adopt modular architectures to reduce coupling and integrate safety design throughout the development process, which is essential for addressing software faults [5][6]. Group 2: Talent Development and Organizational Structure - There is a growing demand for professionals skilled in automotive software, emphasizing the need for a new talent cultivation model that combines automotive engineering with software expertise [7][8]. - Companies are transitioning to agile organizational structures to enhance responsiveness and improve user feedback handling, which is crucial for rapid software development [10]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Collaboration - Establishing an open-source community is vital for collaborative innovation in automotive software, which can reduce development costs and accelerate technology iteration [11]. - The creation of an industry-level software vulnerability database for real-time information sharing is essential for enhancing software security and reducing faults [12]. Group 4: Future Directions and Technological Evolution - The shift towards centralized computing platforms in vehicles is expected to transform automotive software architecture, allowing for easier updates and improved communication between software modules [14]. - The integration of advanced AI technologies is anticipated to enhance software reliability and enable self-repair capabilities, marking a significant evolution in automotive software systems [15][16].
美股异动|特斯拉三连涨创新高FSD升级与中国市场需求助推股价
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 23:48
与此同时,特斯拉在中国市场上也有突破性进展。公司推出的Model Y L——加长轴距版电动SUV,成 为市场焦点。这款车型在中国地区的订单已经售罄,并且预计最早将于2025年11月交付。新车的订单数 量表明,市场对这款车型的需求非常旺盛,超过3.5万辆的订单在短时间内涌入,反映了消费者对空间 和性能的高度认可。 Model Y L的推出不仅在满足中国市场偏好方面表现出色,也为特斯拉在全球市场开辟了新的增长机 会。分析人士认为,这款车型的成功将大幅提升特斯拉在季度销量中的表现,并帮助其在竞争激烈的电 动车市场中保持领先地位。 综合来看,特斯拉的战略布局和技术创新使其在多个领域稳步发展。投资者可关注其FSD系统的进一步 升级,以及Model Y L在全球市场的销售表现。特斯拉的技术优势和市场反应力显示出其未来增长潜 力,投资者需密切关注这些动态,以便在合适的时机做出投资决策。通过充分考虑特斯拉的长期战略和 市场表现,可能将为投资者带来可观的收益。 来源:市场资讯 (来源:美股情报站) 近期,特斯拉的股价连涨三天,于9月11日大涨6.04%,创下自2025年2月以来的新高。这一波涨势令投 资者对特斯拉的市场表现充满 ...
超10亿美元打水漂,“科技狂人”马斯克为什么被AI绊倒?
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-11 08:28
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of the termination of Tesla's "Dojo Supercomputer Project," which was once considered a significant initiative in AI training but ultimately failed after five years of operation [1][3] - Elon Musk had previously expressed confidence in the project, claiming it would achieve "computing supremacy" by 2026, highlighting the abruptness of the project's closure [3][5] - The project was led by Peter Bannon, a key figure recruited from Apple, who has since left to start a new venture [1][3] Group 2 - Tesla has raised approximately $17.6 billion and generated over $60 billion in total revenue, with a peak market value of $1.3 trillion [3][5] - SpaceX, another Musk venture, has an estimated investment of $20 billion to $30 billion and is projected to generate over $10 billion in revenue from subscription services by 2025 [5][6] - Despite high revenues, both Tesla and SpaceX have faced challenges in profitability, with Tesla's net profit significantly lower than that of competitors like TSMC and BYD [5][6] Group 3 - The Dojo supercomputer was designed to train Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, utilizing a high-performance D1 chip that offers 3 to 4 times the computing power of NVIDIA's A100 chip [20][22] - The Dojo system was intended to achieve an astonishing computing capability of 100 Exa-FLOPS, but faced significant delays and compatibility issues due to its unique architecture [20][22] - Musk's decision to halt the project reflects a strategic pivot, as he has begun procuring NVIDIA H100 chips and collaborating with TSMC and Samsung for alternative AI solutions [24][25] Group 4 - The failure of the Dojo project is attributed to high costs and a significant gap between investment and returns, compounded by Musk's expansive business ambitions [25][27] - Musk's focus on cost management has led to innovative strategies in battery production and rocket manufacturing, but the same approach has created challenges in the AI sector [27][30] - The competitive landscape in AI has intensified, with Musk acknowledging the need for alternative solutions as Tesla has shifted 70% of its training tasks back to cloud platforms like AWS and Google Cloud [41][43]
特斯拉万亿薪酬实际上是“减负”:马斯克未兑现的承诺缩水了
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-08 02:14
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's board has proposed a new $1 trillion compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, which includes performance targets that are significantly lower than his previous commitments to the company [1][2]. Group 1: Compensation Plan Details - The new compensation plan is designed to encourage Musk to build "the most valuable company ever" over a 10-year period [1]. - The plan requires Musk to achieve a total delivery of 20 million vehicles by 2035, a significant reduction from his previous claim of producing 20 million vehicles annually by 2030 [2]. - The plan still requires shareholder approval at the upcoming annual meeting, but it is expected to receive overwhelming support from Tesla's fanbase [1]. Group 2: Product Goals - The first product goal set by the board is to deliver a total of 20 million vehicles, with Tesla having sold 8 million to date [2]. - The second product goal involves achieving 1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation, but the definition of Robotaxi has been broadened to include any Tesla vehicle using the full self-driving system [3][4]. - The third goal is to deliver 1 million Optimus robots by 2035, with the board acknowledging the potential of this product while noting that the commercialization plan is still in development [6][7]. - The final product goal is to reach 10 million active subscriptions for Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) system, which currently has a low adoption rate [7]. Group 3: Financial Targets - Musk is required to help Tesla achieve an $8.5 trillion valuation to unlock the full benefits of the compensation plan, with aspirations for Tesla's market value to exceed that of the top five most valuable companies combined [7][8]. - Additionally, Musk must assist in increasing the company's annual profit to approximately $400 billion, a significant increase from last year's $17 billion [7][8]. - The board has also requested Musk to collaborate on a succession plan for a future CEO, ensuring his involvement for at least 7.5 years [8].
智驾免费背后车企的经济账
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-08-25 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards "intelligent driving equality," leading to discussions on whether advanced driving assistance systems should be charged or offered for free [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The transition from 2G to 5G has made mobile data services a basic consumer good, influencing the automotive sector to consider similar models for intelligent driving features [2]. - Companies like BYD are advocating for "intelligent driving equality," aiming to make advanced driving technologies accessible to a broader consumer base [3][4]. - The introduction of various intelligent driving solutions, such as BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" and XPeng's AI driving features, reflects a trend towards standardizing these technologies across all vehicle models [3][4]. Group 2: Business Models - The industry is divided into two main camps regarding the commercialization of intelligent driving: those advocating for free access and those supporting a paid model [6][7]. - Tesla and Huawei represent the "charging camp," focusing on monetizing software services through one-time purchases or subscriptions, which has proven to be a lucrative model [6][7]. - A middle-ground approach is emerging, where companies embed hardware and offer software on a subscription basis, balancing hardware sales with potential software revenue [7][8]. Group 3: Cost Considerations - The cost of hardware for advanced driving systems is significant, with estimates ranging from 15,000 to 30,000 yuan per vehicle, impacting the profitability of companies adopting free models [9][10]. - R&D costs for advanced driving technologies are substantial, with leading companies investing billions annually, necessitating a sustainable business model to recoup these investments [9][10]. - The pressure to offer free intelligent driving features is leading to cost-cutting measures within the supply chain, affecting suppliers' margins [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the "intelligent driving free" model is under scrutiny, as companies must find a balance between cost absorption and future revenue generation [11][12]. - Some companies are beginning to see success through cost reduction strategies and scaling, indicating a potential path to profitability [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve towards a model where user experience and real value become the primary competitive factors, rather than just pricing strategies [13].
马斯克“剧透”特斯拉FSD V14:“它很有感知力”
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-08-24 05:34
Core Insights - Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced the upcoming release of the FSD system's V14 update, which is expected to be a significant advancement following the V12 release in November 2023 [1][2] - The FSD V14 update will reportedly feature ten times the parameter count of the current version and will significantly reduce driver interference [2] - Although FSD V14 is not the unsupervised FSD used in the Austin Robotaxi pilot project, it is anticipated to deliver substantial improvements [2] - Musk described FSD V14 as feeling "very perceptive," indicating that its launch could positively impact the industry landscape [2]
马斯克对内动刀,超算团队整合,全力投向智驾芯片研发
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-15 12:05
Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent restructuring of its AI organization reflects a strategic shift towards enhancing the efficiency of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus robot technologies, consolidating resources to support a unified chip architecture for training and inference [2][17]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - The restructuring involves integrating the original Dojo team into three main areas: hardware, software, and firmware, aimed at improving collaboration and resource allocation [6][8]. - Aaron Rodgers will oversee the hardware direction, focusing on chip design and semiconductor optimization, while Ashok Elluswamy will lead the software team, emphasizing AI algorithm optimization and software integration [6][8]. - Silvio Brugada will manage firmware development, concentrating on safety protocols for the autonomous driving system [8]. Group 2: Dojo Project Termination - The Dojo project, initiated in 2019 to develop high-performance chips for autonomous driving, has been officially terminated, with Tesla shifting focus to the Cortex supercomputer cluster [9][11]. - The D1 chip, developed under the Dojo project, featured advanced specifications but faced challenges such as high manufacturing costs and complex thermal designs, leading to the decision to pivot towards a unified chip strategy [9][11]. Group 3: New Computing Initiatives - Tesla is investing in the Cortex supercomputer cluster, which will utilize over 100,000 NVIDIA H100 and H200 chips, aimed at training neural networks for FSD and Optimus [2][4]. - The upcoming Cortex 2.0 center, set to begin construction in May 2025, will enhance training efficiency with a specially designed computing architecture [4]. Group 4: Future Developments - Tesla plans to release an updated version of its FSD system by September 2025, featuring significant improvements in AI model scale and video compression technology [13]. - The Robotaxi project is also progressing, with plans to expand testing areas and seek operational permits in California by the end of 2025 [14][16].
特斯拉20250813
2025-08-13 14:53
Summary of Tesla's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla - **Date of Call**: August 13, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Insights - Tesla is recognized as a pioneer in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, with its experience in turning losses into profits serving as a reference for new EV companies. A quarterly delivery of 100,000 vehicles is identified as a critical profitability indicator, validated by companies like Seres [2][5] - The company is transitioning into an AI-focused entity, with smart driving being a key area. The end-to-end solution is gaining traction among domestic automakers, and the Robotaxi business model shows significant potential [2][4] - Tesla's stock price has diverged from delivery volumes, indicating market recognition of its AI capabilities. The stock is expected to outperform Nvidia in 2024, driven by rising expectations for smart driving [2][9] AI Infrastructure and Developments - Tesla is heavily investing in AI infrastructure, with nearly 30% of quarterly capital expenditures directed towards AI. The Cortex supercomputer center is expected to achieve an equivalent computing power of 120,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs by Q3 2025, leading the global automotive industry [2][7] - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) system utilizes an end-to-end neural network model, enhancing driving safety with a tenfold increase in accident intervals and cost reduction. The pure vision approach is being applied in lower-priced models [2][12] Business Model and Profitability - Tesla's Robotaxi business has a cost advantage, using the mass-produced Model Y platform without hardware upgrades, offering lower fares than competitors like Waymo [2][10] - Future business models may include an Airbnb-like platform for vehicle rentals and FSD software licensing, both of which could significantly enhance profit margins [2][31] Impact on the EV Industry - Tesla's profitability metrics serve as benchmarks for other new EV companies. For instance, Ideal Auto achieved profitability with a quarterly delivery of around 100,000 vehicles, similar to Tesla's past performance [2][5] - The introduction of Tesla's Shanghai factory in October 2019 triggered a rise in the overall EV index, benefiting leading companies like BYD [2][6] Market Challenges and Opportunities - The U.S. market faces challenges with the expiration of federal EV tax credits, potentially hindering sales growth. In Europe, sales have declined significantly due to various factors, including market demand fluctuations [2][34] - Despite challenges in traditional vehicle sales, Tesla maintains a cash reserve of approximately $35 billion, supporting its AI and emerging technology investments [2][33] Future Projections - Tesla's global production capacity has remained stable at 2.35 million units for eight consecutive quarters, with no new capacity releases expected until 2026 [2][8] - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for 2025, estimated between $5-6 billion, but expects a rebound in 2026 as the Robotaxi business scales up [2][42] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Robotaxi service is expanding rapidly, with operational areas increasing nearly fourfold within 40 days of launch in Austin, contrasting with Waymo's slower growth [2][30] - Tesla's competitive edge lies in its cost control and ability to scale operations without significant hardware investments, allowing for lower pricing compared to Waymo [2][28] Conclusion - Tesla is positioned to leverage its advancements in AI and smart driving to enhance profitability and market share, while navigating challenges in traditional automotive sales and market dynamics. The company's strategic focus on high-margin business models and innovative technologies is expected to drive future growth and valuation.