经济观察报
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“牛市”氛围下的两张“面孔”
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 11:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of undervalued Chinese technology assets as an investment alternative amidst declining confidence in the US dollar and government bonds, highlighting a structural revaluation and a healthy slow bull market in China's A-share market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by two distinct faces: a "broad fundamental" driven by macro expectations, policy signals, technological trends, and valuation expansion, and a "narrow fundamental" that reflects corporate earnings and industry performance yet to fully materialize [3][4][19]. - A-share market experienced a significant rebound after a brief adjustment, with major indices showing positive performance and high trading volumes, indicating investor interest and market resilience [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are adopting a defensive yet optimistic approach, balancing profit-taking with regular investments to accumulate positions, reflecting a strategy of "taking profits at highs and investing at lows" [8][19]. - The market's current style is frequently shifting, with themes like AI and gold gaining traction, while traditional indicators such as PPI and housing loans remain low, suggesting a complex interplay of factors influencing investment decisions [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data shows structural differentiation, with PPI declining and CPI showing signs of recovery, indicating a gradual restoration of domestic demand [17][18]. - Exports have demonstrated resilience, particularly in non-US markets, which may provide a counterbalance to potential pressures in the fourth quarter due to seasonal factors [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while valuation expansion is the main theme, the sustainability of this trend hinges on the realization of corporate earnings, with potential risks if third-quarter reports do not meet expectations [19][20]. - The article emphasizes that emotional market sentiment can ignite trends, but actual earnings are necessary to sustain them, marking a critical juncture for the A-share market [20].
小红书接住了“泼天的流量”和独家约谈警告
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 09:13
9月11日,据网信中国消息,近日,国家网信办指导上海市网信办,对小红书平台采取约谈、责令 限期改正、警告、从严处理责任人等处罚,处罚事由为"小红书平台未落实信息内容管理主体责 任,在热搜榜单重点环节频繁呈现多条炒作明星个人动态和琐事类词条等不良信息内容,破坏网络 生态"。 千瓜数据显示,8月,明星赵露思的小红书账号涨粉431.18万,是今年小红书单月涨粉数量最多的 博主。通常情况下,小红书账号排行榜第一的博主,单月粉丝增量一般在60万—130万量级。赵露 思在小红书的活跃,无疑代表了泼天流量的来临。 8月底,小红书月活跃用户迈过3.5亿大关,但和微博、抖音等 平台相比,小红书长期被指其社区生态迄今没有培养出绝对顶 流博主。 作者: 陈月芹 封图:图虫创意 8月,赵露思与经纪公司公开决裂并决定注销微博账号。之后,赵露思转战小红书,开启连续多日 的直播。到小红书直播的第二日,8月5日18时,赵露思小红书账号的粉丝数突破2000万,小红书 官方发出祝贺"赵露思成为小红书首位粉丝数突破2000万的创作者"的海报和图文。赵露思相关词 条频现热搜榜,高峰时,"小红书热点"榜上20条热点中有8条与她相关,小红书的首页信息流 ...
70家创新药上市公司 3家靠自身造血盈利
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 08:19
Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China is experiencing a recovery, with over half of the companies having commercialized innovative drugs, despite many still not being profitable [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the first half of 2025, 70 innovative drug companies have been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the STAR Market, with 15 companies achieving profitability, including notable firms like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [2][19]. - Among the 70 companies, 55 are still operating at a loss, representing approximately 79% of the total [6][19]. - Of the 55 unprofitable companies, 28 have commercialized innovative drug products, indicating that profitability may be achievable for some in the near future [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - Only 3 companies are generating profits primarily from innovative drug sales, namely BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Elysium [23][22]. - The majority of profitable companies rely on other revenue streams, such as biosimilars or licensing agreements, rather than solely on innovative drug sales [23][25]. - For instance, Elysium achieved significant revenue from its lung cancer drug, while companies like WuXi Biologics and Hengrui Medicine have seen profitability through biosimilars and licensing deals [24][25]. Group 3: Company Performance - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 175.18 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, largely driven by its innovative drugs [28]. - Innovent Biologics achieved revenue of 59.53 billion yuan, with 88.76% coming from product sales, reflecting strong performance in the oncology sector [29]. - Elysium's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 23.73 billion yuan, with over 99% derived from innovative drug sales, showcasing its successful product launch [23][20].
今年起,HPV疫苗将能免费接种了
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has included the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program, allowing eligible girls to receive the vaccine for free starting this year [2][3]. Group 1: National Immunization Program Expansion - This marks the first expansion of the national immunization program in 18 years, with the HPV vaccine being prioritized for inclusion [2]. - Since 2007, the immunization program has maintained a structure of "fourteen vaccines for fifteen diseases," with no substantial additions in vaccine types over the years [2]. - As of 2024, 147 out of 194 WHO member countries have included the HPV vaccine in their immunization programs [2]. Group 2: HPV Vaccine and Cervical Cancer - HPV is a common virus primarily transmitted through sexual contact, with persistent infection of 14 high-risk HPV types being the main cause of cervical cancer [2]. - Vaccination can prevent at least 70% of cervical cancer cases, which is critical given the rising incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China [2]. - In 2022, approximately 150,000 new cervical cancer cases and about 56,000 deaths were reported in China [2]. Group 3: Local Government Initiatives - Several local governments have already initiated free HPV vaccination programs for eligible girls, with Guangdong province being one of the earliest adopters since 2022 [3][4]. - The program in Guangdong requires eligible girls to meet specific criteria, including being under 14 years old and having no prior HPV vaccination [4]. - Over 17 provinces in China have implemented similar free vaccination projects, although the distribution of these programs is uneven, with fewer initiatives in central and northeastern regions compared to eastern and southern areas [4]. Group 4: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the HPV vaccine's inclusion in the immunization program, stock prices of several HPV vaccine manufacturers rose [5]. - WanTai BioPharmaceuticals saw a 2.52% increase in stock price, while Watson Bio and Zhifei Biological also experienced stock price increases of 1.22% and 1.71%, respectively [5].
云圣智能朱胜利:工业巡检或是低空经济“第一桶金”
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 05:28
Core Viewpoint - The low-altitude economy is flourishing, driven by essential markets such as urban governance and industrial inspection, with drones becoming crucial tools in these areas, particularly in power grid inspections, which represent the industry's "first bucket of gold" [1][3][14]. Urban Governance - The company has initiated projects like the "Integrated Urban Governance Project" in Dongshan County, which is considered a national benchmark for county-level low-altitude governance [5][14]. - The drone systems deployed in urban governance can monitor tourist flows, facility conditions, and environmental changes, enhancing safety and efficiency in city management [6][14]. Industrial Inspection - Drones are increasingly utilized in industrial inspections, especially for power grid monitoring, marking a significant revenue opportunity for the industry [3][14]. - The company has developed a fully autonomous drone inspection system that addresses challenges in battery replacement and operational efficiency, allowing drones to autonomously return to charging stations when low on power [2][11]. Development Phases - The company has undergone four revolutionary phases in drone technology, focusing on achieving true autonomy, integrating machine, network, and cloud solutions, and developing a comprehensive low-altitude network [9][11][12]. - The first revolution involved making drones fully autonomous, eliminating the need for human operators, while the second revolution focused on providing integrated solutions that combine hardware and software [10][11]. Market Outlook - The low-altitude economy is expected to see significant growth over the next 5 to 10 years, with infrastructure development being a key focus [5][9]. - The company is optimistic about the future of the low-altitude economy, anticipating increased demand across various sectors, including emergency response and traffic management [15][16].
彭飞:各国通过国内法满足最低税标准的大方向已明确
经济观察报· 2025-09-11 03:33
Group 1 - The article discusses the adjustments made by the Trump administration to previous tax policies, particularly through the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) rules, which effectively implement a minimum tax practice expected to continue in subsequent terms [1][4]. - China is currently an observer in the OECD process and has a long-term wait-and-see attitude towards the two-pillar framework, with its current corporate income tax rate at 25%, and certain sectors benefiting from a reduced rate of 15%, aligning with global minimum tax standards [2][5]. - The OECD's two-pillar framework was developed to address tax challenges arising from digitalization, with Pillar One focusing on reallocating taxing rights for large multinational enterprises and Pillar Two establishing a global minimum corporate tax rate to curb tax base erosion and profit shifting [3][4]. Group 2 - The implementation of Pillar Two has seen some Southeast Asian and European countries, as well as Hong Kong, advance its adoption, with Hong Kong introducing a minimum tax mechanism to meet global standards despite a standard tax rate of 16.5% [5]. - There is a growing global consensus on stabilizing corporate tax rates around 15% through domestic laws, regardless of the specific future direction of Pillar Two [5]. - Chinese companies expanding overseas are advised to understand the tax regulations of their investment destinations and utilize professional platforms to navigate tax issues, particularly in light of the "safe harbor rules" in places like Hong Kong [5].
煤电效益面临多重挑战,专家建议充分发挥其调节性作用
经济观察报· 2025-09-10 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The coal power industry is facing a peak in demand, with coal power generation expected to reach its maximum capacity this year, potentially capped at 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours [2][3]. Group 1: Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, national coal power generation has declined, with a reported generation of 294 million kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [1][5]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, coal power generation growth rates were around 1% in 2022 and 2024, compared to approximately 9% in 2021 and 7% in 2023 [1][5]. - The report indicates that the slowdown in overall electricity consumption growth and the rapid increase in renewable energy installations are primary factors contributing to the peak in coal power generation [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections and Economic Factors - The report anticipates that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, electricity consumption growth will gradually converge with GDP growth rates, potentially even falling below GDP growth [3]. - It is projected that the increase in electricity consumption during the "15th Five-Year Plan" could still reach between 1.4 trillion to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy installations [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Changes - The introduction of market reforms for renewable energy pricing has led to a decrease in the revenue for solar power, with prices dropping from approximately 0.355 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 2022 to 0.325 yuan per kilowatt-hour in the first half of this year [6]. - Coal power plants are now required to participate more actively in market trading, with their pricing mechanisms still based on a "base price + fluctuations" model [7]. - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour by June this year, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [10]. Group 4: Role of Coal Power in the Energy Transition - As the penetration of renewable energy increases, coal power is evolving into a more flexible and regulatory power source to manage the intermittency and volatility of renewable energy [11]. - Experts suggest that the auxiliary service functions of coal power should be valued higher in the market, as the cost of integrating a larger share of low-cost renewable energy will require additional investments [11].
手握减肥“药王”也顶不住,诺和诺德裁员近万人
经济观察报· 2025-09-10 13:21
Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is undergoing significant layoffs, with plans to cut approximately 9,000 jobs, representing about 11% of its global workforce, as part of a transformation strategy to streamline operations and focus on growth opportunities in diabetes and obesity treatment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Layoff Details - Novo Nordisk announced layoffs of around 9,000 employees, aiming to save 8 billion Danish kroner (approximately 8.94 billion RMB) annually by the end of 2026 [2]. - The layoffs are part of a broader transformation plan due to recent growth slowdowns, with the company adjusting its organizational structure to enhance decision-making speed [3][4]. - The company currently employs 78,400 people globally, with over half of the layoffs expected to come from its headquarters in Denmark [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Novo Nordisk has revised its 2025 operating profit growth forecast down to 4%-10%, from a previous estimate of 10%-16% [3]. - The transformation plan is expected to incur a one-time restructuring cost of 8 billion Danish kroner, which will negatively impact the operating profit growth forecast by approximately 6 percentage points [5]. Group 3: Market Context - The company has seen a slowdown in growth, particularly in key markets like the U.S. and China, where sales of its diabetes drug, semaglutide, have declined by about 11% in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide generated $16.5 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, surpassing the previous top-selling drug, K drug, which earned $15.2 billion [4].
当豪华回归本质,捷豹路虎的“偏执”与坚持
经济观察报· 2025-09-10 09:17
Core Viewpoint - Jaguar Land Rover is committed to creating a new modern luxury experience for Chinese consumers throughout the entire lifecycle of their products, emphasizing quality as the foundation for success in a competitive market [2][27]. Group 1: Quality and Recognition - In the 2025 China Initial Quality Study (IQS) by J.D. Power, Jaguar Land Rover achieved first place among luxury brands, with Land Rover scoring 208 PP100, and the Range Rover leading the large luxury SUV segment [2][21]. - The recognition from authoritative rankings reflects consumer confidence in Jaguar Land Rover, showcasing the results of collaboration between the team and dealer partners [2][4]. Group 2: Localization and Innovation - The success of Jaguar Land Rover is attributed to its ability to integrate global standards with localized capabilities, particularly through its Changshu manufacturing base, which has become a hub for innovation tailored to the Chinese market [4][6]. - The collaboration with Chery Automobile to create the Freelander brand exemplifies a new model of localization that goes beyond traditional joint ventures, focusing on mutual benefit and deep cooperation [6][10]. Group 3: User-Centric Approach - Jaguar Land Rover's research and development are driven by real user needs, ensuring that quality is not just an end result but a starting point throughout the product lifecycle [6][10]. - The company emphasizes understanding user experiences in various environments, ensuring that vehicles maintain reliability under diverse conditions [8][10]. Group 4: New Modern Luxury - High quality serves as the foundation for Jaguar Land Rover's "new modern luxury" strategy, which integrates technology, sustainability, and personalization while respecting the brand's heritage [12][18]. - The introduction of innovative materials and designs, such as the collaboration with ECONYL for recycling waste materials, aligns with the values of today's high-end consumers [12][13]. Group 5: Customer Experience and Service - Jaguar Land Rover has consistently ranked high in customer satisfaction, with a score of 775 in the 2025 J.D. Power Sales Satisfaction Index, marking the highest score for luxury brands in five years [23][25]. - The company has enhanced service offerings through digital platforms, allowing users to track orders and manage vehicle services conveniently, reflecting a commitment to improving service transparency and diversity [23][25]. Group 6: Market Performance - Jaguar Land Rover maintains a leading position in the luxury SUV market, with the Range Rover being the best-selling model in the segment priced above 1.5 million yuan, showing a 10% year-on-year sales increase in the first half of the year [21][27]. - The brand's resilience in fluctuating market conditions is attributed to its precise response to high-end consumer demands in design, performance, and quality [21][27].
固态电池上车倒计时 上游设备企业先迎来“好日子”
经济观察报· 2025-09-10 09:17
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese solid-state battery industry is transitioning from laboratory validation to industrialization, with several companies achieving mass production or vehicle application in semi-solid-state batteries, while research and pilot testing for all-solid-state batteries are accelerating [1][5]. Industry Overview - The solid-state battery concept has gained traction, with the Wind Solid-State Battery Index rising over 11% since September. Notable stock performances include a 60% increase for Xian Dao Intelligent and over 30% for companies like Shanghai Xiba and Tian Ci Materials [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued a plan to support foundational research in solid-state batteries through key national R&D programs [2]. - Market data indicates that leading equipment companies have reported new signed and backlog orders exceeding 30 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 70% to 80% [2][3]. Technological Developments - The lithium battery industry is entering a structural recovery phase, with a surge in demand for new technologies such as solid-state batteries and high-voltage lithium iron phosphate [3]. - Major battery manufacturers are investing heavily in solid-state battery production, with CATL planning 10-15 GWh capacity by 2025 and BYD focusing on sulfide routes for new platforms by 2026 [3][4]. Vehicle Manufacturers' Progress - Dongfeng Motor has implemented semi-solid-state battery installations and is set to mass-produce solid-state batteries with energy densities of 350 Wh/kg [4]. - SAIC Motor's MG4 model has integrated semi-solid-state batteries, while GAC Group is developing solid-state batteries with energy densities exceeding 350 Wh/kg, expected to be installed in vehicles by 2026 [4]. Market Challenges - Concerns have been raised regarding the lack of ideal solid electrolyte materials, leading to significant uncertainties in technology routes. Many companies are opting for semi-solid-state batteries as a transitional solution, which may hinder the development of all-solid-state battery technologies [5]. - The industry faces challenges in collaboration and policy direction, with a need for enhanced foundational research and coordinated breakthroughs in key materials and processes to achieve high-quality development in the solid-state battery sector [5].