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境外所得补税或成今年征管重点
经济观察报· 2026-02-08 05:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing focus on the collection of personal income tax on overseas income, predicting that this trend will strengthen in 2026 [14]. Revenue Analysis - In 2025, the national tax revenue reached 176,363 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8% compared to the previous year. The main tax categories maintained positive growth, with personal income tax increasing by 11.5% [6][9]. - The structure of general public budget revenue is improving, with tax revenue accounting for 81.6% of the total, up by 2.0 percentage points from 2024, indicating enhanced stability and sustainability of fiscal revenue [6][7]. Expenditure Analysis - Expenditures related to "people" are increasing, with education spending at 43,417 billion yuan (up 3.2%), social security and employment spending at 44,416 billion yuan (up 6.7%), and health spending at 21,446 billion yuan (up 5.7%) [3][7]. - The overall fiscal policy for 2025 is characterized by a commitment to "sustained effort and increased support," with a focus on maintaining necessary spending levels despite revenue pressures [4]. Personal Income Tax Insights - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration and an increase in dividend income. The growth rate of 11.5% is notably higher than that of other major tax categories [9][10]. - The tax authority has intensified its efforts in regulating high-income individuals, with substantial amounts of unpaid personal income tax being collected from various cases [12][13]. Overseas Income Taxation - The article highlights the importance of overseas income taxation, with the tax authority having the capability to track residents' overseas financial accounts since the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) in 2017 [13]. - The trend of strengthening the collection of personal income tax on overseas income is expected to continue into 2026, as the tax authority aims to improve data collection and compliance [14].
容量电价机制更新 储能电站从重规模走向重质量
经济观察报· 2026-02-07 07:24
Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of new energy storage in the capacity price mechanism marks the formation of a complete revenue landscape for independent new energy storage, with 2026 expected to be the year of market-oriented development for independent new energy storage [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Price Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have introduced a new capacity price mechanism that includes new energy storage stations, allowing them to earn fixed revenue [2][3]. - A typical 100MW energy storage station can earn over 10 million yuan under the capacity price mechanism [4][16]. - The capacity price mechanism is shifting from a fixed income model to one that considers market dynamics, requiring energy storage stations to enhance operational capabilities and technology to maximize earnings [5][7][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The energy storage industry has faced irrational price wars, leading to a focus on cost-cutting that jeopardizes long-term operational efficiency and safety [5][20]. - The new capacity price mechanism encourages energy storage companies to invest in research and development, transitioning the industry from a scale-driven model to one focused on technology and reliability [5][20]. - The demand for flexibility in the power system is increasing due to the rapid growth of renewable energy installations, necessitating a robust energy storage capacity [9][10]. Group 3: Future Projections and Requirements - By 2030, approximately 300GW of new energy storage capacity will be needed to meet the power system's requirements [10]. - The capacity price mechanism will evolve to reflect regional reliability capacity rather than a national benchmark, emphasizing the importance of stable power supply during peak periods [7][8]. - The quality of energy storage systems will be critical for earning capacity payments, with a focus on high-quality equipment and operational efficiency [18][20].
决战2026:中国民营火箭企业该“交卷”了
经济观察报· 2026-02-07 05:53
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry has reached a critical juncture after 11 years of development since the government encouraged private investment in space infrastructure in 2014. Despite recent launch failures, market enthusiasm remains high, with significant IPO activities and capital inflow into the sector [4][6][24]. Group 1: Recent Launch Failures - On January 17, 2026, both a state-owned Long March 3B rocket and a private company, Xinghe Power's "Gushenxing No. 2" rocket, experienced launch failures on the same day [2][3]. - In December 2025, another private rocket, Zhuque No. 3, faced issues during its recovery phase, highlighting ongoing challenges in the industry [3]. Group 2: Market Response and IPO Activities - Despite the setbacks, the capital market's interest in commercial space remains strong, with companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Star Glory making significant progress towards IPOs [4][5][24]. - The commercial space sector has seen a surge in stock prices, with many companies experiencing rapid increases in market value, even if they have not yet generated substantial revenue [5][8]. Group 3: Satellite Production and Capacity - China submitted an application for 203,000 satellites, which has led to a bullish market reaction, with many companies seeing their stock prices double [8]. - The production capacity for satellites is not a limiting factor, as companies like Galaxy Aerospace have significantly reduced manufacturing times through advanced production techniques [8]. Group 4: Structural Challenges in Launch Capacity - The reliance on state-owned rockets for major launches has created a bottleneck for private companies, which struggle to secure launch opportunities [10][11]. - Private companies have primarily used solid rockets, which are less capable of meeting the demands for large-scale satellite deployments, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [10][11]. Group 5: Development of New Rocket Companies - Due to dissatisfaction with existing launch options, companies like "Xinghuo Shikong" have been established to develop new rockets, indicating a shift towards self-reliance in launch capabilities [12]. - The new company is backed by significant investment and aims to produce larger rockets capable of carrying more substantial payloads [12]. Group 6: Cost and Technology Challenges - The high costs associated with launching rockets, particularly at commercial launch sites, have led some companies to consider alternative methods, such as sea launches [13]. - The industry is focused on developing reusable rocket technology to reduce costs, with various companies exploring different propulsion systems [16][20]. Group 7: Financial Pressures and IPO Timing - The urgency for companies to go public is driven by early investors seeking liquidity, with many companies nearing IPOs despite ongoing technical challenges [27][28]. - The year 2026 is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, where successful launches and technology validation are critical for maintaining investor confidence [28].
系好安全带!避险黄金进入大波动时代
经济观察报· 2026-02-07 05:53
市场在金价巨震中分化:有人获利离场,有人却逆势加仓。狂 热的背后,是一个被多数人忽略的巨变:黄金,已从印象中稳 健的"避风港",转变为一场高波动的"风险游戏"。 作者:陈植 封图:本报资料室 2月6日早上8点,在上海徐家汇天钥桥路的一家金店里,店主赵乐已早早守候。他正在等待一批特 殊的"回头客"——2月2日,他以1095元/克的价格向这些客户出售300克投资金条。随着金价在 史诗级大跌后迅猛反弹,这批金条在短短两天内账面"升值"约4万元。惊喜之下,客户们毫不犹豫 地决定:再追投300克。 从业多年的赵乐还从未经历过当下这般疯狂的黄金行情。 2026年以来,黄金市场演绎出过山车般的轨迹:COMEX黄金期货价格持续凌厉上涨,1月29日 一度触及5626美元/盎司历史新高,月内最高涨幅近30%;次日金价却掉头向下,恐慌性暴跌 9.25%;2月2日,黄金期货价格继续下挫1.35%。国内黄金期货价格、黄金概念股票和基金品种 全线大跌。 市场在金价巨震中分化:有人获利离场,有人却逆势加仓。 赵乐发现,1月30日以来,希望购买金条的回头客明显增多了,而且是越跌越买。2月3日,黄金 价格上演"V型"反转,涨幅达到6.83%。 ...
广汽与吉利“抱团”新能源商用车
经济观察报· 2026-02-07 05:53
以往自主整车企业之间的合作鲜有成功的先例,此次广汽与吉 利抱团新能源商用车,能否打破这一魔咒? 作者: 濮振宇 封图:图虫创意 1月28日,广汽领程新能源商用车有限公司(下称"广汽领程")与吉利旗下浙江远程新能源商用车 集团有限公司(下称"吉利远程")在广州签署战略合作协议,双方计划围绕客车、VAN类产品推 广以及甲醇电动动力应用、能源加注等生态建设方面开展深度合作。 对于这一合作,吉利远程方面对经济观察报表示,吉利远程与广汽领程的合作还处于初步阶段,暂 时无法透露更多其他具体信息。 从行业来看,广汽领程与吉利远程的合作,是又一起自主整车企业合作的案例。对于已在新能源商 用车领域实现销量领先的吉利远程来说,这是打破区域市场壁垒、寻求新增量的重要一步。对于刚 完成品牌焕新的广汽领程而言,此举是战略性补短,也是其"轻资产"策略的又一个支点。 不过,以往自主整车企业之间的合作鲜有成功的先例,此次广汽与吉利抱团新能源商用车,能否打 破这一魔咒? 领程转型 广汽领程的前身是广汽日野,作为一家中日合资商用车企业,广汽日野在燃油车时代曾凭借日野技 术占据高端市场,但在新能源转型中因决策迟缓而错失先机。2024年的股权重组, ...
“散户交易所”菜百,为回购黄金设限
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 15:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustment of gold repurchase business rules by Cai Bai Co., which includes changes in transaction time and limits to manage risks amid increasing market volatility [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Adjustment - Starting from February 6, Cai Bai Co. has implemented new rules for gold repurchase, including halting operations on weekends and public holidays when the Shanghai Gold Exchange is closed [2][3]. - The adjustments also include setting daily repurchase limits, such as a maximum of 100 kilograms for gold and 200 kilograms for silver, with a total daily repurchase cap of 1 billion yuan [5][6]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the new rules, Cai Bai's stock price rose for four consecutive days, reaching a peak of 28.35 yuan per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 21.8 billion yuan [3][6]. - The stock experienced a significant fluctuation, with a cumulative price change of 20% over three trading days, prompting a trading anomaly announcement [3][9]. Risk Management - The adjustments are seen as a proactive risk management measure in response to a surge in repurchase requests and the inability to lock in gold prices during non-trading days [7][11]. - Other financial institutions, including major banks, have also raised their gold-related business requirements, indicating a broader trend of tightening risk management across the industry [7][11]. Operational Insights - Cai Bai's gold repurchase business is primarily an agency service, where the company helps repurchase gold from individuals and charges a fee [9][10]. - The company utilizes "T+D" contracts to hedge against price fluctuations, allowing them to lock in prices while managing delivery timing [10][11].
客车市场的2025年:暴涨与亏损并存,不出海就出局
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 14:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after the peak of the new energy vehicle replacement cycle, the bus market in 2026 is expected to return to a state of stagnation, with maintaining sales levels being a positive outcome. The industry should focus on eliminating weaker companies to allow stronger ones to gain market share and profit margins, rather than solely pursuing volume growth [1][3]. Group 2 - Recent performance forecasts for A-share listed bus companies indicate significant divergence in profitability for 2025, with some companies expecting nearly double net profit growth while others face "growth without profit" [2]. - Jinlong Automobile and Zhongtong Bus are projected to see substantial net profit increases in 2025, while Ankai Bus is expected to shift from profit to loss [6][8]. - The bus industry is experiencing a small growth peak in 2025, with sales of buses over 6 meters reaching 137,212 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [2]. Group 3 - Jinlong Automobile anticipates a net profit of approximately 463 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 193.68%, driven by growth in overseas markets [6]. - Zhongtong Bus expects a net profit between 320 million and 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.28% to 64.36% [7]. - Yutong Bus, which did not release a full-year forecast, achieved a net profit of 3.292 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.38% [8]. Group 4 - Ankai Bus is projected to incur a loss of 50 million to 60 million yuan in 2025, primarily due to intense market competition leading to a decline in product gross margins [8]. - The company has struggled with profitability since 2013, with only one year of positive non-recurring net profit [8]. Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of internationalization for bus companies, stating that without expanding into overseas markets, companies may struggle to compete domestically [11]. - The demand for buses in international markets is expected to grow, particularly for new energy vehicles, as older buses require replacement [12].
大模型来了,为什么端到端的智能工厂还没有
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 14:31
制造业本质上是物理变换过程,缺乏对物理环境的感知和执行 能力,AI就无法真正落地。鉴于制造链条涉及多供应商的设备 和机器人,AI需统筹具身智能间的协同,确保顶层集成。 作者: 刘劲等 封图:图虫创意 这两年,汹涌而来的人工智能(AI)浪潮让众多制造业企业家和管理层深感焦虑与迷茫。大家普遍意识到AI的重要性:不拥抱AI,担心被时代抛弃, 失去未来发展的入场券;可当真正拥抱AI时,却发现除了简单的应用或依托成熟技术的场景外,企业往往不知从何入手,难以系统性推进,即便尝试 后,效果也与预期相差甚远。麻省理工学院在2025年的一项调研显示,在众多尝试系统性利用AI的企业案例中,仅有约5%取得了成功。 AI在制造业中的应用现状 在理想状态下,端到端的智慧工厂里,AI将全面取代或主导人类在制造业价值链中的角色。从研发、设计、生产、营销到售后服务,所有环节均由AI 驱动或高度自动化。这不仅是为了提升效率,更是要实现无缝、预测性和自适应生产的全智能状态。 然而,理想愿景虽令人向往,但当前制造业的AI应用还远未达到端到端的智慧水平。大多数企业仍处于"点状智能"阶段,AI主要辅助特定环节,而非 系统性主导。 在销售服务环节,由于 ...
单枚毛利低至5毛钱 智能戒指未火先“卷”
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 14:31
Core Viewpoint - The smart ring market is experiencing significant challenges, with low profit margins and intense competition among manufacturers, leading to a saturated and chaotic environment in the hardware sector [2][5][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The processing profit for a smart ring has drastically decreased to between 0.5 to 1 yuan, compared to a much higher profit margin three years ago [2][4]. - The entry of brands like Oura and RingConn has changed the landscape, with many manufacturers pivoting to produce white-label smart rings due to the perceived market potential [3][5]. - The monthly shipment volume of smart rings in Huaqiangbei has reached nearly 800,000 units, indicating a high level of market activity despite low margins [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Many manufacturers are entering the smart ring market, attracted by low technical barriers and the ability to produce using existing supply chains [6][10]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of product homogeneity, with many smart rings offering similar features such as blood oxygen and heart rate monitoring, leading to price competition [6][9]. - Companies like Gyges Labs are attempting to differentiate themselves by focusing on innovative applications, such as AI recording capabilities, rather than competing in the saturated health monitoring segment [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Major tech companies, including Ant Group and various smartphone manufacturers, are exploring the smart ring market, which could lead to increased competition and innovation [14][15]. - The entry of large companies is expected to shift the focus from mere hardware competition to ecosystem and scenario-based competition [14][15]. - The market is anticipated to see significant developments in 2024 as more major players enter the space, although current offerings from smartphone manufacturers have not yet achieved substantial sales [15].
内地与港澳居民互动“新常态”:开始“相互串门子”了
经济观察报· 2026-02-06 13:57
过去几年,"港人北上"已然从小范围兴起逐渐走向日常化,北 上活动半径亦不断扩大。与此同时,内地居民赴港澳旅游也呈 现强劲复苏态势。 作者:张锐 封图:图虫创意 陈先生向经济观察报记者表示,奶茶和鲜花都是给他在香港的妻子带回去的。"关键是这束鲜花, 像这样的一束鲜花在深圳的价格不超过200元,而在香港要花费将近千元。"他说。 买奶茶、鲜花是陈先生这趟深圳之行的最后一项"任务"。当天,他因工作安排从香港到深圳出 差,与客户沟通一份合同的细节。其实,2025年以来,这样的行程对陈先生而言已经由陌生变 得"非常熟练":工作、购物,当日往返香港与深圳。 2月1日,深圳铁路部门通报的数据显示,今年1月,广深港高铁跨境客流累计达263.8万人次。其 中,值得注意的是,跨境客流"双向流动活跃",行程则以商务出行与休闲旅游为主。 2025年,港澳居民北上开始走向生活常态,而内地居民赴港澳的热情也呈现"超预期"复苏之势。 一种"串门子"式的互动,正在内地、香港、澳门三地居民的你来我往之间悄然成型。 2月4日傍晚,香港人陈先生在深圳罗湖口岸出入口处,几乎同一时间接到两位美团外卖员送来的 霸王茶姬奶茶和一束包裹60支玫瑰的花束。陈先 ...