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美联储7月议息会议继续“按兵不动” 9月降息或为时过早
经济观察报· 2025-07-31 10:24
今年以来,美联储连续五次议息会议保持基准利率不变。 从判断9月降息,到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美联储的降息预期不断推迟。 野村全 球宏观研究主管苏博文对经济观察报记者表示:"由于通胀上升,我们认为美联储将非常谨慎,直 到12月才会降息,降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 威灵顿投资管理固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana表示,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上释放 的鹰派立场令市场意外,直接的体现就是短期政府债券遭到抛售。鉴于美国总统特朗普已向美联储 施压要求降息,许多人预期鲍威尔会借此次会议为9月降息做铺垫,但显然这一期望落空了。 从判断9月降息,到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美 联储的降息预期不断推迟。野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文对经 济观察报记者表示:"由于通胀上升,我们认为美联储将非常 谨慎,直到12月才会降息,降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 作者: 胡艳明 封图:图虫创意 北京时间7月31日凌晨,美联储联邦公开市场委员会(The Federal Open Market Committee,下 称"FOMC")宣布,将基准利率维持在4.25%—4.50%区间不变。 降息预期推迟 早在本次议息 ...
最高价差915倍,医保让中成药降价
经济观察报· 2025-07-31 10:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price governance of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products across multiple provinces in China, highlighting the significant price discrepancies and the government's efforts to regulate these prices to alleviate the financial burden on patients and the healthcare system [2][3][5][21]. Group 1: Price Governance Initiatives - Multiple provinces, including Guangxi, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Tianjin, have announced price governance measures for TCM products, indicating a nationwide effort to address high prices [2][3]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has issued a report identifying TCM products with prices significantly higher than the lowest available options, prompting provincial authorities to take action [15][16]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies - There are extreme price differences for the same TCM products across different regions, with some products priced over 100 times higher than the lowest price available [6][9][10][11][12]. - For example, in Ningxia, a single unit of An Gong Niu Huang Wan is priced at 998 yuan, which is 11 times the lowest daily treatment cost for the same product [8]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Price Variability - Price differences can be attributed to variations in ingredients, dosage forms, quality standards, and insufficient market competition, leading to concentrated pricing power among certain manufacturers [13]. - The complexity of TCM formulations and the lack of standardized quality control further exacerbate pricing issues [24]. Group 4: Impact on Pharmaceutical Companies - The price governance measures affect various pharmaceutical companies, including both small enterprises and established publicly listed firms like Tai Chi Group and Huason Pharmaceutical [21]. - Companies are under pressure to adjust their pricing strategies in response to the new regulations, with some indicating that the impact on their operations will be minimal [22]. Group 5: Patient Benefits and Future Outlook - The governance is expected to reduce the financial burden on patients, particularly for commonly used medications for chronic diseases, promoting fairer pricing and rational drug use [23]. - Experts suggest that while price governance is a step forward, it may not fully resolve the issue of price discrepancies, and additional measures such as collective procurement and improved industry standards are necessary [24].
曾合作哪吒汽车,宁德时代滑板底盘公司开启首轮外部融资
经济观察报· 2025-07-31 10:24
Core Viewpoint - CATL is accelerating its skateboard chassis business, focusing on commercial vehicles and specific scenarios like Robotaxi, aiming for breakthroughs in the mid-to-low-end passenger car market [1][15]. Financing and Business Development - CATL's subsidiary, Times Intelligent, is in the process of raising 2 billion yuan in its first external financing round, with a pre-financing valuation of approximately 9 billion yuan [2]. - Times Intelligent, established in 2021, specializes in battery-centric skateboard chassis products and services, and is now opening up equity to external capital for the first time [2][3]. - The financing is driven by the need to alleviate financial pressure due to limited group funding and underperformance in expected sales from partnerships, particularly with Nezha Auto [5]. Technological Advancements - The skateboard chassis, known as CIIC, integrates battery and electric drive systems, allowing for a decoupled design that can adapt to various vehicle bodies [3]. - Recent collaborations with automakers like BAIC, JAC, and Changan Mazda are expected to yield new models by 2026-2027 [7]. Strategic Considerations - CATL's entry into the skateboard chassis market is motivated by the need to bundle its battery business and counteract declining growth rates in its core battery segment [7]. - The company's gross margin has decreased from 43.7% in 2016 to 24.4% in 2024, with market share dropping from 52.1% in 2021 to 43.4% in the first half of 2023 [7]. Market Challenges and Opportunities - The skateboard chassis concept, while historically facing challenges, is now seen as having potential due to its ability to shorten development cycles and reduce costs for electric vehicles [12][13]. - However, third-party chassis companies face challenges in gaining acceptance from traditional automakers, who may prefer to develop their own chassis for differentiation [14]. Future Prospects - CATL is targeting commercial vehicles, specific scenarios like Robotaxi, and cost-effective mid-to-low-end passenger cars as key areas for growth [15]. - A strategic partnership with T3 Mobility aims to advance the development of Robotaxi based on CATL's skateboard chassis platform [15].
帮信罪新规:兼顾未成年人保护与轻罪治理
经济观察报· 2025-07-31 10:24
当前帮信犯罪的被告人35岁以下的占比超80%,25岁以下的占1/3,未成年人、在校学生群体涉案 问题突出。数据背后是电诈团伙对青少年涉世未深、法律意识薄弱这些弱点的精准利用。犯罪团伙 通过诱使未成年人出售"两卡"使其沦为犯罪链条末端的"工具人"。出租一张银行卡就可能获利数百 元,这对经济相对不宽裕的学生群体构成巨大诱惑,再加上法治教育缺位使他们对帮信罪的违法性 认知不足,年轻人很容易不知不觉就踏上了犯罪的道路。 在此背景下,《意见》对未成年涉案群体的"靶向"治理尤为迫切。以司法文件形式系统性地回应未 成年人涉帮信罪的特殊治理需求,将"教育、感化、挽救"方针具象化为可操作的司法标准,为阻断 未成年人犯罪链条提供了制度抓手。其核心价值在于扭转了以往对参与帮信犯罪的未成年涉案人 员"同等"打击而不注意区别保护的倾向,通过建立分级处遇机制,在司法环节筑起防止未成年人沦 为犯罪工具的制度堤坝。 帮信罪新规在宽与严的交织中勾勒了未成年人保护的司法底 线,更以轻罪治理的精细刻度回应了时代需求。当法律不再局 限于惩罚的锋芒毕露,而是致力于编织一张既能震慑罪恶又能 托举未来的法网,我们便向"天下无诈"的理想迈出了坚实一 步。 ...
红相股份实控人杨成被取保候审背后
经济观察报· 2025-07-31 05:39
又一上市公司实控人被取保候审。 7月30日,红相股份(300427.SZ)发布公告称,公司实际控制人杨成因涉嫌违法被厦门市公安局 决定取保候审,期限自2025年7月29日起生效。 公告指出,杨成目前未在该公司担任任何职务,该公司日常经营管理由高管团队负责,此事项不会 对日常生产经营活动产生影响。 7月31日,红相股份开盘大跌近5%。据经济观察报统计,6月份以来,这已经是A股市场第三家实 控人被取保候审的上市公司,另外两家分别为中荣印刷集团股份有限公司(301223.SZ)、甬金科 技集团股份有限公司(603995.SH)。 被取保候审背后 7月31日,经济观察报记者致电红相股份证券事务部,一名人员回应称,此次实控人杨成被取保候 审,系因其此前涉及信息披露违法违规相关事项。目前该公司仍在配合公安机关的调查工作。 7月31日,经济观察报记者致电红相股份证券事务部,一名人 员回应称,此次实控人杨成被取保候审,系因其此前涉及信息 披露违法违规相关事项。目前该公司仍在配合公安机关的调查 工作。 作者: 蔡越坤 封图:图虫创意 上述红相股份证券事务部人员所指信息披露违规事项要追溯至2024年上半年。 2024年4月8日, ...
下半年宏观政策向哪“适时发力”
经济观察报· 2025-07-30 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely enhancements to address current economic challenges and ensure stable growth [1][7]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting calls for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [1][7]. - There is a focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency to support economic recovery [1][7]. - The concept of "flexibility and foresight" in macroeconomic policy is introduced, indicating that policies should be stable yet adaptable to changing circumstances [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, supported by consumption policies and investment from special bonds [4]. - The second quarter growth rate was 5.2%, showing resilience compared to the previous year, where growth rates declined significantly [4]. - However, challenges remain, including potential consumption declines due to high base effects and real estate market instability [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Directions - The meeting outlines the need for continuous policy efforts and the possibility of further policy enhancements in response to economic conditions [8][9]. - Specific policy tools are suggested, including expanding fiscal spending, timely support for affected industries, and promoting consumption through subsidies [10][11][12]. - The potential establishment of a "real estate stability fund" is proposed to alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies [13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterates the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and reducing overall financing costs in the economy [14]. - There is an acknowledgment that while monetary policy remains supportive, the primary reliance for economic growth may shift towards fiscal expansion [14].
茅台原品酒师冯小宁回应被仁怀酒协除名
经济观察报· 2025-07-30 12:59
7月30日上午,冯小宁本人对经济观察报记者回应称:"本来 我是小有名气,(被开除后)现在名气更大了。我已经是68岁 的老妇人,不在酒协(指仁怀酒协)工作,对我没有什么影 响,我本人也没在意。" 作者:张晓晖 封图:图虫创意 2025年7月28日,白酒圈发生一件引起业界关注的事: 68岁的原茅台酒厂品酒师冯小宁,被仁怀市酒业协会(下称"仁怀酒协")以违反协会自律规定为 由,予以除名并公开通报。仁怀酒协没有披露"违反协会自律"相关的细节。 7月30日上午,经济观察报记者就该事项致电仁怀酒协,仁怀酒协一名人员回应称:"冯小宁违反 了我们生产技术专业委员会的管理办法。" 经济观察报记者问:"网上能查到仁怀酒协的管理办法吗?能否得知冯小宁违反协会自律的具体细 节。"上述工作人员称:"(冯小宁被除名)原因已经写在公告里。" 冯小宁曾在茅台酒厂(贵州茅台旧名)担任品酒师,被业内称为"茅台八仙",与季克良、彭茵、陈 兴希、余方强、徐强、陈仁远、丁勇齐名。"茅台八仙"指茅台酒厂早期的八位酿酒大师,他们为茅 台酒的工艺传承和发展作出了卓越贡献。 7月30日上午,冯小宁本人对经济观察报记者回应称:"本来我是小有名气,(被开除后)现 ...
药明康德走出谷底
经济观察报· 2025-07-30 11:23
Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec has returned to sustained high growth after a challenging year impacted by the "Biological Safety Act," with impressive financial results in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery trajectory for the company and the industry [2][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, WuXi AppTec reported revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of 8.6 billion yuan, which doubled compared to the previous year, both reaching historical highs [2][4]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a growth rate of 13%-17% for its ongoing business, up from the previous 10%-15% [4]. Regional Performance - The high growth of WuXi AppTec is primarily supported by U.S. clients, with revenue from this segment increasing by 38.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3][9]. - Revenue from Chinese clients, however, has declined by 5.2%, contributing only 3.2 billion yuan, which is 15% of total revenue [11]. Market Dynamics - WuXi AppTec's international revenue reached 17.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for over 80% of total revenue, with U.S. clients contributing 14 billion yuan [9]. - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by the "Biological Safety Act," with no new legislative proposals emerging in the current U.S. Congress [10]. Business Segments - The second quarter of 2025 was particularly strong, with revenue exceeding 11.1 billion yuan, marking the first time quarterly revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan [14]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the increasing demand for small molecule CDMO services and TIDES (oligonucleotide and peptide) business, with TIDES revenue reaching 5 billion yuan, a 142% increase year-on-year [14][15]. Industry Outlook - The recovery of WuXi AppTec is expected to positively influence the broader CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry, with other companies like Kelun and Kanglongda also reporting improved performance [17].
一位广西高中校长的观察:男女升学人数差距持续扩大背后
经济观察报· 2025-07-30 11:06
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing gender disparity in education in Guangxi, particularly in the transition from junior high to high school, where boys are increasingly underperforming compared to girls [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gender Disparity in Education - In recent years, the gender ratio in Guangxi's high schools has shifted, with girls now making up over 50% of the science classes at Chongzuo High School, a significant increase from 15 years ago when girls constituted only 25-33% of the student body [2][4]. - The admission rates for boys to regular high schools are declining, with many boys in rural areas failing to meet the academic standards required for high school admission [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Family and Societal Factors - Many boys in rural areas tend to drop out of school and either engage in low-skilled jobs or remain idle at home, relying on their parents for support [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "left-behind children" is prevalent, with many children being cared for by grandparents while their parents work away, leading to a lack of educational focus and discipline [12][14]. Group 3: Psychological and Behavioral Issues - The over-reliance on smartphones among children is noted as a significant issue, with many children starting to use devices at a very young age, which affects their learning and social behavior [9][10][11]. - The lack of parental involvement in education, particularly in families with low educational backgrounds, contributes to poor academic performance and a lack of motivation among boys [14][15]. Group 4: Long-term Consequences - The educational gender gap is leading to a mismatch in the local job market, with more educated women than men, resulting in challenges in marriage prospects and family stability [16][17]. - The increasing number of single-parent families, often due to divorce, is creating a new generation of "left-behind children," exacerbating the cycle of educational neglect and psychological issues [17][18]. Group 5: Recommendations for Change - There is a call for societal-level changes to improve family education and parental involvement, emphasizing the need for both parents to participate in their children's education to foster independence and resilience [20].
《南京照相馆》难言“黑马” ,暑期档还要勇于破局
经济观察报· 2025-07-30 11:06
Core Viewpoint - The current downturn in the film market cannot be solely attributed to audience behavior or the quality of works, indicating a more complex phenomenon that requires deeper analysis [1][6]. Box Office Performance - As of July 29, 2023, the total box office for the summer season (June 1 - August 31) exceeded 5.5 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" grossing 536 million yuan in its first five days and projected to reach 3.246 billion yuan [2]. - By mid-July, the box office was only 3.412 billion yuan, lower than the 3.848 billion yuan earned by the 2023 summer box office champion "All In," highlighting the industry's pressure [2]. - The 2023 summer box office total is projected to be significantly lower than the 20.62 billion yuan in 2023 and 17.653 billion yuan in 2019, raising concerns among industry professionals [2]. Film Quality and Audience Engagement - "Nanjing Photo Studio" has a high Douban rating of 8.6, but its box office performance needs a significant boost to be considered a true "dark horse" [3][4]. - The film's serious historical theme may deter some viewers due to emotional weight, similar to the past performance of "1942," which had a high rating but low box office [5]. - Despite the overall quality of films this summer being commendable, audience engagement remains a challenge, as seen with "The Lychee of Chang'an," which, despite good ratings, is projected to earn only 660 million yuan [5]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The film industry is facing a complex set of challenges, including shifts in consumer spending, public psychological expectations, and changes in the entertainment environment [6]. - The industry must focus on creating films that resonate with audiences on a deeper emotional level, as past strategies relying on emotional triggers are no longer as effective [6]. - Regardless of the summer box office outcome, filmmakers should strive to create timeless classics that can ensure the industry's future survival and growth [7].