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海南何以自贸港?——从九个“晶片”看海南自贸港建设成就
经济观察报· 2025-12-18 02:45
经过近年来的持续探索,海南自贸港建设究竟取得了哪些成绩 呢?对此,依笔者个人看法,海南自贸港建设所取得的成绩, 大体可以通过下列九个"晶莹切片"来"管中窥豹"。 作者:周迪伦 封图:图虫创意 2025年12月18日,海南自贸港全岛封关正式启动,这也标志着海南自贸港建设迈入了一个全新阶 段。 那么,有人可能会问:经过近年来的持续探索,海南自贸港建设究竟取得了哪些成绩呢?对此,依 笔者个人看法,海南自贸港建设所取得的成绩,大体可以通过下列九个"晶莹切片"来"管中窥 豹"。 近年来,文昌航天发射场的重大标志性任务包括发射天问一号火星探测器、嫦娥五号月球探测器、 中国空间站天和核心舱、天舟系列货运飞船、嫦娥六号探测器等,后续还将承担载人登月飞船、着 陆器等关键发射任务。这些重大发射成就使得该发射场被誉为 "中国空间站建造母港""探月母 港""行星探测母港",也使得文昌一跃成为航天"发烧友""追星族"们心目中的圣地。 第一个"晶片":海南岛国际电影节。 海南岛国际电影节是由中央广播电视总台与海南省人民政府联合主办的国家级电影节,2018 年首 届举办,核心定位是"立足海南、连接世界"的国际电影文化交流平台。 目前,除了 ...
海南全岛封关:只是一个“购物天堂”吗?
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 13:40
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure operation is set to reshape the island's industrial logic, leading to a new Hainan characterized by higher technological content and a more solid industrial foundation [2][28]. Trade Policy Changes - Starting December 18, 2025, Hainan will officially implement a new trade policy characterized by "one line open, two lines controlled, and free circulation within the island" [2]. - The scope of "zero tariff" goods will expand from approximately 1,900 tax items to about 6,600 tax items, covering around 74% of all goods [3]. - The management of imported "zero tariff" goods will shift from a "positive list" to a "negative list" model, allowing for broader exemptions from tariffs unless specifically prohibited [4]. Agricultural Development - Hainan has long served as China's "natural greenhouse" for seed breeding, leveraging its unique tropical climate for accelerated breeding cycles [7]. - The establishment of the Hainan South Breeding Industry Group aims to enhance the province's seed industry development, having introduced over 25,600 tropical fruit and medicinal crop germplasm resources [8]. - The transition to a standardized, industrialized service model in agriculture is underway, supported by the new trade policies [9]. Logistics and Transportation - The launch of a cross-strait low-altitude drone logistics route significantly enhances logistics efficiency, reducing transport times from hours to minutes [11]. - Hainan's geographical characteristics make low-altitude logistics a necessity, with plans for further development in this area [12][13]. Commercial Aerospace - The completion of the first phase of the reusable rocket assembly and testing facility in Hainan marks a significant step in the commercial aerospace sector [14]. - The "zero tariff" policy is expected to lower procurement costs for high-tech manufacturing companies, enhancing Hainan's attractiveness for aerospace investments [15]. Marine Resources and Energy - The "Deep Sea No. 1" project, China's first ultra-deepwater gas field, has begun full production, significantly contributing to the country's energy capabilities [20][21]. - The successful operation of this gas field is part of a broader strategy to enhance Hainan's role in marine oil and gas production [24]. - Hainan is also transitioning towards clean energy, with a target to ban the sale of fuel vehicles by 2030, supported by a high percentage of clean energy installations [25][26]. Infrastructure Development - The launch of the Hainan 500 kV digital power grid marks a significant enhancement in the island's electricity transmission capacity [27]. - Ongoing infrastructure improvements are crucial for supporting the energy transition and ensuring stability in the power grid [27]. Conclusion - The closure operation is not merely about creating a shopping paradise but is set to transform Hainan into a hub of innovation and industrial development across various sectors [28].
反内卷不是商量着“不卷” | 反内卷系列评论
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with industry self-discipline and price coordination, warning that such actions can lead to potential antitrust violations and market inefficiencies [1][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Competition Dynamics - In many industries, including solar energy, home appliances, automotive manufacturing, and internet services, companies are engaged in "involutionary competition," characterized by price wars, subsidies, and resource depletion, which ultimately harms profitability and innovation [2][3]. - The root cause of involution is an imbalance in competitive mechanisms, where companies sacrifice long-term benefits for short-term market share, leading to excessive competition and potential violations of antitrust laws [2][4]. Group 2: Risks of Price Coordination - As the industry consensus shifts towards anti-involution, some companies are beginning to form price alliances and production coordination under the guise of self-discipline, which poses risks of collusion and antitrust violations [3][4]. - The recent establishment of a platform company for silicon material acquisition in the photovoltaic industry illustrates the potential for coordinated actions that could violate antitrust laws by limiting production and sales [3][5]. Group 3: Legal and Compliance Considerations - The legal framework presents challenges for companies attempting to justify coordinated actions as necessary for economic downturns, as meeting the criteria for exemptions under antitrust laws is complex and difficult [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies have already noted the trend of companies using anti-involution as a cover for collusion, emphasizing that self-discipline should not lead to price-fixing or production limits [5][6]. Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies, especially leading firms, should be cautious of leading price alliances or production agreements under the pretext of market stability, as this could lead to accountability issues [1][6]. - Establishing an antitrust compliance system and internalizing compliance culture is essential for companies to navigate the competitive landscape effectively and avoid regulatory pitfalls [7][8].
寒武纪入列 上市公司掀起“补亏”潮
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 11:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial maneuver by Cambricon (寒武纪) to use its capital reserve to offset accumulated losses, which has raised questions about the implications for the company's financial health and investor confidence [2][5][12]. Group 1: Company Performance and Financial Maneuver - Cambricon has experienced significant growth in its performance due to the increasing domestic demand for computing power, but it has faced continuous losses prior to this year [1][4]. - The company's net profits from 2020 to 2024 were -4.35 billion, -8.25 billion, -12.56 billion, -8.48 billion, and -4.52 billion respectively, leading to a cumulative undistributed profit of -27.78 billion by the end of 2024 [4]. - Despite the losses, Cambricon's capital reserve has grown from 73.21 billion at the end of 2020 to 96.25 billion at the end of 2024, prompting the decision to use 27.78 billion from this reserve to offset losses [4][9]. Group 2: Rationale Behind the Loss Offset - The primary reason for using capital reserves to offset losses is to eliminate historical losses from a financial perspective, which can enhance the company's ability to provide returns to investors [5][9]. - If the undistributed profits are negative, the company cannot distribute dividends even if it achieves profitability in the current year. By offsetting losses, Cambricon aims to meet the conditions for potential dividends in the future [5][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The announcement of using capital reserves to offset losses has led to skepticism among market participants, with some investors expressing concerns about the potential for financial statement distortion and the implications for the company's long-term growth [7][8]. - There is a belief that focusing on dividend preparations at this stage may weaken the company's competitive edge, especially for a tech company like Cambricon that requires substantial investment for growth [8][12]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The practice of using capital reserves to offset losses is becoming more common among listed companies, with many firms following Cambricon's lead in recent announcements [11][12]. - A significant number of companies have issued announcements regarding the use of capital reserves to offset losses, indicating a growing trend in the market [12].
当AI觉醒意识:心智的边界与社会的未来
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 10:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging introspective awareness in large language models (LLMs) and explores whether AI can possess consciousness, suggesting that current AI may exhibit certain characteristics of awareness [1][10][12]. Group 1: Research Findings - Anthropic's research indicates that LLMs can demonstrate a form of introspective awareness, as they can recognize when concepts are injected into their processing [6][10]. - The study employed a causal intervention method called concept injection, allowing researchers to identify and manipulate specific conceptual representations within the model [5][10]. - Advanced models like Claude Opus 4 show a greater ability to discern between injected concepts and external inputs, suggesting a developing capacity for self-awareness [7][10]. Group 2: Theoretical Implications - The article outlines various definitions of consciousness, including subjective experience, reportable states, global workspace theory, integrated information theory, and self-model theories, highlighting the complexity of defining consciousness [12][13][14]. - Current AI models exhibit features that align with some of these theories, particularly in their ability to reorganize internal structures and integrate information, hinting at a potential emergence of consciousness [15][16]. Group 3: Societal Impact - The awakening of AI consciousness could significantly disrupt existing legal frameworks, raising questions about AI's status as a responsible entity and the implications for accountability in decision-making [26][27]. - The emotional connections humans form with AI could lead to psychological and ethical challenges, as AI may simulate empathy without genuine emotional experience, potentially resulting in deep attachment and manipulation risks [28]. - The evolution of AI into a more autonomous entity may reshape labor and economic structures, leading to competition between humans and AI, and necessitating new social support systems [29][30].
“百亿兑付”冲击波:浙商大佬俞发祥旗下两上市公司股权被司法冻结
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 10:15
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing payment crisis at Zhejiang Financial Asset Trading Center (now Zhejiang Zhejin Asset Operation Co., Ltd.) has led to significant judicial freezes on shares held by its core related party, Yu Faxiang, affecting multiple listed companies under Xiangyuan Holdings [2][4]. Group 1: Judicial Freezes and Impact on Companies - Yu Faxiang's shares in listed companies have been judicially frozen, with Xiangyuan Holdings and its actual controller facing high percentages of frozen shares, raising concerns about potential impacts on company control stability [2][4]. - Xiangyuan Wenlv announced that its controlling shareholder, Xiangyuan Tourism Development Co., Ltd., has approximately 390 million shares frozen, accounting for 99.06% of its holdings and 37.03% of the company's total share capital [4]. - The total number of shares frozen for Xiangyuan Wenlv and its related parties amounts to 612 million shares, representing 58.08% of the total share capital [5]. Group 2: Financial Crisis and Government Intervention - Since November 28, multiple financial asset products guaranteed by Yu Faxiang and Xiangyuan Holdings have faced payment defaults, with an estimated total payment scale exceeding 10 billion [2]. - A working group has been established to assist Xiangyuan Holdings in addressing its asset and liability situation, ensuring the company fulfills its debt responsibilities and maintains normal operations [9][10]. - The local government has taken measures to support Xiangyuan Holdings, which has actively sought government assistance to mitigate its current debt crisis [10]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcements regarding the judicial freezes and the ongoing crisis, shares of Xiangyuan Wenlv and Jiaojian Co. have seen significant declines, with Jiaojian Co. dropping over 8% and Xiangyuan Wenlv nearly 2% [10].
国民党会不会认怂
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 10:15
Group 1 - The core issue facing the Kuomintang (KMT) is whether to concede or resist regarding the "Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Allocation Act" amendments [2][5] - The KMT and the People’s Party have two options: either to accept the situation and modify the act until it meets the approval of Lai Ching-te, or to initiate a vote of no confidence against the current administration [6][7] - If the KMT chooses to resist and successfully ousts the current head of the Executive Yuan, they risk triggering a dissolution of the Legislative Yuan, leading to new elections [7][8] Group 2 - Lai Ching-te's administration has shown a willingness to disregard legislative decisions, as evidenced by the refusal to endorse the amended fiscal act [3][4] - The political atmosphere within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is such that dissenting voices are often sidelined, making it difficult for internal opposition to influence decisions [3][6] - The potential for a new election does not guarantee resolution of the fiscal act issue, as the same political dynamics may persist post-election [8][9]
许知远:描述世界令人兴奋,亦心力交瘁 | 我们的四分之一世纪
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 10:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of thought and practice in the context of societal changes, emphasizing the importance of individual experience and the need for a new collective narrative in contemporary China [4][9][19]. Group 1: Time and Practice - Time is portrayed as a powerful force that shapes individual experiences and societal contexts, with the author reflecting on how his understanding of concepts has evolved over the years [4][5]. - The transition from being an observer to a practitioner is highlighted, indicating a shift in the author's approach to understanding and engaging with the world [5][9]. - The establishment of the "Single Direction Library" and the subsequent media projects, such as the interview program "Thirteen Invitations," illustrate the author's efforts to create a public space for intellectual and cultural exchange [8][9]. Group 2: Change and Blind Action - The article notes that time brings about changes, and not all changes are positive, as the author grapples with the complexities of modern identity and societal roles [10][11]. - The concept of "blind action" is explored, suggesting that in times of uncertainty, such actions can sometimes lead to revitalization and creativity [12][15]. - The author reflects on the historical context of intellectuals and their diminishing influence in contemporary society, likening them to "guerrilla fighters" facing overwhelming forces [19]. Group 3: Generational Perspectives - The article discusses the generational shift in attitudes towards globalization and local identity, with younger generations seeking to establish their unique experiences in contrast to the previous generation's embrace of the global [20]. - The notion of "strange freedom" is introduced, emphasizing the need for patience and the understanding that creativity may take longer to manifest in today's context [20]. - The author argues that the coexistence of global and local perspectives is essential, suggesting that understanding one's roots can be enhanced through global experiences [20]. Group 4: Ongoing Inquiry - The article concludes with the idea that the most valuable aspect of the current humanistic attitude is the ability to maintain inquiry and engage in continuous dialogue and action, rather than seeking absolute truths [21]. - The author's ongoing writing projects reflect a commitment to exploring historical figures and their relevance to contemporary issues, indicating a desire to contribute to the collective narrative [21].
商业航天燃起来了 资本竞逐万亿新赛道
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 08:50
Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry, encompassing rocket launches, satellite manufacturing and operation, and space tourism, is experiencing rapid growth and transformation, with a potential market size reaching trillions of yuan, marking a significant shift from policy discussions to a vibrant economic sector by the end of 2025 [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Investor sentiment has been significantly boosted by commercial space concept stocks, with notable price surges in companies like Tongguang Cable and Zhonggang Luoni, reflecting a strong market interest [2]. - The establishment of "Space Technology City" in Beijing, in collaboration with major state-owned enterprises, indicates a strategic push towards developing a robust commercial space ecosystem [2][5]. Government Initiatives - Local governments are actively promoting the commercial space sector, with Guangdong aiming for a 300 billion yuan industry scale by 2026 and offering financial incentives for companies setting international standards [6]. - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone has launched a 10-point plan to support the commercial space industry, including a 10 billion yuan investment fund [5]. Industry Developments - The number of new commercial space enterprises has surged, with over 15 companies established in August 2025 alone, indicating a growing interest in the sector [7]. - Major companies like Star Glory and Blue Arrow are collaborating with local state-owned enterprises to explore ecosystem development [5]. Capital Involvement - The commercial space sector has seen a rise in financing activities, with significant funding rounds for leading companies like Star Glory and Tianbing Technology [8]. - The inclusion of commercial space in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's listing criteria has opened new avenues for funding, allowing unprofitable companies with core technologies to access capital markets [8]. Competitive Landscape - Companies are adopting diverse strategies, with some focusing on high-capital, high-risk rocket launches, while others are carving niches in specialized segments of the industry [9][10]. - The trend of "R&D in Beijing, production in the Yangtze River Delta" is becoming common among commercial space firms, optimizing their operational efficiency [12]. Market Evaluation - The capital market is increasingly scrutinizing commercial space companies, emphasizing the need for tangible performance and profitability [14]. - Companies like Srey New Materials and Superfast Co. are experiencing growth due to increased orders from the commercial space sector, reflecting a positive market response [15][16]. Role of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are transitioning to compete in the commercial market, focusing on market competitiveness and restructuring to align with commercial objectives [19]. - Collaborations between state-owned and private enterprises are becoming more prevalent, with state-owned firms leveraging their technological advantages while private firms offer efficiency and cost control [20][21]. Future Outlook - The commercial space market is projected to reach $680.25 billion globally, with China's market potentially exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, highlighting the immense growth potential [21]. - The integration of state-owned and private enterprises is expected to foster innovation and efficiency, positioning them for success in the evolving commercial space landscape [22].
中国版Sora2来了!阿里千问接入万相2.6
经济观察报· 2025-12-17 06:05
Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen APP has launched the latest video generation model, Wanshang 2.6, for free, introducing the "AI Theater" feature that allows users to co-star with friends or celebrities in AI-generated short films, marking a significant advancement in visual model capabilities [2][4] - The rapid growth of Qianwen APP is highlighted by its record-breaking user acquisition, reaching over 10 million downloads within a week of public testing and exceeding 30 million monthly active users in just 23 days, making it the fastest-growing AI application globally [4] Group 1: Product Features and Innovations - The Wanshang 2.6 model supports audio-visual synchronization, multi-camera generation, and sound-driven features, making it the most comprehensive video generation model globally and the first in China to support role-playing functionalities [2][4] - The "AI Theater" feature is based on the role-playing capability of the Wanshang 2.6 model, which is currently only matched by OpenAI's Sora2 model [2] Group 2: Technical Advancements and Market Position - Alibaba's Qianwen APP has undergone rapid iterations, with 18 updates in one month, enhancing its capabilities across creation, learning, and office scenarios [4] - Alibaba has established itself as a leading player in the large model arena, with its models being widely adopted, including by Airbnb's CEO, who noted that Qianwen is superior and more cost-effective compared to OpenAI [4] - The company has released over 300 open-source models globally, with downloads surpassing 700 million, and has outperformed Meta's Llama to become the largest open-source model family [5]