Core Viewpoint - Fosun Pharma is optimistic about the potential of the Alzheimer's drug "971," expecting it to complete clinical trials by the end of 2028, receive approval in the first half of 2029, and enter health insurance by 2030, with peak sales projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by 2035 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition and Financial Implications - Fosun Pharma announced plans to invest approximately 1.412 billion yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical, known for the drug "971" [2]. - Following the acquisition announcement, Fosun Pharma's stock fell by 4.22% in A-shares and 5.81% in Hong Kong, indicating market skepticism regarding the decision [3]. - The overall cost for the domestic Phase III clinical trial is estimated to be 685 million yuan, with additional funding planned based on progress [6]. Group 2: Clinical Trial and Regulatory Path - The clinical trial for "971" will be conducted in collaboration with Green Valley Pharmaceutical, with a target of enrolling over 1,900 patients [6][7]. - The expected timeline for completing the registration-confirmatory Phase III clinical trial is by the end of 2028, with a streamlined approval process anticipated to take about 5 to 6 months [6][7]. - The drug's target patient population is estimated to be around 3.56 million, with a market penetration rate projected at 22% [7]. Group 3: Efficacy Controversies - The efficacy of "971" has faced significant scrutiny, with notable criticisms from scholars regarding its mechanism of action and clinical trial data [9][11]. - Despite the controversies, Fosun Pharma maintains confidence in the drug's effectiveness, citing clinical data from over 800 patients that reportedly show better results than placebo [9][12]. - The drug's commercial potential remains strong, with high demand leading to inflated prices in the market, significantly above previous insurance prices [12][13]. Group 4: Company Background and Future Outlook - Green Valley Pharmaceutical, founded by Lü Songtao, has a history of controversial products, but "971" has been a focal point of its business strategy [15][16]. - Following the acquisition, Green Valley will become a subsidiary of Fosun Pharma, with its future operations primarily focused on clinical trials [16]. - The financial impact of Green Valley's operations on Fosun Pharma's overall financials is expected to be minimal in the short term, as the focus will be on completing the necessary clinical work [16].

知情者向经济观察报记者介绍，在法院宣判前两日，即2025 年11月25日，经海淀法院决定，将马大明逮捕，并羁押在看 守所内。而在被羁押前，马大明在社交平台上，连续6天每天 发数条道歉视频。不过在11月27日宣判后，他又当庭表示要 上诉。 作者：李微敖 封图：经观智创 尽管在被收押前，连续6天每天发数条道歉视频，并曾自称"认罪认罚"，45岁的网络博主、南京 仙女棋圣办公用品有限公司（下称"仙女棋圣公司"）法定代表人马大明，因为对两位中国象棋名 家进行了长时间的持续"网暴"，近日被法院一审判犯有侮辱罪、诽谤罪两桩罪行，合并共处有期 徒刑6个月。 2025年12月，数位消息人士告诉了经济观察报记者上述信息。 他们介绍，在宣判前两日，马大明已被逮捕并被羁押于看守所内。宣判后，马大明当庭提出上诉。 至2025年12月16日，该案二审尚未有结果。 缘起中国象棋"录音门"事件 这起案件的源头之一，始于2023年的中国象棋"录音门"事件。 2023年4月前后，两位中国象棋特级大师王跃飞与郝继超的一段通话录音，在网络上开始传播。 这段录音中，两人提及王天一，并谈到王跃飞、王天一参与"买棋"，操纵象棋比赛之事，并疑似 提到使用" ...

上述情况通报对此回应：患儿手术所在手术间配有两个监控摄像头，其中一个用于实时监控的广角全景摄像头，未配置存储介质，不具备回放功能。 在浙江省公共资源交易服务平台上，2023年宁波市妇女儿童医院南院安防系统改造项目中标（成交）结果公告显示，该院安防系统改造项目中标编号 为NBITC-202311262G。一份网传截图显示，该编号中标的监控品牌为海康威视。 从12月15日开始，部分关心"宁波小洛熙事件"的网友、海康威视的小股东们在社交媒体上，要求海康威视对通报提及的内容进行回应。 手术间是否配置监控，成为小洛熙家属、网友们关注的其中一 个矛盾点。 作者： 任晓宁 封图：图虫创意 12月16日，部分网友在微博、小红书等社交媒体上发帖点名海康威视（002415.SZ），要求官方回应"海康威视的监控是否有硬盘，是否带存储和回放 功能"。 这场突如其来的产品舆情和1个多月前的一场医疗纠纷有关。11月14日，5月龄早产女婴许某某（家属和网友称其为"小洛熙"）在宁波大学附属妇女儿 童医院接受心脏手术后不幸离世。 12月14日，宁波市卫健委发布的情况通报指出，医疗团队存在"手术风险评估不足、手术操作存在过失、术中突发情况未及时 ...

要立个好榜样，首先，要以"公心"推进收储大计，这个"公 心"就是行业的长期健康发展。行业头部企业既是硅料收储的 参与者，也是直接受益者，通过市场化的"收储"，头部企业能 够获得市场份额和利润提升,这本无可厚非，但不能让收储"异 化"为头部企业的盛宴，而忽视中小企业和整个产业链的利 益。 作者：宋笛 封图：图虫创意 近日，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司完成注册，标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收 购平台"正式落地。这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新， 被视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键之一。 这无疑是一次冒险的尝试。从构想到落地,收储方案忽隐忽现，各种"小作文"反复出现,让市场起起 伏伏。这种起伏本身就说明，方案潜藏着对市场的巨大影响力，需要格外谨慎对待。 更重要的是，硅料收储不仅是光伏行业自身的探索，它还承担着为其他深陷"内卷式"恶性竞争行 业提供可复制范本的使命。中国不少产业都面临类似困境，如何在市场化、法治化的框架内化解这 些矛盾,多晶硅行业正在先行先试。 硅料收储是一次"有效市场+有为政府"结合的探索，是一次难得的民营企业自发协调的尝试。如果 成功，可为其他行业 ...

退货乱象的频发，已然在行业、消费者乃至公众之间织就了一 张不信任的网。电商平台要走出买卖双方互不信任的怪圈，靠 的不是"各出奇招"的吊牌，而是更清晰的平台规则。 作者：刘诚 封图：图虫创意 近期，电商服装行业"巨型吊牌、密码锁防退货"引发社会关注。在仅退款规则退出电商平台之 后，无理由退货又成为众矢之的，引发人们对平台规则的反思。商家这种"以防代管"的思路不仅 损害购物体验，也激化了买卖双方的信任危机。故需呼吁平台优化退货机制，在保障消费者正当权 益的同时，积极建立更公平透明的纠纷处理体系，避免规则被滥用或反向扭曲。唯有平衡好消费者 与商家的利益，才能推动电商生态健康可持续发展。 退货纠纷增多引商家奇葩招数 近年来，我国电商平台的退货率显著上升，某些平台的退货率甚至高达60%。这种趋势不仅反映 了消费市场的疲软，还揭示了消费者购物习惯的持续变化。一些消费者利用"凑单满减"和七天无 理由退货政策，形成了"先买后退"的消费模式。这种行为增加了商家和平台成本，更让快递行业 承受沉重压力。《中国直播电商行业研究报告》显示，女装网购退货率普遍在50%至60%之间， 男装网购退货率则在30%至40%之间，更令人担忧的是， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current core issue in the soda ash market has shifted from simple price fluctuations to a cost competition among different production processes [1][14]. Market Dynamics - As of December 16, 2025, the main contract for soda ash (SA401) closed at 1463 yuan/ton, down 2.66%, indicating ongoing volatility around the cost line [2]. - The price range of 1160 to 1190 yuan/ton has been observed, with total domestic soda ash inventory at 1.4943 million tons, remaining historically high despite a slight decrease in social inventory [5]. - The supply side has seen reduced operating rates due to losses and maintenance, while demand from the float glass industry has weakened due to ongoing losses [5][6]. Cost Structure - The production of soda ash is primarily divided into three processes: ammonia-soda process, soda-lime process, and natural soda process, with significant cost differences [14]. - The natural soda process can maintain costs below 1000 yuan/ton, while the soda-lime process has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 yuan/ton, and the ammonia-soda process exceeds 1300 yuan/ton [14]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda process are facing severe losses, leading to difficult decisions regarding production and maintenance [15]. Market Behavior - Low-cost producers are adopting strategies to increase market share, while high-cost producers are caught in a "prisoner's dilemma," where reducing production could lead to loss of market share [16]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost capacity to exit the market to restore supply-demand balance [17]. Trading Strategies - The trading logic is evolving due to the lack of clear trends, with participants focusing on basis, price spreads, and process profits [19]. - Companies are shifting to dynamic and proportional hedging strategies, adjusting their positions based on price movements relative to production costs [20]. - The options market is becoming more active, providing new tools for companies and investors to manage uncertainty [21].

一般来说，"第5年末赎回"被视为一种"准到期安排"。当行权 窗口开启，险企通常选择赎回旧债，再以更低成本发行新债进 行置换，以优化财务结构。国华人寿放弃行权的选择引起了市 场关注，但这并非个例。 作者： 姜鑫 陈胡永 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月17日，国华人寿保险股份有限公司（下称"国华人寿"）即将支付30亿元资本补充债 券的利息。 这只发行于2020年的资本补充债券，到2025年12月17日正好满5年，国华人寿拥有赎回的权 利，但是选择了放弃。一般来说，"第5年末赎回"被视为一种"准到期安排"。当行权窗口开启，险 企通常选择赎回旧债，再以更低成本发行新债进行置换，以优化财务结构。 国华人寿放弃行权的选择引起了市场关注，但这并非个例。浙商证券研报显示，截至2025年10月 初，保险次级债市场已出现12只不赎回债券，这些债券的发行主体普遍呈现出净资产体量偏小、 经营承压、偿付能力接近监管红线等特征。 为何放弃赎回 发行债券是金融机构补充资本金的常用手段，对于险企来说，永续债可以纳入核心二级资本，资本 补充债券可以纳入附属一级资本，分别可以提升核心偿付率和综合偿付率。由于险企发行永续债在 2022年才开闸且 ...

备战春节，高端白酒市场的"生肖大战"已悄然打响。作为中国 老八大名酒之一的古井贡酒，率先亮剑。近日，古井贡酒正式 发布了年份原浆·古20丙午马年生肖纪念酒。这是该高端系列 连续第六年推出生肖产品，标志着古井贡酒在高端化、文化的 战略路径上，再落一子。 作者：关关 封图：图片资料室 备战春节，高端白酒市场的"生肖大战"已悄然打响。作为中国老八大名酒之一的古井贡酒，率先 亮剑。近日，古井贡酒正式发布了年份原浆·古20丙午马年生肖纪念酒。这是该高端系列连续第六 年推出生肖产品，标志着古井贡酒在高端化、文化的战略路径上，再落一子。 与往年不同，马年生肖酒的发布，正值消费者对产品文化价值与品质内涵要求提升的关键之年，这 款以"龙马精神"为核心意象的产品，正中消费者的消费心理和消费场景。 从"文化符号"到"精神图腾" 生肖酒早已不是简单的节日限量品，而是品牌与消费者进行深度文化对话的媒介。这款马年生肖 酒，古井贡酒选择了更具哲学深度与时代共鸣的切入点——"龙马精神"。 产品设计摒弃了传统生肖形象的直白呈现。瓶身延续经典的盘龙造型，瓶盖则以精密切割工艺，抽 象化地勾勒出骏马扬蹄的瞬间轮廓，一动一静，暗合《易经》中"乾为龙， ...

如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要 期待政策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济 工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨周期，推动投 资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定具体的 增速底线。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降 2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速 下滑的态势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固 投增速预计将为负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续6个 月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作 用，有效激发民间投资活力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in instant lottery ticket sales is attributed to multiple factors, including economic conditions suppressing consumer willingness, long-term shortages disrupting consumption habits, and insufficient product appeal that is out of sync with current consumer trends [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Decline Factors - Economic environment has significantly reduced consumer willingness to spend, leading to a notable drop in average transaction value [4][8]. - Long-term supply shortages have interrupted consumer habits, resulting in a substantial loss of customer base [4][8]. - The lack of product attractiveness and failure to align with contemporary consumption trends have contributed to the decline [4][8]. Group 2: Sales Performance Insights - A lottery store reported that sales of instant tickets have dropped to less than 200 yuan in a day, compared to several thousand yuan previously [3]. - The sales of instant lottery tickets have seen a drastic decline over three years, with last year's supply shortages directly impacting this year's sales [3][6]. - The average transaction value for lottery purchases in Beijing's Chaoyang District has decreased from 120-150 yuan in 2024 to 50-70 yuan in 2025, a drop of over 50% [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The instant lottery ticket segment accounts for 21% of total lottery sales in China, indicating potential for growth compared to international standards [4]. - The supply mechanism has been imbalanced, with some stores receiving significantly less inventory than needed, leading to a "cold period" in the market [8][10]. - The traditional reliance on "winning hype" is diminishing as consumers seek more engaging and innovative products, particularly among the younger generation [10]. Group 4: Statistical Discrepancies - National lottery sales data shows an overall increase, with total sales reaching 5230.30 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a 1.9% increase year-on-year [12]. - Instant lottery sales in October 2025 were 97.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7% [13]. - The disparity between reported sales data and actual store experiences is attributed to structural issues in statistical mechanisms, including inflated sales figures due to pre-emptive inventory purchases [14][15].