28 May 2025 | 7:23PM IST MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT): TechNet India 2025 - Key Takeaways: Robust growth and FCF outlook; more clarity on capital allocation; Buy We hosted MakeMyTrip at our GS TechNet India in Singapore, where the company shared incremental details in demand outlook, outbound travel, economics and capital allocation. Key takeaways include: (i) MMYT expects to grow more than 2x of the underlying travel market (20% YoY) for the foreseeable future, largely led by volume growth; (ii) MMYT has seen li ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rentokil Initial Plc is Neutral [4][7]. Core Views - The sale of the French Workwear business for approximately €410 million ($465 million) is aligned with the company's strategy to streamline operations towards lower capital expenditure pest and hygiene businesses [3][4]. - The transaction is expected to improve the group's capital expenditure to sales ratio and cash flow, with free cash flow conversion benefiting by approximately 100 basis points [3][4]. - The Workwear business generated revenues of $324 million and operational EBITA of $57 million in FY24, indicating a margin of approximately 17.7% [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The transaction values the Workwear business at approximately 1.4x EV/Sales and 8x EV/EBITA based on 2024 estimates, and about 3x EV/EBITDA assuming capital expenditures equal depreciation and amortization [2][4]. - The expected net cash proceeds from the sale are approximately €370 million ($420 million) [1][2]. - The company's 12-month price target is set at 425p, with an upside potential of 20% from the current price of 354.2p [7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for Rentokil Initial Plc are projected to grow from $6.94 billion in 2024 to $7.87 billion by 2027 [7]. - EBITA is expected to increase from $1.065 billion in 2024 to $1.277 billion in 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in earnings per share (EPS), from $0.27 in 2024 to $0.32 in 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) with a 12-month price target of $33.00, indicating a downside potential of 13.1% from the current price of $37.97 [14]. Core Insights - Management believes it is in a landlord's market, with strong tenant demand for Class A office space in Manhattan and constrained new supply due to high replacement costs and interest rates [3]. - VNO's New York occupancy rate decreased from 88.8% at the end of Q4 2024 to 84.4% in Q1 2025 but is expected to rise to the low 90% range within 12 months due to leasing activity [3]. - The company completed significant leasing transactions, including a 337,000 square foot lease by Universal Music Group at PENN 2 and a 222,000 square foot lease at 555 California Street in San Francisco [3][4]. - VNO's 2025 comparable FFO is expected to be flat compared to 2024, with growth anticipated by 2027 driven by the lease-up of PENN 1 and PENN 2 [4]. Financial Performance - VNO's NTM FFO is currently trading at 17.9x, below its historical average of 22.3x, while trading at a 6.0% premium relative to the REIT sector [10]. - On an AFFO basis, VNO is trading at 37.9x NTM AFFO, significantly higher than its pre-pandemic average of 32.0x, with an 88% premium compared to the REITs average [10]. - The report provides updated estimates for VNO's FFO and AFFO, reflecting adjustments due to faster leasing at PENN 2 and revised capitalized interest [12]. Valuation Trends - The report notes that VNO's premium versus the REIT sector is approaching historical average levels, indicating potential valuation normalization [6]. - The updated price target reflects a change in the Q5-Q8 target AFFO multiple to 27.0x, up from 26.2x, based on recent leasing strength and market movements [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating on Leslie's Inc. (LESL) with a 12-month price target of $3 based on EV/EBITDA multiples of 8.0x/9.0x/10.0x for downside/base/upside cases [40]. Core Insights - Memorial Day weekend demand for pools was in line with the previous year, and similar sales are expected for the summer, with chemical sales likely to remain stable but discretionary sales anticipated to decline [1][3]. - Google search trends indicate an increase in interest for pool-related topics in key states, suggesting a potential uptick in demand, although Leslie's Pool Supplies experienced a decline in search interest [19][24]. - Approximately 75% of surveyed retailers do not view Leslie's or Walmart as strong competitors in the pool supply market [3][16]. Summary by Sections Survey Results - A survey of 27 independent specialty pool retailers indicated that demand during Memorial Day 2025 was consistent with 2024, with no expectations for increased demand for chemicals or discretionary items [2][3]. - Retailers expressed that prices for pool supplies are not expected to be lower than the previous year [10]. Google Search Trends - Google search interest for "pool" in April and May 2025 remained stable compared to 2024, with increases noted against 2023 and pre-pandemic levels [24]. - Searches for Leslie's Pool Supplies showed a decline in interest compared to previous years, indicating potential challenges for the company [24][31]. Market Competitiveness - The majority of retailers surveyed do not consider Leslie's or Walmart as significant competitors, with 22% affirming Leslie's as a competitor and 5% for Walmart [3][16]. - Retailers are cautious about the competitive landscape, with many not expecting significant changes in market dynamics [3].

28 May 2025 | 5:19PM BST Hennes & Mauritz (HMb.ST) Updating 2Q/FY25 earnings for recent FX trends and related opex gearing; PT remains SKr125, Sell HMb.ST 12m Price Target: Skr125.00 Price: Skr139.15 Downside: 10.2% Ahead of the H&M May 2Q-end, we have updated our earnings for FX, reflecting a stronger Swedish Krona and the related adverse opex gearing (opex FX exposure c.75% of revenue exposure). For 2Q25E, we have reduced revenue growth to -4.3% (from -2.6%) driven by an FX impact of -5.2% (from -3.6%) an ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on InPost with a price target of EUR 19.5, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% [1]. Core Insights - InPost's share price has decreased by 12% year-to-date and 8% following the 1Q25 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. The management's cautious outlook on parcel volumes in Poland is attributed to weaker consumer sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties [1][15]. - Despite the cautious tone, there are indications of potential volume upside as Allegro anticipates a slight acceleration in GMV growth in 2Q, and April retail sales showed marked improvement compared to 1Q25 [1][15]. - Operationally, InPost has demonstrated strong execution, with a 10% year-over-year increase in volumes in Poland and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 47.9% [2][16]. Financial Performance - InPost's revenue forecast for 2025 is PLN 14,893.6 million, with an expected EBITA of PLN 2,688.2 million and EPS of PLN 3.22 [4][12]. - The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8x for the next 12 months, which is about a 20% discount compared to its three-year average [3][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin in the Eurozone improved to 13.5%, driven by a 29% year-over-year increase in B2C volumes and a 70 percentage point surge in APM usage [2][16]. Market Dynamics - InPost's performance in Poland remains resilient, with a 10% volume growth year-over-year, supported by an 18% increase in SME volumes [2][16]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a shift towards B2C, with volumes growing by 11% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][16]. - The integration of Yodel is a key focus for InPost in the UK, with early results showing a pro forma volume increase of 4x year-over-year and significant improvements in cost-to-serve [2][16]. Strategic Initiatives - InPost is well-positioned to unlock synergies from the Yodel integration and expand its APM reach in underserved rural areas, which is expected to enhance both volumes and margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond [15][16]. - The company is deepening its cross-border and merchant ecosystem, with cross-border sales now accounting for 20% of Eurozone volume [16][17]. Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates that real retail sales in Poland grew by 6.4% in April, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment [18][21]. - E-commerce sales in Poland also showed growth, with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in April, driven by order growth and an increase in average order value [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Kingfisher with a price target (PT) of 305p [1][3][33] Core Insights - Kingfisher experienced a positive start to the year, particularly in the UK and France, with 1Q26 like-for-like (LFL) sales increasing by 1.8%, and 2.7% when excluding a negative calendar impact [2][3] - The UK & Ireland reported a strong LFL sales growth of 5.9%, driven by B&Q's 7.9% and Screwfix's 2.9% growth, while France and Poland faced declines of 3.2% [2][3] - The report highlights that some of the growth in the UK during 1Q may have been pulled forward from 2Q, and management remains cautious with unchanged earnings guidance [1][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance for FY26 is set between £480 million and £540 million, with an updated FY26E PBT forecast of £524 million [3][5] - Online sales grew by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 20% to group sales, and trade penetration, including Screwfix, increased to 29% from 26% in 1Q25 [2][3] - The report projects total revenue for FY26E at £12,661.7 million, with a slight decline from the previous year, but anticipates a growth of 3.0% in FY27E [5][16] Regional Performance - In the UK, sales are expected to grow from £6,456 million in FY25 to £6,689.9 million in FY26E, reflecting a growth rate of 3.6% [29] - France's sales are projected to decline from £3,883 million in FY25 to £3,746.3 million in FY26E, indicating a challenging market environment [31] - The Polish market is experiencing a decline, with LFL sales down by 3.2%, reflecting geopolitical impacts on the DIY market [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-derived price target of 305p, equating to approximately 12x FY27E P/E [33][34] - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E of 13.7 for FY26E and a free cash flow yield of 8.5% [5][11] - The report notes a dividend yield of 4.2% for FY26E, with a consistent dividend payout ratio [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%, with a median of 1.8%, after adjustments for weather and leap years [5]. - The top-down approach indicates a significant increase in total power demand, highlighting a divergence from the bottom-up approach due to the sample size of utilities covered [9]. Summary by Sections Bottom-Up Analysis - The bottom-up approach utilized earnings reports from various US power utilities, adjusting for weather and leap-year effects to derive a growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - Utilities such as Xcel Energy (XEL) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) reported demand growth in line with their annual expectations, with XEL maintaining a 3% growth forecast for retail sales in 2025 [9]. Top-Down Analysis - The top-down analysis, based on EIA data, shows a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - The report notes that the differences between the two approaches may stem from the sample of utilities representing only 25-30% of overall US power sales, as well as varying weather adjustment methodologies [9]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regional variations in demand can be significant, and the national weather-adjustment methodology may overestimate demand during extreme weather events [9]. - Large load customers are expected to continue driving demand, while residential demand is anticipated to grow due to customer increases and higher usage [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Big Yellow (BYG.L) with a 12-month price target of 1,110p, implying a 12.5% upside from the current price of 987p [1][33]. Core Insights - Revenue growth is expected to decelerate due to a subdued demand environment, with occupancy forecasted to remain stable at around 80.3% to 81% for FY26E and FY27E [2][3]. - The company's balance sheet is strong, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1x and a loan-to-value ratio of 12.8%, the lowest in the sector [3][4]. - Valuation appears fair, trading at a 6.3% earnings yield, above its long-term average of 4.6%, and at a 31% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) [4][28]. Revenue and Occupancy - Revenue growth is projected to slow, with occupancy rates expected to stabilize at 80.3% in FY26E and 81% in FY27E, compared to 79.1% in FY24/25 [2][36]. - The average rent achieved has declined to 3.2% year-on-year since its peak of 8.6% in FY23 [20][36]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS forecasts for FY26E to FY28E have been updated with a change of -2% for FY26E and a 0% change for FY27E [1][32]. - The forecasted total revenue for FY26E is £183.2 million, with a projected EBITDA of £133.9 million [14][36]. Development Pipeline - Big Yellow has a development pipeline of 14 sites, with 9 currently under construction, expected to generate a net operating income (NOI) of £36.6 million, yielding 8.7% [3][36]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that Big Yellow's valuation reflects both upside and downside risks, with a current earnings yield of 6.3% and a significant discount to NTA [4][28]. - The forecasted dividend yield is expected to increase from 4.2% in FY25 to 5.2% by FY28 [11][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to HP Inc. (HPQ) with a 12-month target price of $27, indicating a downside potential of 4.7% from the current price of $28.34 [11][15]. Core Insights - HPQ's F2Q25 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 missed Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates of $0.82 and consensus of $0.80, while revenue of $13.2 billion was largely in line with estimates [2][3]. - The company lowered its guidance for F2025 EPS to $3.00-$3.30 from a previous range of $3.45-$3.75, reflecting moderated demand and the impact of tariffs [2][7]. - The outlook for the PC industry has been adjusted to low single-digit percentage (LSD%) unit growth year-over-year, down from mid-single-digit percentage (MSD%) growth previously expected [7][13]. Financial Performance - HPQ's F2Q25 revenue of $13,220 million was slightly below GS estimates of $13,241 million but above consensus of $13,132 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% [8][10]. - The Personal Systems Group revenue was $9,024 million, exceeding GS estimates, with a 6% year-over-year increase in units [5][10]. - Printing revenue was $4,181 million, which fell short of GS estimates and consensus, with total units up 1% [5][10]. Margin Analysis - The non-GAAP operating income for F2Q25 was $961 million, missing GS estimates of $1,076 million, with a margin of 7.3% [9][10]. - Personal Systems Group EBIT margins were reported at 4.5%, significantly below the GS estimate of 5.7% [9][10]. - Printing EBIT margins improved to 19.5%, slightly above GS estimates of 19.0% [9][10]. Future Guidance - For F3Q25, HPQ provided guidance for GAAP diluted EPS of $0.57-$0.69 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.68-$0.80, which is below the consensus estimate of $0.90 [6][11]. - The company anticipates free cash flow for F2025 to be in the range of $2.6-$3.0 billion, down from a previous estimate of $3.2-$3.6 billion [2][7]. Investment Thesis - The report suggests that HPQ's growth may be impacted by softer near-term demand for PCs and printing due to macroeconomic factors and excess channel inventory [13]. - However, HPQ's focus on higher-end PCs and initiatives in the printing segment, such as ink subscription services, may provide a competitive edge [13][14].