Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][34][38]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading domestic sportswear brand focusing on the running segment, leveraging continuous R&D investments to achieve technological advancements in footwear and apparel, thereby establishing high competitive barriers. The company is also enhancing brand competitiveness through differentiated channel strategies and effective marketing, indicating significant long-term growth potential [6][34][38]. - The financial forecasts predict the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.64 billion, 13.95 billion, and 15.99 billion RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.73%, 10.36%, and 14.65% [5][34][41]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for FY2023 is projected at 14.35 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.94%. For FY2024, revenue is expected to reach 14.86 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 3.61%. The forecast for FY2025 and FY2026 is 15.41 billion and 16.94 billion RMB, with growth rates of 3.69% and 9.91%, respectively [5][25][34]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 42.20% in FY2023 to 44.27% in FY2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][25][34]. Market and Industry Insights - The running culture in China is growing, with a significant increase in marathon events and participants, which is expected to drive demand for running-related products. The number of certified marathon events in 2023 reached 699, nearing pre-pandemic levels, highlighting a robust recovery in the running community [136][139]. - The domestic sportswear market is witnessing a shift towards leading national brands, with the market share of top brands like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep increasing significantly. The market concentration is expected to continue as consumer preferences evolve towards domestic brands [139][140]. Company Strategy and Development - The company has been focusing on expanding its online channels, which have shown a growth rate exceeding 20% year-on-year, contributing to over 30% of the main brand's revenue. This shift is expected to become a new growth driver for the company [21][22]. - The company actively sponsors marathon events and has signed multiple sports celebrities as brand ambassadors, reinforcing its professional image in the running segment and enhancing brand recognition among consumers [22][34]. Competitive Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in the running footwear market, with its main brand catering to both mass and elite consumer segments. The introduction of specialized brands like Saucony and Merrell targets professional runners and outdoor enthusiasts, further diversifying its market reach [34][126]. - The report highlights that the company's average PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 11.4X, which is lower than the industry average of 14.0X, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to its peers [34][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, citing the sustained prosperity of refined oil transportation and potential cyclical dividends for shareholders [2][4][8]. Core Views - The company, China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, is a leader in refined oil transportation in the Far East, with a diversified business model that includes oil, chemical, and gas transportation. It has the largest MR refined oil fleet in the region and ranks second in domestic crude oil transportation [2][4][8]. - The report highlights that supply constraints are expected to support the continued prosperity of refined oil transportation, driven by geopolitical factors and an aging fleet that limits supply growth [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation has transitioned from inland river oil transportation to maritime oil transportation since 2007 and has become a subsidiary of China Merchants Group, which provides strong backing [24][40]. - The company operates a diversified business model focusing on liquid cargo transportation, including crude oil, refined oil, chemicals, and gas, enhancing its core competitiveness and risk resilience [40][41]. Market Conditions - The refined oil transportation market is experiencing sustained demand due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Red Sea situation, which has increased transportation times and costs, thereby boosting demand for shipping capacity [92][94]. - The report anticipates that the demand for refined oil transportation will continue to grow, supported by increased oil demand and refining capacity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [81][85]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.102 billion, 2.193 billion, and 2.245 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.00%, 4.31%, and 2.40% [4][8]. - The report indicates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will correspond to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.13, 6.83, and 6.67 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the aging fleet poses a significant challenge to supply growth, with a substantial portion of the fleet being over 15 years old, which is expected to limit new supply from replacing older vessels [76][77]. - The global refining capacity is shifting eastward, which is expected to benefit long-distance maritime transportation demand, as longer shipping routes will be required [81][85]. Investment Logic - The company is well-positioned to benefit from cyclical dividends as the refined oil transportation market remains robust. The report suggests that the company could potentially distribute dividends of around 1 billion RMB annually, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 6% [8][55].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongke Environmental [4][10]. Core Viewpoints - Zhongke Environmental, a waste incineration power generation company under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% over the next five years, reflecting confidence in its future development and shareholder returns [4][13]. - The company is actively expanding its heating services alongside its main waste incineration power generation business, which is expected to contribute to sustained profitability growth [6][36]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with 10,500 tons/day of operational waste incineration capacity and an additional 5,450 tons/day under construction, primarily located in various provinces across China [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Zhongke Environmental - Zhongke Environmental was established in 2012 and completed its IPO in 2022. The largest shareholder is Zhongke Industrial Group, holding 57.75% of the shares, with the actual controller being the Chinese Academy of Sciences [4][24]. 2. Commitment to Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a stock incentive plan granting 28.816 million restricted shares at a price of 2.41 yuan/share, with performance targets set for net profit growth of 15%, 25%, and 40% from 2023 levels over the next three years [5][31]. - A five-year dividend commitment was made, ensuring a minimum cash dividend payout of 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2028 [5][13]. 3. Market Expansion and Growth Potential - The company achieved a heating volume of 1.12 million tons in 2023, positioning it among the industry leaders. The potential for heating projects is significant, with agreements signed for an additional annual heating volume of over 750,000 tons [6][41]. - The profitability from heating services is projected to be higher than from power generation, with estimates indicating a profit increase of 210-230 yuan per ton of waste incinerated for heating compared to electricity generation [36][48]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.38 billion, 1.86 billion, and 1.97 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 331 million, 379 million, and 459 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.8%, 14.6%, and 21.1% respectively [7][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 24, 21, and 17 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation considering future growth potential [10][49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this context [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading private photovoltaic enterprise, focusing on clean energy supply and services. It has developed an integrated solution capability for photovoltaic projects, including development, construction, operation, and asset trading [4][23]. - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 4.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.72%. The revenue breakdown shows that photovoltaic power station development and operation accounted for 74.4%, EPC services for 6.6%, and household photovoltaic station development for 14.8% [5][25]. - The company has a significant amount of unrecovered subsidies, approximately 6 billion yuan, which constitutes about 37% of its net assets. This presents a potential opportunity for value release if these subsidies are recovered [6][72]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2011 and listed in 2020, is backed by its major shareholder, Jinko Group, which holds a 23.9% stake as of September 2024. It specializes in photovoltaic power station operation and development [4][23]. 2. Business Structure and Performance - The company has optimized its asset structure, with a focus on cash flow improvement. The transition from subsidy-dependent projects to more market-driven projects is expected to enhance cash generation capabilities [5][45]. - The company has engaged in asset trading since 2018, with significant sales in 2020-2023, indicating a strategic shift towards asset monetization [5][25]. 3. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company achieved a total profit of 469 million yuan, with the sale of power stations contributing approximately 375 million yuan, accounting for 51.7% of the adjusted profit total [5][35]. - The report forecasts net profits of 516 million, 738 million, and 747 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34.58%, 43.09%, and 1.22% respectively [6][79]. 4. Subsidy and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has maintained a stable scale of new electricity subsidies between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023. The proportion of subsidies in total revenue has decreased from 56.5% in 2021 to 44.3% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more sustainable revenue sources [5][67]. - The unrecovered subsidy amount is significant, and if recovered, it could provide a substantial boost to the company's stock price [6][72]. 5. Market Position and Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 21, 15, and 15 times, respectively. Comparatively, similar companies in the photovoltaic sector have an average P/E of 16 times for 2024 [6][79]. - The report emphasizes that as the quality of installed assets improves and the pace of station construction and transfer accelerates, the company's performance and stock price are expected to show resilience [6][79].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media and internet industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming ByteDance Volcano Engine Winter FORCE Conference scheduled for December 18-19 in Shanghai is expected to catalyze industry development, particularly in AI and AR applications. The conference will feature over 10 thematic forums and a 2000 square meter immersive exhibition area showcasing the full upgrade of the Doubao model family products. The rapid advancement of ByteDance's AI ecosystem, including applications like Doubao and Coze, is anticipated to create a new industrial ecosystem centered around ByteDance AI [1][2] - The release of major films such as "Lion Boy 2" and the scheduling of key films for the Spring Festival are expected to enhance box office expectations, reinforcing the cyclical nature of the film sector and the first-release economy [1] Industry Performance - In the A-share market from December 9 to December 13, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.73%, the CSI 300 by 1.01%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.4%. The media sector ranked third among all industries with a performance increase of 4.11% [22][24] - The digital media, film and television, and advertising sectors showed strong performance, while television broadcasting, gaming, and publishing sectors lagged behind [22][24] AI and Application Development - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI as a production tool, which is expected to continue optimizing industrial production chains and enhancing product efficiency and forms. Companies that embrace new technologies and possess data, user, and application advantages are recommended for investment [2][12] - There were nine AI investment events reported from December 9 to December 14, covering various subfields such as technology research and content technology, with investment amounts ranging from millions to billions of RMB [47][48] Film and Television Sector - The film "Nezha: The Devil Child Comes to the World" is officially scheduled for release on the first day of the Lunar New Year 2025, with expectations for box office recovery driven by quality supply and increased holiday demand. Attention is recommended for key film producers and cinema/ticketing companies for the 2025 Spring Festival [7] - The report highlights the tax incentives for cultural enterprises transitioning to corporate status, which may benefit quality publishing companies exploring new business models in education and other sectors [8] Gaming Sector - The report suggests focusing on the new game product cycle, emphasizing the importance of testing and launch timings for key new games, which could lead to a revaluation of related listed companies [3] - The domestic iOS mobile game sales rankings from December 9 to December 13 show "Honor of Kings" maintaining its top position, with "Dungeon & Fighter" and "Endless Winter" performing well [49][52] Company Announcements - The report mentions that Zhangyue Technology has announced a "Quality Improvement and Return" action plan aimed at enhancing operational quality and shareholder returns, focusing on digital reading and derivative businesses [12][43]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission issued an action plan to promote the innovation and development of scientific instruments and research reagents from 2025 to 2027, focusing on strengthening key core technology breakthroughs and cultivating leading enterprises in the industry [15][16][20]. - The scientific instruments industry is in its early growth stage, with significant potential for domestic substitution due to the current reliance on imports, which accounted for approximately 70.6% from 2016 to 2019 [28][41]. - The market size of the scientific instruments industry in China reached 354.91 billion yuan in 2023, with R&D expenditure amounting to 332.78 billion yuan [40][41]. Group 2 - The overall valuation of the five major technology growth industries on the Beijing Stock Exchange has declined, with the electronic equipment industry’s PE TTM median dropping from 50.5X to 44.3X [56][57]. - The median market capitalization of the electronic equipment industry decreased from 23.66 billion yuan to 21.39 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in market value [57]. - The automotive industry’s PE TTM median fell from 27.0X to 24.8X, with a corresponding decrease in market capitalization from 19.09 billion yuan to 17.72 billion yuan [56]. Group 3 - Yisheng Precision signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Zhejiang Konghui Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. regarding components for automotive air suspension [4][13]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies within the scientific instruments sector, including Aweit (precision mechanical components), Zhongke Meiling (low-temperature refrigeration equipment), and New芝生物 (ultrasonic equipment and related scientific instruments) [48]. - The report identifies three major trends in the scientific instruments industry: accelerated industry clearing, breakthroughs in key technologies leading to polarization in mid-to-high-end instruments, and the increasing importance of artificial intelligence in enhancing product capabilities [41][43].

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 12 月 16 日 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 能繁增幅放缓，关注猪价旺季表现 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——农林牧渔行业周报（20241209-20241215） 投资要点： 生猪：能繁增幅放缓，旺季猪价或有回暖。 11 月能繁增幅放缓，1）畜牧业协会 11 月规模猪场能繁母猪环比增 1%（前值 0.9%）， 自 24 年 2 月以来累计增长已达 13%；2）涌益 11 月能繁环比+0.34%（前值 0.56%）。 猪价触底回暖，12 月 15 日涌益最新生猪价格为 15.95 元/kg，冬至节前叠加腌腊高 峰、消费回暖，但供给同步集中出栏，预计供给总体充裕情况下猪价上涨高度或有 限。弱现实叠加弱预期影响，期货 2503 合约本周一度跌破 13000 元关口。若年底 现货及仔猪价格出现双低，产能或持续震荡，明年猪价悲观预期或存在修复机会。 联系人 摒弃周期思维、回归财 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The central economic work conference has indicated a more proactive stance on fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting an increase in fiscal deficit rates and the issuance of long-term special bonds, alongside a moderately loose monetary policy [1][38] - The report emphasizes that the current market's pricing framework is still limited to traditional economic cycles, and it is essential to adapt to a valuation-first approach before earnings changes [1][3] Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - The building materials index rose by 1.3% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4% [30] - Key stocks with significant gains included Jingxue Energy (+44.0%), Shandong Fiberglass (+31.8%), and Conch New Materials (+27.5%) [30] Data Tracking - **Cement**: The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 424.0 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.0 CNY/ton from the previous month, but an increase of 42.8 CNY/ton year-on-year [43] - **Float Glass**: The average price of 5mm float glass is 1536.5 CNY/ton, down 8.0 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 607.3 CNY/ton year-on-year [64] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The average price for 2.0mm coated glass is 11.8 CNY/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 5.7 CNY/sqm year-on-year [74] - **Glass Fiber**: The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4680.0 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 640.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [83] - **Carbon Fiber**: The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 CNY/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 2.0 CNY/kg year-on-year [93] Industry Dynamics - The central economic work conference aims to stabilize the real estate market and effectively prevent systemic risks, emphasizing the need for a new development model in real estate [37][38] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining liquidity and implementing a combination of policies to enhance overall policy effectiveness [38]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a bullish trend, with a significant increase in market capitalization and positive sentiment among investors. The total market capitalization reached $3.6 trillion, reflecting a slight increase from $3.59 trillion the previous week [36][41] - The launch of Google's new AI model, Gemini 2.0, has led to a surge in its stock price, indicating strong market interest in AI technologies [25][28] - The report highlights the entry of MicroStrategy into the Nasdaq 100 index, suggesting a growing recognition of cryptocurrency-related companies in mainstream markets [3][41] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The US tech stocks continued to rise, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 1.7% and outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [16][17] - Notable stock performances included Broadcom (+25%), Tesla (+12%), and Google (+9%) [17] 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently in the "greed" zone, with a fear and greed index of 78 as of December 13 [36] - The report notes that the cryptocurrency spot ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of $2.167 billion over five days, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The report suggests that the cryptocurrency market is entering a "golden age," with expectations of continuous growth in market capitalization due to favorable developments [3][41] 3. Important Events - Google's Gemini 2.0 was released, showcasing significant performance improvements over its predecessor, with capabilities in multimodal input and output [25][28] - The US Department of Energy has awarded contracts to six companies for low-enriched uranium procurement, aiming to boost domestic uranium production capabilities [29][32]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The integration of source, network, load, and storage in Henan is expected to boost demand for distribution network equipment. The Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan requiring the establishment of at least 1,010 integrated projects across various cities by 2027, aimed at reducing electricity prices and enhancing clean energy supply [2][16][18] - The State Grid has initiated multiple preliminary tenders for ultra-high voltage projects, indicating a potential increase in demand for direct current back-to-back projects. The projects include one AC ultra-high voltage and three DC back-to-back projects, with significant expected value in converter valve demand [4][22][25] Summary by Sections 1. Demand for Distribution Network Equipment in Henan - The plan outlines specific targets for the number of integrated projects in different categories of cities, with a total of no less than 1,010 projects by 2027. The goals include reducing electricity prices, promoting consumption, adjusting energy structure, expanding investment, and ensuring safety [16][17] - The integration model allows for significant savings on electricity costs, with users in Henan potentially saving 0.1145 yuan per kWh [18] 2. State Grid's Ultra-High Voltage Project Tenders - The State Grid has announced the sixth round of preliminary tenders for ultra-high voltage projects, including the construction of two new substations and the expansion of existing ones, which is expected to continuously release performance for related companies [22][25] - The three DC back-to-back projects are estimated to generate approximately 3 billion yuan in converter valve demand, indicating a positive long-term trend for direct current transmission [25] 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a detailed valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, providing earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [27][28][29]