行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 01 日 -15% -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 金属与材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:黄金重 回 升 势 ，关 注权 益 板块 配 置机 会 》 2025-05-24 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ，看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 3 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic metals sector is experiencing a continued destocking support, with copper and aluminum prices fluctuating at high levels. Copper prices are expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase due to low social inventory and positive economic data [4][12][16] - Precious metals are supported by strong safe-haven buying, with gold and silver prices showing upward trends. The market is reacting to reduced trade uncertainties, although concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices [5][24] - The small metals sector is witnessing price increases for tungsten products, driven by tight resources and market dynamics. However, demand from downstream sectors remains cautious, affecting overall market activity [6][55] Summary by Sections 1. Basic and Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with social inventory decreasing. The market is seeing a slight recovery in demand as prices adjust [12][13] - Aluminum: External and domestic aluminum prices have decreased, but spot prices have slightly increased due to low inventory levels and positive consumer data [16][20] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, supported by safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties and economic concerns [24][25] 2. Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices for tungsten products are rising, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 169,500 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate reaching 248,000 CNY/ton [6][55] - Lithium: The lithium market remains weak, with prices stable but demand sluggish [36][37] - Cobalt: Cobalt prices are stable, but market activity is low due to weak demand and high prices [39][40] - Tin: Tin prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply from resumed mining operations [48][49] - Molybdenum: The molybdenum market is strong, with prices increasing due to tight supply and active demand [60][61]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a month-on-month increase, but the year-on-year decline expanded. The sales amount reached 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, with the decline widening by 2.7 percentage points compared to April [11][12] - The new housing market continues to face pressure with fluctuating growth rates, despite a month-on-month recovery in sales. The recent interest rate cuts may take time to show their effects, and there is a possibility of continued weakness in year-on-year growth [11][12] - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned enterprises in sales performance, with significant differences observed among different types of companies. Central enterprises showed a decline of 7.0%, while private enterprises faced a much larger decline of 29.5% [12][13] Summary by Sections Sales Performance Overview - In May 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 294.58 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%. Cumulative sales from January to May reached 1,312.75 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [11] - The sales performance varied significantly among different tiers of companies, with the top 10 companies experiencing a year-on-year change of -11.1%, while those ranked 11-30 saw a 12.3% increase [12] Market Dynamics - The new housing market recorded a transaction area of 2.99 million square meters in the last week of May, with a year-on-year decline of 15.96%. However, there was a slight improvement compared to the previous month [20] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with a transaction area of 1.91 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises that may benefit from debt restructuring and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages. It also highlights the potential of regional companies and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction conditions [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57 CNY, based on a 30x P/E for 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company has been a leader in lithium battery cathode materials for over 20 years, particularly in cobalt lithium, with a global market share of approximately 47% in 2024 [1][34]. - The company is expanding its product offerings to include ternary and iron-lithium cathode materials, which are gaining market traction due to their competitive advantages [1][2]. - New materials such as NL cathode materials and lithium sulfide solid electrolytes are being actively developed, positioning the company for leadership in next-generation battery technologies [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new energy battery materials, with key products including high-voltage cobalt lithium, high-voltage ternary materials, and iron-lithium [12]. - Cobalt lithium is recognized for its superior performance and has maintained a leading market position due to its high voltage and energy density, making it suitable for high-end consumer electronics [13][27]. Product Development - The cobalt lithium segment is expected to benefit from stable demand growth, driven by the increasing average capacity of consumer electronics [2]. - Ternary materials are gaining traction in applications such as drones, thanks to their high power and voltage advantages [2][41]. - The NL materials are poised for rapid adoption in consumer electronics and drones once downstream testing is completed [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit from 800 million CNY in 2025 to 1.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 62%, 18%, and 26% respectively [5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.30 billion CNY, with a net profit of 494 million CNY, indicating a slight decline compared to the previous year [24]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant position in the cobalt lithium market, with a sales volume of 46,184 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.52% [34]. - The ternary materials segment also saw a significant increase in sales, driven by the demand from the new energy vehicle sector [24][41]. Future Outlook - The global cobalt lithium market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 9.1% from 2024 to 2032, driven by high-end consumer electronics and portable energy storage systems [32]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth through its advanced technology and established customer relationships [5][34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57 CNY, based on a 30x P/E for 2025 [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a strong position in the lithium battery cathode materials market, particularly as a global leader in lithium cobalt oxide, with a market share of approximately 47% in 2024 [1][34]. - The company is expected to benefit from stable demand for lithium cobalt oxide, optimization of customer structure for ternary materials, and an increase in market share for lithium iron phosphate [5]. - New product developments, including NL cathode materials and sulfide electrolytes, are anticipated to open new growth avenues for the company [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in lithium battery cathode materials and is recognized as a global leader in lithium cobalt oxide [1]. - In 2024, the company shipped 46,200 tons of lithium cobalt oxide, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.52% [24][34]. Product Segments - **Lithium Cobalt Oxide**: The company maintains a leading position with high voltage products that are favored in the consumer electronics sector [1][34]. - **Ternary Materials**: The company has developed high voltage and high power ternary materials, which are gaining traction in applications such as drones [2][41]. - **NL Materials**: These materials are expected to meet the rising demands for high voltage, high energy density, and high cycle life in battery applications [3]. - **Lithium Sulfide**: The company is leveraging its technological expertise to produce lithium sulfide with both performance and cost advantages [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 800 million CNY, 945 million CNY, and 1.19 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62%, 18%, and 26% [5]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.30 billion CNY, with a decline of 23.19% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [24]. Market Dynamics - The global demand for lithium cobalt oxide is expected to grow steadily, driven by the increasing average capacity of consumer electronics [2]. - The company has established stable partnerships with leading global battery manufacturers, which supports its sales growth in lithium cobalt oxide [2].

Market Dynamics - Zhongyin Zhongwaiyun Warehousing Logistics REITs has been approved as of May 30, 2025[1] - Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Manufacturing Industry Park REITs expansion has also been approved on May 30, 2025[1] Market Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.03% from May 26 to May 30, 2025[2] - The property REITs index decreased by 0.25%, while the operating rights REITs index rose by 0.46% during the same period[2] - REITs total index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.08 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 0.01 percentage points[2] Liquidity - Total trading volume for REITs was 4.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.7% week-on-week[3] - The largest trading volume among REIT types was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 25.2% of total trading volume[3] - The average trading volume for property and operating rights REITs was 2.81 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, respectively, both down approximately 23.4%[3] Risk Factors - Future operational conditions of REITs' underlying assets are uncertain[3] - Cash flow projections in the fundraising prospectus may not accurately reflect actual performance[3] - The pace of fundraising issuance may fall short of expectations[3]

Industry Dynamics - The approval of Zhongyin Zhongwaiyun Warehousing and Logistics REITs was announced on May 30, 2025, along with the approval of Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Manufacturing Industrial Park REITs expansion [1][7]. Primary Market - As of May 30, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion, with a total of 66 REITs issued [8]. Market Performance - During the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.03%, while the property REITs index decreased by 0.25%, and the operating rights REITs index rose by 0.46%. The REITs total index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.08 percentage points [2][16]. Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs for the week was 476 million, a decrease of 23.7% from the previous week. The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 281 million and 195 million, respectively, also showing declines of 23.9% and 23.4% [3][36]. Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs index and various indices over the past 20 days show a positive correlation with the CSI 300 index (0.534) and a negative correlation with the CSI all bond index (-0.144) [29].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The nuclear power sector is experiencing significant growth, with the approval of 10 new nuclear power units in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of such approvals in China [2][13] - In the first four months of 2025, nuclear power investment reached 36.256 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.64%, significantly outpacing the 1.6% growth in overall power investment [2][13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from the rising nuclear power investment, with key companies like China Nuclear Engineering, Libat, and Zhongyan Dadi identified as potential beneficiaries [2][18] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Sector - The nuclear power sector's investment is on the rise, with a total of 102 operational, under-construction, and approved units, totaling an installed capacity of 113 million kW [13] - China Nuclear Engineering is the leading company in nuclear power construction, with 32 units under construction and a total of 96 units built by the end of 2024 [18] - Libat has secured contracts for significant nuclear projects, indicating strong growth potential in the nuclear sector [18] - Zhongyan Dadi is expected to achieve breakthroughs in nuclear power projects, having recently signed strategic cooperation agreements [20] Cement and Construction Materials - Cement shipment rates have increased to 47.8%, up 1.4 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a recovery in construction activity [3][22] - The asphalt plant operating rate is at 27.7%, down 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight decline in activity [22] - The construction sector is seeing a steady increase in new contracts, particularly for major state-owned enterprises like China Construction and China Nuclear Engineering [22][27] Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.24% in the week of May 26-30, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.89 percentage points [4][28] - Key sectors such as architectural design, landscaping, and construction decoration saw significant gains, with leading stocks like Hopu and Hanjia Design showing substantial increases [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improved construction activity, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors [35] - Emphasize the importance of regional opportunities in high-demand areas such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu [35] - Highlight the potential of companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Jiaokao, and Anhui Construction in the construction sector [35] - Recommend investments in nuclear power companies like Libat and China Nuclear Engineering due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in performance for 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 416.26 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1][4] - The automotive segment revenue is expected to be 3.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.87% year-on-year, with a significant drop in sales volume by 16.2% [2] - The company is focusing on new sectors such as energy storage and humanoid robots while maintaining its core competency in aluminum alloy lightweight technology [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 44.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.16 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45 yuan, reflecting a decline of 41.56% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.46 billion yuan, down 8.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 1.18 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 9.44% [4][11] Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its internal operational management capabilities and expanding its production capacity, with a focus on cost optimization through technological innovation [3] - It has established a production network across China, North America, and Southeast Asia, aiming for a "China + North America + Southeast Asia" triangular capacity network [3] - The company is implementing a centralized procurement and strategic cooperation model with key suppliers to manage costs effectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in performance for 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, down 8.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 416.26 million yuan, down 41.71% year-on-year [1][4] - The automotive segment revenue is expected to be 3.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.87% year-on-year, with a significant drop in sales volume by 16.2% [2] - The company is focusing on new growth areas such as energy storage and humanoid robots while leveraging its core aluminum alloy lightweight technology [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 44.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.16 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 10.46 billion yuan, down 8.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, down 39.15% year-on-year [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.45 yuan, a decrease of 41.56% year-on-year [1] Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its internal operational management capabilities and expanding its production capacity, with a focus on cost optimization through technological innovation [3] - It has established a production network across China, North America, and Southeast Asia, aiming to provide integrated lightweight solutions to global customers [3] - The company is implementing a "zero inventory" management model and optimizing supply chain collaboration to improve inventory turnover rates [3]