Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The traditional core business saw a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 16% [2] - The company is focusing on product development, technological innovation, and IP empowerment to enhance its competitive edge [2] - The office direct sales segment reported a revenue of 9.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [3] - The company is increasing its investment in IP products, with revenue from its lifestyle brand reaching 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.85% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.38 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.74 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 17X, and 15X [5] - The company’s gross margin for writing tools was 44.12%, for student stationery was 35.57%, and for office stationery was 26.55% [1] Business Strategy - The company is committed to long-termism and is enhancing its product offerings, including classic bestsellers and innovative products that resonate emotionally with consumers [2] - The focus on digital transformation and customer expansion is expected to improve profitability in the future [3] - The company plans to continue expanding its retail presence, with over 870 stores nationwide [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year [1] - Despite weak price performance of main products, the increase in sales volume has contributed to revenue growth. The average price of valine was 14 yuan/kg, down 4.5% year-on-year, while tryptophan and arginine saw price declines of 29% and 25% respectively [2] - The company is optimizing product resource allocation and enhancing sustainable profitability through increased R&D investment in new products, including biobased materials [2][3] - The establishment of an AI digital laboratory aims to integrate AI technology into synthetic biology and company management, enhancing operational efficiency [3] - The company plans to issue overseas shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its globalization strategy and improve capital structure [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects net profits of 230 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 360 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjustments made due to declining prices of some main products [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.16 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 44.98% [4] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 495.79 million yuan, with a P/E ratio of 42.63 [4][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is advancing projects in biobased materials and has initiated technical upgrades to existing production facilities to allow flexible production of various products [2] - The R&D expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was 110 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.58% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 448 million yuan (up 44.40% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 101 million yuan (up 98.11% year-on-year) [1] - The growth in revenue and net profit is attributed to the surge in testing demand in the AI sector, increased penetration of smart driving, recovery in consumer electronics, and the acceleration of domestic substitution driving local testing demand [1][2] - The company has optimized its business structure, with high-end business accounting for 75% of Q3 revenue, leading to an increase in overall gross margin to 44.59% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.083 billion yuan (up 46.22% year-on-year) and a net profit of 202 million yuan (up 226.41% year-on-year) [1] - The company has increased its capital expenditure to approximately 1.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, driven by strong customer demand, particularly in computing power and automotive electronics [2] - The company expects to maintain high capacity utilization in Q4 2025, supported by the operational efficiency of its four testing bases [2] Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 1.56 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.69 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The net profit forecast for the same period has also been revised, with expected net profits of 289 million yuan, 409 million yuan, and 568 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.94 yuan in 2025 to 3.81 yuan in 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's operating performance is stable with slight profit growth, as evidenced by a total profit of 1.777 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.69% [1] - The potential for profit elasticity is significant if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, which could reduce interest expenses by nearly 500 million yuan if the dollar interest rate decreases by 1 percentage point [3] - The report adjusts profit forecasts downward due to increased tariffs affecting container production and export prices, with revised net profit estimates of 1.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 19.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.54%, while gross profit was 3.598 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.11% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 18.39%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.391 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.72% [1] - The company’s total liabilities amounted to 96.647 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.41% [5] Industry Insights - The container manufacturing industry remains relatively prosperous, although production in China decreased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with export prices also declining by 4.38% [2] - The report indicates that the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on multiple countries may impact import and export activities, thereby affecting container demand [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The 2026 allocation plan for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) has been released, indicating a continued reduction in production and usage quotas for HCFCs and HFCs [10][11] - The total production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is set at 151,416 tons, with a usage quota of 79,724 tons, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous years [2][12] - The room air conditioning sector will see a 70% reduction in usage quotas, while the commercial refrigeration sector will have a 67.5% reduction, consistent with 2025 [2][11] - The new quota scheme is expected to maintain a tight balance in the industry, with a projected increase in demand for R32 to compensate for reductions in R22 [21][22] Summary by Sections HCFCs Production and Usage Quotas - The production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is 151,416 tons, with a usage quota also at 79,724 tons, representing a reduction of 71.5% and 76.1% from baseline values respectively [11][12] - Specific reductions include HCFC-22 with a production quota of 146,068 tons, down by 3,000 tons from 2025 [12] HFCs Allocation and Adjustments - The allocation plan includes an increase of 3,000 tons for HFC-245fa and 50 tons for HFC-41 based on the demand for alternatives to HCFCs [3][15] - The maximum adjustment for any HFC's annual quota is capped at 30% of the allocated amount [15][16] Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report indicates that the market for three generations of refrigerants remains tight, with companies likely to balance their adjustments across different refrigerant types rather than focusing on a single type [21][22] - Price increases for refrigerants have been significant, with R32 rising by 262% from early 2024 to current prices [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.2 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 122% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters reached 11.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in photovoltaic glass production, driven by strong demand and inventory reduction in the industry [2]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.3%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 gross margin improved to 10.81%, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in photovoltaic glass and diversifying into energy-saving building glass and pharmaceutical glass, which is expected to support long-term growth [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 15.68 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 17.8%, and is expected to grow to 20.25 billion yuan by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.75 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 32.97% year-on-year, but a decline of 78.15% is expected in 2024 [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.63 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 0.14 yuan in 2024, and then recovering to 0.37 yuan in 2025 [5][11]. - The report indicates that the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.43 in 2023, increasing to 47.74 in 2024, and then stabilizing around 17.89 in 2025 [5][11].

Group 1: Aviation and Airports - The number of visa-free foreign visitors to China has increased by 52%, which is expected to drive the recovery of aviation and gradually restore airport profitability [2][5][7] - International passenger traffic is projected to grow by 25% in 2025, with a significant contribution from visa-free foreign visitors [16][18] - Major airports have seen passenger throughput recover to 2019 levels, with international passenger volume at Pudong Airport increasing by 23% year-on-year [28][26] Group 2: Shipping and Ports - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have increased by 15% and 28% respectively, benefiting regional shipping and port companies [3][44] - The new land-sea corridor in the western region has seen container volume grow by 70%, indicating strong demand for shipping services [3][44] - The global shipping demand is expected to grow slowly in 2026, with supply pressures potentially leading to lower freight rates [33] Group 3: Highways and Logistics - There is a potential for toll increases on existing highways, with some provinces already raising rates by over 30% [45][47] - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery, with price increases expected as competition stabilizes [58][60] - The logistics supply chain is expected to benefit from the monetization of traffic and new business growth, with significant revenue increases projected [61][64] Group 4: New Energy Vehicles and Smart Driving - Sales of electric heavy trucks have surged by 198%, with freight costs reduced by 16%, indicating a shift towards electrification in logistics [4][73] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, with significant implications for road transport efficiency and cost [80][79] - Companies in the smart driving sector are expected to see substantial growth, driven by technological advancements and increased market demand [81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu, with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in profitability, with a 2025 revenue of CNY 316.9 billion, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of CNY 1.633 billion, an 84% increase year-on-year, returning to 2021 levels [1] - The logistics and supply chain sectors have improved, with black metal supply chain volumes and revenues increasing, and energy and chemical supply chains seeing over 40% growth in volume [2] - Future profitability may benefit from potential commodity price increases, especially if the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, which could weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 459.04 billion, with a decline of 14.7% expected in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 to CNY 376.39 billion [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to CNY 2.116 billion from an earlier estimate of CNY 2.4 billion, with further projections of CNY 2.345 billion in 2026 and CNY 2.617 billion in 2027 [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be CNY 0.74 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.79 [4] Industry Overview - The report highlights the transportation and logistics industry, emphasizing the ongoing improvements in supply chain management and operational efficiency [5] - The logistics segment has seen a 17% increase in revenue, driven by strategic investments in international logistics capabilities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - Merck has entered into a $700 million collaboration with Blackstone Life Sciences to accelerate the global development of sacituzumab tirumotecan (sac-TMT) [1][2] - The funding will support part of the R&D costs for sac-TMT in 2026, with Blackstone entitled to a low to mid-single-digit royalty on net sales of sac-TMT in approved indications [2] - Merck is actively advancing sac-TMT's clinical development, with 15 global Phase III trials ongoing for six types of tumors, including lung cancer and breast cancer [3] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for the company are expected to be CNY 2.084 billion, CNY 2.876 billion, and CNY 4.663 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of CNY -622 million, CNY -130 million, and CNY 561 million [6]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 摊余买信用，增多少？持续多久？ 证券研究报告 信用策略随笔 本篇聚焦，存续摊余债基分布如何？哪些摊余债基买信用多？陆续进 入开放期的摊余债基有哪些？对应将带来多大规模的信用配置新增力量？ 一、摊余债基再迎开放潮 截至 2025 年三季度末，存续摊余债基份额合计约 1.43 万亿份，对应 总资产合计约 2.06 万亿元，净资产合计约 1.48 万亿元。 封闭期在 1-3 年的摊余债基，在 2025 年以来增持普信债的趋势更为 明显，其对普信债的仓位较 2024 年末提高 22pct，或也是伴随着封闭期结 束的再配置调仓。 3-5 年及 5 年期以上的摊余债基更多或系进入开放期的体量相对还不 大，对普信债的增持还未得到体现。 进一步地，结合 2025 年三季报数据看，有 25 只摊余债基对普信债的 持仓较 2024 年末增加了 50+亿元，其中 19 只摊余债基的封闭期在 3 年左 右及 3 年内。 三、信用预计将迎来多少增量配置资金？ 从当前摊余债基预计开放时间分布来看： 结合摊余债基发行时间点及封闭期分布： 2019-2020 年发行的封闭期在 3 年左右的摊余债基在发行后的首个开 ...