Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI models, particularly the release of xAI's Grok 4 series, which boasts enhanced reasoning capabilities and pricing that exceeds OpenAI's offerings. Grok 4 Heavy achieved a score of 44.4% in the HLE test, surpassing Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro, with a training volume that is 100 times that of Grok 2 [4][11]. - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in demand for AI reasoning capabilities, with notable increases in token usage across platforms like Google and Microsoft Azure AI, suggesting a burgeoning market for AI applications [4][12]. - The launch of Kimi K2, a model with 1 trillion parameters, showcases the competitive edge of domestic AI models, indicating a trend where local models are approaching or even surpassing international counterparts in certain tasks [4][19]. - The report also discusses the release of Tencent's Hunyuan3D-PolyGen, a 3D generation model that significantly enhances modeling efficiency for artists, demonstrating the ongoing innovation in AI applications across various sectors [29]. Summary by Sections Global AI Dynamics - xAI's Grok 4 series includes single and multi-agent versions, with a maximum context window supporting 256k tokens, and is priced higher than OpenAI's offerings [4][11]. - Google's Veo 3 upgrade allows users to generate audio-visual content from a single photo, enhancing character consistency and camera movement features [13][18]. - OpenAI plans to release an AI Agent-driven browser, potentially challenging Google's Chrome dominance, which currently holds over two-thirds of the global browser market [12]. AI Applications - The report notes that the demand for AI reasoning is rapidly increasing, with significant growth in token usage reported by Google and Microsoft Azure AI [4][12]. - The Kimi K2 model, with its MoE architecture, excels in code generation and general agent tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results in various benchmark tests [19][22]. - The Skywork-R1V 3.0 model from Kunlun Wanwei demonstrates exceptional performance in multi-disciplinary reasoning, achieving high scores in standardized tests [24][28]. Domestic AI Developments - The report highlights the rapid commercialization of AI in China, with significant increases in daily token usage for domestic models, indicating a dual-driven demand from consumer and enterprise sectors [4][19]. - The release of Kimi K2 and other high-performance models marks a transition for domestic AI from capability catching up to efficiency-driven and ecosystem expansion [4][19].

乙烯和芳烃在"十三五"是比较鼓励的，一方面是 2015 年自给率还比较低， 另一方面油转化比较符合成品油需求达峰的预期。但是这造成了后续乙烯和 的产能过剩。 因此主要化工品 2025 年上半年平均利润历史分位数均在 50%以下，比如煤 制丙烯、油头丙烯、乙烷裂解、油头乙烯、PDH 利润在历史 10 年的分位数 分别为 36%、36%、36%、27%、0%，合成氨利润在历史 5 年的分位数分别为 17%。 2025 年反内卷的可能抓手 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 反内卷——石化抓手或在控产能 2015 年石化供给侧改革 2016 年 8 月，国务院办公厅印发《关于石化产业调结构促转型增效益的指 导意见》 ，严控基础化工品、炼化烯烃、煤化工等新建产能，以至于中国 炼油能力增长比较和缓，一直到 2024 年之前并未出现明显的过剩。但是 2024 年情况发生了变化，需求端出现了成品油达峰衰退。 石化&化工产品细分品类多，只能抓龙头炼油和乙烯能力。 我们认为炼油行业面临最大的基本面，是成品油需求达峰和衰退，客观上需 要"十五五"产能净淘汰，而不只是新增产能控制。 乙烯行业面临的困境是，大量油转化 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 住房总量增长、政策预期趋强，静待"击球点" 行业追踪（2025.7.5-2025.7.11） 住房城乡建设部在近日赴广东、浙江两省调研。1）调研组指出，面对错综复杂的国内外经济 形势，各地区、各有关部门坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，保交房攻坚战推进有力， 切实维护了购房人合法权益。持续落实房地产政策"组合拳"，上半年全国新房和二手房交易 总量同比增长，房地产市场总体保持稳定态势。二手房交易占比逐步提高，多个省份二手房交 易量超过新房，房地产市场呈现新的特点。2）调研组表示，促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高 质量发展具有重要意义。各地要切实扛起责任，充分用好房地产调控政策自主权，因城施策、 精准施策，提升政策实施的系统性有效性，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。3）调研组要求， 要加快建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的"好房子"，满足人民群众新期待。要多管齐下稳定预 期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。7 月 10 日，住建 部援引经济日报《住房交易总量增长彰显政策效应》文章：2025 年上半年，随着各项政策加 快落实，房地产市场出现积极变化 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with economic indicators resembling the later stages of Japan's third consumption society and the brand consumption phase in the US [1] - For essential consumption, the investment strategy focuses on low-valuation, high-quality growth stocks with high dividend yields, particularly in the food and beverage and textile sectors [1] - In the optional consumption sector, there are signs of improvement in macroeconomic data, suggesting a potential turning point, with recommendations to select companies showing operational improvements based on financial reports [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown a breakthrough in indices, with a shift in style, where mid-cap indices performed strongly while large-cap indices lagged [3] - Domestic economic indicators such as CPI and PPI are showing mixed signals, with CPI returning to positive growth while PPI's decline is widening, indicating a complex economic environment [3][29] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like real estate, steel, and non-bank financials, which have been characterized as "cold" industries but are currently leading the market [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector, noting that policy support and increased asset allocation from insurance companies could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [8] - The report identifies specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, based on their potential for improved asset quality and profitability [8] Group 4 - The report discusses the robotics industry, particularly the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, highlighting their advantages in torque and shock resistance [10] - Companies like Double Ring Transmission are collaborating with Tesla on developing small RV reducers, indicating a growing interest in this technology [10] Group 5 - The scientific instruments industry is characterized by a significant presence of foreign brands, with domestic brands still underrepresented, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution [11] - The report notes that the mass spectrometry market in China is valued at 16.712 billion yuan, with foreign companies holding over 90% of the global market share, highlighting the need for domestic innovation [11]

行业报告 | 行业点评 教育 证券研究报告 豆神教育 AI 产品映射教育行业 AI 发展方向 豆神教育首推全新教育产品形态 公司在北京举行新品发布会，首推全新产品形态超能训练场和学伴机器人。 发布会公司上提出 AI 双师+超能训练场+学伴机器人教育模式，此次新品发 布不仅是豆神发展重要里程碑，更为教育行业提供 AI 教育新范式。 三要素+四大能力解构超能训练场内核 公司打造以实际效果为导向的"实战训练场"，提出"超能训练场"必备的 三大要素：AI 超人名师、建模互动、混合落实。 一是要有名师甚至超越名师的能力，能基于学生大量的历史学情和个人图谱 定制策略，万人同时一对一策略化；二是有直观的、可互动的教学过程；三 是有切实的、高质量的当堂学习成果的输出。目前来看，市场上尚无其他 AI 教育产品能同时满足这些必备要素。 发布会上公司展现了超能训练场"解、带、细、实"四大核心能力。"解" 是指将构思过程解构成镜头语言，通过构建 3D 模型重构写作画面；"带" 是指 AI 超人名师对孩子开展实时针对性训练；"细"是指在训练中，学生 可随时举手向老师提问，就算细微的、原子化的问题，AI 超人名师也能一 对一针对性指导； ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 5 年二债 1.9% 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 信用策略周报 20250713 本周聚焦：债市回调，信用表现如何？调整后的信用需要担心进一步止盈 风险吗？后续参与的节奏、品种如何考虑？ 一、债市回调，哪些信用品"抗跌"？ 本周，股债"跷跷板"效应延续，债市承压，震荡走弱，市场出现一 定程度的止盈，二永尤其。 信用方面，信用品种多数跟随利率调整，但回调幅度不及利率，信用 利差多被动收窄，其中： 1 年期左右的短端普信品种周内收益率先下后上，全周来看，信用利 差被动走阔 5bp 左右； 2 年期以上品种收益率普遍上行但表现相对分化，4 年期、7 年期品种 收益率回调幅度整体较大，部分中低等级 5 年期债项收益率继续压缩； 5 年期以上的超长信用品种中，城投债普遍回调，部分中短票收益率 继续下行。 此外，当周基准做市信用债 ETF 规模增速有所放缓，一定程度上或受 科创债 ETF 新发影响。但成分券交易行情仍有延续，对应成分券无论是成 交低估值成交比例，还是平均低估值幅度，都显著高于非成分券，尤其是 长端和超长端成分券。 二、配置盘，调整即买入 债市调整期：基金（包 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous and has not been impacted by DeepSeek and trade frictions, with stronger fundamental resonance in the related industry chain. The AI industry is viewed as a key investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain [2][19] - The report suggests that 2025 may become a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development, with ongoing advancements in AI in both China and the US [2][19] - The government work report has included "deep-sea technology" for the first time, indicating a positive trend for the offshore wind and submarine cable industry starting in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations for optical modules and optical devices include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology. Suggested stocks include: Guangxun Technology, Suosi, Dingtong Technology, and others [4][22] - For switch server PCBs, key recommendations are: Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour. Suggested stocks include: Shengke Communication, Ruijie Networks, and others [4][22] - Low valuation and high dividend stocks in cloud and computing IDC resources include: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][22] - For AIDC and cooling solutions, key recommendations are: Yingweike, Runze Technology, and others. Suggested stocks include: Shenling Environment and others [4][22] - For AIGC applications and edge computing power, key recommendations are: Guanghe Communication, Meige Intelligent, and Yiyuan Communication. Suggested stocks include: Cai Xun Co., Mengwang Technology, and others [4][23] Offshore Wind and Submarine Cable - Key recommendations for offshore wind and submarine cable include: Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Dongfang Cable [5][24] - The report emphasizes the recovery of overseas markets and recommends focusing on leading companies in the submarine cable industry [3][20] Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The acceleration of national defense informatization and low-orbit satellite development is highlighted, with key recommendations including: Huace Navigation and Haige Communication. Suggested stocks include: Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and others [6][25] Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 2.19% during the week of July 7-11, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [26] - Notable individual stock performances include: Hengbao Co. and Changxin Bochuang, which saw significant increases [27][29]

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In Q2 2025, A-shares rebounded to 3400 points, with bond rates declining and commodities experiencing fluctuations after a significant drop [2][10] - The A-share market saw broad index gains, with micro-cap stocks surging, led by financial and growth sectors, particularly in defense, military, and banking industries [3][14] - The bond market experienced a narrow decline in yields, with credit spreads initially widening before stabilizing [30][34] - Commodity markets showed mixed performance, with gold fluctuating at high levels and oil prices experiencing a rise followed by a decline [32][46] - Global stock indices mostly rose, with the Nasdaq leading at a 17.7% increase, while the AH premium index fell to a five-year low [2][10] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's fundamentals showed weakness in Q2, with three major economic indicators declining for two consecutive months [3][14] - Macro liquidity indicators indicated a slight decrease in social financing, with a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates implemented in May [3][14] - Micro-funding trends showed fluctuations in southbound capital and ETF performance, with a notable increase in newly established funds in June [3][14] - The industry landscape highlighted a resurgence in the "lipstick economy" and a growing trend in innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a competitive edge in global markets [3][14] Group 3: International Market Influences - The tariff situation led to increased global uncertainty, with liquidity risks observed in early April, followed by stabilization in May as tariff negotiations eased [4][19] - The U.S. economy faced rising inflation and potential stagflation risks, with inflation expectations reaching new highs in May [4][20]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 本周，市场降息预期降温。由于关税政策冲击、初请失业金人数低于预期， 降息预期下行，截至 7 月 12 日，市场预计 9 月及之前降息的概率 60.4%， 一周前为 69.4%。预计 2025 年一共降息 2.01 次，一周前为预计 2.25 次。 关税风险加剧，美元美债上行 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250713 海外市场复盘（7.7-7.11） 本周美股集体收跌。关税影响下，美股受挫。周一特朗普向 14 国发出关税 信函，周二威胁铜、药品和半导体的高额关税，周三再向 8 国发出关税函， 周四宣布对加拿大商品加征 35%关税，扰乱市场对美国经济情景的乐观情 绪。科技股相对抗跌，纳指跌幅最浅。 美债收益率上行；美元反弹。本周特朗普关税举措密集宣布，市场对通胀 的担忧重燃，推动美元小幅上涨。此外，初请和续请失业金人数均低于预 期；部分美联储官员的表态偏鹰，例如鸽派代表古尔斯比也开始转鹰，表 示"新的关税威胁可能会推迟降息"，美债收益率上行。 商品方面，铜价大涨，金银、油价亦上涨。本周二特朗普威胁称对铜加征 50%关税，周三宣布 50%的铜关税将从 8 月 1 日开始征收，令纽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market has reached a relatively high historical level in terms of index and valuation. However, currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, the space for new bond issuance is limited, and issuers have a strong tendency to force redemption, putting pressure on the price ceiling of convertible bonds. If the supply of new bonds continues to shrink, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side, which will also affect the high valuation of convertible bonds. On the positive side, the equity market is expected to continue its upward trend this year, and the small - cap style is likely to remain dominant, which is beneficial to the convertible bond market [34]. - It is recommended to focus on clause games based on the remaining term and performance and financial pressure. Low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. It is also advisable to follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery, as well as individual bonds in these industries [34]. - In the short - term, the stock market is expected to see a weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market. The issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high, but attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Clause - wise, it is recommended to continue to focus on the game space of downward revisions and be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and also pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. 1. 转债周度专题与展望 (Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook) 1.1. 对比 2021，转债何去？ (Comparing with 2021, Where Are Convertible Bonds Heading?) - As of this Friday, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 4,508.48 points, reaching a 10 - year high. The median price of convertible bonds exceeded 125.82 yuan. This year, the index has risen by 8.75%, outperforming the Wind All - A Index. In 2021, the convertible bond market also outperformed the equity market, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index rising by 18.48% and 9.17% respectively [11]. - In 2021, the outperformance of convertible bonds was due to three main factors: at the underlying stock level, the small - cap stocks led the rise in the equity market, and convertible bonds corresponding to small - cap stocks in dominant industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and cyclical industries had a structural advantage; at the valuation level, positive expectations for the equity market and high new - bond subscription returns boosted market enthusiasm, and institutional investors increased their positions in convertible bonds, leading to an overall upward shift in the valuation center; at the clause level, during the equity market correction in Q1 2021, some convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, enhancing investors' confidence in the price - repair function of the downward - revision clause. Later, high - quality convertible bonds announced no early redemption after triggering forced redemption, removing the "invisible ceiling" for bond prices [13][28]. - Currently, the convertible bond market is facing price - ceiling pressure due to issuers' strong tendency to force redemption. If new - bond supply shrinks, there may be a risk of capital withdrawal on the demand side. However, the upward trend of the equity market and the dominance of the small - cap style are beneficial to the convertible bond market. It is recommended to focus on clause games and consider low - priced and weakly - qualified convertible bonds, and also follow the underlying stocks and pay attention to industries with improved supply - demand patterns and expected performance recovery [34]. 1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 (Weekly Review and Market Outlook) - This week, the market showed a strong upward trend, breaking key points. The "anti - involution" sectors were popular. Different days of the week had different market performances, with various sectors leading the rise or fall on different days [35]. - For the stock market, the current valuation of the A - share market has recovered. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the issuance pressure is not expected to be high. The return of incremental funds has driven the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. It is also recommended to focus on the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against forced redemption risks, and pay appropriate attention to short - term game opportunities for near - maturity convertible bonds [35]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes such as AI computing power, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, low - altitude economy, data elements, and satellite Internet of Things; low - level science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and innovative drugs; sectors with expected recovery in domestic demand such as real estate, chemicals, and consumer electronics; and high - dividend sectors such as central state - owned enterprises, "Belt and Road" - related themes, and public utilities, petrochemicals, and precious metals [36]. 3.2. 2. 转债市场周度跟踪 (Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market) 2.1. 权益市场收涨，地产钢铁非银领涨 (The Equity Market Closed Higher, with Real Estate, Steel, and Non - Banking Financial Sectors Leading the Rise) - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The market style was more inclined towards small - cap value. Among the Shenwan industries, 27 industries' indices rose, and 4 industries fell. Real estate, steel, and non - banking financial industries led the rise, while coal, banking, and the automobile industry were among the top decliners [41][44]. 2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率微降 (The Convertible Bond Market Rose Sharply, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Slightly Declined) - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The average daily trading volume increased. Among industries, 28 industries' convertible bonds rose, and only the banking convertible bonds fell. Most individual convertible bonds rose. The price median of convertible bonds increased, and the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [46][53][55]. 2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 (High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds) 2.3.1. 分类估值变化 (Changes in Classified Valuations) - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds significantly increased. The valuations of convertible bonds with par values in the ranges of 0 - 80 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, and 100 - 110 yuan decreased, while those of other par - value convertible bonds increased, especially those in the 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan ranges. The valuations of convertible bonds in most rating categories and size segments decreased. Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from their lows [63]. 2.3.2. 市场指数表现 (Market Index Performance) - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength compared to high - rated ones. This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Since 2023, small - cap and small - to - medium - cap convertible bonds have achieved relatively high returns [73][75]. 3.3. 3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 (Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses) 3.1. 本周一级预案发行 (This Week's Primary Issuance Plans) - This week, 2 new convertible bonds were listed, and 5 were issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices and conversion premium rates of the newly - listed bonds were reported. Five convertible bonds passed the primary approval this week, with a total of 3 bonds being accepted by the exchange. From the beginning of 2023 to July 11, 2025, there were 86 convertible bond issuance plans in total, with a total scale of 137.972 billion yuan [79][80]. 3.2. 下修&赎回条款 (Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses) - This week, 6 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 announced no downward revisions, and 2 actually had downward revisions. Also, 8 convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 3 announced no early redemption, and 4 announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were in the put - option subscription period, and 23 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement subscription period [84][88][90].