基础化工 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 中性(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 中性 | 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 "内卷式竞争"不同于公平竞争，它对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用 2024 年 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议提出"要强化行业自律，防止 "内卷式"恶性竞争。强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。" 2024 年 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议提出"综合整治 "内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。"参考解放日报 2025 年 7 月 14 日发表的文章，《综合整治"内卷式"竞争》中的表述，公平竞争与"内 卷式"竞争的一个本质区别在于，它们对市场价格信号会产生不同性质的作 用。"内卷式"竞争，无视成本、价格、供需实际关系，为了抢占市场份额， 以严重低于产品成本的价格扰乱行业秩序，在招商过程中出现过度承诺现 象，加之相关标准、规范的更新速度滞后于行业快速发展，最终对整个行业 价格信号造成扭曲，无法对资源配置进行积极调节引导，各类主体内耗现象 明显，长期下来将导 ...

证券研究报告 2025年07月23日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 银行 国债买卖何时重启？ 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 2 ➢ 国债买卖定位于基础货币投放渠道和流动性管理工具，于2024年8月正式推出，但从2025年1月起阶段性暂停。 ➢ 国债买卖的推出：长期来看原因有二，一是丰富货币政策工具箱，推动基础货币投放从依赖降准和广义再贷款工具转 向国债买卖；二是中央加杠杆趋势下，国债扩容需要央行配合以缓解流动性压力和稳定发行成本。短期来看，2024 年上半年收益率曲线平坦化现象较为严重，其推出一定程度上隐含引导收益率曲线陡峭化的目的。 ➢ 国债买卖主要采取"买入+借券卖出"的操作方式。这一操作方式使得国债净买入单月操作规模和对政府债权单月增 量无法完全对应，二者口径差为卖出借入国债规模和央行持有的到期国债规模之差。此外，该操作主要对央行资产负 债表的"对政府债权"、"其他存款性公司存款"、"其他负债"等科目产生影响。 ➢ 加速广谱利率下行或是国债 ...

公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 宏工科技（301662） 证券研究报告 固态&非新能源拓展打开成长空间 主业系物料处理龙头，25 年预计订单底部向上 公司当前收入中约 80%由锂电行业贡献，公司的锂电池物料自动化处理产 线及设备主要用于锂电池正、负极材料的生产过程以及锂电池生产过程的 匀浆阶段。 25 年预计主业订单向上，截至 Q1 公司合同负债金额 9.18 亿元，较 24 年 底提升 1.2 亿元，公司总在手订单可观。依托核心客户的国际化产线建设， 公司在巩固国内市场份额的基础上同步推进海外业务拓展。2024 年新签海 外及客户出海相关订单合计达 2.2 亿元，海外业务实现快速突破。 公司在国内物料自动化处理领域为国内第一梯队，2022 年公司在国内锂电 匀浆、正极材料、负极材料领域物料自动化处理设备市场占有率分别约为 24.67%、17.99%和 10.34%。 公司在固态领域布局多款新设备【核心是干法纤维化+物料自动化处理】 具体包括： （1）在干法领域，公司联合清研电子开发了混合均质一体机，成功解决 PTFE 均质、纤维化等行业痛点，相关设备已实现小批量销售； （2）在固态电池方向，公司向客户交付的试验 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, which is expected to significantly boost the demand for civil explosives in the Tibet region [1][3][10] - The project involves an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, with the potential to create a demand for several hundred thousand tons of industrial explosives [3][11] - The hydropower project is a key investment project as outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission for the 2025 economic development plan [1][9] Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is located in Linzhi City, Tibet, and will construct five tiered power stations [3][11] - The theoretical hydropower resource in Tibet is over 200 million kilowatts, accounting for 30% of the national total, with the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin being the most resource-rich area [1][9] Demand for Explosives - The construction of the hydropower project is projected to generate a demand for several hundred thousand tons of industrial explosives, based on the investment scale [3][11] - In 2024, the industrial explosive production and sales volume in Tibet is around 52,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10% in early 2025 [3][11] Company Capacities - Several listed companies have established explosive production capacities in Tibet, including Gaozheng Explosives, Tibet Poly Jiulian, and others [4][15] - In 2024, the revenue from the southwestern (or Tibetan) region for these companies is projected to be significant, with Gaozheng Explosives' revenue from Tibet accounting for 76% of its total revenue [17][18] Financial Performance - The financial performance of companies in the explosive sector shows that Gaozheng Explosives has a high profit margin from its operations in Tibet, with a gross profit of 4.6 billion yuan, representing 89% of the company's total gross profit [17][18] - The revenue growth for companies like Guangdong Hongda in the Tibetan market has been substantial, with increases of 65.15% and 32.41% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [20]

基础化工 证券研究报告 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 老旧设备更新改造，供需两端发力的"成本要素" 老旧设备更新改造政策层层递进，评估指南、以旧换新行动方案、设备更 新实施方案，到老旧装置改造方案 2025 年 07 月 16 日，湖南工信厅发布《关于开展湖南省石化化工行业老旧 装置摸底评估工作的通知》（下称《湖南省老旧装置摸底通知》），要求各市 州工业和信息化、发展改革、生态环境、应急管理主管部门，有关中央企业、 省属国有企业：根据《工业和信息化部办公厅、国家发展改革委办公厅、生 态环境部办公厅、应急管理部办公厅、国务院国资委办公厅关于开展石化化 工行业老旧装置摸底评估的通知》（工信厅联原函〔2025〕254 号）要求， 为进一步摸清老旧装置底数，明确工作标准要求，现开展全省石化化工行业 老旧装置摸底评估工作。 在此之前，2022 年 2 月，应急管理部发布《危险化学品生产使用企业老旧 装置安全风险评估指南（试行）》。2024 年 3 月，国务院印发《推动大规模 设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》。2024 年 3 月，工业和信息化部等七 部门印发《推动工业领域设备更新实施方案》。2024 年 6 月，应急管 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 潘暕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517070005 panjian@tfzq.com 许俊峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520110003 xujunfeng@tfzq.com 包恒星 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524100001 baohengxing@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 消费电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《消费电子-行业研究周报:GB300 启 动出货，看好推理侧需求攀升及 AI 市场 扩容》 2025-07-15 2 《消费电子-行业研究周报:GB300 服 务器即将出货、甲骨文合同落地，看好 算力投资机遇》 2025-07-07 3 《消费电子-行业研究周报:WWDC 2025 将于本周举行，看好 AI 全面融入 系统级体验》 2 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the top five actively increased sectors in public funds for Q2 2025, which are communication, pharmaceutical biology, non-bank financials, banking, and military industry, indicating a shift in investment logic towards these sectors [2] - The absolute allocation of active equity funds shows a significant drop in midstream manufacturing and an increase in downstream consumption, with midstream manufacturing at 41.86% and downstream consumption at 34% [2] - The report notes that electronic, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment sectors have the highest overweight ratios in the industry, while the overweight ratios for power equipment, automotive, and food and beverage sectors have decreased [2] Group 2 - The banking sector has experienced a notable price correction since July 11, with the banking index down 3.41% as of July 18, primarily due to profit-taking and shareholder sell-offs [6] - Despite the recent correction, the long-term positive trend for bank valuations remains intact, supported by stable net interest margins and improving non-interest income [9] - The report recommends focusing on quality regional small and medium banks such as Chengdu Bank and Changshu Bank, as well as major state-owned banks like ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China [9] Group 3 - The report discusses the expected policy measures from the upcoming Political Bureau meeting, which may further promote domestic circulation and economic stability [4] - It notes that the A-share market has shown slight increases due to better-than-expected economic growth and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various asset classes, including equities and fixed income, in light of ongoing economic adjustments [4][27]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, with the listing of new credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs, the bond ETF market in China has grown rapidly, showing great development potential. The report analyzes all types of bond ETF products from a comprehensive perspective [10] Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Development History of Bond ETFs - As of July 17, 2025, the total scale of China's bond ETF market reached 481.1 billion yuan, with 39 products. Among them, the scale of interest - rate bond ETFs was 124.8 billion yuan, credit - bond ETFs (including science - innovation bond ETFs) was 309.6 billion yuan, and convertible - bond ETFs was 46.7 billion yuan [11] - The first bond ETF in China was established in 2013. Interest - rate bond ETFs gradually completed the full - term layout from 2013 to 2025. Credit - bond ETFs developed relatively slowly before 2024 and grew rapidly in 2025. Convertible - bond ETFs have only 2 products, which were listed in 2020, and their scale increased significantly in 2024 and remained stable in 2025 [11][14][19] 2. Characteristics of Bond ETFs - Advantages: Support physical subscription and redemption to reduce redemption impact; component bonds are transparent to ensure position penetration; support "T + 0" trading to enhance trading activity; some can conduct general repurchase to improve liquidity; have lower fees and cost advantages [23][28][29] - Disadvantages: Physical subscription and redemption may have operability issues due to low - liquidity individual bonds; there is insufficient intraday valuation disclosure, with only a few bond ETFs disclosing IOPV [42] - Compared with over - the - counter passive index bond funds, bond ETFs are currently smaller in scale but have greater development potential [44] 3. Components of Bond ETFs 3.1 Bond ETFs' Tracked Indexes - As of July 17, 2025, 39 bond ETFs tracked 25 indexes. Interest - rate bond ETFs' tracked indexes generally have fewer component bonds, while credit - bond ETFs' tracked indexes have more [50] - Index compilation has different sample - bond selection criteria. Interest - rate bond indexes mainly focus on remaining maturity, while credit - bond and convertible - bond ETFs' tracked indexes also consider credit ratings, issuance methods, and bond scales [52] 3.2 Index Component Bonds and Product Component Bonds of Credit - Bond ETFs - In terms of index component bonds, the component bonds of the Shanghai - Shenzhen urban investment bond index and the CSI short - term financing index are widely distributed in different credit ratings, while the component bonds of benchmark credit - bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs are highly concentrated in the AAA rating [56] 4. Performance of Bond ETFs - The report focuses on indicators such as annualized return, maximum drawdown, annualized volatility, and Calmar ratio to compare the historical performance of various bond ETFs, but no specific performance data is provided [4] 5. Major Investors in Bond ETFs - For interest - rate bond ETFs, securities firms (securities firm asset management) are the most common among the top ten holders, followed by banks (bank wealth management) and insurance (insurance asset management) - For credit - bond ETFs, securities firms (securities firm asset management) are the main holders, followed by banks and trusts, and insurance (insurance asset management) is actively involved in some products - For convertible - bond ETFs, insurance (insurance asset management) holds a relatively large proportion, followed by funds [5]

证券研究报告 2025年07月22日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 行情短期调整不改长期向好逻辑 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 银行 摘要 2 7月11日以来银行股价明显回调，截止7月18日银行指数累计下跌3.41%，股价回调或主要受以下三项因素影响： • 前期涨势较强后的阶段性调整。7月11日，银行市净率达到0.74x，为近三年历史最高点位，部分资金获利了结动力较强。 • 套利资金"分红即走"策略加大短期抛压。7月迎来上市银行分红高峰期，部分投资者或存在"分红前买入、登记日后卖出"的短期套利行 为，多只银行股分红期重叠进一步加剧短期抛压。此外，分红后除权除息也导致股价出现技术性下跌。 • 近期部分银行股东高位减持可能对市场情绪有一定影响。杭州银行、齐鲁银行近期皆发布股东减持公告，我们认为这是险资锁定收益的阶 段性调仓，在政策引导和经营诉求不改下，险资可能不会"轻易离场"。 本轮回调后，我们认为银行股估值长期修复向好趋势依然不变，具体原因如下： ➢ 2 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 静待 7 月政治局会议 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。国务院总理李强7 月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。 会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。会议强调，有关部 门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极帮助地方和企业解决 困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 全国政协召开2025年上半年宏观经济形势分析座谈会。政协主席王沪宁表示，今 年以来，面对国际环境复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的中共中央加强对经济工作的全面领导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放， 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 美国国会通过"稳定币"法案。当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞 成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。随后7月18日，美国总统特朗普 在白宫正式签署，标志着 ...