Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - From January to September 2025, the national medical insurance fund accumulated revenue of 21,086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while expenditures totaled 17,280 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% [2][5]. - The commercial health insurance sector reported a cumulative premium income of 8,427 billion yuan during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [32]. Summary by Sections National Medical Insurance Fund Tracking - Cumulative revenue for the national medical insurance fund from January to September 2025 was 21,086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%. Monthly revenue in September was 2,276 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year [2][5]. - Cumulative expenditures for the same period were 17,280 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with September expenditures at 1,847 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year [5]. Provincial Medical Insurance Fund Tracking - In Hunan Province, the employee medical insurance fund accumulated revenue of 340.04 billion yuan (up 4% year-on-year) and expenditures of 221.49 billion yuan (down 6% year-on-year) from January to September 2025 [15][18]. - Guizhou Province reported a cumulative revenue of 573.99 billion yuan (up 12% year-on-year) and expenditures of 474.71 billion yuan (down 1% year-on-year) during the same period [23][26]. - Guangdong Province's employee medical insurance fund had a cumulative revenue of 1,368.41 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year) and expenditures of 1,072.85 billion yuan (up 4% year-on-year) [27][30]. Commercial Health Insurance Tracking - The national commercial health insurance sector's cumulative premium income reached 8,427 billion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2% [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the penetration rate of L2 and above assisted driving in China, which increased from 3.3% in 2019 to 63.6% by July 2025 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and robotics in the automotive sector, particularly focusing on Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotaxi services [3][9] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in companies with strong positions in intelligent driving and robotics [5] Summary by Sections Section: Autonomous Driving - The report notes that L2-level NOA penetration has reached a high level, while L3-level autonomous driving is still in the early stages, presenting a favorable investment window [4] - The penetration rate of L3/L4 autonomous driving is expected to see significant growth, with new models from companies like Huawei, Li Auto, and XPeng leading the charge [15] Section: Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the parts sector include "Nexteer" and "Bertel" for their advantages in specific segments [5] - In the complete vehicle sector, "XPeng Motors," "Li Auto," and "Seres" are recommended for their rapid progress in smart technology [5] Section: Financial Projections - XPeng Motors is projected to achieve revenues of 935.9 billion, 1402.2 billion, and 1695.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 129%, 50%, and 21% [32][33] - Seres is expected to generate revenues of 1796.6 billion, 2179.6 billion, and 2459.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.75%, 21.32%, and 12.86% [60][61]

Group 1 - The report highlights that industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years tend to continue this trend, with defensive sectors like environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation being more prone to long-term underperformance [1][31][34] - The report identifies that leading companies in the public utility and environmental sectors have benefited from a revaluation of their dividend asset attributes in a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances their competitive advantages [1][32] - Industries currently experiencing prolonged underperformance, such as beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services, are nearing their historical maximum underperformance cycles [1][34] Group 2 - The report indicates that sectors with a high probability of outperforming in the fourth year after three years of underperformance include food and beverage, agriculture, social services, pharmaceutical biology, and electrical equipment [1][34] - The report notes that the agricultural bank has shown stable revenue growth, with a 2.0% year-on-year increase in operating income for the first three quarters of the year, particularly in its gold market performance [7] - The retail banking sector is advised to adjust its credit structure by reducing high-risk loans and focusing on more stable income-generating loans [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the orthopedic consumables sector, which has shown significant improvement in revenue and profit margins, driven by market expansion and cost control [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas market expansion for companies in the orthopedic consumables sector, which is expected to become a key growth driver [22] - The report highlights that the automotive sector, particularly in vehicle-mounted power supplies, has seen substantial growth, with a 108.27% year-on-year increase in revenue for the third quarter [17]

证券研究报告 2025年11月09日 行业报告： 行业研究简报 医药生物 医药行业宏观月度运行数据跟踪（2025年9月）： 9月单月数据边际好转 作者： 分析师 杨松 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020001 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 ◆ 医药行业宏观月度运行数据跟踪（2025年9月）：9月单月数据边际好转 风险提示：宏观经济环境风险、政策风险、国内市场竞争风险 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 ◼ 卫生健康财政支出：2025年1-9月，国家财政对卫生健康的累计支出15712亿元，同比增长4.7%，增幅 超过全国一般公共预算支出整体增幅；卫生健康支出占全国一般公共预算支出比例为7.55%，在全国一 般公共预算支出主要支出科目中排第四位（按支出金额由大到小排序）。 ◼ 规模以上医药制造业营收/利润：2025年1-9月规模以上医药制造业累计营业收入和累计利润分别同比 下滑2.0%、0.7%，其中累计利润降幅较上月缩窄。 ◼ 规模以上医药制造业增加值：2025年1-9月规模以上医药制造业增加值累计同比+2.1%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a volatile and weak - trending situation, with the long - end and short - end yields showing different trends. The long - end yields move up and down following multiple logics, while the short - end yields are at a low level and are weakly volatile. The central bank's bond - buying operation may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, but the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear [1][5][6]. - The positioning of the central bank's national debt trading tool is becoming more diversified and three - dimensional, which is an important part of improving the micro - foundation of the bond market and enhancing pricing efficiency. The impact of the scale of bond - buying on liquidity is not the main factor, and the ultimate shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations, fundamental conditions, and institutional behavior [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Bond Market Continues to Seek Direction - This week, the bond market showed a volatile and weak - trending market under the rapid switching of multiple pricing logics. The long - end yields first declined and then rose following the logics of "central bank's bond - buying implementation - stock market strength suppressing - expectation fermentation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation", while the short - end yields were at a low level, and the central bank's bond - buying had limited boosting effect, showing a weak - trending volatility. On Friday, the short - end yields continued to correct due to slightly tight funds [1][8]. - At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly pricing around the central bank's restart of bond - buying in October. After the implementation of national debt trading on Tuesday afternoon, the long - end yields first rose and then strengthened. On Wednesday afternoon, the trading logic switched to the "stock - bond seesaw", and the bond market was suppressed by the strong stock market. On Friday, the expectation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation dominated the bond market, and the tightened funds also dragged down the market [8]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: How to Price the Yield Curve with the Central Bank's Resumption of Bond - Buying? - On October 27, the central bank mentioned resuming national debt trading, with new information including directly linking national debt trading to guiding the yield curve shape, affirming the current bond market operation, emphasizing two - way trading operations, and believing that national debt trading is beneficial to the reform and development of the bond market and the improvement of financial institutions' market - making and pricing capabilities [2][10]. - In October, the central bank net - bought 20 billion yuan of national debt. There is no need to over - focus on the relationship between the bond - buying scale in October and the operation time. The scale of bond - buying does not have a major impact on liquidity. National debt trading may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, and the market's pricing of the resumption of bond - buying may be nearing the end [3][12][14]. - The scale of bond - buying affects the market through expectations. A higher scale can boost market confidence, while a limited scale may be a short - term negative factor. The final shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations of interest rate trends, fundamental repair conditions, and institutional behavior [4][15][17]. 3.3 Next Week's Concern: Will There Be a "Rush - Ahead" Market at the End of the Year? - Near the end of the year, the market is turning its attention to the cross - year allocation market. The "rush - ahead" market at the end of last year was the main driving force for the rapid decline of bond market interest rates. However, this year, there are differences. The sustainability of the purchases by allocation - oriented investors such as rural commercial banks, large - scale banks, and insurance companies remains to be observed, and the increase in the purchase scale of wealth management products and funds is mainly driven by the expansion of the liability side, not by the rapid decline of bond market interest rates [5][19]. - It is believed that the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear. The purchases by allocation - oriented investors may be restricted by floating losses and the high - base effect of last year's performance. Additionally, the imagination space for loose monetary policy has shrunk compared to the end of last year [5][22]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - If the stock market strengthens and concerns about the new fund regulations ferment, it will still suppress the bond market. However, the wave - like recovery of the fundamentals and the central bank's resumption of bond - buying limit the upward adjustment momentum of interest rates. The cross - year allocation market remains to be confirmed, but the game space for long - term interest rates may be opened up. One can try to seize trading opportunities for long - term interest rates but should respond cautiously with a volatile mindset [6][23]. - In terms of spread trading, the current bond - swapping market has generally ended. The further compression space of the "China Development Bank Bond - National Debt" spread needs to be continuously observed based on the purchasing momentum of allocation - oriented investors. The "deposit transfer" may make the scale of wealth management products resilient, and the purchasing power of wealth management products may support medium - and short - term credit bonds. One can focus on medium - and short - duration bonds with coupon value [6][23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [2][57]. Core Insights - The orthopedic consumables sector has shown continuous improvement in performance during the first three quarters of 2025, with a positive trend in overseas expansion [3][10]. - The overall revenue of the orthopedic consumables sector increased by 17% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 81% [5][10]. - The gross profit margin for the sector improved to 66% in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and optimization [4][10]. - The trend of companies actively pursuing international markets is expected to become a significant growth driver [10][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Orthopedic Consumables Q3 2025 Report Analysis - The orthopedic consumables sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 49.18 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [9]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 67%, an increase of 2.06 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 doubled year-on-year, indicating significant performance improvement [10]. 2. Segment Analysis - The joint business segment has seen stable growth due to the continuation of centralized procurement and an increase in both volume and price for leading companies [19][24]. - The spinal segment is experiencing a steady execution of centralized procurement, with leading domestic brands increasing their market share [25]. - The trend of domestic companies expanding overseas is gaining momentum, with a focus on product innovation and international development [27][29]. 3. Related Company Q3 Report Summary - Major companies in the sector, such as Dabo Medical, Weigao Orthopedics, and Spring Medical, have shown strong revenue growth and profitability improvements in Q3 2025 [12][41][45]. - Dabo Medical reported a revenue of 18.76 billion, up 22.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.25 billion, reflecting a 77.03% increase [45]. - Spring Medical achieved a remarkable revenue growth of 109.5% in Q3 2025, turning a previous loss into a profit of 770.6 million [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.6 billion in Q3 2025, representing an 81% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% to 170 million [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, to capitalize on stable supply-demand dynamics and higher profit margins in the two-piece can industry [2]. - A strategic acquisition of COFCO Packaging was completed, enhancing the company's market position in the metal packaging sector and diversifying into high-quality business areas such as steel drums and plastic packaging [3]. - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.22 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.41 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.4X, 11.6X, and 10.8X [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.3 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.1 billion, up 41% [1]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth of 74.11% in 2025, followed by modest growth rates of 4.35% and 5.52% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [5]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow at rates of 35.37%, 7.07%, and 7.83% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - Anta's retail sales for its main brand and FILA brand showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45% to 50% [1]. - The company opened over 300 new stores nationwide during the National Day holiday, including various specialized store formats to cater to different market segments [2]. - Anta has made technological advancements, launching China's first self-developed high-performance fluorine-free waterproof and moisture-permeable material, with plans to increase the proportion of sustainable products to 50% by 2030 [3]. - The HÉLÀ STYLED global tour has expanded Anta's presence in Europe, with successful events in major cities and a strategy to enhance online and offline market penetration [4]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous estimates [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's main brand and FILA brand retail sales showed low single-digit growth, while other brands saw a 45%-50% increase [1]. Store Expansion - Over 300 new stores were opened, including various specialized formats such as champion stores and children's stores [2]. Technological Innovation - Anta launched a new fluorine-free waterproof material and plans to increase sustainable product usage significantly by 2030 [3]. International Strategy - The HÉLÀ STYLED global tour has enhanced Anta's brand visibility in Europe, with a focus on both online and offline sales channels [4]. Financial Forecast - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 13.2 billion RMB, 15.2 billion RMB, and 17.1 billion RMB, with a PE ratio of 16/14/12x respectively [5].

英国电子烟用户首次超越传统烟民；2025 年 9 月中国电子烟出口额同比略增 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 新兴产业 证券研究报告 本周关注：英国电子烟用户首次超越传统烟民；2025 年 9 月中国电子烟出口额同比略增 英国电子烟用户首次超越传统烟民，达到 540 万人 2025 年 11 月 5 日——据英国每日电讯报报道，英国国家统计局（ONS）最新数据显 示，2024 年英国吸电子烟者数量首次超过吸烟者（传统卷烟）。报告显示，16 岁及以上人 群中，10%经常使用电子烟（约 540 万人），而吸烟者比例降至 9.1%（约 490 万人）。人 群特征方面，男性吸电子烟比例较 2023 年略降（从 11%至 10.1%），女性则上升至 10%；16 至 24 岁人群最常使用电子烟，比例达 13%，而吸烟比例最高的群体是 25 至 34 岁（12.6%），65 岁及以上人群吸烟率最低，仅 7.1%。从 2011 年到 2024 年间，18 至 24 岁吸烟率下降幅度最大，从 25%降至不足 10%。控烟组织"戒烟行动协会" （ASH）首席执行官海泽尔·奇斯曼（Hazel Cheeseman）称，这一变化"意义重 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]