公司报告 | 季报点评 安琪酵母（600298） 证券研究报告 海外延续高增，利润增长明显 事件：25Q1-3 公司营业收入/归母净利润为 117.86/11.16 亿元（同比 +8.01%/+17.13%）。25Q3 公司营业收入/归母净利润为 38.87/3.17 亿元（同 比+4.00%/+21.00%）。 酵母主业有所增长，其他业务下滑。25Q3 公司酵母及深加工/制糖/包装类 产品/其他收入 26.45/2.56/0.73/3.42 亿元（同比+2%/-17%/-34%/-50%），食 品原料收入 5.61 亿元。酵母主业增长放缓，制糖业务/包装业务均有下滑。 国内业务承压，国外延续较高增长。25Q3 公司国内/国外收入分别为 21.9 0/16.87 亿元（同比-3.49%/+17.72%），国内业务承压，海外业务维持较高 增速，并贡献主要增量。25Q3 线下/线上收入分别为 26.90/11.87 亿元（同 比+8.06%/-2.12%）。25Q3 末经销商同比增加 1274 家至 24954 家，其中国 内/国外分别同比增加 585/689 家至 18419/6535 家，平均经销商收入分别 ...

点评： 公司报告 | 季报点评 华测检测（300012） 证券研究报告 Q3 业绩同环比皆提升，国际化持续推进 事件：公司发布三季报，实现营业收入为 47.0 亿元，同比上升 7.0%；归 母净利润为 8.12 亿元，同比上升 8.8%；扣非归母净利润为 7.66 亿元，同 比上升 9.3%。 前三季度：毛利率/净利率分别为 49.83%/17.23%，同比-1.05/+0.12pct。前 三季度销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 15.94%/5.91%/8.35%/0.28%，同比 -0.55/+0.32/-0.43/-0.03pct。 第三季度：实现营收 17.42 亿元，同比+8.53%，环比+4.1%；实现归母净利 润 3.45 亿元，同比+11.24%，环比+4.19%。实现毛利率/净利率分别为 50.24%/19.84%，同比-3/+0.25pct，环比-1.9/-0.07pct。单季度销售/管理/ 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 14.65%/5.18%/9.09%/0.18% ，同比 -1.1/+0.72/-0.77/-0.76pct，环比-1.15/-0.96/+1.34/-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 1.999 billion and 673 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.84% and 0.33% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 686 million and 232 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.48% and 4.34% [1]. - The main product category, pickled vegetables, is expected to remain stable, with the fastest growth coming from the catering channel, which saw a 20% increase in the first three quarters [1]. - The company plans to continue developing new products to explore new growth areas in the condiment market [1]. - The family consumption channel remains the largest, while the catering and e-commerce channels have shown growth rates of 20% and approximately 10% respectively [1]. Financial Summary - Gross margin and net margin in Q3 2025 decreased by 3.24 and 0.04 percentage points to 52.93% and 33.86% respectively, primarily due to increased promotional support for new products and rising costs [2]. - The company expects stable raw material prices for green vegetables, indicating no significant fluctuations in costs [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.4 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 820 million, 890 million, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 3%, 8%, and 7% respectively [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 19X, 18X, and 16X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.449 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 3.86% [3]. - The estimated EBITDA for 2025 is 983.14 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 824.21 million yuan [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.71 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.91 [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 9.714 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 5.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [3][15]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 344 million and 64 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15.69% and 18.16% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 140 million and 29 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 27.75% and 13.15% [2]. - The baking business continues to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with major product categories showing positive growth [2]. - The restaurant and food processing segments experienced high growth, with direct sales channels showing significant increases [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 1.55 and 2.68 percentage points to 37.49% and 20.74% respectively [2]. - The company expects steady revenue growth driven by the recovery of the restaurant channel and expansion into new customer segments, forecasting revenues of 470 million, 550 million, and 620 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 81 million, 93 million, and 107 million yuan [2][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47X, 41X, and 36X respectively [2]. Financial Data - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 3.81 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 98.61 million shares, with a net asset value per share of 7.60 yuan [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 31.85% [4]. Growth Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 16% for 2025, 16% for 2026, and 13% for 2027 [2][8]. - The company anticipates a net profit growth of 26% in 2025, followed by 15% in both 2026 and 2027 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [3][15]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 10.50% in revenue and 10.59% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 14.60% and 15.71% respectively [1]. - The compound seasoning products and light cooking solutions have experienced significant growth, with revenues of 3.82 billion and 3.14 billion respectively in Q3 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 25% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the B-end market and the accelerated launch of new products, while the C-end light cooking business is also showing signs of recovery, indicating a dual driving force for growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 32.55% and a net margin of 10.76% in Q3 2025, with a slight increase in gross margin by 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 29 billion, 32 billion, and 36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11% for each year [2]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 2.6 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.4 billion respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 15%, and 13% [2][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The economy is undergoing a transformation from traditional real estate and infrastructure to emerging industries, high - end manufacturing, and service consumption [1][7]. - For the bond market, due to the diminishing effect of traditional drivers (real estate and infrastructure), the potential economic growth rate is declining. New drivers are still being cultivated and cannot fully offset the decline of traditional sectors. In the short term, with inflation under control and the central bank's supportive monetary policy, the risk of significant bond market adjustment is relatively controllable, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 1.8% [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 10 - month Economic Data: Total Slowdown and Kinetic Energy Switch - **Economic Growth Characteristics**: In October 2025, the macro - economy featured "stable production, slow demand, and declining investment", with year - on - year readings slightly lower than market expectations. The endogenous economic growth momentum needs to be restored [1][7]. - **Structural Highlights**: - **Industrial Upgrade**: From January to October 2025, the added value of above - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5% year - on - year, accounting for 36.1% of above - scale industries and contributing 58.7% to the growth of above - scale industrial added value [1][7]. - **High - tech Investment**: Investment in high - tech fields such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence expanded rapidly. From January to October, investment in the aviation, spacecraft, and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year - on - year, and investment in the information service industry increased by 32.7%. After excluding real estate development investment, national fixed - asset investment and private investment turned positive, with growth rates of 1.7% and 0.2% respectively [1][8]. - **New Market Demand**: From January to October, online retail sales increased by 9.6% year - on - year. Upgraded consumer goods sold well, and service retail sales increased by 5.3%. Retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services, as well as tourism consulting and leasing services, maintained double - digit growth [1][8]. 3.2 Industrial Production Remained Stable, with High - end Manufacturing Still Prominent - **Overall Industrial Production**: In October, the added value of above - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a 1.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative growth was 6.1%. The service production index in October increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a 1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [10]. - **Industry - Specific Performance**: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of the automobile and transportation equipment industries rebounded significantly compared to the previous month, while those of the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous metal processing industries declined significantly [12]. - **New Kinetic Energy**: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry continued to drive industrial resilience. In October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points faster than the overall above - scale industrial added value respectively. The output of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots increased rapidly [13]. 3.3 Consumption Recovery was Moderate, with Service Consumption Better than Goods - **Overall Consumption**: In October, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed slightly to 2.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Among them, commodity retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, a 0.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a 2.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [16]. - **Consumption Structure**: Upgraded consumption performed well, and service consumption maintained resilience. In October, rural consumption grew by 4.1%, faster than urban consumption. However, the transmission of consumption policies to end - demand needs further observation due to the constraints of income expectations and housing price wealth effects on consumption willingness [21][23]. 3.4 Investment Growth Continued to Decline, with Manufacturing Standing Out - **Overall Investment**: From January to October, fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The investment structure showed "stable manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag", with only manufacturing investment maintaining positive growth [24]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to October, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year. Equipment purchase investment remained resilient, with a 13% year - on - year increase from January to October, 14.7 percentage points higher than total investment. However, under the guidance of the "anti - involution" policy, the investment motivation of some enterprises may decline in the short term [26]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, with a further decline in growth. Traditional infrastructure construction slowed down, and the construction industry's prosperity level declined. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in October was slow, and the capital availability of some projects might not meet expectations [27]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, with an increasing negative impact. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". Follow - up real estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented [28].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of -0.56% from November 3 to November 7, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.08%) and the CSI 300 Index (+0.82%). The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, saw a decrease of -0.84%, indicating a weaker performance during this period [12][18]. - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend plan for 2025 and a new share repurchase plan, which includes a commitment to a 30 billion yuan dividend and a 15-30 billion yuan buyback. This reflects the company's strong recognition of its own value and has positively impacted its stock price [12][18]. - The white liquor industry is currently in a sales off-season, with expectations that companies will focus on inventory reduction in Q4 2025. The Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM stands at 19.52X, which is considered relatively low compared to the past decade, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From November 3 to November 7, the food and beverage sector's performance was -0.56%, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: white liquor (-0.84%), beer (-0.66%), soft drinks (-1.20%), and dairy products (-0.38%). In contrast, pre-processed foods (+2.26%) and baked goods (+1.69%) showed positive growth [18]. White Liquor Insights - The white liquor segment's performance was notably weaker than the overall food and beverage sector. Guizhou Moutai's announcements regarding dividends and share repurchases are seen as confidence-boosting measures. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index is at a historically low level, indicating potential for recovery as consumer spending gradually improves [12][18]. Beer and General Consumer Goods - The beer sector also faced a decline of -0.66%, but there is optimism for recovery driven by upcoming consumption policies. The general consumer goods segment, particularly pre-processed and baked goods, is expected to benefit from valuation shifts and marginal changes as the restaurant sector slowly recovers [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, three main investment lines are recommended: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiu Gui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang), value recovery stocks (e.g., Ying Jia Gong Jiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fen Jiu, Guizhou Moutai) [3][17]. - In the beer segment, focus on stocks with sustained growth potential and those that may benefit from cost advantages is advised [3][17].

证券研究报告 2025年11月14日 策略报告：投资策略专题 ——普林格与盈利周期跟踪 社融脉冲回落 作者： 分析师 吴开达 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524030001 分析师 林晨 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524040002 联系人 汪书慧 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 1）判断业绩拐点是市场能否走出寻底期的核心矛盾，市场底通常领先业绩拐点1-2个季度出现。当经济周期处于普林格阶 段2-4时（即同步指标上行阶段），股票均有不错的表现。2）普林格同步指标是核心，但需要结合先行指标共同判断。首 先由于同步指标的拐点落后于指数底部，并且仅依靠同步指标，需要更长的时间来验证（至少还需要1-2个月的回升才能确 认低点），对市场判断会出现偏误。因此，我们认为结合先行指标来判断，对于经济底部的判断会提高前瞻性。突破寻底 期的关键在于M1回升的持续性，居民中长贷才是更加核心的指标。居民中长贷顶部往往领先企业中长贷，底部通常比较接 近。并且权益市场寻底期时这两项在同比意义上均出现回升。3）更高频的先行指标要落到资金价格。狭义流动性资金价格 触底企稳是市场出现底部的充分不必要条件。资金价格下行至 ...

港股公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 玖龙纸业（02689） 证券研究报告 浆纸一体红利持续显现 三十年稳步扩张，产业链日趋完善 首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级 我们预计 FY26-28 公司归母净利润分别为 31.2/34.9/38.4 亿元，对应 PE 分 别为 8.6X/7.7X/7.0X。我们采用相对估值法，公司当前 PE 及 PB 处于历史估 值底部，考虑当前公司浆纸一体化稳步推进，预计底部向上周期盈利有望 持续改善，此外综合考虑 H 股相对 A 股折价，给予公司 26 年 PE 10X-12X， 目标价 6.6-8.0 元/股，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 公司成立于 1995 年，总部位于中国广东省东莞市，2006 年于香港联交所 主板上市，目前为全球产能第一的造纸集团和浆纸一体化的龙头企业，主 要产品为各类环保包装纸、文化纸、高档全木浆纸及其上下游产业链。集 团现有造纸设计年产能超过 2300 万吨，经历三十年发展，公司从包装主业 向上下游浆纸产业链不断延伸。 近年来产能扩张驱动营收稳步增长，十年收入复合增速达 7%，2025 财年 实现营收 632.4 亿，同比+6.3%；随着行业供需格局改善及公司浆 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the proportion of public funds' holdings in the basic chemical sector decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a market value allocation of 2.66%, down by 0.94 percentage points year-on-year and 0.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The market value of basic chemical stocks in A-shares remained stable year-on-year at 3.59%, with a slight increase of 0.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The number of stocks held by public funds in the basic chemical sector increased to 161, up by 31 stocks year-on-year and 7 stocks quarter-on-quarter [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Holding Changes - The basic chemical sector's heavy stock holding ratio decreased in Q3 2025, with a market value allocation of 2.66%, reflecting a downward trend since Q1 2023 [2][13] - The allocation of public funds to basic chemical stocks peaked at 4.23% in Q1 2021, followed by fluctuations leading to the current level [13] 2. Individual Stock Changes - The top five stocks held by public funds in Q3 2025 were Juhua Co., Ltd., Hualu Hengsheng, Sailun Tire, Wanhua Chemical, and Guangdong Hongda, with no changes from Q2 2025 [4][27] - The number of companies in the agricultural chemical sector remained the highest among the top 50 holdings, with 11 companies, maintaining a 22% share [4] 3. Public Fund Preferences Analysis - Stocks with a market value of over 50 billion accounted for 32.92% of the total market value of the top 50 chemical stocks, an increase of 7.69 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The number of public fund products holding leading stocks in various sub-industries increased in Q3 2025, indicating a shift back to industry leaders [5]