Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanda Film, with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - Wanda Film is expected to see significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected between 500 million to 560 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 340.96% to 393.87% [1]. - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and deepening its "1+2+5" strategic layout, leading to notable improvements in both efficiency and structure [1]. - The domestic cinema box office for Wanda Film reached 4.207 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, capturing a market share of 14.4% [1]. - The company has successfully turned around its Australian cinema operations and is seeing good returns from film investments and steady growth in gaming profits [1]. Summary by Sections Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "Super Entertainment Space" strategy, which includes opening 33 new stores and 105 specialized stores, as well as introducing interactive facilities [2]. - Wanda Film is incubating trendy toy brands and expanding its non-ticket revenue streams through various initiatives, including collaborations with popular IPs and events [2]. Content and Talent Development - The company adheres to a "Content + Talent" strategy, focusing on high-quality productions and nurturing new talent through initiatives like the "Leap Curtain Plan" [3]. - Several films are scheduled for release in the summer, with significant audience interest indicated by high pre-release viewership numbers [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Wanda Film from 2025 to 2027 are 15.121 billion, 16.342 billion, and 17.073 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 8%, and 4% respectively [3]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 1.154 billion, 1.319 billion, and 1.390 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 18 times [3]. Financial Data - The company reported a significant increase in revenue in 2023, with a total of 14.62 billion yuan, and a projected EBITDA of 3.413 billion yuan [5]. - The net profit for 2023 was 912.24 million yuan, with a notable increase expected in subsequent years [5][12].

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The report discusses how tariffs affect US inflation, noting that the June CPI reflects some impact from tariffs, particularly in categories like appliances, home decor, clothing, and entertainment products, which have seen significant inflation increases [3] - It estimates that for every 1% increase in effective tariff rates, tariff revenue increases by $2.38 billion per month, suggesting that a 10% tariff could yield an annual revenue increase of approximately $220 billion [3] - The report concludes that while tariffs can help alleviate the US deficit to some extent, relying solely on tariff revenue to cover the deficit from the "Big and Beautiful" plan would require an effective tariff rate increase to 19%, which is challenging [3][35] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The report outlines the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy to address both domestic economic recovery and external complexities [5] - It highlights that the current monetary policy framework is evolving, with the central bank improving its liquidity management and balancing multiple objectives [5] - The report suggests that the market may remain in a valuation uptrend for convertible bonds, with a focus on those with low option valuations [17] Group 3: Defense Industry Insights - The report notes that Sweden has procured $525 million worth of artillery ammunition, indicating a rising demand in the ammunition supply chain driven by geopolitical tensions [6] - It emphasizes the increasing need for low-cost, precision-guided, and modular munitions in modern warfare, with the US defense budget for missiles and ammunition projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 13.65% from 2022 to 2025 [6] - The ammunition industry is expected to benefit from sustained high demand, with companies in the sector signing significant contracts in the first half of 2025 [8] Group 4: Cement Industry Performance - The report indicates a significant improvement in the cement industry's performance in the first half of 2025, with profits expected to reach between 15 to 16 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [8] - It mentions that while some regions are experiencing slight price declines due to seasonal factors, prices are expected to rise as demand enters the peak season in August [8] - The report recommends continued investment in the cement sector, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Huaxin Cement as key players [8] Group 5: Semiconductor and AI Industry Trends - The report highlights that the semiconductor industry is expected to maintain optimistic growth in 2025, driven by AI demand and supply chain restructuring risks [19] - It notes that the storage market is experiencing a price increase, with enterprise-level products projected to see significant revenue growth [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor sector, with companies like Jiangbolong expected to benefit from this trend [21]

上游原料整体仓位回升。一级行业 25Q2 仓位分别为有色金属 4.65%(0.15pct)， 基础化工 2.95%(0pct)，建筑材料 0.6%(-0.03pct)，石油石化 0.38%(-0.02pct)， 煤炭 0.37%(-0.1pct)，钢铁 0.34%(-0.27pct)。 中游制造方面，一级行业 25Q2 仓位分别为通信 5.33%(2.39pct)，国防军工 4.17%(0.99pct)，电子 18.67%(-0.07pct)，机械设备 3.79%(-0.7pct)，电力设备 9.89%(-1.03pct)。 策略报告 | 投资策略专题 两个加仓方向：景气与大金融 证券研究报告 主动偏股基金 25Q2 重仓股分析 核心结论：公募基金 25Q2 前五大主动加仓行业（去除被动涨跌部分）为通 信、医药生物、非银、银行和军工。通信和医药的加仓对应的是海外算力景 气和创新药景气行情。非银/银行的加仓则值得关注，这两个大金融行业基 金均低配，主动加仓行为或显示逻辑出现变化。我们认为，非银的加仓或与 稳定币/上证指数突破相关，银行的加仓则与银行长期估值修复、公募改革 方案相关。主动减仓方向主要是食品饮料和汽 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 关税对美国通胀和财政影响多大？ 证券研究报告 特朗普关税政策跟踪 目前宣布的关税政策有哪些？ 截至目前，特朗普宣布或威胁的关税政策，可以分成 4 部分： 1）基于芬太尼和边境问题的关税，主要针对中、加、墨；但符合 USMCA 的商品已经豁免。2）已达成贸易协议的国家：英国、越南、印尼。贸易协 议有 2 个特征：对供应链安全的重视、要求购买美国商品。协议尚未发布 官方文本，细节仍有悬念。3）"对等关税 2.0"，延长谈判期限至 8 月 1 日。 4）行业关税，包括钢铁和铝及其制品（包括钢制家电）、汽车及其关键零 部件、铜关税。 实际有效关税税率上升了多少？ 今年以来，截至 5 月，美国平均有效关税税率从 2.3%上升至 8.8%，共上升 6.5 个百分点。分国家看，对中国征收的平均关税税率上行最多、而对加 拿大、墨西哥的有效关税上升幅度较小。分行业看，钢铁和铝及其制品的 有效关税税率上行幅度最大，其次是家具、寝具、玩具、运动用品、服装 鞋靴被征收的平均关税税率提升较大。 关税如何影响美国通胀？ 1）美国在关税生效之前、到底以较低的价格"囤货"了多少？ 从美国的进口数据看：贵金属（尤其 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 07 月 21 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 何楠飞 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525070004 henanfei@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：降息预期下降-海外经 济跟踪周报 20250720》 2025-07-20 2 《固定收益：央行新动向？-固收周 度点评 20250720》 2025-07-20 3 《固定收益：反内卷预期继续推升钢 价 - 高频跟踪周报 20250719 》 2025-07-19 利率专题 证券研究报告 如果下半年不降息？ 一、降息的可能与边界 上半年流动性逐渐形成了一些新的叙事：政策目标优先级切换、灵活择机 特征更为突出，背后是政策需要同时应对国内经济的结构性修复和外部环 境的复杂多变，此外还包含了从宏观审慎的角度对债市风险防范的前瞻性 考量。与此同时，在货币政策框架转型过程中，央行对流动性调控的灵活 性和精准度也 ...

公司报告 | 公司点评 鲁泰 A（000726） 证券研究报告 非经常性损益带动上半年业绩高增 持续推进海外产能建设，订单稳定 公司将继续以坚持创新及国际化布局为战略，进一步推进国内外市场资源 整合、提升资产使用效率。公司新材料和海外高档面料项目已建成投产， 当前处于产能爬坡阶段，后续将集中优势资源，支持其尽快达产达效，公 司期望 2026 年能够实现利润贡献。 订单方面，公司近期接单相对稳定，未出现重大变化。面料订单 4 月份情 况较好，5 月客户下单节奏稍有放缓，成衣订单相对面料订单表现更好。 关注关税进展，多策略对冲风险 公司自 2014 年起制定并开始实施全面国际化战略，同时不断提升创新服务 理念，开拓新兴市场，提高产品附加值，遵守所在国及地区的相关法律法 规，合理合规开展业务，现已成为全球最具规模的高档面料生产商和国际 一线品牌衬衫制造商。 公司海外基地有部分产品出口美国，且占比不高。目前出口地区处于 90 天缓冲期，公司将密切关注关税政策衍化趋势，与客户保持沟通，积极寻 求多种策略以进一步降低关税带来的潜在影响。 调整盈利预测，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 25H1 业绩预告 25H1 归母净利 3 ...

本周港股通 5 个交易日共净买入 196.22 亿元，年初至今净买入 7358.53 亿元，相当于 2024 年全 年净买入 7440.31 亿元的 98.9%。南向资金重点加仓美团、建设银行、阿里巴巴。当前互联网公 司处于估值相对低位，小米、腾讯、美团、快手、阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度 25 年（阿里巴 巴为 FY26）PE 分别为 34 / 20 / 20 / 16 / 15 / 13 / 13 / 11。 港股周报（2025.07.14-2025.07.18） 证券研究报告 稳定币产业催化不断，持续看好 AI 在应用侧的商业 化进展 AI 方面，腾讯推出美术级 3D 生成大模型 Hunyuan3D-PolyGen，结合自研高压缩率表征 BPT 技术，该模型可生成面数达上万面的复杂几何模型，布线精度更高，细节更丰富，同时支持三边面 和四边面，满足不同专业管线需求，显著提升美术师建模效率。我们继续看好模型迭代的性能提升 以及性价比提升下 AI 在应用侧的商业化进展。 智能驾驶方面，海外方面，特斯拉为其车辆推出新的软件更新，其中包含 Grok 集成，特斯拉已开 始向车辆推送此更新。国内方面，理想小鹏 vla ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 半导体 证券研究报告 半年报业绩预告总结及展望，关注下半年旺季下的高景气赛道 半年报业绩预告期总结，重点关注各行业绩优标的： 设计端业绩全面增长，AIoT、工业控制及汽车电子三大领域驱动 SoC 厂商高速成 长，其中瑞芯微（H1 营收 yo y+64%，归母净利 yo y+185%~195%）、乐鑫科技（归母净利 yo y+65%~78%）、泰凌微（归母净利 yo y+267%）、 全志科技（归母净利 yoy+31.02%~43.62%）显著受益于 AI 端侧需求渗透与国产替代加速；模拟芯片：龙头芯朋微（归母净利 yoy+104%） 及 MEMS 企业芯动联科（归母净利 yoy+144%~199%）则依托行业复苏、技术突破与客户拓展实现盈利增长。设备 / 材料板块头部公 司加速高增，国产设备商长川科技（归母净利 yoy+68%~95%）、屹唐股份（营收 yoy+10%~20%）、金海通（归母净利 yo y+76.43%~111.71%）、 拓荆科技（归母净利 yoy+101%~108%）、中微公司（归母净利 yoy+31.61%~41.28%）持续受益于国产替代及客户开拓顺利，材料 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The ammunition supply chain is experiencing an upward trend due to increased procurement orders from European countries, with Sweden's recent order of $525 million marking its largest artillery ammunition order since the 1980s. Poland plans to increase its large-caliber ammunition production by 39 times by 2028, aiming for a daily production of 1,000 rounds and an annual output of approximately 200,000 rounds [2][3] - The demand for low-cost, precision-guided, and modular missiles and ammunition is increasingly prominent, with the U.S. defense budget request for FY2025 allocating $29.8 billion for missiles and ammunition, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.65% from 2022 to 2025. The sector remains in a phase of sustained high prosperity [3] - The ammunition supply chain is expected to benefit from long-term high demand driven by real combat training consumption and geopolitical conflicts, while the supply side is likely to see new models entering mass production, leading to a "double hit" in performance and valuation for the industry [3] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Ammunition Supply Chain**: European countries are initiating a new round of ammunition stockpiling, with significant orders from Sweden and Poland indicating a robust growth trajectory for the ammunition industry [2] - **U.S. Defense Budget**: The U.S. defense budget for FY2025 highlights a strong commitment to missile and ammunition development, with a notable increase in funding [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies to watch include Changcheng Military Industry, Guangdong Hongda, and others involved in various segments of the ammunition supply chain [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to achieve a total profit of 15-16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the same period last year. Several cement companies have announced significant profit increases, with Tianshan Co. and Jidong Cement reducing losses by 2.5 billion and 660 million yuan respectively. Other companies like Tapai, China Resources, and Wan Nian Qing have seen profit growth exceeding 80%, while Huaxin Cement's profit increased by 50-55% [2][18] - The substantial improvement in performance is attributed to several factors: 1) Major companies have enhanced their price stability awareness since Q4 last year, leading to a price increase of approximately 20 yuan/ton in the average cement price year-on-year; 2) Cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly; 3) The average coal price fell by about 200 yuan/ton year-on-year [2][18] - Short-term cement prices are still slightly declining due to seasonal factors, but the downward space is limited. Prices are expected to rise as demand enters the peak season in August. Current cement valuations are relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 0.7, which is at the 17th percentile over the past three years. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for the building materials industry, which is expected to catalyze further valuation recovery [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) fell by 0.02%. Notable stock performances included Lifan Shuke (+26.9%), Shiming Technology (+15%), and Hainan Ruize (+13.9%). The recommended stocks from the previous week showed mixed results, with China National Materials (+8.8%) and Huaxin Cement (+0.9%) performing well, while Sanhe Pile (-4.5%) and International Composite (-1.4%) declined [1][12] Recent Real Estate Fundamentals - In the week of July 4-10, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.3391 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.55% [14] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices continued to decline, with a drop of 1%. The price drop was mainly concentrated in East and Southwest China, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton. However, demand is expected to improve slightly with better weather conditions [16] - Glass: The domestic photovoltaic glass market remained stable, with prices holding steady. The average price of float glass increased slightly to 1211.96 yuan/ton, with production costs varying based on fuel types [17] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn showed a downward trend, with prices declining slightly. The overall demand remains weak, although there is some support from wind power orders [17]