策略报告 | 投资策略 策略专题 证券研究报告 牛市领涨主线之外，哪些行业值得关注？ 核心结论：牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期风格后半段易有所表现。复 盘大类风格在 06-07 年以及 14-15 年牛市的整体表现，可发现在聚焦主线之 外，周期风格在大盘整固后的后半段相较大盘亦有明显超额。本轮牛市来看， 周期股也同样维持较为稳健的超额，但并未相对大盘走出一段独立行情。通 过四象限定位我们发现筛选出单季度（25Q2）的行业格局变动方向，其中有 色、化工的营收增速、ROE 环比变动较好，具备较好的基本面特征。 牛市主线风格"强者恒强"，但周期风格后半段易有所表现。复盘大类风格在 06-07 年以及 14-15 年牛市的整体表现，也可发现主线风格"强者恒强"。而 在聚焦主线之外，我们发现，周期风格在牛市前半段表现只能说稳健，而在 大盘整固后的后半段相较大盘亦有明显超额。本轮牛市来看，周期股也同样 维持较为稳健的超额，但并未相对大盘走出一段独立行情。 通过四象限定位我们发现筛选出单季度（25Q2）的行业格局变动方向，其中 有色、化工的营收增速、ROE 环比变动较好，具备较好的基本面特征。 有色板块的金属新材料、小金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue recovery with a 62.38% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.875 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery in rare earth prices and adjustments in marketing strategies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing price recovery in rare earth products, with notable increases in prices observed in the third quarter of 2025, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which have exceeded 600,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The company possesses significant resource advantages, being the only holder of an ion-type rare earth mining license in Hunan province, which supports its mining and metallurgy operations [3]. - The company's profitability is showing signs of recovery, with gross profit reaching 251 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and a gross margin of 13.37% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.875 billion yuan, a 62.38% increase year-on-year, driven by price recovery and sales growth [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 162 million yuan, with a significant contribution from both volume and price increases [1]. Capacity and Price Trends - The company has been ramping up production capacity, with key facilities having a combined capacity of 9,400 tons [2]. - The average price for light rare earth oxide praseodymium and neodymium in the first half of 2025 was 430,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 12.68% increase year-on-year [2]. Resource and Operational Synergies - The company has a unique position in the market with its exclusive mining rights and has completed necessary environmental assessments for its mining operations [3]. - Revenue from rare earth oxides and metals accounted for 63.51% and 35.95% of total revenue, respectively, showing substantial year-on-year growth [3]. Profitability and Financial Outlook - The gross margin is expected to improve as rare earth prices continue to rise, with a gross margin of 15.65% reported for the second quarter of 2025 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 410 million yuan, 634 million yuan, and 904 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the copper smelting industry, driven by economic slowdown and the need for industry self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [3][4][6] - The copper smelting sector is facing significant losses, necessitating a focus on capacity optimization to improve profitability [3][22] - The report suggests that the copper industry is expected to return to profitability in the long term, with an emphasis on optimizing capacity and improving operational efficiency [3][22] Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" movement was first highlighted in a Politburo meeting on July 30, 2024, aiming to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent harmful competition [3][5] - The copper smelting industry is currently experiencing substantial losses, with the need for a shift towards capacity optimization and the elimination of outdated production methods [3][22] - The report identifies the mismatch between copper mining and smelting capacities as a critical issue, with domestic smelting capacity expanding while raw material supply remains heavily reliant on imports [45][49] Economic Context - The report draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and previous supply-side reforms, both occurring in a context of economic growth slowdown [7][9] - It highlights that both periods experienced declining GDP growth rates and prolonged periods of negative Producer Price Index (PPI) [9][10] - The current economic environment is characterized by weaker demand on the consumer side, exacerbating challenges for industries like copper smelting [10][14] Capacity Optimization Strategies - The report outlines key strategies for optimizing copper smelting capacity, including the elimination of outdated production capacity and the adoption of advanced smelting technologies [3][52] - It emphasizes the importance of constructing high-standard smelting facilities and effectively utilizing recycled resources [3][52] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages in smelting are likely to have stronger profitability as the industry undergoes restructuring [3][22] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with smelting cost advantages and those involved in mining and smelting integration, such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [3][22] - It indicates that the copper smelting industry may see a turnaround in profitability as capacity mismatches are addressed and operational efficiencies are improved [3][22] Challenges and Risks - The report notes that the copper smelting industry is currently facing significant challenges, including high production costs and a reliance on imported raw materials [3][45] - It highlights the need for the industry to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments to mitigate risks associated with overcapacity and competition [3][22]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights a resurgence in the interest rate cut trade, with global stock indices mostly rising in August, and the A-share market surpassing 3800 points [2][24] - In August, major A-share indices experienced significant gains, with growth and cyclical styles leading the market [2] - The bond market saw long-term interest rates rise while short-term rates fell, with the long-term rate exceeding 1.8% and credit spreads slightly widening [2][24] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Strategy - The report discusses the categorization of "other" bonds, primarily including commercial bank bonds and PPN, with a significant portion maturing within five years [4][26] - It notes that over 90% of bonds maturing beyond five years are classified as secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, indicating a strong correlation between trading volumes and these categories [4][26] - The report provides an overview of credit bonds with yields above 2.2%, indicating a total of 185,744 million yuan in outstanding local government bonds, with 60,791 million yuan yielding above 2.2% [6][29] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Guotai Junan (国泰海通) reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with adjusted revenue reaching 236.97 billion yuan, up 76.8% year-on-year [11][33] - The company’s brokerage, investment banking, asset management, proprietary trading, and credit businesses all showed strong growth, particularly in credit business revenue, which surged by 259.8% [11][33] - Anker Innovations (安克创新) achieved a revenue of 128.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, driven by strong performance in charging and storage products [18][37] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and cloud infrastructure investments, with major companies like Alibaba and Nvidia increasing their capital expenditures significantly [12][37] - It suggests that the ongoing trends in the AI sector, along with the push for satellite industrialization, present substantial investment opportunities [12][37] - The outlook for Guotai Junan remains positive, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating continued growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [11][33]

公司报告 | 公司定期报告点评 国泰海通（601211） 证券研究报告 各业务条线齐发力，合并后业绩稳步高增—25 年半年报业绩点评 【合并落地后业绩持续增长，各业务条线齐发力】 国泰海通 25 年 Q2 单季/H1 分别实现调整后营收 135.4/236.97 亿元，分别同比 +98.3%/+76.8%；分别实现归母净利润 35.0/157.4 亿元，分别同比+38.3%/+213.7%； 分别实现扣非净利润为 40.0/72.8 亿元，分别同比+21.1%/+59.8%。各业务条线齐发 力，共同助力业绩高增，25Q2 单季经纪/投行/资管/自营/信用营收同比增速分别为 +95.1%/+30.5%/+40.6%/+109.0%/+259.8%；25H1 经纪/投行/资管/自营/信用营收同 比增速分别为+86.3%/+19.4%/+34.2%/+89.6%/+205.4%。年化 ROE 为 12.5%，较去年 同期+6.3Pct；杠杆率增加至 4.55x。 【手续费业务收入持续提升，强强联合增厚业绩】 1）经纪业务：公司 25 年 Q2 单季/H1 分别实现经纪业务收入 30.8/57.3 亿元，分别 同比+ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that in August, the A-share market surpassed 3800 points, with a significant inflow of funds and a rise in market enthusiasm [2][3][9] - The major broad-based indices in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.97%, the CSI 300 by 10.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% [13][14] - The report notes that the performance of various sectors was led by growth and cyclical stocks, with notable gains in the communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and computer sectors [13][14] Group 2 - In the bond market, long-term interest rates rose, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.8478% in August, reflecting a 13.4 basis point increase [27][29] - The report indicates that the credit spread slightly rebounded in August, with the highest level reaching 32.65 basis points [29][32] - The report mentions that the commodity market saw a decline in the industrial product index, with oil prices weakening while gold and silver maintained strength [30][43] Group 3 - The report states that global equity indices mostly rose in August, with the Dow Jones leading the gains among the three major US indices [45][48] - The AH premium index rebounded, indicating a recovery in the valuation of A-shares compared to H-shares, with the CSI 300/Hang Seng Index ratio rising to over 17% [45][53] - The report highlights that the US Treasury market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.23% by the end of August, reflecting a 14 basis point decrease [54][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anker Innovations is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - Anker Innovations reported a revenue of 12.87 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, also up by 33.8% [1]. - The company continues to launch technologically advanced products, maintaining strong growth across various product categories and regions [2][3]. - The overall financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to be 2.61 billion, 3.43 billion, and 4.29 billion yuan respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Anker Innovations achieved a revenue of 12.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, and a non-GAAP net profit of 960 million yuan [1]. - For Q2 2025, the revenue was 6.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 670 million yuan [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows significant growth in the charging and energy storage category, which generated 6.82 billion yuan (up 37%), and the smart innovation category, which brought in 3.25 billion yuan (up 37.77%) [2]. Product Categories - Charging and energy storage products saw a revenue increase of 37% due to new product launches [2]. - Smart innovation products, including the eufyMake UV PrinterE1, achieved record crowdfunding success, indicating strong market demand [2]. - Smart audio products generated 2.80 billion yuan, with new releases enhancing the product lineup [2]. Regional Performance - North America contributed 5.70 billion yuan (up 23.2%), while Europe saw a remarkable growth of 66.96% to 3.43 billion yuan [2]. - The Chinese market and others generated 3.74 billion yuan (up 25.96%), benefiting from brand investments and channel expansions [2]. Channel Performance - Online sales reached 8.68 billion yuan (up 28.9%), while offline sales grew by 43.6% to 4.19 billion yuan, indicating a successful multi-channel strategy [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 showed slight variations across product categories, with a noted decrease in domestic gross margin potentially due to tariffs and product recalls [3]. - The overall net profit margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 9.3%, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with projected revenues of 32.47 billion yuan in 2025, 41.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.49 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - The dynamic PE ratios for the next three years are projected at 28.1x, 21.4x, and 17.1x, indicating favorable valuation metrics [3].

公司报告 | 半年报点评 三峡能源（600905） 证券研究报告 装机持续增长，H1 业绩有所承压 事件：公司披露 2025 年中报。上半年公司实现营收 147.36 亿元，同比下 降 2.19%；实现归母净利润 38.15 亿元，同比下降 5.48%；实现扣非归母净 利润 32 亿元，同比下降 20.74%。 点评 H1 新增风光装机 2.2GW，6 月末在建装机达 13.8GW 盈利预测与估值： 考虑到上半年电量情况及新增装机体量，下调盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 64、66、72 亿元（前值为 75、77、84 亿元）， 对应 PE 为 19、18、17 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期、补贴兑付节奏大幅放缓、行业技术进步放 缓、行业竞争加剧、公司开发项目不及预期的风险等 | 财务数据和估值 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26,485.47 | 29,717.04 | 30,970.76 | 34,062.7 ...

现券交易中，"其他"债券怎么对应？ 证券研究报告 信用策略随笔 本篇聚焦：从有限可得的数据维度中，如何相对准确和细化地跟踪二 永债的机构交易行为？ 一、"其他"债券主要指哪些？ "其他"债券主要包括商业银行普通债、二级资本债、PPN 等除了单 独列示的其他银行间债券类型。 对比现券交易数据和成交数据，大致对应商金债、二永债、PPN这三 类。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 二、券种和期限分类上，还能进一步细拆吗？ 现券交易数据披露的期限分类多根据到期期限，基于个券成交明细， 按到期期限分类与之对应，大致有如下几处对应： 1、5 年内"其他"债券多为商金债和 PPN 5 年内的"其他"债券中约 85%以上为商金债和 PPN，其中商金债约 占 50%，PPN 约占 35%；此外还有少量的 TLAC 债、二永债等债券。 由于商金债基本不含权，对应到期期限即为实际剩余期限；部分 PPN 含权，到期期限分布和行权期限分布不完全一致，但均主要落在 5 年以内。 故而若再进一步细分期限，或有较大偏差。但对基本不参与私募债交 易的机构而言，5 年内及细分期限的现券交易基本可看作为其对商金债买 入或卖出。 2、5 年以上"其他"债 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 （3）河南、山东、陕西等区域整体估值相对较高，区域整体估值在 2.23-2.34%区间，2.2%以上债券占比在 44-60%区间。其中山东区域 2.2%以 上存量超 8000 亿元，公募非永续存量超 2900 亿元。 （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州等区域，2.2%以上债券占比在 38-72% 区间，贵州省占比居高。重庆区域 2.2%以上债券集中在 3 年期以上隐含 AA(2)，天津、云南、广西区域在隐含 AA 仍有一定存量。 聚焦省内，2.2%以上城投债如何分布？ 我们进一步聚焦省内，仍根据上文所梳理的 4 个梯队来观察，聚焦 2.2%以 上债券，并关注其中的公募非永续债： （4）重庆、天津、云南、广西、贵州。 2.2%以上，产业债有哪些？ 2.2%以上信用债一览 2.2%以上，城投债有哪些？ 截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，全国存量城投债规模为 185744 亿元，估值在 2.2% 以上存量债有 60791 亿元，占比 32.7%；估值在 2.2%以上的公募非永续城 投债有 25218 亿元，占整体存量债比重 13.6%。分省来看： （1）江苏、 ...