绩优债基的"制胜之道" 证券研究报告 25Q3 绩优债基季报分析 绩优债基样本筛选及总览 1）筛选标准 我们依据基金规模、是否为摊余定开基金、是否有大额赎回或较大回撤、 业绩表现等指标筛选出绩优基金样本。其中，在基金类型划分上，我们依 据持仓情况将中长期纯债基进一步划分为利率债基、信用债基、利率信用 混合债基。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2）规模与业绩总览：利率债基&利率信用混合债基"小"才"美" 整体来看，三季度纯债基表现普遍不佳，其绩优"尖子生"较整体的业绩 差距也并没有很大。在绩优纯债基里，利率信用混合债基表现更佳。和混 合型债基对比来看，纯债基里的绩优"尖子生"业绩表现也不如混合型债 基的整体水平。而在混合型债基中，绩优基金的业绩较整体水平明显拉开 了差距。 纯债基的业绩压力相应带来了规模的萎缩。其中，绩优债基虽然维持了正 增长，但增速也较为有限。分类型来看，利率信用混合债基表现更优，短 期纯债基规模萎缩压力最大。混合型基金中，混合一级债基规模也出现了 小幅萎缩，混合二级债基规模大幅增长。 25Q3，绩优债基的"制胜之道" 1）杠杆与久期：绩优纯债基降杠杆降久期，绩优混合债基降杠杆拉久期 整体来看， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the positive sentiment around the Chinese economy, driven by policy support and a focus on high-quality development, as evidenced by President Xi Jinping's visit to Guangdong to promote reform and stability [3][29] - In the equity market, major indices showed slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the CSI 300 gaining 0.82% [3] - The bond market experienced a net withdrawal of funds amounting to 15,722 billion yuan, but liquidity is expected to improve in the coming months [3][27] Group 2 - The report on the monetary fund sector indicates a trend of extending durations and reducing holdings in certificates of deposit, with a shift towards financial bonds [5][30] - The monetary fund's net asset value reached approximately 14.63 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal growth trend [30] - The report anticipates continued expansion in the monetary fund sector, supported by the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits and regulatory adjustments favoring liquidity [30][31] Group 3 - The REITs market in China showed a cooling trend, with the CSI REITs Index declining by 3.8% and a significant drop in trading volume [6][8] - Despite the downturn, there are opportunities in the REITs market, particularly in defensive assets like rental housing and municipal infrastructure [8] - The report suggests a dual strategy of focusing on stable cash flow assets while exploring rebound opportunities in undervalued sectors [8] Group 4 - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a revival due to improved market pricing mechanisms and technological advancements, with 12 projects planned to produce a total of 440 billion cubic meters per year [9][10] - The report estimates that a coal-to-gas project with an annual output of 2 billion cubic meters could achieve a net profit of nearly 1.6 billion yuan under current pricing conditions [9] - The existing pipeline capacity for transporting gas from the west to the east is sufficient to accommodate the new coal-to-gas projects, facilitating regional price arbitrage [9] Group 5 - The report on Huamao Technology indicates a strong growth trajectory, with a projected increase in net profit from 300 million yuan in 2025 to 510 million yuan by 2027, driven by strategic acquisitions and market demand for AI-related products [11][17] - The company is expected to benefit from high growth in its optical module business, with significant revenue contributions anticipated from 800G and 400G products [17] - The acquisition of Fuchuang Youyue is expected to enhance Huamao's profitability and market position in the AI sector [11][17] Group 6 - The report on XGIMI Technology highlights a positive trend in domestic sales, with a revenue increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while overseas sales are expected to improve significantly due to strategic adjustments [18][34] - The company is focusing on expanding its commercial product line and leveraging its technological advantages to capture market share in the competitive landscape [34] - Profitability is projected to improve as the company reduces losses in its automotive segment and launches new commercial products [34] Group 7 - The report on Xinbao Co. indicates a decline in overseas sales due to macroeconomic pressures, while domestic sales have shown growth [19][36] - The company has managed to maintain profitability through effective cost control and operational efficiency, with a net profit increase of 7.1% year-on-year [19][37] - Future growth is anticipated as the company continues to optimize its operations and respond to market demands [19][38] Group 8 - The report on Guangfeng Technology indicates a challenging environment with a significant decline in revenue and profits, attributed to economic slowdown and increased competition [39] - The company is undergoing a critical transformation phase, focusing on core technologies and emerging business areas to establish new growth avenues [39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.659 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 121.47%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 558.51% [1] - In Q3, the company's revenue was 554 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.74%, and net profit was 72 million yuan, down 39.12% from the previous quarter, primarily due to the delivery schedule of high-speed module customers [2] - The company is capitalizing on the growing demand for AI servers in China, establishing partnerships with major manufacturers and internet companies, which has led to a significant market presence and scale [3] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, developing various products in computing, new energy vehicles, and defense sectors, which supports its innovation strategy [4] - The company maintains optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 369 million yuan, 609 million yuan, and 804 million yuan respectively, driven by strong technical advantages in high-speed connectors and modules [5] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects revenue of 903.64 million yuan, with a growth rate of -8.17%, and a net profit of 72.37 million yuan, with a growth rate of -26.74% [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.48 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 127.10%, and a net profit of 369.23 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase [6] - The company's EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 631.37 million yuan, indicating strong operational performance [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the bond market fluctuated repeatedly. Against this backdrop, the money market fund (MMF) market had two notable features: continued expansion on the liability side, which may continue into Q4, and an increase in duration along with a reduction in certificate of deposit (CD) holdings [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025Q3 MMF Quarterly Report: Two Key Concerns - **Liability - side Expansion**: In Q3, the MMF's stock size grew beyond the seasonal level, mainly due to the expansion of the liability side of existing products, primarily from the retail end. Reasons include the deposit rate cut in late May, the need for low - risk funds to transition from bond funds as the bond market was suppressed by the stock market since July, and the potential early "movement" of funds from high - interest fixed deposits. This expansion trend may continue in Q4 as high - interest fixed deposits mature and the MMF's liquidity advantage is strengthened by the fund sales fee regulation [2][9]. - **Increasing Duration and Reducing CD Holdings**: In Q3, the MMF's duration lengthened, with a reduction in CD holdings and an increase in financial bond holdings. The proportion of assets with a 30 - 120 - day term increased, while that of assets within 30 days decreased. This was because the CD's allocation cost - effectiveness decreased, and increasing the duration of the portfolio through the purchase of policy - financial bonds could enhance returns. Additionally, allocating to deposits and repurchase agreements helped reduce negative deviation pressure and meet potential redemption needs [3][10]. 2025Q3 MMF Performance Overview - **Size**: The net asset value was approximately 14.63 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 50 billion yuan, continuing to exceed the seasonal level. The scale of newly - issued funds dropped significantly, with 3 new MMFs issued, totaling about 9.2 billion yuan [4][11]. - **Subscription and Redemption**: The proportion of net - subscribed MMFs was about 51.9%, a 6.9 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The retail - end net subscription - redemption rate slightly increased, while the institutional - end rate significantly decreased [18]. - **Leverage Reduction and Duration Increase**: The average leverage ratio was 105%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The average remaining maturity of the portfolio was about 85 days, a slight increase of about 1 day from the previous quarter [4][26]. - **Deviation**: The number of funds with the lowest negative deviation remained at a low level, with 150 funds, a slight increase of 33 from the previous quarter. The negative deviation pressure was generally limited [4][28]. - **Performance**: The MMF's yield continued to decline slightly. In terms of the monthly average yield, the average and median at the end of September were 1.12% and 1.12% respectively, a decrease of 0.13 and 0.16 percentage points from the end of June [4][33]. - **Asset Allocation**: MMFs reduced bond holdings and increased bank deposits and repurchase agreements. Among bonds, they reduced CD holdings and increased policy - financial bond holdings, while also lengthening the asset allocation term [3][40].

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - Xi Jinping's visit to Guangdong emphasized the province's role as a leader in reform and opening up, focusing on high-quality development and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [11][12] - The 8th China International Import Expo in Shanghai showcased a record number of participating companies, highlighting China's vast market potential and commitment to global trade [13][14] - The establishment of a new Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance domestic debt management and implement more proactive fiscal policies [24] Group 2: Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a collective slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 0.82% [25] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the implementation of the Securities Settlement Risk Fund Management Measures, effective December 8, 2025, to enhance risk prevention in the securities market [26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase for the first time this year, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries [27][28]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal-to-gas industry is experiencing a revival due to improved market conditions, including a market-oriented pricing mechanism, fair access to national pipelines, and advancements in coal chemical technology [1][2][13] - There are currently 12 coal-to-gas projects planned in China, with a total capacity of 44 billion cubic meters per year, indicating a renewed interest in the sector [1][13] - The cost structure of coal-to-gas production shows that coal and depreciation account for approximately 73% of total costs, making coal prices and investment costs critical to competitiveness [2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Context and Current Landscape - Prior to 2017, China planned 70 coal-to-gas projects, but only 4 were realized due to various constraints, including high coal prices and low gas prices [10] - As of 2025, only 4 companies are operational in the coal-to-gas sector, with a total capacity of about 7.5 billion cubic meters per year [10] 2. Catalysts for Industry Growth 2.1 Technological Advancements - Significant improvements in coal gasification technology have been made, enhancing the efficiency and economic viability of coal-to-gas projects [16][17] - The development of large-scale gasification equipment has reduced costs and improved operational efficiency [17] 2.2 Policy Changes - The introduction of a market-oriented pricing mechanism for coal-to-gas has improved profitability potential for projects [20] - The national pipeline reform has facilitated fair access for coal-to-gas companies, enhancing competition and operational viability [21][22] 2.3 Resource Availability - Xinjiang is identified as a major coal resource area, providing sufficient raw materials for coal-to-gas projects [24][25] - The region's coal production has increased significantly, supporting the growth of coal-to-gas initiatives [25] 2.4 Market Demand - The demand for natural gas in China is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable market environment for coal-to-gas projects [28] - The expected annual increase in natural gas demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is estimated at 20.7 billion cubic meters [28] 3. Cost Competitiveness - The cost structure analysis indicates that coal prices significantly influence the profitability of coal-to-gas projects, with a stable low coal price being essential for economic viability [31][38] - A coal price of 200 RMB per ton allows for a production cost of approximately 1.46 RMB per cubic meter of gas, leading to a potential net profit of around 1.6 billion RMB for a 2 billion cubic meter project [2][36][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market in China has shown signs of cooling, with the CSI REITs Index down by 3.8% in September-October, underperforming other asset classes such as equity indices and gold [2][21] - The recent weakness in the REITs market is attributed to high previous valuations, capital being diverted to better-performing assets, and disappointing cash flow recovery in certain sectors [2][21] - The second public heating REIT in Shanxi has been submitted for approval, highlighting its resource and location advantages, stable revenue sources, and a reasonable pricing model [4][45] Summary by Sections REITs Market and Asset Comparison - The overall REITs market has experienced a downturn, with the average turnover rate at 0.44%, which is 65% of the annual average [2][18] - The CSI REITs Index has underperformed compared to other major indices, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% [13][21] - The market is facing pressure from rising government bond yields, which compress the yield spread of REITs [21][22] Sector Performance - The IDC sector shows high trading activity, while sectors linked to economic recovery, such as logistics and consumption, are under pressure [23][24] - Defensive sectors like affordable rental housing and environmental services have demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics [23][24] - The highest trading volumes in September-October were seen in highways, industrial parks, and affordable rental housing, with respective average transaction volume shares of 21.8%, 17.1%, and 14.3% [25][36] Monthly Special: Shanxi Heating REIT - The Shanxi heating REIT is notable for its low heat source costs and stable pricing, benefiting from the region's energy advantages [4][45][46] - The pricing model includes a two-part fee structure that allows for effective recovery of fixed costs [52][55] - The project has a high proportion of residential users, ensuring stable and diversified revenue [58][63] Market Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a document supporting the expansion of the REITs market, indicating a favorable policy environment [5][64] - Recent project dynamics show several REITs in various stages of approval, indicating ongoing market activity [68] Investment Recommendations - The current REITs market presents both opportunities and risks, with a focus on stable cash flow assets in the defensive sector [6][69] - It is recommended to explore undervalued sectors such as logistics and industrial parks for potential rebounds, given their low valuations and high yield spreads [70][71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.33 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million yuan, up 297.5% [1] - The domestic sales landscape is improving, with the company leading the market through product innovation and cost advantages, achieving a market share of 28.9% in sales and 16.0% in volume for its main product line [2] - The overseas business is showing significant improvement, particularly in online channels, with revenue from Amazon Spain increasing by 111% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2] - The company is expected to launch commercial projection products, targeting a market dominated by Japanese brands, leveraging its technology and cost advantages from the home appliance sector [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin was 30.6%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -1.3%, improving by 5.2 percentage points [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 260 million, 510 million, and 650 million yuan respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 30.55, 15.60, and 12.20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Market Dynamics - The smart projection industry in Q3 2025 faced temporary pressure due to national subsidies, with a year-on-year decline in retail sales of 10.6% [2] - The competitive landscape in the domestic projection industry is improving, with the market share of leading brands recovering to 60.7% in sales and 35.9% in volume [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of overall business growth due to improvements in its overseas team and market strategies [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in profit growth despite a decline in revenue due to macroeconomic pressures, highlighting its strong management capabilities [2][4]. - The company continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures through technological innovation and enhanced production efficiency [2][4]. - The company has a strong operating cash flow, which supports its future development [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 840 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% [1][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 9.8%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 13.1% [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 21.33%, with a net profit margin of 7.1%, reflecting effective cost control and efficiency improvements [3][4]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.037 billion yuan, an increase of 69.35% year-on-year, indicating strong operational resilience [3][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's foreign sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 3.695 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.87%, primarily due to macroeconomic changes affecting demand [2][4]. - Domestic sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 787 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [2][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 1.13 billion, 1.22 billion, and 1.36 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.1, 10.2, and 9.2 for the years 2025-2027 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on revenue and profits due to economic slowdown and intensified competition in certain business areas. However, it is in a critical transformation phase, focusing on a strategy of "core technology + core components + application scenarios," which has shown significant progress in emerging business areas, potentially creating a new growth curve [2] - The company has launched new products in the AR glasses and underwater laser radar sectors, which are expected to become core growth drivers. The AR glasses based on the LCOS solution and the first consumer-grade visible light underwater laser radar are anticipated to ignite market enthusiasm and open new market opportunities [2] - The automotive business is also expected to contribute significantly to future performance as it scales up production from designated projects [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 32.0%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. However, the operating expense ratio rose to 32.9%, up 8.5 percentage points, leading to a net profit margin of -1.7% [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards but raised the forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of -0.73 million, 1.17 million, and 2.42 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2025 is 2,338.65 million, with a growth rate of -3.30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -72.91 million [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at -0.16, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -114.23 [4] Business Segments - The AR glasses optical machine segment is expected to become a core growth point due to successful customer expansion and technological validation [2] - The underwater laser radar segment has launched innovative products that are set to break traditional application barriers, with sales expected to start in 2026 [2] - The automotive business is gaining traction with designated projects, indicating a clear growth outlook [2]