证券研究报告 2025年07月19日 策略报告：投资策略专题 连板空间与主题投资的短期胜率&赔率 产业赛道与主题投资风向标 作者： 分析师 吴开达 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524030001 分析师 肖峰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524040003 重点主题：（1）AIDC：政策需求共振带来高景气，算力链业绩有望超预期。（2）城市更新：城市工作会议在京举行，推进城市更新成为重要抓手。（3）稳定币：全 球稳定币监管框架加速成型，人民币国际化迎来新抓手。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 摘要 周思考：连板空间（最高连板数量）是反应市场短线情绪的重要指标之一。我们复盘了2020年1月1日到2025年6月30日连板空间与后续市场表现，归纳了不同连板高度 与主题投资的胜率&赔率。我们根据连板数量不同，将连板空间划分为情绪冰点期（2-3板）、混沌轮动期（4-6板）、主线上升期（7-9板）和市场高潮期（10板及以 上），并用小盘相对全A收益率来表征主题投资收益率。整体而言，当处于市场高潮期时主题投资的短期胜率&赔率占优，其次是混沌轮动期。但考虑中期表现（20个交 易日），主线上升期则优于混沌轮动期。 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 多头组合方面，最近一周，标准化预期外盈利、标准化预期外收入、90 天分析师覆盖度等因子表现较好，bp、股息率、季度 ep 一年分位数等因 子表现较差；最近一月，标准化预期外盈利、Beta、季度净利润同比增长 等因子表现较好，财报超研报预期程度、bp 三年分位数、基于一致预期 的标准化预期外盈利等因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月换手率 波动、1 个月日均换手率等因子表现较好，基于一致预期的标准化预期外 盈利、一年动量、90 天内预期调整均值等因子表现较差。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型基于历史数据。 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报：关键指标如期触发，后续如何应 对？》 2025-07-13 2 《金融工程：金工定期报告-净利润 断层本周超额基准 1.35%》 2025-07- 13 金融工程 证券研究报告 因子跟踪周报： 成长、换手率因子表现较好 - 20250719 因子 IC 跟踪 IC 方面，最近一周，1 个月换手率与均价的相关性、一 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY, based on a current price of 4.49 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a strong player in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with high profitability elasticity and increased shareholder returns expected to lead to a revaluation of its value [2]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a restructuring phase to a growth phase, significantly improving its operational status and financial health [1][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, has developed a synergistic operating model focusing on aluminum and deep processing, supported by coal mining, thermal power generation, and carbon products [1]. - The current production capacity includes 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum, 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, 150,000 tons of carbon products, and 90,000 kW of electricity [1]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant recovery post-restructuring, with a projected net profit of 1.83 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 227.61 billion CNY in 2024 to 235.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.42% [5]. Industry Analysis - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling at approximately 45 million tons [3]. - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, transportation, and renewable energy, with significant growth expected from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, benefiting from cost reductions in alumina and electricity, which are expected to improve profit margins in 2025 [2][4]. - The average electricity price in the Guangyuan region is projected to decrease significantly in 2025, further enhancing profitability [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a robust employee stock ownership plan, aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion CNY, and has committed to distributing at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [2][25].

公司发布二五年六月营收公告 制造业务增长支撑整体表现。25 年 6 月公司营收 6.6 亿美元，同比+1.5%； 其中制造同比+9.4%，宝胜营收-16.4%，制造业务增长表现亮眼。 1-6 月累计营收 40.6 亿美元，累计同比+1.1%；其中制造同比+6.2%，宝胜 营收同比-8.3%，零售业务静待修复。 美越达成贸易协议，关税进展顺利 美国与越南正式达成贸易协议。根据协议条款，越南出口至美国的所有商 品将被征收 20%关税，任何经第三地转运的货物则需缴纳 40%关税。作为 交换，越南同意全面向美国开放市场，允许美国商品以零关税进入越南。 越南是美国重要的纺织服装商品进口国之一，美越关税落地，对服装品牌 和制造商在关税税负承担问题上带来更多确定性。同时考虑到越南生产商 及美国入口商能够分别承担关税，则关税属于双方能够承担的范围之内。 港股公司报告 | 公司点评 裕元集团（00551） 证券研究报告 制造韧性凸显，关注关税进展 公司制造业务覆盖越南，且美国为其第二大主营市场。24 年越南的产能利 用率保持较高水平，鞋履出货量同比增长 4%，占总出货量的 31%；而美国 收入占比 19%，美越协议的签署使公司 ...

证券研究报告 2025年07月18日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 银行 银行投资跟踪：如何看待银行股价和基本面的背离？ 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 风险提示：宏观经济震荡、不良风险大幅上升、净息差下行压力加大、测算结果可能与现实情况存在差异。 2 ➢ 复盘历史，银行股价和基本面长期存在"背离"现象。这或是因为，在经济上行周期中，银行基本面表现较好，但银行股相较于其他高成 长板块可能缺乏对资金的吸引力；而在宏观经济表现相对承压时，银行基本面有所承压，银行板块的防御属性突出，反而拥有超额收益。 ➢ 目前银行基本面仍然承压，但市场偏好高股息策略下涨势亮眼。2025Q1商业银行净利润同比负增2.32%，较去年同期增速低2.97pct。而 银行股估值正攀升至近年较高水平，截止7月11日，银行板块PB为0.75倍，处于近十年50%的历史分位数水平。 ➢ 当前银行基本面持续筑底，但仍有边际改善。具体而言： • 一方面，受益于存量高息负债集中到期和贷款定价下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period last year, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline and online channels showing a mid-single-digit increase [1]. - The company has signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and support international expansion [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to consumer pressure, projecting revenues of 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels declining and online channels increasing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date [1]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance the company's brand image and leverage its association with major international sporting events [2]. - The company has also signed contracts with emerging CBA stars, including Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the NBA draft, which may help in establishing a stronger presence in the international market [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to anticipated consumer challenges, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 RMB, 0.99 RMB, and 1.06 RMB for 2025-2027 [4].

策略报告 | 投资策略专题 1+N 新政助力科创板高质量发展 证券研究报告 科创板专题系列 1. 今年以来科创板扶持脉络 5 月 13 日，科技部、央行、金融监管总局、证监会等七部门联合印发《加 快构建科技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项改革措施，首次形成覆盖"募—投—贷—保—退"全生命周期的政策 闭环。 在2025陆家嘴论坛上，吴清主席宣布了将对科创板进行了一系列调整，包括： 1. 聚焦提升制度的包容性和适应性，将推出进一步深化科创板改革"1+6" 政策措施，重启未盈利企业适用于科创板第五套标准上市；2.推出科创债 ETF；3. 支持编制更多科技创新指数、开发更多科创主题公募基金产品。 目前围绕"构建与科技创新相适应的科技金融体制"，中央部委和地方同步 推出了一揽子金融支持政策，可归纳为"一套顶层设计 + 五大资金渠道 + 三项保障机制"。 2. 科创板上市公司质量解码 偿债能力方面：与 2019 年相比，科创板上市企业的短期偿债能力有明显提 升，且近年来保持相对稳定的趋势。与主板上市企业相比，短期偿债能力也 更强。已获利息倍数方面，科创板企业则发生了大幅回落。 运营能力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company of 41% to 60% for the first half of 2025, with a midpoint growth rate of 51% [1] - The company continues to develop its personalized "one-on-one" education tutoring model, enhancing its presence in the personalized education sector while also advancing vocational education and cultural reading initiatives [2] - The industry is currently in a recovery growth phase, with leading companies expected to benefit preferentially due to compliance qualifications and brand advantages [3] - The company has resumed its expansion of learning centers, increasing from over 240 to over 300 centers, covering more than 100 cities, which is expected to enhance operational leverage as market demand for personalized education rises [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The projected net profit for the company for 2025 is estimated to be between 261.38 million and 330.25 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 19, and 15 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2,212.64 million yuan in 2023 to 4,887.39 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5] - The EBITDA is projected to increase from 328.75 million yuan in 2023 to 578.87 million yuan in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [5] Market Position - The company is positioned as a stable performer in the A-share education sector, likely to enjoy valuation premiums due to its consistent performance [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|如何定位"市场化反内卷"？》 1、我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧 重于成本调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的 供给格局配合，我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个 方面讨论哪些行业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和 存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，以上述三个指标是否发 生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出 清的行业。2、我们筛选出两类受益方向：第一类走困境反转逻辑，行业 "反内卷"需求较为迫切，处在周期底部，出清拐点初步显现且具有较好 的出清弹性，属于"反内卷"较为核心的赛道。典型行业为光伏设备、通 用设备。以光伏为例，行业库存与开支周期向下，去库效果初显，营收增 速出现环比改善，但毛利率和现金流的改善仍未出现，困境反转后向上空 间较大。第二类走率先出清、盈利改善的右侧逻辑，内卷程度已经得到一 定改善，行业业绩能见度较高。典型为家电、化学原料等。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验有局限性；2）地缘风险 ...