英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 18 日 震荡慢牛仍是主基调，关注业绩超预期标的 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 金点策略晨报 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周一沪深三大指数涨跌不一，大消费板块相对强势，但也有分化，前期走强 的科技板块走势略有放缓，大资金调仓行为或致使指数震荡。另外，3400—3500 点区间存在去年套牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完成筹码交换 与整固。 后市行情如何演绎？我们认为，短期市场流动性相对充裕以及政策持续发力 下，震荡上行的慢牛格局依旧是主基调。后市指数走势将进入政策与经济基本面 验证期。若货币及消费刺激等政策落地节奏超预期，指数有望挑战更高点位。同 时，观察科技、消费等板块的业绩兑现情况，也将成为行情能否持续的关键。不 过，阶段也还有扰动。如果政策发力滞后或者海外不利因素继续扩大，A 股情绪 可能会受到一定干扰。 操作上，可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息率或低估值消费板块，业绩超 预期的标的也值得重点关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "in line with the market," indicating a stable fundamental outlook, with expectations that the industry index will follow the performance of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the short-term market may experience a phase of volatility and pullback, which should be viewed as a washout behavior. The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) will set the annual economic targets, including decisions on special government bond issuance and deficit adjustments, which are crucial for market attention [2][4][8]. - It is recommended that investors maintain a flexible investment strategy, adjusting their portfolios based on sector performance and market dynamics. Specifically, for technology stocks that have seen significant gains, it may be prudent to reduce holdings to lock in profits, while still maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on the technology sector [2][9]. - The report highlights that sectors such as pharmaceuticals and new energy, which have undergone substantial corrections in recent years, present potential investment opportunities [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the market is expected to face short-term adjustments, with technology stocks being a primary drag on performance. The ChiNext 50 index fell over 1.50%, reflecting cautious market sentiment and rapid fund rotation among sectors [5][9]. - On March 4, 2025, the NPC will commence, and the decisions made regarding economic targets and fiscal policies will be pivotal for market direction [2][4]. Sector Analysis - **New Energy Sector**: The report indicates that the new energy sector, including battery and solid-state battery stocks, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing demand driven by carbon neutrality goals and the rapid development of the electric vehicle industry [6][8]. - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The pharmaceutical and medical sectors have also seen collective gains, with the report suggesting that the sector is undervalued and poised for recovery due to factors such as aging demographics and previous price corrections [7][8]. - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion Stocks**: Stocks related to controlled nuclear fusion have surged due to favorable news, although the report advises caution regarding the sustainability of this rally [7].

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 5 日 多重因素影响下,市场或仍有震荡,关注"两会"政策动向 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点 : 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一,军工及半导体板块大涨,科技股出现反弹,并 一度带领指数上行。不过,从成交量上看,A 股两市成交额再度萎缩,市场反弹 动力略有不足。近期 A 股成交额持续回落,从 2 月 21 日的 2 万多亿降至不足 1.5 万亿,市场活跃度显著降温,市场容易陷入存量博弈;从板块方面看,AI、 机器人行业(连在一起读)等前期主线退潮后,固态电池、军工等热点快速轮动 但缺乏持续性,显示资金追高意愿不足;从外部环境看,贸易摩擦升级与美股波 动加剧市场不确定性。 因此,短期来看,A 股迎来两会周期下,随着热点的分化以及成交的萎缩, 整体或进入震荡阶段。操作上,建议规避高估值科技股回调风险。不过,中期看, 政策支持与经济复苏预期仍为市场提供支撑,市场阶段的调整或仍是整体上行中 的洗盘。可逢低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that despite external and internal disturbances, the Chinese economy is in a transition period with abundant policy reserves, and fiscal measures are actively supporting economic stability. The main trend remains a "slow bull market" characterized by fluctuations, suggesting that a strategy of "buy low and sell high" may be advantageous in the short term [2][8]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On a day when U.S. markets experienced declines, the A-share market demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although it could not maintain the upward momentum and closed slightly lower, indicating ongoing market divergence [4][8]. - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, which is a previous area of concentrated trading activity that needs to be resolved [2][8]. Sector Performance - The report highlights that the computing power sector saw significant activity, driven by events such as the AI and cloud computing industry conference in Hangzhou, which is expected to accelerate the development of the digital economy [6]. - The cultural media sector, particularly gaming and media, has shown strong performance, with a noted 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, validating previous investment recommendations. However, regulatory changes have introduced volatility, necessitating a cautious approach moving forward [7]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Overall market sentiment is described as moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling. The total trading volume reached 1.6838 trillion yuan, reflecting a stable but cautious investment environment [5]. - The report advises investors to remain vigilant regarding the performance of technology stocks, particularly in light of the upcoming earnings season, which will be critical for assessing the sustainability of high valuations [2][8].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish sentiment on the A-share market, particularly after the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, reaching a new high for the year. The report suggests that the market is likely to maintain a slow upward trend due to ample liquidity and ongoing policy support [3][17]. - The rotation in market style is attributed to two main factors: expectations of monetary policy easing and increased consumer stimulus policies. This has led to a recovery in the financial sector and consumer-related stocks [3][17]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors as key indicators for the sustainability of the market rally [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.24%. The consumer sector, particularly dairy and financial stocks, led the gains [8][7]. - The report notes that the market is entering a verification phase for policies and economic fundamentals, with potential challenges if policy measures are delayed or external factors worsen [3][17]. Sector Analysis - **Consumer Sector**: The report suggests that consumer stocks, especially those with high dividend yields or low valuations, are worth considering for investment. The consumer sector is expected to benefit from ongoing stimulus measures [4][10]. - **Financial Sector**: The financial sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of improved performance due to increased trading volumes and supportive monetary policies [10][12]. - **Technology Sector**: While the long-term outlook for technology stocks remains positive, the report advises caution in the short term due to potential volatility and the need for earnings to support high valuations [4][9]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions in financial, cyclical, and high-dividend consumer stocks while being cautious with high-valuation technology stocks during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a high-low strategy, taking advantage of price fluctuations while focusing on stocks with strong earnings visibility [18][19].

Core Views - The report suggests that after the A-share index breaks through 3400 points, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend due to ample liquidity and continuous policy support, with a focus on verifying economic fundamentals and policies [3][17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors as key factors for the sustainability of the market rally [3][17][19] Market Overview - Last week, the A-share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3419.56 points, up 1.81% [7][19] - The consumer sector saw significant gains, particularly in dairy, food and beverage, and financial sectors, while technology stocks remained relatively subdued [3][10][19] Sector Analysis - **Consumer Sector**: The report highlights the collective rise in consumer stocks, driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including increased credit support for retail and hospitality sectors [3][10][19] - **Financial Sector**: The financial sector is expected to benefit from a favorable monetary policy environment, with expectations of valuation recovery [3][10][19] - **Technology Sector**: While the long-term bullish logic for technology stocks remains intact, there is a cautionary note regarding potential short-term volatility and the need for performance verification during the earnings season [4][9][18] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investors to strategically increase positions in cyclical, high-dividend, or undervalued consumer stocks, while being cautious with high-valuation technology stocks that may face correction pressures [4][18] - It suggests a focus on stocks with strong earnings certainty during the upcoming earnings season, particularly in the technology sector [4][18] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the recent CPI data indicates a cooling inflation environment, which may lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting gold prices and traditional safe-haven assets [11][12] - The report also mentions the ongoing development of new industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, which are expected to grow significantly in the coming years [13][15]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四晨报提醒，周三 A 股尾盘小幅翻绿，显示目前多空双方仍有分歧，或有 以下几个方面的原因：一是大盘 3400 点附近是前期密集成交区间，这个位置的 压力仍需化解；二是财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密集披露期， 企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 等科技股的估值已反映预期，但 部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性。 市场走势如我们预期，周四沪深三大指数集体调整，盘面上看，人行机器人、 人工智能等科技股大面积下跌，市场分化明显，煤炭、电力、公用事业等红利板 块走强。周四科技股的下挫核心还是阶段的上涨之后获利回吐的需求提升，另外， 一季度末至二季度初为财报密集披露期，部分高估值或缺乏业绩支撑的个股面临 回调压力。 整体上看，海外扰动以及国内基本面验证期之际，短期科技股或迎来分化回 落，不过，科技股中长期牛市逻辑未变，而板块也正从此前的题材炒作逐步向业 绩兑现过度。在此期间，投资者可减少波动大的科技股仓位，适当增持顺周期、 高股息率或低估值消费板块，同时，如果在此期间指数回调，则可布局业绩确定 性 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly outperforming the market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [17]. Core Viewpoints - The current market is entering a performance verification period, with short-term technology stocks likely to experience differentiation and potential pullbacks. Investors are advised to strategically allocate to high dividend yield stocks [2][9]. - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, with earnings reports expected to reveal performance disparities among companies. The upcoming earnings season will be critical for assessing the sustainability of high valuations in technology stocks [4][10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for technology stocks remains intact, transitioning from speculative trading to performance realization [2][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Analysis - The A-share market showed mixed signals, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3358.73 points, down 0.39%. The total trading volume reached 16,067 billion [5][10]. - High dividend yield sectors such as coal, electricity, and public utilities performed well, while technology stocks, particularly AI and robotics, faced significant declines due to profit-taking [6][9]. Sector Performance - High dividend yield stocks are expected to maintain their value in a low-interest-rate environment, providing stable returns and resilience against market risks. However, caution is advised against overcrowding in these assets [6]. - Gold and jewelry stocks saw an uptick, driven by declining inflation rates and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may benefit traditional safe-haven assets [7]. Future Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience further differentiation among sectors, with technology stocks facing potential corrections due to high valuations lacking performance support. Investors are encouraged to reduce exposure to volatile tech stocks and consider increasing positions in cyclical and undervalued consumer sectors [2][9].

Core Views - The main trend in the market remains a slow bull market, with the need to resolve pressure around the 3400-point level, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [2][8][9] A-Share Market Analysis - On Wednesday, despite the decline in US markets, A-shares demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, although it could not maintain the upward momentum and closed slightly lower, indicating a divergence between bulls and bears [4][8] - The market is currently facing pressure around the 3400-point level, which is a previous area of concentrated trading, and this needs to be addressed [2][8] - The upcoming earnings season, particularly from mid-March to April, will be critical for assessing corporate profitability, which could lead to performance differentiation among stocks [2][8] - The market has already priced in expectations for AI and tech stocks, but there is uncertainty regarding whether some stocks can meet these high valuations [2][8] Sector Performance - The computing power sector saw a collective surge, driven by news of an AI and cloud computing industry conference in Hangzhou, indicating a potential acceleration in the digital economy [6] - The cultural media sector experienced significant gains, particularly in gaming and media, with a noted 42.75% increase in the first half of 2023, validating previous investment recommendations [7] - Despite a strong performance, the cultural media sector faced setbacks due to regulatory changes affecting gaming stocks, highlighting the volatility in this space [7] Market Sentiment - Overall, the market sentiment remains moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling, but the profitability effect is average, as indicated by a total trading volume of 16,838 billion [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban and rural areas both showing a decline of 0.7%[2] - Food prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%[2] - The CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in February, with food prices down 0.5% and service prices down 0.4%[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI dropped by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in February[2] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while living materials saw a decline of 1.2%[2] - The prices in the electricity and heat production sector fell by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by international oil price adjustments[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative CPI growth is attributed to seasonal factors and is expected to rebound with consumer promotion policies[2] - Industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow[2] - The report highlights risks from global trade tensions and geopolitical instability affecting commodity prices and manufacturing costs[1]