Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since January 2024. This decline is attributed to various factors, including a high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% in February, with production material prices dropping by 2.5%. The report suggests that the PPI decline may continue to narrow as industrial demand recovers [2]. - The report anticipates that with the implementation of consumption promotion policies, the CPI is expected to rebound, despite the current negative growth [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Research - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices down by 3.3% and non-food prices down by 0.1%. The CPI also fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2]. - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, with significant drops in production material prices [2]. - The report notes that the industrial production is gradually recovering, and the PPI's year-on-year decline may continue to narrow [2]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into various price trends, including a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 3.8% month-on-month due to warmer weather and a drop in pork prices by 1.9% [2]. - The report also mentions that prices in the new energy and artificial intelligence sectors are experiencing upward trends, with certain metal prices increasing [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive fundamental outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [18]. Core Views - The A-share market demonstrates resilience, with a "slow bull" trend remaining the main theme despite external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and economic recession fears. The market's stability is supported by robust fiscal policies, including a projected budget deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][10]. - Investors are advised to adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy in the short term, focusing on stocks with strong earnings support, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from policy boosts and domestic consumption trends [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market showed resilience amid global market volatility, with major indices closing in the green despite initial declines. Key sectors such as aerospace and agriculture performed well, indicating structural opportunities within the market [2][9]. - The overall market sentiment was moderate, with a total trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan across the exchanges, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,379.83 points, up 0.41% [6]. Sector Analysis - Aerospace and military stocks were notably active, with expectations of increased defense budgets and ongoing geopolitical tensions serving as potential catalysts for growth. However, high valuations may lead to volatility in individual stocks [7]. - Consumer sectors, particularly liquor and poultry, showed resilience against external uncertainties, with domestic consumption expected to drive economic recovery in 2025. The report highlights opportunities in the "silver economy" and affordable retail segments [7][8]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, supported by government policies aimed at fostering new industries. The report anticipates a trillion-yuan market for general aviation by 2030, with opportunities in low-altitude infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing [8].

2025 年 3 月 12 日 A 股市场凸显韧性，震荡慢牛仍是主基调，短期关注业绩支撑股 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 受特朗普政府关税政策升级、经济衰退预期升温，以及美联储降息预期的反 复等利空因素的影响，美股"黑色星期一"，周一道琼斯指数暴跌 2.08%，纳斯达 克指数重挫 4%，受此影响，全球资本市场遭遇波动。不过，虽然周二沪深三大指 数跳空低开，但 A 股逆势表现下体现出整体的稳定和韧性，三大指数尾盘均红盘 报收。盘面上看，航天航空、农林牧渔等板块逆势走强，内部结构性机会表现不 错。 因此，美股暴跌对 A 股的短期影响主要集中在情绪层面，实际影响有限。中 国经济处于新旧动能转换期，政策储备丰富。财政积极托底经济（今年赤字率拟 按 4%左右安排，比上年提高 1 个百分点。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元， 比上年增加 5000 亿元。合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面，拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，比上年增加 3000 亿元），为市场稳定运行筑牢根基。市场震荡慢牛的主基调没变。 不过，鉴 ...

策 略 晨 报 2 月通胀数据疲软，A 股市场窄幅震荡，短期回踩不改中期向好格局 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的 ...

【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，虽然近期指数表现较好，但仍有多方扰动。首先，外部美联 储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好；其次，技术面上， 沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期密集成交区间的重要阻力，能否突破这一区域将 成为市场的重要看点；最后，财报季的业绩分化。3 月中下旬至 4 月进入年报密 集披露期，企业盈利兑现度将成为试金石。当前市场对 AI 板块的估值已反映预 期，但部分标的业绩能否匹配高估值存在不确定性，需警惕回调风险。消费、医 药等现金流稳定的板块可能因防御属性受到青睐。 市场走势如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，两市成交额明显萎缩， 医药等防御性板块走强，人工智能概念股大面积调整。除了周一晨报提醒的因素 之外，市场出现分歧可能还有通胀数据疲软引发的经济预期压力。2 月通胀数据 低于预期，反映出内需修复仍存在不确定性。尽管政策面持续释放稳增长信号， 但通胀低迷可能压制企业盈利预期，数据公布后，人民币汇率承压，加剧了短期 市场波动。因此，虽然短期市场可能面临估值压力以及数据波动预期的变化，但 在多方支撑和提振下，市场中期向好的逻辑和趋势未变，即便市场出现阶段的震 荡调整或仍是整体上 ...

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 周 报 2025 年 3 月 10 日 政策利好逐步落地及经济修复下,短期如有震荡回撤也是上行中的洗盘 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点: 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数震荡,盘面上看,有色、工程机械等传统板块表现良好 下,科技股高位震荡回落,拖累指数整体下跌。本周重要会议闭幕,市场对政策 和财报关注度提升,短期或迎来关键时刻。多方支撑和提振下,市场仍有向好的 基础和提振的动力,如震荡中回撤,可考虑低吸和适当加仓。 回顾近期市场,指数表现较好,主要还是政策预期的不断强化。一方面,两 会政策利好兑现。两会报告明确 5%的经济增长目标,财政赤字率上调至 4%,货 币政策保持适度宽松,专项债规模扩大至 4.4 万亿元;另一方面,产业政策聚焦 新质生产力,科技板块持续获得资金追捧,成为市场主线。 尽管如此,短期仍有扰动。首先,外部美联储降息节奏不确定性、中美关税 博弈或阶段性压制风险偏好;其次,技术面上,沪深三大指数上方可能面临前期 密集成 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to experience upward momentum supported by policy implementation and economic recovery, despite potential short-term fluctuations [2][19][21] - Recent market performance has been driven by strengthened policy expectations, with the government setting a GDP growth target of 5% and increasing the fiscal deficit ratio to 4% [2][7][19] - The technology sector continues to attract significant investment, becoming a market focus, while traditional sectors like materials and engineering machinery also show strong performance [2][19][21] Group 2 - The aerospace and defense sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic advancements in aircraft manufacturing [10][11] - The report notes a significant increase in the lithium resource reserves in Sichuan, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [11] - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see increased demand due to policies promoting equipment upgrades and environmental considerations [12] Group 3 - The 6G concept stocks are gaining traction, supported by government initiatives to foster emerging industries and technological advancements [13] - The robotics industry is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with expected growth driven by policy support and increasing demand for automation [14] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant investments anticipated in AI applications and related hardware, indicating a shift towards more fundamental investment strategies [15][16] Group 4 - The renewable energy sector, including battery and solar industries, is expected to rebound as demand continues to grow in line with national carbon neutrality goals [17] - The healthcare sector is also showing signs of recovery, with potential for growth driven by demographic trends and previous market corrections [18]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Viewpoints - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing "technological self-reliance" and "expanding domestic demand" as dual drivers [3][12]. - Fiscal targets include a budget deficit rate of around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [3][12]. - The report highlights significant investments in new industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and future industries like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G [3][12]. - The market is expected to see a broad recovery with technology stocks leading the way, supported by government policies and increased funding for infrastructure and equipment updates [4][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On a recent Thursday, the market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 2% and the CSI 50 index rising by 3.48% [4][7]. - The AI sector, including AI smart bodies and related stocks, experienced significant gains, driven by government support for technological innovation [4][8]. Sector Performance - The AI theme stocks surged, with notable increases in AI-related companies following the government's push for new productivity [8][9]. - The cultural media sector also saw substantial growth, particularly in gaming and interactive media, with a reported increase of 42.75% in the first half of 2023 [9][11]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a shift in market performance towards a broader participation across sectors, with specific focus on three main investment lines: self-controlled sectors (robotics, semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, affordable consumer goods), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises) [4][13].

Core Views - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing "technological self-reliance" and "expanding domestic demand" as dual drivers of the economy [3][12] - Fiscal targets include a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [3][12] - The report outlines plans for 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, with a focus on promoting new industries such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and future industries like biomanufacturing and quantum technology [3][12] Market Overview - On a recent Thursday, the A-share market saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.48%, driven by strong performances in technology stocks, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors [4][13] - The market's positive sentiment is attributed to government policies that clear doubts about the long-term development of the technology sector, providing clear investment directions [4][13] - The overall market showed signs of recovery, with increased trading volumes and a broad-based rally across various sectors, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [7][13] Sector Analysis - The AI sector experienced substantial growth, with stocks related to AI technologies and applications seeing significant price increases, driven by advancements in AI models and government support for new productivity [8][12] - The cultural media sector also performed well, particularly in gaming and interactive media, with a noted increase in market activity following a prolonged period of low valuations [9][11] - The report highlights the potential for AI to lead a new wave of technological revolution, with investment opportunities expanding into AI applications as the industry matures [8][12] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on three main lines: self-controlled sectors (robotics, semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, affordable consumer goods), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises) [4][13] - The report suggests that as policy details from the recent meetings are implemented, the A-share market's technology stock rally may broaden to include more sectors, indicating a potential for widespread market participation [4][13]

2025 年 3 月 6 日 英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 重要会议释放积极信号,但短期多方扰动因素仍在 观点: 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数集体飘红。正在召开的全国两会释放积极信号。政府工作 报告明确 2025 年 GDP 增长目标为 5%左右,强调"科技自立自强"与"扩大内需"双 轮驱动。财政目标方面,今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排,比上年提高 1个百分点。 政府投资方面,拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4 万亿元,比上年增加 5000亿元。 合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元,比上年增加 2.9 万亿元。特别国债方面, 拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元,比上年增加 3000亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000 亿元。促进消费方面,安排超长期特别国债 3000 亿元支持消费品以旧换新。住 房目标方面,持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。继续做好保交房工作,有效防 范房企债务违约风险。新质生产力方面,推动商业航天、低空经济等新兴产业安 全健康发展。培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来产业。加快制造业 数字化转型。大力发展智能网联新能源汽车、人工智能手机和电脑、智能机器 ...