1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场聚焦印度泰国产量改善，原糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 17.02 | 16.45 | -3.35% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.05 | 67.64 | -0.60% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-17 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6020.0 | 6030.0 | 0.17% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5835.0 | 5865.0 | 0.5 ...

[Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 期货研究报告 商品研究 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 接近支撑位 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【印尼华星镍业年产 4 万吨高冰镍项目取得进展】2025 年 6 月 14 日，分公司承建的华星镍业(印尼)有限公司年产 4 万吨金属高冰项 目在业主、监理共同见证下顺利完成 101 原料堆棚首根钢柱吊装作业，标 志着备料系统装置正式进入主体钢结构施工的全新阶段。项目位于印尼东 南苏拉维西省科拉卡县波马拉镇 IPIP 工业园。分公司承建内容包括:五个 区域:100(备料系统)、200(冶炼区域)、300(辅助工程)、500(冶炼厂给排 水系统)、600(公辅工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the escalation of the Middle - East situation on the medium - and long - term coking coal price is unclear. Domestically, the May social financing performance was weaker than expected, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the social retail growth rate increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting prices. The government is promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and the steel industry's production reduction plan is to be implemented but the timing is uncertain [4] - In the coking coal market, under safety and environmental disturbances, production at mines and coal washeries has decreased significantly, but inventories are still rising. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved [5] - The market reacted positively to the weak May economic data, indicating that as valuations are extremely low, reverse trading is increasing and a bottom is gradually forming [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 789.5 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan). The basis is 90.5 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Supply - Mines and coal washeries have reduced production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.7% (down 0.94), and the operating rate of 110 coal washeries is 57.36% (down 3.23) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories are increasing, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 486.04 million tons (up 5.31 million tons), and that of coal washeries is 251.47 million tons (up 6.41 million tons). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.98 million tons (up 3.07 million tons), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 669.53 million tons (down 21 million tons). Port inventories are 312.02 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 1365.5 yuan/ton (down 5.5 yuan). The basis is - 0 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (down 4.5 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, and demand has remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.96% (down 0.94), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.58% (down 0.07), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.61 million tons (down 0.19 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have shifted from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventories have continued to decline. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 87.31 million tons (down 1.1 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 642.84 million tons (down 2.96 million tons), and port inventories are 203.09 million tons (down 11.06 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add to the position after confirming the bottom [6]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【伦敦金属交易所铜库存锐减，买方面临供应吃紧】据 报道，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜买方面临供应吃紧，随着交易员争夺交易 所仓库中不断下降的铜库存，现货铜价飙升。周二，将在一天内到期的合 约较次日到期合约一度溢价每吨 36 美元，为 2021 年历史性供应吃紧以来 最阔。尽管这一所谓的明日/次日价差临近收盘出现回落，但其他中长期限 价差继续收紧。现货合约价格飙升，即所谓的现货升水，表明交易所仓库 中的库存不足以满足交易商的需求。此前，LME 可交割库存今年已减少 80%。（华尔街见闻） 品种逻辑:宏观角 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as "High-level consolidation, bearish in the future" [1] - The recommended strategy is to "Wait and see for now, and short later" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is trading the weakening of the US economy, with signs of economic decline emerging. Although the copper fundamentals currently have some support, they are showing signs of weakening. The market's trading logic has changed again, and concerns about overseas miners suppressing long-term processing fees are relatively strong, reinforcing the long position's bet on copper shortage. In the short term, the downside space for copper prices may be limited, and they are expected to remain at a high level. However, due to weakening demand and lack of macro confidence, it is difficult for copper prices to continue rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The open-pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of WANXIANG MINING CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., has officially started. This is the first large-scale copper mine project restarted since the suspension of copper mining in 2021, marking that WANXIANG MINING has entered the era of "simultaneous development of gold and copper" again. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit growth point for WANXIANG MINING [2] Variety Logic Macro Perspective - The US CPI data is lower than market expectations, and the market starts to trade the weakening of the US economy. In terms of non-farm employment, although it is higher than the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the short-term employment diffusion index has declined, indicating that although the employment market is still strong at present, there is a high risk of decline in the future. At the same time, the revised US GDP still shows negative growth, and overall, the economic weakening has begun to emerge [2] Fundamentals - **Supply Side**: The import copper concentrate processing fee of smelters is -$43.91 per dry ton, and the spot processing fee has stabilized but is still in a deep inversion state. Overseas miners are seeking to negotiate with Chinese smelters to lower the long-term processing fee, and smelters are under great pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production cut actions in the future [2] - **Demand Side**: The production of copper rods, copper tubes, etc. has reached the high level of the same period in previous years, but the downstream is gradually entering the off-season [2] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, and short copper later [2][3]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 镍矿价格小幅反弹 底部支撑转强 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary] 【印尼 Harita Nickel 已投产 12 条生产线，全力生产镍 铁】Harita Nickel 公司位于北马鲁古省 Halmahera Selatan 省奥比岛 (PulauObi)的镍加工厂。目前，Trimegah Bangun Persada(Harita Nickel) 公司已拥有 12 条采用旋转窑炉(RKEF)技术的冶炼生产线。从 Harita Nickel 公司发布的信息记载，Harita Nickel 公司于 201 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024/25 sugar production season has ended successfully. As of the end of May, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan benefits sugarcane growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also improving. Globally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited impact from Brazil's drought, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in China's cotton - growing areas since sowing are suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is at the fifth true leaf to squaring stage. The development period of most cotton is 3 to 15 days earlier than in previous years. Weather's impact on yield per unit needs continuous attention [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Market Quotes**: On June 14 - 15, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $67.9, also with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 6035.0 to 6020.0, a - 0.25% change; in Kunming, it dropped from 5855.0 to 5835.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.07% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 14700.0 to 14800.0, a 0.68% change [3] - **Spreads**: All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton futures contracts from June 14 - 15, 2025, remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Price, Profit, and Other Data - **Import Price**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA dropped from 78.05 to 77.8, a - 0.32% change [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1638.0 from June 12 - 13, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5700 was 0.0843, and the historical volatility of SR509 was 8.94; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 was 0.0829. The implied volatility of CF509C13400 was 0.097, and the historical volatility of CF509 was 12.67; the implied volatility of CF509P13400 was 0.0959 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 29116.0 to 28736.0, a - 1.31% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10769.0 to 10753.0, a - 0.15% change [3]