Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - In the sugar market, the 2024/25 sugar production season has ended. China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the previous year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing areas are beneficial for future production. Internationally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited drought impact in Brazil, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1]. - In the cotton market, due to US - imposed tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton - growing areas are suitable for growth, and most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days ahead of previous years. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Sugar**: The price of US sugar rose from $15.56 on July 2, 2025, to $16.37 on July 3, 2025, with a growth rate of 5.21%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6070 yuan to 6060 yuan, a decline of 0.16%, and in Kunming, it decreased from 5895 yuan to 5880 yuan, a decline of 0.25% [3]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased from $68.64 on July 2, 2025, to $68.43 on July 3, 2025, with a decline of 0.31%. The cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, with a growth rate of 0.26%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 15200 yuan to 15150 yuan, a decline of 0.33% [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar**: The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, and the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 all showed different degrees of change, with the basis of contract 09 having the largest decline of 12.40% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spreads CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 also changed, with the basis of contract 01 having the largest growth rate of 5.58% [3]. Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 78.85 to 79.4, with a growth rate of 0.70% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit decreased from 1802 yuan to 1620.5 yuan, a decline of 10.07% [3]. - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of sugar and cotton option contracts and the historical volatility of their underlying futures are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23575 to 23520, a decline of 0.23%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10190 to 10140, a decline of 0.49% [3]. Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange and a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 15.56 | 16.37 | 5.21% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.64 | 68.43 | -0.31% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6060.0 | -0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5895.0 | 5880.0 | -0.25% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.26% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 15200.0 | 15150.0 | -0. ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 4 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货提涨，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 934 元/吨(-0)，现货持续提涨。活跃合约报 856 元/吨(+12.5)。基差 98 元/吨(-12.5)，9-1 月差-58 元/吨（-10）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 83. 28%（+1.34），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 59.72%(+0.45)。230 家独立焦企生产率报 7 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 煤焦大幅上行，供改预期或有反复，多单择机加仓 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 3 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货企稳，期货反弹。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)，部分地区现货小幅提涨。活跃 合约报 843.5 元/吨(+29)。基差 44.5 元/吨(-29)，9-1 月差-48 元/吨（-5.5）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 82.48%（-2.01），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 5 ...

商品研究 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长。目前，新疆大部分地 区的棉花已进入现蕾期，而黄河和长江流域的棉花则处于第五真叶至现蕾 期。大多数棉花的发育期比往年提前了 3 到 15 天，后续需要持续关注天气 对单产的影响。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏强 焦煤——震荡 供改预期升温，盘面减仓下行，逢低做多 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 2 日 报告内容摘要: 焦煤： 现货企稳，期货回落。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)，部分地区现货小幅提涨。活跃 合约报 814.5 元/吨(-10.5)。基差 73.5 元/吨(+10.5)，9-1 月差-42.5 元/吨（-6.5）。 供给收缩，需求小幅下调。523 家矿山开工率报 82.48%（-2.01），110 家洗煤厂 开工率报 59.1%(-2.24)。230 家独 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 产量预期强劲，原糖持续承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 主产国预期产量强劲，原糖承压 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-01 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for both coking coal and coke [1][5] Core Viewpoints - With the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and the signing of a trade agreement between China and the US, external risks are easing, and market sentiment is warming up. However, domestic economic data is below expectations, and the market may speculate on the Political Bureau meeting at the end of July. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills are reluctant to cut production due to acceptable profits [4] - For coking coal, under the influence of safety inspections, mines and coal washing plants have reduced production, and the supply contraction has affected the inventory. The fundamentals are showing positive factors. But after the safety inspections end and mines resume production, the spot acceptance and market reaction need to be observed. The J09 contract is recommended to add positions after the coking coal correction ends, and go long on coking coal at low prices after the correction [4][5] - For coke, as coking coal stabilizes, the cost center moves up, providing strong support. The blast furnace profit remains high, and the molten iron output increases slightly, with the supply - demand situation continuing to improve [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal washing plants decreased to 82.48% (-2.01) and 59.1% (-2.24) respectively. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16) [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal washing plants reduced inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises increased inventory. The port inventory decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 825 yuan/ton (-22.5). The basis was 63 yuan/ton (+22.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -36 yuan/ton (+6.5) [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased to 90.83% (+0.04), and the daily average molten iron output was 242.29 million tons (+0.11) [3] Inventory - The inventory of the entire industrial chain decreased, with the inventory of 230 coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreasing [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 1404 yuan/ton (-17.5). The basis was -92 yuan/ton (+17.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -38.5 yuan/ton (+1.5) [3]