| 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 需求前景忧虑，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-13 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is "oscillation with a weakening bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottoming. The rumored crude steel production limit is set at around 30 million tons, which will change the long - short balance in the black sector [4] - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory overstock and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key is to monitor the signals of mine - end active production cuts or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost side is expected to support rather than drag down the price, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits will drive the price up [5] - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of a short - seller counter - attack. Once the price drops again, it may lead to a double - kill situation for both long and short positions [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (- 15), and the active contract is reported at 766.5 yuan/ton (- 17). The basis is 131.5 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the September - January spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 have declined slightly. The开工率 of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (- 2.96), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is reported at 60.59% (- 0.96) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.4753 million tons (+ 370,800), and that of coal - washing plants is 2.1474 million tons (+ 114,800). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9875 million tons (+ 75,400), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 7.3796 million tons (- 146,000). The port inventory is 3.0156 million tons (- 45,300) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (- 0), and the active contract is reported at 1,328.5 yuan/ton (- 27.5). The basis is 37 yuan/ton (+ 27.5), and the September - January spread is - 19.5 yuan/ton (- 2) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 74.93% (- 0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.436 million tons (- 11,700) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 88,410 tons (+ 10,080), that of 247 steel mills is 645,800 tons (- 9,130), and the port inventory is 214,150 tons (- 3,030) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long order for the J09 contract and wait to increase the position after confirming the market bottom [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for coke is "sideways" [1]. - The rating for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and China's monetary policy continues to strengthen. The real - estate policy may accelerate the industry's bottom - hitting process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy could change the market's long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory topping and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key signals to watch are mine - end active or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke is likely to provide support, and factors like cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits could drive up the price of coke [5]. - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of short - sellers pushing prices down again. The market bottom can be confirmed by significant position reduction with rapid price decline or mine - end production cuts. Short - term advice is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 decreased slightly, with 523 mines reporting an 86.3%开工率 (-2.96) and 110 coal - washing plants reporting a 60.59%开工率 (-0.96). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 523 mines having 447.53 million tons of clean coal inventory (+37.08) and coal - washing plants having 214.74 million tons of clean coal inventory (+11.48). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 798.75 million tons of inventory (+7.54), 230 coking enterprises having 737.96 million tons of inventory (-14.6), and port inventory at 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 878 yuan/ton (-15), the active contract was at 783.5 yuan/ton (-1.5), the basis was 114.5 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -9.5 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 230 coking enterprises having 88.41 million tons of inventory (+10.08). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 645.8 million tons of inventory (-9.13) and port inventory at 214.15 million tons (-3.03) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract was at 1356 yuan/ton (+7), the basis was 10 yuan/ton (-7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -17.5 yuan/ton (-2) [3].

商品研究 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke - Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. Sino - US trade frictions have less impact on prices, China's monetary policy continues to strengthen, real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottom - out process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy may change the long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory and environmental restrictions, and attention should be paid to signals of active or administrative production cuts at the mine end. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost end will provide support, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction can drive the price up [5]. - Yesterday, the black sector had a deep V - shaped market affected by Sino - US negotiation news. Coking coal is the main battlefield of long - short game. Short - term J09 long positions can be held lightly and additional positions can be added after the market bottom is confirmed [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 decreased slightly, while the productivity of independent coking enterprises was basically flat. 523 mines had an开工率 of 86.3% (- 2.96), 110 coal - washing plants had an开工率 of 60.59% (- 0.96), and 230 independent coking enterprises had a productivity of 74.93% (- 0.15) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 523 mines had a clean coal inventory of 447.53 million tons (+ 37.08), coal - washing plants had a clean coal inventory of 214.74 million tons (+ 11.48), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 798.75 million tons (+ 7.54), 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 737.96 million tons (- 14.6), and port inventory was 301.56 million tons (- 4.53) [2] Spot Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased, while futures prices rebounded. Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 893 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 785 yuan/ton (+ 5), the basis was 128 yuan/ton (- 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Supply was flat, and demand reached its peak and declined. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.93% (- 0.15), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.436 million tons (- 1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 88.41 million tons (+ 10.08), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 645.8 million tons (- 9.13), and port inventory was 214.15 million tons (- 3.03) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The third round of spot price cuts was implemented, and futures prices rebounded. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 1349 yuan/ton (+ 10), the basis was 17 yuan/ton (- 10), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 15.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [3]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 需求相对疲软，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 PPI 仍未止跌，焦煤增仓下行，等待二次触底 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 10 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 1. 五月份，中国 CPI 同比下降 0.1%，降幅与上月持平，PPI 同比下降 3.3%，降幅比 上月扩大 0.6 个百分点。 现货第三轮提降落地，期货走平。天津港准一级焦报 1270 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 1339 元/吨(-11.5)。基差 26.59 元/吨(+11.5)，9-1 月差-21 元/吨(+1.5 ...

商品研究 期货研究报告 气候湿润有利甘蔗生长，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-10 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元阶段性走强，白糖短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-09 报告内容摘要: 免责声明 本报告由信达期货有限公司（以下简称"信达期货"）制作及发布。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 成本端仍有坍塌可能 维持区间滚动做空 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 9 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary] 【美联储传声筒：对美联储而言，较慢的就业增长可能并 不预示经济疲软】"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos 发文称，美联储官员表 示，在评估劳动力需求是否放缓上，他们可能更关注失业率而非就业增长。 原因在于，他们预计，随着边境管控收紧导致可供工作的人数减少，就业 增长自然将放缓。当就业增长放缓而失业率保持稳定时，可能表明劳动力 供给下降的速度快于需求下降的速度。美联储的底线是：只要失业率保持 在当前水平，美联储不会必然对就业增长放 ...