-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 关税利好下，煤焦冲高回落，短期仍偏弱 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 13 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈联合声明发布，双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，双方取消 4 月 7 号之后加征的关税，同时暂停实施 24%的对等关税。双方建立机制，继续就经贸 关系进行协商。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货偏弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1015 元/吨(-5)。活跃合约报 889.5 元/吨(+12)。 基差 145.5 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper is rated as high-level consolidation in the short term and bearish in the medium term [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, minor positive factors support the high-level consolidation of copper prices; in the medium term, the weakening fundamentals combined with a generally pessimistic macro - environment will cause the center of gravity of Shanghai copper to decline [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In April, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market reached 905,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 33.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.7%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 3.324 million units, a growth of 35.7%. In April, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicles was 51.5%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - As of the close on May 9th, the weekly changes were as follows: Shanghai copper closed at 77,450 yuan/ton (+0.30%), London copper closed at $9,445.5/ton (+0.15%), New York copper closed at $4.6045/pound (-1.05%), the premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 80 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) reached $49.19/ton. The social inventory was 120,100 tons, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 19,200 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [1] 3.3 News - The Sino - US talks have ended and reached important consensus, which may bring short - term positive sentiment to the market [2] 3.4 Trading Logic - **Macro - aspect**: In the short term, there are positive factors. The market expects the tariff issue to be alleviated, and domestic policies strongly support consumption, boosting market confidence. In the medium and long term, the global economic situation is not optimistic, and the US debt problem remains a challenge [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is currently loose, with the cumulative output of smelters from January to April increasing by 10.63% year - on - year and stable copper ore imports. However, the output in April was basically the same as that in March, and there will be concentrated maintenance later, so the supply increase is expected to decline. The processing fee for imported copper ore by smelters has continuously dropped to -$43.11/ton dry. If it touches the pressure line of smelters, it may trigger passive production cuts. The demand for copper rods, copper tubes, etc. is currently supported, but the operating rate has shown a downward trend, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the premium of Shanghai copper has gradually narrowed [3] - **Comex - lme Spread**: It has shrunk to $705.5/ton and may drive the single - side copper price to decline [3] 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the future [4]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——观望 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 菲律宾再传禁矿消息 可靠度众说纷纭 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【菲律宾禁镍出口 印尼冶炼业恐陷"原料荒"】菲律宾政府 计划自 2025 年 6 月起实施镍矿出口禁令，预计将重创印尼镍冶炼产业。印 尼镍矿协会（APNI）矿业顾问委员会成员 Djoko Widajatno5 月 7 日表示， 尽管印尼是全球最大镍生产国，但国内多家冶炼厂仍依赖菲律宾镍矿供应， 尤其是对本土日渐稀缺的高品位镍矿。这种依赖性使莫罗瓦利、韦达湾等 工业园区的冶炼厂面临供应链断裂风险。2024 年印尼从菲律宾进口约 1000 万吨 ...

商品研究 期货研究报告 市场静待 USDA 报告，棉花保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-12 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | - ...

单击此处编辑母版标题样式 • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第二级 −需求旺季已过 供应仍有增量 信达期货沪锌周报 始于信 达于行 诚信 融合 创新 卓越 Integrity Integration Innovation Excellence 信 达 期 货 研 究 所 ： 楼 家 豪 交 易 咨 询 从 业 证 书 号 ： Z 0 0 1 8 4 2 4 日 期 ： 2025 年 5 月 1 1 日 • 第三级 • 第四级 • 第五级 2025/5/9 1 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 1 供需变化 02 └ ̚ 01 周度市场 └ ̚ 03 库存比价 └ ̚ • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第二级 • 第三级 • 第四级 • 第五级 2025/5/9 2 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 2 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 • 编辑母版文本样式 • 第五级 周度市场 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点与建议 02 市场数据 • 第二级 • 第三级 • 第四级 2025/5/9 3 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 3 观点与建议 单击此处编辑母版标题样式 主要观点： 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款 4 2025/5/ ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元走强压制国际棉价，短期震荡为主 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-09 [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 ...

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 昨日高开低走，短期仍需等待回踩 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 05 月 08 日 核心逻辑小结： 近期宏观信息较多，但整体符合预期，其中美国最新一期就业数据好于市场 预期，美联储表态鸽派，令欧美股指普遍呈现上涨态势。此外，中美贸易关 系有阶段性缓和迹象，这使得国际避险情绪在假期内有所降温。A 股方面， 节前股指出现了小幅回调，但回调幅度弱于预期，代表资金交易热度尚未完 全消退。另一方面，4 月公布的经济数据与财报业绩表明股指盈利周期继续 处于筑底阶段，伴随着 zzj 等政策预期的落地，后续市场情绪将面临一段空 窗期。因此，5 月股指震荡市依旧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, sugar production volume is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $17.41 to $17.14, a decline of 1.55%; the price of US cotton decreased from $67.82 to $67.4, a decline of 0.62% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,170 yuan to 6,160 yuan, a decline of 0.16%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,020 yuan to 6,015 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.09%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 13,950 yuan to 13,850 yuan, a decline of 0.72% [3] - **Spread Data**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, while some sugar basis spreads showed an increase and some showed a decrease [3] Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained at $80 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,401.5 from May 6 - 7, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5900 is 0.1029, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 8.99; the implied volatility of SR509P5900 is 0.0958. The implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1311, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.9; the implied volatility of CF509P12800 is 0.1314 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 6 - 7, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 28,629 to 30,301, a growth of 5.84%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,116 to 11,172, a growth of 0.50% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【因贸易战，泰克考虑其美国精矿其他出口方案】据外媒， 在中国对美国商品征收新一轮报复性关税后，泰克旗下从阿拉斯加发往中 国的 Red Dog 矿山的铅锌精矿成了中美贸易冲突的"牺牲品"。据悉，泰克 高层第一时间与中国客户进行了沟通，但买家表示，不愿意为即将发运的 Red Dog 货品支付完整的关税。Teck 的商务团队近期已飞往中国与主要客 户重新谈判销售合同，讨论了包含"用来自旗下其他矿山或第三方的锌精 矿替换 Red Dog 产出"等方案。泰克 CEO Jonathan Price 于 4 月 24 日的 财报电话会议上表示，中方对美国进口产品施加的关税水平的确带来了供 应挑战，商务团队正在评估多种可行方案，不排除调整供货地转向其他市 场。但 Red Dog 每年只会在夏季海冰融化后的 4 个月内将全年产量发出， 所以泰克仍有时间敲定解决方案，其精矿需求强劲且有广泛的客户基础。 供应：矿企利润受到关税政策影响，前期锌锭价格下跌使得拥有锌锭所 有权的矿企利润大幅收缩，单吨利润从 6000 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 焦煤： 现货弱稳，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1040 元/吨(-0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。九月合约报 911.5 元/吨(-19)。基差 138.5 元/吨(+19)，9-1 月差-48 元/吨（+1.5）。 供给走平，需求继续上行。110 家洗煤厂开工率报 62.97%(-0.04)，基本持平。230 家独立焦企生产率报 75.43%(+0.16)，需求继续上行。 上游累库，下游去库。523 家矿山精煤库存 358.52 万吨(+3.92)，原煤库存 5 ...