Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will also exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On July 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.06% from 16.56 to 16.55 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.01% from 68.57 to 68.56 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, the price of sugar in Kunming remained unchanged at 5905.0, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.20% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15300.0 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 10.00% from 50.0 to 55.0, SR05 - 09 increased by 4.61% from - 217.0 to - 227.0, SR09 - 01 increased by 2.99% from 167.0 to 172.0, CF01 - 05 decreased by 14.29% from 35.0 to 30.0, CF05 - 09 increased by 138.46% from - 65.0 to - 155.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 316.67% from 30.0 to 125.0 [3]. - **Basis**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 0.37% from 270.0 to 269.0, the basis of sugar 05 increased by 1.25% from 320.0 to 324.0, the basis of sugar 09 decreased by 5.83% from 103.0 to 97.0, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 5.06% from 1482.0 to 1407.0, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 5.27% from 1517.0 to 1437.0, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 11.71% from 1452.0 to 1282.0 [3]. - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.75 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1590.0 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0744, with the futures underlying SR509 and a historical volatility of 7.29; the implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0751; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1206, with the futures underlying CF509 and a historical volatility of 8.48; the implied volatility of CF509P14000 is 0.1118 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 15 to 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.38% from 22602.0 to 22289.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.75% from 9716.0 to 9643.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale and reputable futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rumor of crude steel production restrictions has boosted the sentiment of the sector, and coal and coke are oscillating. The market tends to trade policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The social financing data in June exceeded expectations, and the short - term bullish sentiment remains strong. However, the possible implementation of steel production control may suppress the price increase of coal and coke spot, but it may also drive the overall repair of industrial chain profits. Currently, coking coal faces resistance after basis repair and may have short - term correction pressure [1][4][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month, with significant increases in government and corporate financing [1] 3.2 Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of coking coal increased, while the futures price oscillated downward. The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was 950 yuan/ton, the active contract was 897 yuan/ton (-14.5), the basis was 73 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production resumed, but the intensity was lower than expected. The demand contracted. The operating rate of 523 mines was 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal washing plants was 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 377.18 million tons (-32.43), that of coal washing plants was 197.07 million tons (-17.91), that of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises was 752.44 million tons (+36), and the port inventory was 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] 3.3 Coke - **Spot and Futures**: There is an expectation of spot price increase, and the futures price oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, and some steel mills in Tianjin accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract was 1494.5 yuan/ton (-19.5), the basis was -183 yuan/ton (+19.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -44 yuan/ton (+2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand declined, but there was still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72% (-0.48), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory decreased, and downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills was 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and the port inventory was 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs to July 31. The market's attitude towards tariffs is mainly risk - prevention without further pricing. Domestically, the anti - involution campaign continues to develop, and the social financing data in June exceeded expectations. For coking coal, mine production resumed but was less than expected, and the spot trading volume reached a new high this year. For coke, some steel mills accepted a 50 - yuan/ton spot price increase. The blast furnace profit remained at around 180 yuan. The rumor of crude steel production restrictions increased, and the pig iron output declined, but the supply and demand of coke remained tight. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] Core Viewpoints - The base spread repair is nearing its end, and coal and coke are oscillating [1] - The market tends to trade on policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The short - term bullish sentiment remains strong [5] - For coking coal, although mine production is increasing, downstream restocking enthusiasm persists. For coke, the supply - demand gap remains despite a decline in both supply and demand, and industry chain profits are expected to transfer from steel to furnace materials [5] - It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: Spot prices are rising, while futures are oscillating. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 950 yuan/ton (+23), and the active contract is 911.5 yuan/ton (-8.5). The base spread is 58.5 yuan/ton (+31.5), and the September - January spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-7) [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Mine production is resuming, while demand is contracting. The operating rate of 523 mines is 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 377.18 million tons (-32.43), and that of coal - washing plants is 197.07 million tons (-17.91). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises is 752.44 (+36), and port inventory is 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures**: Spot price increases have partially taken effect, and futures are rising. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills in Tianjin have accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract is 1514 yuan/ton (-11). The base spread is - 202 yuan/ton (+11), and the September - January spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton (-2.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand have declined, but the gap remains. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.3981 million tons (-1.04) [3] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills is 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and port inventory is 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] Strategy and Market Environment - **Tariff and Policy**: Trump extended the reciprocal tariff suspension period to July 31. China's reciprocal tariffs will start on August 12. The market is mainly focused on risk prevention regarding tariffs [4] - **Social Financing**: In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month [1] - **Anti - Involution**: The anti - involution campaign is ongoing, and this round of capacity reduction may be more moderate and longer - term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring in Guangxi, leading to unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia sugar beet production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases. Internationally, it is necessary to continue monitoring the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. In July, Xinjiang is expected to have persistently high temperatures and more high - temperature days than usual, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - The price of US sugar increased from $16.31 on July 14, 2025, to $16.56 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.53% [3]. - The price of US cotton rose from $68.11 on July 14, 2025, to $68.57 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.68% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning remained at 6060.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming stayed at 5905.0 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 on July 14, 2025, to 3280 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.05% [3]. - The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15250.0 on July 14, 2025, to 15300.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.33% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - The SR01 - 05 spread decreased from 57.0 on July 14, 2025, to 50.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 12.28% [3]. - The SR05 - 09 spread increased from - 235.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 217.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 7.66% [3]. - The SR09 - 01 spread decreased from 178.0 on July 14, 2025, to 167.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 6.18% [3]. - The CF01 - 05 spread increased from 25.0 on July 14, 2025, to 35.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 40.00% [3]. - The CF05 - 09 spread increased from - 85.0 on July 14, 2025, to - 65.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 23.53% [3]. - The CF09 - 01 spread decreased from 60.0 on July 14, 2025, to 30.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 50.00% [3]. - The sugar 01 basis increased from 266.0 on July 14, 2025, to 270.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 1.50% [3]. - The sugar 05 basis decreased from 323.0 on July 14, 2025, to 320.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of - 0.93% [3]. - The sugar 09 basis increased from 88.0 on July 14, 2025, to 103.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 17.05% [3]. - The cotton 01 basis increased from 1480.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1482.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.14% [3]. - The cotton 05 basis increased from 1505.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1517.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.80% [3]. - The cotton 09 basis increased from 1420.0 on July 14, 2025, to 1452.0 on July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 2.25% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.05 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1656.5 from July 14 to July 15, 2025, with a growth rate of 0.00% [3]. 3.1.6 Options - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.075, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.53 [3]. - The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0743 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0932, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 8.31 [3]. - The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0994 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22716.0 on July 14, 2025, to 22602.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.50% [3]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9807.0 on July 14, 2025, to 9716.0 on July 15, 2025, with a decline rate of 0.93% [3]. 3.2 Company Information - Report research is carried out by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd, a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd, with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9]. - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "oscillation", and the rating for cotton is also "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number being shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention and control. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, with more high - temperature days than the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: From July 13th to July 14th, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.56 dollars to 16.31 dollars, a decline of 1.51%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.42 dollars to 68.11 dollars, an increase of 1.02% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.19%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, an increase of 0.33% [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar, SR01 - 05 increased by 5.56%, SR05 - 09 remained unchanged, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.66%. For cotton, CF01 - 05 increased by 25.00%, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 7.69% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of sugar decreased, with sugar 01 basis decreasing by 3.62%, sugar 05 basis decreasing by 2.12%, and sugar 09 basis decreasing by 7.37%. The basis of cotton increased, with cotton 01 basis increasing by 2.35%, cotton 05 basis increasing by 2.66%, and cotton 09 basis increasing by 2.82% [3] Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0733, and its futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.52. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0726. The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0963, and its futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.35. The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0987 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22744.0 to 22716.0, a decrease of 0.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9850.0 to 9807.0, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Company Information - Report research's company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in various futures exchanges and associations [2][9]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——看涨 焦煤——看涨 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 矿端继续去库，焦炭提涨，关注平水处阻力 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 特朗普向 25 个贸易伙伴发出关税函，其中加拿大（35%）、墨西哥（30%）、欧 盟（30%）以上关税均于 8 月 1 日生效。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货上行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 927 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 913 元/吨(+16)。 基差 34 元/吨(-16)，9-1 月差-33 元/吨（+4.5）。 焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] - Cotton: Neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of -5% to +5% [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Drought in Guangxi has affected the emergence and early growth of sugarcane, with shorter and fewer plants compared to the same period last year. Sugar beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to recent heavy rainfall. Internationally, attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-growing regions in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. High temperatures in Xinjiang in July pose a risk of heat damage to cotton. Cotton inventories are decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Attention should be paid to weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary External Quotes - US Sugar: The price remained unchanged at $16.56 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] - US Cotton: The price remained unchanged at $67.42 from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price increased from 6050.0 to 6060.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5895.0 to 5905.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.17% change [3] - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 to 3280 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.46% change [3] - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15150.0 to 15200.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.33% change [3] Spread Overview - All sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from July 12 to July 13, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Prices - Cotton CotlookA: The price decreased from 78.6 to 78.45 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.19% change [3] Profit Margins - Sugar Import Profit: The profit remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 10 to July 11, with a 0.00% change [3] Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility was 0.0764, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR509 was 7.55 [3] - SR509P5800: Implied volatility was 0.0765 [3] - CF509C13800: Implied volatility was 0.0925, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF509 was 8.58 [3] - CF509P13800: Implied volatility was 0.0942 [3] Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 22934.0 to 22744.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.83% change [3] - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9882.0 to 9850.0 from July 10 to July 11, with a -0.32% change [3] Company Information - Name: Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. [2] - Address: 19 - 20th Floor, Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou [2] - Postal Code: 311200 [2] - Company Profile: A large - scale futures company in China with high credibility. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]

商品研究 期货研究报告 市场静候 USDA 报告，软商品盘整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情况以及巴西的食糖生产和 出口进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2024/25 sugar production season, China's total sugar output reached 11.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons; total sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable weather conditions in major domestic sugar - growing regions are conducive to the growth of sugarcane and sugar beets. Globally, the sugar supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and international sugar prices are showing a weak trend [1] - Due to US tariffs, China's cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in domestic cotton - growing areas are suitable for cotton growth, and the development stage of most cotton is 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on cotton yield [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Production and Sales**: In the 2024/25 season, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, up 1.2 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, up 1.52 million tons year - on - year; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than last year [1] - **Domestic Growing Conditions**: Since May, precipitation in Guangxi has alleviated the previous drought, and rainfall in Yunnan has been higher than the same period in previous years, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. Although sugar beet sowing in Inner Mongolia was delayed due to low temperatures, recent improvements in light and temperature have restored good growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Xinjiang is also generally good [1] - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, major sugar - producing countries such as India are expected to increase production, and the impact of drought in Brazil is relatively limited. The global sugar supply is becoming looser, and international sugar prices are running weakly [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from 16.15 to 16.54 US dollars, an increase of 2.41%. The price of sugar in Nanning rose from 6020 to 6040 yuan, an increase of 0.33%, and the price of sugar in Kunming rose from 5865 to 6365 yuan, an increase of 8.53%. The sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 23092 to 22987, a decrease of 0.45% [1][3] Cotton - **Import and Growing Conditions**: Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. The light and temperature in domestic cotton - growing areas are generally suitable for growth. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is in the fifth true leaf to squaring stage, with the development stage 3 - 15 days earlier than in previous years [1] - **Price and Data Changes**: From July 8 to July 9, 2025, the price of US cotton rose from 67.32 to 67.72 US dollars, an increase of 0.59%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.06%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15200 yuan. The cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9971 to 9932, a decrease of 0.39% [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation", suggesting a cautious long - position approach. It is expected that it will be difficult to break through the high point in March [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, although the daily line has continuously broken through upwards, indicating strong investor sentiment, the trading volume last week failed to increase effectively, and the futures discount of stock index futures expanded against the trend, meaning that the speculative sentiment of small and medium - sized funds did not follow synchronously. The anti - involution policy mainly targets the mid - stream manufacturing sector, and its policy effects will take longer to materialize compared with the previous supply - side reform, so the sustainability of the relevant sector's market is expected to be limited. The market is currently in the preparation period of a bull market. Although a package of policies has strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. Currently, the stock index is at a short - term high, and it is expected to be difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - US President Trump threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the BRICS mechanism advocates open - mindedness, inclusiveness, cooperation, and win - win results, and does not engage in camp confrontation. Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future. Trump has issued tariff threats to 14 countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted. Among the four major indexes, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.43%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24%. The real estate (+1.75%) and household goods (+1.75%) sectors led the gains, while the biotechnology (-1.31%) and motorcycle (-1.20%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 79 stocks hit the daily limit, showing a good profit - making effect [4] - **Technical Tracking**: Small - cap stock indexes generally broke through the high point in May, with the daily and weekly lines turning bullish, but the monthly line still faced significant pressure, and the medium - term trend remained oscillatory [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of the A - share market dropped to around 1.2 trillion yuan, and investor sentiment turned cautious [4] Core Logic Summary - The market is in the preparation period of a bull market. Although policies have strengthened the medium - term upward expectation of the stock index, substantial improvement will not be seen until Q4 2025 or 2026 at the earliest. Before that, the stock index will continue to oscillate within a range. It is currently at a short - term high, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March [3] Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: The short - term trend is strongly oscillatory, and it is difficult to break through the high point in March. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions in IM within a day. Long - term layout of futures alternative long positions for index investment can continue to be held [3] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options oscillates at a low level, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month CSI 300 has reached around 12%. The previous short - term double - selling positions can take profits and exit, and can re - enter after the second wave of volatility increase [3]