商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受美元走弱油价上涨提振，棉花有所支撑 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 16.62 | 16.38 | -1.44% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.32 | 68.76 | 0.64% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-06-25 | 2025-06-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6080.0 | 0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5860.0 | 5890.0 | 0.51% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.55% | | | 棉花（新疆） | ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 泰国印度产量预期受到季风雨提振，白糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-26 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长。目前，新疆大部分地 区的棉花已进入现蕾期，而黄河和长江流域的棉花则处于第五真叶至现蕾 期。大多数棉花的发育期比往年提前了 3 到 15 天，后续需要持续关注天气 对单产的影响。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 ...

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 密西西比河流域暴雨，棉花短期观望为主 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, geopolitical disturbances are released. Coking coal will return to its own logic. Although it followed the decline of crude oil, the bulls' resistance is strong. For coke, the fifth round of price cut has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts, with a price increase expected in July. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 784 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan), the basis is 104 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43.5 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [2] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal washery production is increasing. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (up 0.78%), and that of 110 coal washeries is 61.34% (up 3.2%). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (up 13.11 million tons), that of coal washeries is 237.39 million tons (down 14.08 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (up 0.68 million tons), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (down 3.88 million tons), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (down 8.71 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - The fourth round of spot price cut has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), the active contract is 1351.5 yuan/ton (down 33.5 yuan), the basis is - 40 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 48 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, and demand is slightly increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (up 0.21%), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (up 0.57 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream inventories are decreasing, and port inventory is flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (down 6.38 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (down 8.64 million tons), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (up 0.02 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in crude oil. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate policy has been relaxed, but investors' pessimistic attitude towards real estate is hard to reverse in the short term. The coking coal supply is increasing, and the inventory inflection point may take time. For coke, the cost and demand are decisive factors. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, the disturbance of crude oil on coking coal will end. Short - term decline in crude oil may drag down coking coal. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate market policies have not effectively reversed investors' pessimistic attitude. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills have low willingness to cut production [4]. - For coking coal, the resumption of production at mines and coal preparation plants is verified as passive production cuts. Inventory at mines is rising, while that at coal preparation plants is decreasing. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke has limited downward space and will provide support. The supply - demand of coke has shown marginal improvement [5]. - After the short - term release of crude oil disturbance, coking coal will return to its own logic. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. Short - term recommendation is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Mongolian No. 5 primary coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 807 yuan/ton (+12). The basis is 81 yuan/ton (-12), and the September - January spread is -36 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. Supply - Mines and coal preparation plants have resumed production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (+0.78), and that of 110 coal preparation plants is 61.34% (+3.2). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (+13.11), that of coal preparation plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2]. Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The active contract is at 1385 yuan/ton (+0.5). The basis is -18.5 yuan/ton (-0.5), and the September - January spread is -39 yuan/ton (-12) [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand has slightly increased. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (+0.57) [3]. Inventory - Upstream and downstream inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. If coking coal is relatively resistant to decline when crude oil weakens, it may rise again after crude oil volatility decreases. If coking coal is sold off with large - scale position - increasing, it may return to a weak trend. Active production cuts at mines or administrative production cuts can trigger a continuous rebound [5].

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉关键产区天气炎热，棉花短期观望为主 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉出口数据强劲，棉花短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉疲软，郑棉短期承压 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 供应预期宽松，原糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-19 报告内容摘要: 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 免责声明 本报告由信达期货有限公司（以下简称"信达期货"）制作及发布。 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock", and for coking coal is also "shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused the price of crude oil to rise. Coking coal, as an energy-related variety, indirectly benefits and rises under the narrative of rising energy costs. However, the deterioration of the Middle East situation may also drag down the global economic recovery, so its medium - to - long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear. In China, the social financing performance in May was weaker than expected, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased. The supply - demand gap further narrowed, which is expected to boost the price level. The State Council executive meeting mentioned promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also policies such as disguised price cuts through housing purchase coupons in some cities. The implementation time of crude steel production restrictions is uncertain, and currently, steel mills have sufficient profits and lack the motivation to cut production. Overall, the economic data in May was weak, but the market reaction was positive after the data was released on the 16th, and the real estate sector rose significantly. In a situation of extremely low valuations, reverse trading increased, and the bottom is gradually taking shape [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 868 yuan/ton (+8), and the active contract was reported at 790.5 yuan/ton (+1). The basis was 97.5 yuan/ton (+7), and the September - January spread was - 25 yuan/ton (-7.5) [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Mines and coal washing plants started to resume production. The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.34% (+3.98), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory increased, and downstream inventory decreased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 486.04 million tons (+5.31), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 251.47 million tons (+6.41), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 669.53 (-21), and the port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices were weak, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract was reported at 1375 yuan/ton (+9.5). The basis was - 9 yuan/ton (-9.5), and the September - January spread was - 28 yuan/ton (-5.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Supply decreased, and demand remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventory continued to decrease. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 87.31 million tons (-1.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the port inventory was 203.09 million tons (-11.06) [3] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, and coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits. However, the impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal prices in the medium - to - long - term is unclear. Domestically, although the economic data in May was weak, the market reaction was positive, and the bottom is gradually taking shape. For coking coal, the resumption of production in coal washing plants and mines this week confirmed that the previous production cuts were mainly passive due to safety and environmental protection. The coal washing plants have started to reduce inventory, and it is likely that mines will also reduce inventory in the future. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The previous decline has pushed the cost to the limit, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The production capacity of coking enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, and the supply - demand situation of coke has improved marginally [4][5][6]