上周新增非标风险事件 5 条，其中涉及发债主体的有 3 条，分别为 1 月 30 日的"光大 永明-中信国安棉花片危改项目不动产债权投资计划"（更新消息）、2 月 2 日的"中建 投·安泉 593 号(青岛融创)集合资金信托计划"（更新消息）和 2 月 4 日的"陕国投·沣东 新城城市发展基金集合资金信托计划"，目前状态分别为已违约、已偿还、已违约，融资 方式分别为债权计划、信托计划和信托计划。 1. 光大永明-中信国安棉花片危改项目不动产债权投资计划 中信国安棉花片危改项目不动产债权投资计划（以下简称"债权投资计划"），2016 年 11 月，光大永明资产管理股份有限公司（以下简称"光大永明"）发行了债权投资计划， 募集资金规模 26.65 亿，用于棉花片危改项目 A7 地块的拆迁、开发、建设，偿债主体为北 京中融物产有限责任公司，中信国安集团有限公司（胜遇评级 10-，债券已违约，以下简 称"中信国安"）提供本息全额无条件不可撤销连带责任保证担保。2019 年 11 月 6 日， 光大永明公告确认，中信国安未能按约定支付利息，已构成实质性违约；2024年 7月 26日 消息，投资人长生人寿保险有限公司（以 ...

信用风险年度回顾系列 | 信用风险年度回顾系列 | | --- | | 目 录 | | 一、非标违约总体情况 1 | | 1.1 按非标类型划分 2 | | 1.2 按区域划分 3 | | 1.3 按行业划分 4 | | 二、城投非标风险事件分析 6 | | 2.1 按省份划分 6 | | 2.2 按城投层级划分 7 | | 2.3 按地级市（含地级市内开发区）划分 7 | | 2.4 按区县级划分 8 | | 2.5 多次发生非标违约的发债城投 9 | | 2.6 首次发生非标违约的发债城投 10 | | 三、2025 年非标风险事件特征分析 11 | | 四、总结 16 | | 2 | 信用风险年度回顾系列 一、非标违约总体情况 从我们近几年来不完全统计的所有非标风险事件（含已违约与风险提示）来看，2018- 2025 年累计已发生 7,219 频次非标风险事件，非标风险自 2019 年开始大幅暴露，在 2019- 2023 年每年保持 1,000 次以上风险事件，其中"已违约事件"在 2023 年达到顶峰 978 次， 2024 年开始大幅减少，2025 年较上年减少 544 次至 165 次，创 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The capital market remains loose, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have declined slightly overall. The risk - assets in the market continued to decline this week, but the mood improved on Friday. The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while the double - easing policy brought about by the high - vote victory of Japan's Komeito Party is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve. It is recommended to maintain the bond position for the upcoming nine - day holiday [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital and Interest - rate Bond Yield Situation - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.46% to 1.50%, and DR001 ranged from 1.28% to 1.36%. The central levels of DR001 and DR007 both declined compared with the previous week [1] - The yields of interest - rate bonds declined slightly this week. For treasury bonds, the 1 - year yield rose 2bp, the 3 - year and 5 - year yields declined 2bp each, the 7 - year yield declined 1bp, and the 10 - year yield remained flat. For CDB bonds, the 1 - year yield declined 1bp, the 3 - year yield declined 2bp, the 5 - year yield declined 4bp, the 7 - year yield declined 3bp, and the 10 - year yield declined 3bp [1][2] 3.2 Yield Changes of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds | Variety | 1 - year | 3 - year | 5 - year | 7 - year | 10 - year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Treasury Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | 0 | | Treasury Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | +1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | | Treasury Bond (Annual Change, BP) | -1 | 0 | -6 | -6 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Weekly Change, BP) | -1 | -2 | -4 | -3 | -3 | | CDB Bond (Monthly Change, BP) | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -2 | | CDB Bond (Annual Change, BP) | +2 | -2 | -5 | -6 | -3 | [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Situation - On February 6, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 48.95bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.44bp, narrowing 2.18bp and 0.88bp respectively compared with January 30 [3] 3.4 Market and Operation Suggestions - This week, the risk - assets in the market continued to decline, but the mood improved on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index was in the red for most of the day and then closed down at the end of the session. The bond yields were strongly consolidated above 1.80%. Overnight, US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals rebounded significantly [4] - The Fed's new chairman nomination has raised doubts about the degree of easing, while Japan's double - easing policy is expected to enhance global liquidity and support the subsequent rise of risk - assets. Before the holiday, it is expected that risk - assets may rise further, and the liquidity environment will improve [4] - For the upcoming nine - day holiday, it is recommended that both trading and investment accounts in the bond market maintain their positions and do not need to reduce holdings. The upcoming price data is of limited reference due to the Spring Festival date misalignment, and potential emergencies during the holiday should be noted if geopolitical negotiations such as the US - Iran negotiations do not go well [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the primary market for industrial bonds witnessed significant growth in issuance scale and net financing, with the contribution of generalized platforms being evident [2][5] - The issuance and net - financing of industrial bonds showed different trends across various dimensions such as bond types, enterprise nature, regional distribution, and industry distribution Summary by Catalog 1. Bond Types - In 2025, the issuance proportion of general medium - term notes continued to rise, exceeding 40%. The proportions of general corporate bonds and private placement bonds also increased, while the proportion of ultra - short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 30.6%. The proportion of private placement issuance increased by about 1.18 percentage points to 6.18% [4] - In terms of net financing, general medium - term notes had the highest net - financing scale of about 1.59 trillion yuan, followed by general corporate bonds with 529.8 billion yuan. Among the main varieties, only the net financing of general short - term financing bonds decreased and turned negative. The net financing of exchange - traded general corporate bonds and private placement bonds increased by 87.5% and 267.9% respectively, and that of association - issued ultra - short - term financing bonds and general medium - term notes increased by 806.3% and 13.6% respectively [10] 2. Enterprise Nature - In 2025, the issuance scale of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises increased, with state - owned enterprises growing by about 10.0% and private enterprises by 26.6%. Collective enterprises also grew by about 8.3%, while the issuance scale of public enterprises decreased by about 13.2%. The proportion of state - owned enterprises continued to rise to 92.5%, and the proportion of private enterprises increased by about 0.5 percentage points to 3.71% [13] - In terms of net financing, state - owned enterprises dominated, with a net financing of about 2.38 trillion yuan, contributing almost all of the industrial bond net financing. Public enterprises' net financing remained negative, and private enterprises ended seven consecutive years of negative net financing, turning positive with a scale of about 3.75 billion yuan. Collective enterprises maintained positive net financing but with a small scale [15] 3. Regional Distribution - Beijing led in industrial bond issuance scale, exceeding 3 trillion yuan in 2025. Guangdong ranked second with nearly 90 billion yuan, and Shanghai third with slightly over 70 billion yuan. There were 14 regions with issuance scale less than 10 billion yuan in 2025, 2 less than in 2024 [19] - In 2025, the issuance scale decreased in 12 regions, mostly in the lower - ranking areas. Among the top 10 regions, only Guangdong's issuance scale declined by less than 10%. Regions with a decline of over 20% included Shaanxi, Yunnan, Hong Kong, Guizhou, and Heilongjiang. Regions with an increase of over 20% included Beijing, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Gansu, Hainan, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Tibet, with Tibet being the only one with an increase of over 100% but still having the lowest total [19] - In terms of net financing, Heilongjiang and Chongqing were the only two regions with negative net financing in 2025. Beijing was the only region with a net - financing scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and Shandong and Shanghai ranked second and third with over 10 billion yuan. Ten regions had a net - financing scale of less than 1 billion yuan. Twenty - one regions achieved net - financing growth, accounting for about 64%, with Liaoning having the most significant growth, turning positive. Other regions with a net - financing growth of over 100% included Hunan, Gansu, Hong Kong, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [20][21] 4. Industry Distribution - In 2025, the power industry surpassed industrial holding to become the industry with the largest issuance scale, approaching 2 trillion yuan. Industrial holding was another industry with an issuance scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and these two industries accounted for 34.5% of the total industrial bond issuance scale. Among the industries with an issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan, 4 industries including industrial holding, toll roads, coal, and real - estate development saw a decline in issuance volume. Industries with significant growth in issuance scale included aviation, machinery, and power [24] - In terms of net financing, the power industry was the only one with a net - financing scale exceeding 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 156.8%. The top five industries in net financing also included industrial holding, financial holding, construction, and diversified finance. Construction was the only one among the top five industries with a decline, about 13.0%. Among the top 10 industries, the toll - road industry also saw a decline in net financing. The semiconductor and machinery industries had prominent net - financing performance. The real - estate development industry had the worst net - financing performance, turning negative year - on - year and dropping significantly, and was the only industry with a financing gap of over 10 billion yuan [26] 5. Maturity and Cost - In a low - interest - rate environment, most industries chose to lengthen bond maturities. Among the top 10 industries in terms of issuance scale, only the proportions of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years in the commercial leasing and trading industries were less than 50%, at 22.8% and 40.7% respectively. Industries with mainly short - term bonds also included food and beverage, aviation, communication, and retail. In the long - term segment, industries with a proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 3 years exceeding 70% included industrial holding, financial holding, real - estate development, and diversified finance [28] - In terms of cost, textile was the only industry with a weighted coupon rate exceeding 3% in 2025. The comprehensive, commercial real - estate, and real - estate development industries had a weighted coupon rate of 2.5% or above, while other industries were below 2.5%, and many were below 2%. Among industries with a large issuance scale, the weighted average coupon rates of power, financial holding, toll roads, and oil and gas were all below 2% [29]

胜遇信用日报 2026年1月30日 | 序号 | 发行人 | 类型 | 事件详情 据彭博引述知情人士透露，黑石集团正就成为新世界发展（0017.HK）最大 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 单一股东进行深入谈判。目前，香港富豪郑家纯家族目前持有新世界发展约 | | 1 | 新世界发展有限公司 | 股权变更 | 45%的股份，这意味着若交易成行，郑氏家族将放弃对此项重要资产的控制 | | | | | 权。根据新世界公告，经其与控股股东周大福企业有限公司核实，尚未就潜 | | | | | 在投资金额等达成任何协议。 | | | | | 近期多地政府工作报告聚焦防范化解重大风险，将地方政府债务风险防控作 | | | | | 为 2026 年重点任务。陕西、河南、青海等地均强调稳妥化解存量债务、坚决 | | | | | 遏制新增隐性债务，推进融资平台市场化转型与有序退出，并加强债务全生 | | 2 | - | 监管政策趋势 | 命周期管理和资金链监管。中央经济工作会议亦明确要求积极有序化债、优 | | | | | 化债务重组置换，杜绝违规举债。专家指出，需统筹'化债'与'发展'， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquidity of funds during the tax period fluctuated moderately, and the yields of interest - rate bonds continued to decline. The yields of most maturities of treasury bonds and CDB bonds decreased this week, with the 1 - year treasury bond yield being an exception, which increased by 4bp [1][2] - The domestic bond market showed a good performance after getting rid of the weak start of the year, but the further downward space of yields was limited due to stock market disturbances. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained stable at around 1.8%, and it was expected that it would be difficult to decline further before the Spring Festival. The stock market presented a differentiated pattern [7] - Overseas bond markets were mainly affected by the intensified geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Although the probability of a war against Iran was low, the risk of miscalculation among parties still existed. The Fed's interest - rate decision in the next week was relatively certain, and the market generally expected no interest - rate cut [7] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Fund Liquidity - This week, DR007 ranged from 1.48% to 1.51%, and DR001 ranged from 1.32% to 1.42%. The central value changed little compared with the previous week, and the fluctuation of DR007 decreased [1] 3.2 Yield Changes of Interest - rate Bonds - Treasury bonds: The 1 - year yield increased by 4bp, the 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp each, and the 7 - year yield decreased by 3bp [2][3] - CDB bonds: The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 3bp, 3bp, and 5bp respectively [2][3] 3.3 Term Spread Changes - On January 23, the 10 - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds was 54.79bp, and that of CDB bonds was 39.76bp, narrowing by 5.21bp and 2.34bp respectively compared with January 16 [5] 3.4 Market Conditions at Home and Abroad - Domestic: The bond market performed well, but the stock market affected the downward space of bond yields. The stock market was differentiated, with large and medium - cap stocks weakening and small - cap stocks rising [7] - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affected overseas bond markets. The Fed's interest - rate decision was relatively certain, with no expected interest - rate cut [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Shenghong Technology achieved a net profit of 3.245 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 324.38%[4] - In Q3 2025, the net profit was 1.102 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 260.52%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.2 billion yuan, marking a decline of 129.62 percentage points[4] Asset Expansion - The construction in progress surged from 257 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 3.548 billion yuan, an increase of 1283.08%, indicating aggressive capacity expansion to meet global demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDIs[6] - Shenghong Technology raised 1.876 billion yuan through a stock issuance, with 1.326 billion yuan allocated for AI HDI projects in Vietnam and high-layer PCB projects in Thailand, expected to contribute an additional 3.6 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 41.19% of the 2024 PCB hardware revenue[6] Market Position and Valuation - As of October 29, 2023, Shenghong Technology's stock price was 339 yuan, with a market capitalization of 295.048 billion yuan, significantly higher than competitors like Huadian Co. (152.756 billion yuan) and Shennan Circuit (151.884 billion yuan)[9] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI high-end PCB sector, benefiting from a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.2% in the PCB industry from 2024 to 2029[9] Future Growth Prospects - Production capacity is expected to be released starting in Q4 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated as NVIDIA's B300 product ramps up production[8] - Shenghong Technology's continuous growth is expected to contribute positively to local tax revenues, with a projected profit of 3.743 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 346.52%[10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company, but it highlights significant concerns regarding asset quality and capital adequacy, suggesting a cautious outlook on investment potential. Core Insights - The report revisits the operational trajectory of the company amidst declining LPR and tightening capital regulations, questioning whether previous core issues have been resolved [1] - The company faces ongoing liquidity challenges, with shareholder equity issues exacerbated by financial crises among major shareholders [3] - Asset quality remains a concern, with rising non-performing loans and a high concentration of risk in real estate [60] Company Governance - The company continues to experience liquidity issues with significant shareholder stakes being auctioned at low prices, reflecting a deteriorating confidence in the bank's equity [3] - The number of shareholders has slightly decreased, indicating potential consolidation but also ongoing challenges in shareholder confidence [3] Asset Side - As of June 2025, total assets reached 486.91 billion, primarily driven by loans and financial investments, which grew by 3.50% and 8.14% respectively [4] - The loan structure remains heavily weighted towards long-term loans, with a notable increase in short-term loans [5] Loan Quality - By the end of 2024, non-performing loans increased by 5.10% to 3.75 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio slightly decreasing to 1.53%, still above the industry average [9] - The bank's approach to classifying non-performing loans has raised concerns about the accuracy of reported asset quality [14] Investment Assets - The bank's credit loss provisions for debt investments rose by 25.12%, with a significant increase in stage three assets, indicating heightened risk exposure [22] - A high percentage of un-rated debt investments poses additional risks, particularly in the real estate sector [25] Liability Side - Total liabilities increased to 450.91 billion, with a significant reliance on deposits, which accounted for 73.55% of total liabilities [28] - The bank's dependence on high-cost deposits remains a concern, with a notable portion of its funding coming from short-term sources [29] Liquidity - Liquidity ratios have shown slight declines, indicating increased short-term repayment pressures, although still above industry averages [36] - The bank's liquidity coverage ratio improved but remains below the average for commercial banks [36] Revenue Side - Total revenue for 2024 was 8.37 billion, reflecting a slight decline, with net interest income and fee-based income both decreasing significantly [39] - Investment income saw a notable increase, contributing positively to overall revenue despite challenges in traditional income streams [44] Profitability - Net profit decreased by 5.56% to 2.85 billion, with credit impairment losses significantly impacting profitability [48] - The bank's ability to generate internal capital remains weak, raising concerns about future capital adequacy [53] Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios improved slightly due to the issuance of perpetual bonds, but core capital ratios remain below industry standards [50] - The bank's reliance on external financing for capital maintenance poses sustainability risks [53] Peer Comparison - Compared to similar-sized banks, the company ranks favorably in terms of net profit but struggles with net interest margins and asset quality [55] - In the context of regional peers, the bank's capital adequacy ratios are concerning, indicating a need for improvement [56] Summary - The company has made some progress in capital adequacy and investment performance, but significant challenges remain in asset quality and liquidity management [59] - The ongoing liquidity crisis and high-risk asset exposure suggest a cautious outlook for future performance [60]

| | | ——区域研究之山东篇 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 目 录 | | | 一、经济与产业 | | 3 | | 1、山东省区位概览 | | 3 | | 2、经济发展 | | 3 | | 3、产业发展 | | 5 | | 4、上市公司 | | 8 | | 二、财政实力 | | 10 | | 三、债务压力 | | 12 | | 四、城投梳理 | | 14 | | 1、省级 | | 14 | | 2、青岛市 | | 17 | | 3、济南市 | | 56 | | 4、济宁市 | | 71 | | 5、潍坊市 | | 78 | | 6、烟台市 | | 87 | | 7、菏泽市 | | 94 | | 8、泰安市 | | 99 | | 9、威海市 | 103 | | | 10、枣庄市 | 108 | | | 11、德州市 | 113 | | | 12、临沂市 | 117 | | | 13、日照市 | 121 | | | 14、淄博市 | 125 | | | 15、东营市 | 129 | | | 16、滨州市 | | 132 | 胜遇研究 一、经济与产业 1、山东省区位概览 山东省简称鲁，位于 ...