Market Overview - In Q4 2025, the asset securitization market issued a total of 658 transactions, amounting to 6,920.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%[9] - The total issuance for the year reached 23,170.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%[9] Market Composition - In Q4 2025, the composition of the market by issuance amount was as follows: Credit ABS at 15.2%, ABN at 22.8%, and Corporate ABS at 62.0%[9] - The issuance of Credit ABS in Q4 2025 was 1,049.1 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 32.2%[9] Product Performance - The issuance of auto loan ABS in Q4 2025 was 649.9 billion yuan, marking the first quarterly year-on-year rebound for the year[9] - NPAS products remained the most active, with 44 transactions and a slight year-on-year increase of 6.0% in issuance amount[9] ABN Market Trends - ABN issuance in Q4 2025 totaled 1,578.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.7%[10] - For the entire year, ABN issuance reached 5,680.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% compared to 2024[10] Corporate ABS Highlights - Corporate ABS issuance in Q4 2025 reached 4,292.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, achieving the highest quarterly issuance since 2022[10] - The top four product types in Corporate ABS accounted for over 60% of the total issuance for the year[10] Secondary Market Activity - The total transaction amount in the secondary market for asset securitization in Q4 2025 was 4,769.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%[13] - The turnover rate for Credit ABS in Q4 was 9.2%, indicating a significant increase in market activity compared to the beginning of the year[13] Credit Enhancement Levels - The number of outstanding priority securities for Credit ABS increased in Q4 2025, with RMBS showing a stable distribution of credit enhancement levels primarily between 2%-6%[16] - No negative anomalies were observed in the credit enhancement levels for outstanding securities during the quarter[16] Future Outlook - New guidelines from the People's Bank of China regarding small loan companies may impact ABS financing, potentially leading to lower loan rates and tighter credit risk preferences[17]

分析报告·行业 中国 PMI 行业分析报告 202601： 建筑 4 年新低，电信价格新高 2026 年 1 月 31 日 分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况较上月回 落 0.8 个百分点，同比值-0.8。新订单较上月回落 1.2 个百分点，同比值-0.3；收费价格较上月回升 0.8 个百分点，同比值 0.2；中间投入价格较上月 回落 0.2 个百分点，同比值-0.4。生产性服务业较 上月回落 1.4，消费性服务业较上月回升 0.4。 大类行业：建筑业较上月回落 4 个百分点， 同比值-0.5,近年当月均值差-4.4；新订单回落 7.3 至 40.1；收费价格回升 0.8 至 48.2。 服务业较上月回落 0.2 至 49.5，同比值-0.8， 近年当月均值差-2；新订单回落 0.2 至 47.1；收 费价格回升 0.8 至 48.9。 本月，行业中类：经状指标最高的是信息与 商务服务中类，居民服务中类最低。回升最多的是 居民服务中类，房建中类回落最多。 中采咨询研究部 电话：010-68599115 邮箱：info@pmiii.org.cn 分析报告·行业 图 1：非制造业全国经营活动状况年度对比图 ...

月度分析报告·综述 中国 PMI 非制造业全国综述 202601： 建筑淡季延续，服务回落 2026 年 1 月 31 日 月度分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%,近年当月均 值差-2.4，非制造业经营活动结束扩张的势头。新订单回落 1.2 至 46.1%，中间 投入价格回落，收费价格有所回升，需求恢复力度仍然较弱。 表 1：PMI 非制造业 1 月数据（50.0 表示与上月相比持平） | 指标 | 本月 | 环比值 | 上月环比值 | 同比值 | 上月同比值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经营活动状况 | 49.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | -0.8 | -2 | | 新订单（业务需 | 46.1 | -1.2 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -1.4 | | 求） | | | | | | | 收费价格 | 48.8 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.8 | | 中间投入价格 | 50 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | | 国（境）外新订 | 46.9 | -0.6 | ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the adjustment process in the market is not yet over, with a long-term pressure point at 4200, suggesting that the current rebound is not the main upward trend for the year and requires further consolidation before resuming upward movement [1] Fundamental Analysis - The domestic economy continues to recover steadily, with a predicted slow price recovery and a significant bottoming out of the manufacturing PMI expected in February 2026. The CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year in December 2025, while the PPI turned positive at 0.5%, indicating a substantial recovery in corporate revenues and narrowing profit declines for industrial enterprises [2] - Consumer spending is on the rise, with retail sales growth steadily increasing, enhancing consumption's role in economic growth. In the U.S., GDP growth exceeded expectations at 2.8% in Q4 2025, with non-farm payrolls adding 198,000 jobs, supporting global capital market risk appetite [2] Liquidity Analysis - The liquidity in the market remains ample, with continuous inflow of new funds. The central bank has been actively releasing liquidity through reverse repos, and there is room for further policy actions such as rate cuts [3][4] - Domestic liquidity is supported by rising CPI and PPI, improving corporate profitability, and increasing household income, attracting more medium to long-term funds into the equity market. Insurance products are seeing strong sales, contributing to a rigid demand for asset allocation in A-shares [4] Policy Analysis - The macro policy for 2026 focuses on "increasing residents' income," with the stock market's wealth effect being a crucial driver for consumption growth. Regulatory measures are in place to guide the market towards a "slow bull" trend while managing short-term volatility [5] - The external environment remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors and trade policies from the U.S. government, which may exert short-term pressure on global capital market risk appetite [5] Technical Analysis - The report notes that the 4200 point pressure level has been reached, indicating a significant need for technical adjustment. The market's overall trading volume has not shown a significant decline, suggesting continued buying interest [6] - The A-share market is expected to complete a bottoming process before the Spring Festival, with the 4000 point level providing solid technical support. Once short-term adjustments are complete, the market is anticipated to enter a mid-term upward channel, transitioning from growth to value dominance [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the overall industry, with consumer goods leading the major categories [1] Core Insights - The national PMI for December is 50.1, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the recent average [1][3] - The production index has rebounded to 51.7, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, while the new orders index has risen to 50.8, up by 1.6 percentage points [4][9] - The highest absolute values among industries this month are in pharmaceuticals, clothing, transportation, and communication, while the highest month-on-month increases are seen in petroleum, clothing, and timber [1][3] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI index stands at 50.1, with 4 industries above 50 and 11 below [3] - The highest PMI is in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector at 58.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 40.7 [3] New Orders Index - The new orders index is at 50.8, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [4] - The highest new orders index is also in pharmaceuticals at 62.5, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 35.7 [5][6] Profit Trend Index - The profit trend index for manufacturing is -2.3, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [7] - The highest profit trend index is in the automotive manufacturing sector at 9.3, while the lowest is in non-ferrous metal smelting at -25 [7][10] Production Index - The production index is at 51.7, with 5 industries above 50 and 9 below [9] - The highest production index is in the textile and apparel sector at 67.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 38.9 [9] Purchase Price Index - The purchase price index is at 53.1, down by 0.5 percentage points from last month [13] - The highest purchase price index is in non-ferrous metal smelting at 68.8, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 32.1 [13][14] Finished Goods Inventory Index - The finished goods inventory index is at 48.2, with 4 industries above 50 and 10 below [17] - The highest inventory index is in pharmaceuticals at 55, while the lowest is in metal products at 31.3 [17] Export Orders Index - The export orders index is at 49, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [18] - The highest export orders index is in textiles at 62.5, while the lowest is in agricultural products at 33.3 [19][22]

Market Overview - Gold prices reached historical highs in October, driven by increased risk aversion due to multiple factors including U.S. government shutdown and Fed rate cut expectations[5] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of at least $18 billion, with potential permanent losses of up to $14 billion if it continues[8] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to a decline in gold prices as risk demand decreases[11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on October 29, marking the fifth cut since September 2024[15] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, increasing uncertainty around future monetary policy[17] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped to 67.8% following Powell's comments, reflecting market skepticism about aggressive easing[18] Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand leading the growth, particularly through ETFs which saw inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion[28] - Central banks continued to increase gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 5 tons in Q3, maintaining a total of 2,304 tons[28] - The World Gold Council reported that Q3 2025 saw a 44% year-on-year increase in total demand value, reaching $146 billion[28]

Economic Performance - In 2024, Shandong Province achieved a GDP of 9.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, surpassing the national growth rate by 0.7 percentage points[2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) grew by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 15.1% and high-tech industry investment rising by 15.9%[3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.8 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with online retail sales at 754.3 billion yuan, up 7.8%[3] Financial Sector Performance - The total social financing scale in Shandong reached 23.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%[62] - New loans amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, exceeding the national average by 1.8 percentage points[44] - The balance of debt financing tools issued by enterprises was 622.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year[66] Employment and Income - Urban employment increased by 1.245 million, achieving 113.2% of the annual target, while per capita disposable income rose by 5.5%[34] - The rural per capita disposable income growth rate outpaced that of urban residents, indicating a positive trend in rural economic conditions[34] Price Stability - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, with food prices declining by 0.5% and non-food prices increasing by 0.4%[35] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year[35] Financial Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector was 1.15%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points, marking six consecutive years of decline[59] - The provision coverage ratio reached 276.6%, indicating enhanced risk resistance capabilities within the banking institutions[59]

Economic Performance - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.8%, with industrial investment showing a strong increase of 11.1%[3] - Total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, amounting to 17,940 billion yuan[3] Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume reached 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%[3] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 4.2%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year[3] - Per capita disposable income in Shanghai increased by 4.2%, reaching 88,366 yuan[43] Financial Sector Development - The balance of deposits and loans reached 22.0 trillion yuan and 12.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.7% and 9.8%[4] - New loans for small and micro enterprises had a weighted average interest rate of 3.25%, down by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year[5] - The social financing scale increased by 10,612 billion yuan, exceeding the previous year by 3,201 billion yuan[5] Industrial Growth - The total industrial output value was 39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3] - The added value of strategic emerging industries reached 17,201 billion yuan, growing by 1.8%[3] - The three leading industries (integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence) achieved a combined output value of 4,618 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.8%[3]

Report Date - The report is dated July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined on the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract down 0.11% and the open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates fluctuated, and key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad changed. The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, and the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, causing increased volatility in treasury bond futures prices under the short - term improvement in market risk appetite [2][3] Key Points by Category Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally fell on the previous trading day, with T2509 down 0.11%, TS2509 down 0.01%, TF2509 down 0.07%, etc. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 2,462, TF2509 decreased by 3,177, while T2509 increased by 1,115. The trading volume of each contract also showed different changes [2] - **Spread Changes**: The inter - delivery spread of TS2509 decreased from - 0.068 to - 0.078, TF2509 decreased from - 0.070 to - 0.085, and T2509 decreased from - 0.040 to - 0.060 [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Domestic Short - term Rates**: SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.9bp to 1.3170, SHIBOR 7 - day decreased by 1.5bp to 1.4620, DR001 decreased by 4.13bp to 1.3599, etc. [2] Spot Market - Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 1.43bp to 1.69%, the 5Y increased by 1.39bp to 1.56%, and the 2Y decreased by 0.24bp to 1.39% [2] - **Yield Spread**: The 10 - 2Y treasury bond yield spread was 27.76bp [2] Overseas Market - Key - term Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 3bp to 4.35%, the German 10Y decreased by 2bp to 2.680%, and the Japanese 10Y decreased by 1.8bp to 1.510% [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, while 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [3] - **Real Estate Loans**: At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [3] - **Foreign Investment Policy**: The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to fully cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in domestic reinvestment nationwide [3] - **International Events**: Trump announced a large - scale agreement with Japan, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible discussions on China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran in the new round of Sino - US negotiations [3] Industry Information - **Domestic Money Market Rates**: On July 22, most domestic money market rates declined, such as the 1 - day silver inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average rate down 4.65bp to 1.3144% [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US treasury bond yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield down 2.31bp to 3.8292% and the 10 - year yield down 3.17bp to 4.344% [3] Market Comments and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: The long - end of domestic treasury bonds continued to decline, the central bank's open - market operations continued to have a net withdrawal, and the Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively. The US consumer confidence index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed was under pressure to cut interest rates [3] - **Economic Data**: The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with industrial added value, exports, and financial data better than expected, while consumption, investment, and real estate investment growth rates declined [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external "equal - tariff" policy increased global economic uncertainty, the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the prices of treasury bond futures would be more volatile [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the digital finance industry, projecting significant growth in market size driven by policy support and technological advancements [11][12][16]. Core Insights - Digital finance is positioned as a core driver of transformation and innovation within the financial sector, with its strategic importance highlighted by recent governmental focus [3][4]. - The market size of China's digital finance is expected to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2025 and 20 trillion yuan by 2030, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 19% [11][15]. - The integration of emerging technologies such as AI, blockchain, and cloud computing is accelerating the development of digital finance, leading to new business models and enhanced operational efficiencies [11][16]. Summary by Sections Digital Finance Development - Digital finance has evolved through three main phases: the nascent stage (1990-2000), the innovation phase (2000-2015), and the integration phase (2016-present), with significant advancements in technology driving its growth [4][5]. - The Chinese government has issued clear policy guidelines to promote the application of AI and blockchain in finance, enhancing collaboration between financial institutions and tech companies [5][6]. Current Market Status - In 2024, the core industries of the digital economy are expected to account for 10% of GDP, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and AI [6]. - The digital economy's data market is projected to grow, with a 30% increase in transaction volume, reaching over 160 billion yuan [6][7]. - Commercial banks are leading the digital finance development through various strategies, including credit provision and risk management [7][8]. Investment Trends - Despite a slight decline in market activity, venture capital continues to support the digital economy, with early-stage financing remaining a focus [8][9]. - The report notes a shift in private equity and venture capital strategies towards ecosystem reconstruction, emphasizing collaboration with leading tech firms [8][10]. Future Outlook - The future of digital finance is characterized by precise policy guidance, accelerated capital accumulation, and a significant market scale transition [13][16]. - The integration of advanced technologies is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the financial industry, creating substantial growth opportunities [16].