Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to China Resources Beer with a target price of HK$33.50 [7][10][12] Core Insights - In 1H25, China Resources Beer reported total revenue of RMB23,942 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, which aligns with expectations. Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit rose to RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, marking increases of 11.2% and 23.0% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations [8][11] - Beer sales increased by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB23,161 million, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 0.4% and volume growth of 2.2%. The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, driven by stabilized ASP due to premiumization and lower raw material prices, which saw an average unit cost decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [9][11] - Baijiu sales, however, declined by 34% year-on-year to RMB781 million, falling short of expectations. Despite the GPM remaining unchanged year-on-year, EBIT turned negative at RMB152 million, compared to a profit of RMB48 million in 1H24, reflecting the impact of anti-extravagance policies starting from 2Q25 in China [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 was RMB23,942 million, up 0.8% YoY [8] - Normalized EBIT and shareholders' profit were RMB7,078 million and RMB5,789 million, up 11.2% and 23.0% YoY, respectively [8] - Beer sales increased 2.6% YoY to RMB23,161 million, with ASP up 0.4% and volume up 2.2% [9] Margin Analysis - GPM improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% due to premiumization and lower raw material costs [9] - Baijiu sales dropped 34% YoY to RMB781 million, with EBIT turning negative at RMB152 million [9] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is set at HK$33.50 based on a 17.0x average P/E for 2025-26 [10][12] - Bottom-line forecasts for 2025-27 have been revised up by 12%, 3%, and 2% respectively [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) [2][8] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in its high-end segment, with earnings exceeding expectations and significant growth in profitability [2][8] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - The interim dividend was set at 0.464 yuan per share, reflecting a 24.4% increase, with a payout ratio of 26% [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: The company’s revenue for 2025H1 was 23.94 billion yuan, with EBIT at 7.69 billion yuan, marking a 20.8% increase, and net profit at 5.79 billion yuan, up 23.0% [2][4] - Beer sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase, with an average price of 3,570.4 yuan per kiloliter, up 0.44% [8][10] - The beer business's EBIT margin improved, with a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] Business Segment Analysis - High-end product performance: Sales of premium and above products grew over 10%, while mid-to-low-end products saw slight increases due to a high base [8][10] - Cost management: The beer business achieved a cost reduction of 4.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [8][10] - White wine segment under pressure: Revenue from the white wine business fell by 34.0% to 0.781 billion yuan, primarily due to policy disruptions affecting consumption [8][10] Future Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product development and operational efficiency improvements through digitalization and cost management strategies [8][10] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 5.87 billion yuan, 6.40 billion yuan, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [8][10] - The target price is set at 40.00 HKD, with a corresponding PE ratio of approximately 20X for 2025E [4][8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China Resources Beer (00291) to see a moderate acceleration in its beer business in the second half of 2025, with policy impacts gradually normalizing; however, the liquor business may still pose a potential drag in the second half [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised the 12-month target price for China Resources Beer to HKD 37 from HKD 35, based on an unchanged 19 times the estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, discounted for 0.5 years; the "Buy" rating is reiterated [1] - The report indicates that China Resources Beer's core EBITDA exceeded expectations in the first half of this year due to favorable costs and improved operational efficiency; despite ongoing macroeconomic instability and persistent deflation risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company's strong execution in premiumization, market share growth, and efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings per share forecast for China Resources Beer for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, reflecting factors such as a 0.4% to 2.3% increase in beer sales estimates due to easing raw material costs and effective sales expense control, leading to a better gross margin outlook [2] - For the liquor business, Goldman Sachs has lowered sales estimates by 2% to 6.7% due to negative policy impacts, but expects an improvement in gross margins; while administrative expenses are anticipated to rise, they will be offset by a decrease in sales expenses [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs now expects a 3.2% sales growth and an 11.9% increase in recurring EBITDA for 2025, with beer recurring EBITDA projected to grow by 18.2% [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China Resources Beer (00291) to see a moderate acceleration in its beer business in the second half of 2025, with policy impacts normalizing gradually; however, the liquor business may still pose potential drag in the second half [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised the 12-month target price for China Resources Beer to HKD 37 from HKD 35, based on an unchanged 19 times the estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, discounted for 0.5 years; the rating remains "Buy" [1] - The report indicates that China Resources Beer's core EBITDA exceeded expectations in the first half of this year due to favorable cost conditions and improved operational efficiency; despite ongoing macroeconomic instability and persistent deflation risks, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company's strong execution in premiumization, market share growth, and efficiency improvements [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings per share forecasts for China Resources Beer for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 6%, reflecting several factors: 1) For the beer business, sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 0.4% to 2.3% due to ongoing relief in raw material costs and effective control of selling expenses, leading to a better gross margin outlook [2] - The firm expects recurring sales and administrative expenses to decrease, while recurring administrative expenses are anticipated to rise; thus, the recurring EBITDA estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 6.1% to 6.3% [2] - For the liquor business, due to negative policy impacts, sales forecasts have been lowered by 2% to 6.7%, but gross margins are expected to improve; sales and administrative expenses are projected to increase due to rising administrative costs, offset by a decrease in selling expenses [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs now anticipates a 3.2% sales growth and an 11.9% increase in recurring EBITDA for the group in 2025, with an 18.2% growth in recurring EBITDA for the beer segment [2]

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)2025上半年啤酒销量增长优于行业，预期增长趋 势在下半年持续，尽管白酒复苏可能需要时间。该行亦预期下半年利润率继续扩张，并将2025年净利预 测上调7%，反映更好的毛利率趋势及一次性土地处置收益。里昂将润啤目标价从30.4港元上调至33.2港 元，采用啤酒业务9倍12个月远期EV/EBITDA及白酒业务10倍市盈率估值(倍数不变);维持跑赢大市评 级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，华润啤酒(00291)上半年业绩胜预期。次高档及以上啤酒销量 以中高单位数增长，带动平均售价提升。在十五五规划中，润啤将继续以喜力为核心，同时强化次高档 市场作为另一增长动力。该行预期白酒业务在下半年的调整阶段不会进一步恶化，但任何潜在减值仍须 视乎业务营运而定。维持对其"买入"评级;目标价由35港元降至33.8港元，以反映白酒业务疲弱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais reports that China Resources Beer (00291) is expected to outperform the industry in beer sales growth in the first half of 2025, with a continued upward trend anticipated in the second half, despite the recovery of the liquor market taking time [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - The firm anticipates continued expansion of profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 7%, reflecting better gross margin trends and one-time land disposal gains [1] Group 2: Valuation and Ratings - Credit Lyonnais has increased the target price for China Resources Beer from HKD 30.4 to HKD 33.2, using a 9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA for the beer business and a 10x P/E for the liquor business, with multiples remaining unchanged [1] - The firm maintains an "outperform" rating for the stock [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Beer (00291) has exceeded expectations in its first half performance, driven by sales growth in mid-to-high-end beer segments, which has led to an increase in average selling prices [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on Heineken as its core brand while also strengthening its mid-to-high-end market as another growth driver during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The brokerage expects that the adjustment phase of the liquor business in the second half of the year will not worsen further, but any potential impairment will depend on business operations [1] Group 2 - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 35 to HKD 33.8 to reflect the weakness in the liquor business [1]

Core Insights - China Resources Beer reported growth in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with strong performance in its beer business, but a decline in its liquor business due to overall industry pressure [1][7]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of the year was 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2]. - Shareholder profit reached 5.789 billion yuan, reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 48.9%, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - Beer business revenue was 23.161 billion yuan, with a 2.6% year-on-year growth, and shareholder profit from beer increased by 17.3% [2]. - Beer product sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of beer rose by 0.4% due to ongoing premiumization efforts [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully implemented a premiumization strategy, with significant growth in high-end beer sales [3]. - Sales of premium and above beer products grew by over 10%, with Heineken and Snow beer brands showing strong performance [3]. - The company has developed various specialty beers to meet diverse consumer preferences [2]. Channel Development - Online and instant retail channels have seen rapid growth, with overall GMV increasing by nearly 40% and instant retail by 50% year-on-year [6]. - The company is exploring new business models, including customization and contract manufacturing [6]. Liquor Business Performance - The liquor business revenue fell to 781 million yuan, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major products [7]. - The management anticipates a potential recovery in the liquor market, particularly during peak seasons [7]. - The company plans to introduce products in the 100 yuan price range to align with market demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.79 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the beer business will continue to see growth in both premium and mass-market products in the second half of the year, leading to a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [1] - Focus on price recovery in the liquor segment and promoting the reuse of beer channels for light bottle liquor is expected to improve operations [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Three Precision" strategy (cost/expense/investment simplification, refinement, and lean management) and cost advantages, which may lead to sustained profit release [1] Group 3: Investment Forecast - The company is adjusting its profit forecast upwards, expecting earnings per share of 1.85 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 1.93 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for the company's stock has been raised from 37.41 HKD to 38.59 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]