Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [14]. Core Insights - The supply of land is increasingly concentrated in core areas, with both the scale and quality of land supply declining since Q1 2025. In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing an increase of 33.8% [3][7]. - The transaction volume and premium rates for land have also decreased in April and May 2025, primarily due to declining supply quality and uncertain absorption rates. The cumulative transaction area and amount in the first five months of 2025 for 300 cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% and an increase of 24.6%, respectively [8][11]. - Leading real estate companies such as Poly, China Resources, and Zhaoshang have increased their land acquisition efforts, while companies like Jinmao and Yuexiu have shown strong performance in both land acquisition and sales [9][11]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The land supply has further concentrated in core areas, with a notable decline in both scale and quality since Q1. In May 2025, the launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 13.0% month-on-month compared to April, and the core six cities saw a 16.8% increase in launched area [7][8]. Transaction Side - The transaction volume and premium rates have decreased, with the cumulative transaction area in the first five months of 2025 showing a year-on-year decline of 6.3%. The core six cities experienced significant increases in transaction amounts, with a year-on-year increase of 156.1% [8][11]. Real Estate Companies - In May 2025, leading companies such as Poly, China Resources, and Zhaoshang were active in the land market, with total acquisition amounts of 11.1 billion, 9.8 billion, and 5.3 billion respectively. The top three companies in cumulative land acquisition amounts from January to May 2025 were China Resources, Poly, and Greentown, with amounts of 42.7 billion, 42.0 billion, and 37.5 billion respectively [9][11]. Quality of Land Acquisition - In April and May 2025, companies like Yuexiu and Greentown demonstrated superior land acquisition quality. The overall land acquisition quality scores indicated that companies such as China Resources, Yuexiu, and Greentown had higher regional capability and expected profitability [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The investment enthusiasm of real estate companies has rebounded in the first half of the year, with significant increases in land acquisition and sales among top firms, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In the first half of the year, the top 100 real estate companies' land acquisition amount increased by 42% year-on-year, with 9 companies surpassing 20 billion yuan in land purchases [2][3]. - The total new land reserves for the top 100 companies amounted to 11,594 billion yuan, with a new land acquisition amount of 5,968 billion yuan and a construction area of 5,162 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, 42%, and 3.4% respectively [3]. - The competitive landscape for quality land in core cities has intensified, leading to a significant increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities, with an average premium rate exceeding 10% [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The top 10 sales companies accounted for 73% of the new sales volume among the top 100 sales companies, indicating a strengthening dominance of leading firms in the market [4]. - Despite the positive trends, 64% of the top 100 sales companies did not engage in land investment, suggesting a continued decline in market participation [5]. - The focus of land acquisition is increasingly concentrated in the top 20 cities, which accounted for over 65% of the national land transfer fees [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the industry is expected to prioritize inventory reduction and optimization, with most companies maintaining a cautious investment strategy [8]. - The market is anticipated to further differentiate, with state-owned enterprises likely to continue dominating the land market, particularly in core areas of first- and second-tier cities [8].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, real estate companies showed increased enthusiasm for land acquisition, with significant growth in investment among the top 100 firms [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 42% year-on-year increase in land acquisition amounts, with 9 companies surpassing 20 billion yuan in land purchases [2][5]. - The total new value of land acquired by the top 100 firms reached 11,594 billion yuan, with land acquisition amounting to 5,968 billion yuan and building area increasing by 3.4% [5]. - The average premium rate for land sales in 300 cities exceeded 10%, indicating heightened competition for quality land in core cities [3][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The top 20 cities accounted for over 65% of the total land sales nationwide, reflecting a concentration of investment in major urban areas [3][8]. - Despite the growth in land acquisition, 64% of the top 100 sales firms did not engage in land investment, indicating a decline in market participation [7]. - The market is expected to further differentiate, with state-owned enterprises continuing to dominate land acquisition in key urban areas, while financially stable private firms may selectively participate [4][9].

Core Insights - The investment confidence of real estate companies in land acquisition has shown signs of recovery in 2023, particularly in hotspot cities and core areas [1][2] - The total land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies reached 506.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [1] - Despite the overall decline in residential land transaction area across 300 cities, land transfer revenue has significantly increased due to the rise in quality land supply in core cities [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Central and state-owned enterprises dominate land acquisition, with 8 out of the top 10 land acquirers being state-owned [2] - The trend shows significant investments in hotspot cities, with Poly Development leading the investment with 89.9 billion yuan [2] - The land market is characterized by a "shrinking volume but rising prices" phenomenon, with residential land transactions in 100 core cities decreasing by 10.6% but transaction amounts increasing by 22.0% [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Real estate companies are increasingly cautious, balancing a desire for investment opportunities with a cautious approach due to ongoing industry adjustments [1][4] - Companies are focusing on core city land parcels, which has contributed to rising floor prices [4] - The market is witnessing a shift towards high-quality housing products, driven by new national standards and increased consumer demand for better living conditions [3][6] Group 3: Financial Dynamics - The funding for land acquisition primarily comes from self-owned funds, particularly sales returns, due to restrictions on leverage and financial tools [7] - Despite a general decline in sales for the top 100 real estate companies, some firms like Yuexiu and China Jinmao have reported sales growth of around 20% to over 30% [8] - The luxury property market remains strong, with high-net-worth individuals optimizing their asset allocations, contributing to the demand for core area land [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The traditional off-season for the real estate market is approaching, and while debt resolution efforts are accelerating, the financing environment remains constrained [9] - Further macro-level support and policies may be necessary to improve sales performance in the latter half of the year [9]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, China's top 100 real estate companies showed strong investment willingness, with total land acquisition amounting to 506.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [1] - Poly Developments led the land acquisition with a new value of 89.9 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China at 83.1 billion yuan and China Jinmao at 74.9 billion yuan [1] - The land acquisition intensity of real estate companies is positively correlated with their sales performance, with the top four companies exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [1] Group 2 - The land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies is primarily concentrated in core cities such as Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu, where premium land parcels are often sold at high premiums [2] - The average premium rate for residential land sales across 300 cities in China increased by over 20% year-on-year, with an average premium rate exceeding 10% [2] - In the first half of 2025, 47.8% of sales performance from 20 representative companies came from second-tier cities, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year, while first-tier cities' contribution increased by 9 percentage points to 40% [2]

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China spent a total of 506.55 billion yuan on land acquisition in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, a rare positive growth since 2022 [1] - The increase in spending is attributed to the release of numerous high-quality land parcels in core urban areas, although the total area of residential land transactions continues to decline [1] - The focus of real estate companies is shifting towards key first- and second-tier cities, particularly in hotspots like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [1] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with the top 20 cities accounting for over 65% of the total land transfer fees, leaving the remaining cities with only one-third of the market share [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - The median land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies is approximately 2 billion yuan, with the top company having an acquisition amount 14.8 times that of the 30th ranked company [2] - The top 10 companies by land acquisition amount in the first half of the year include Poly Developments, China Overseas, and Greentown [3][4] - Poly Developments led the land acquisition rankings with 41.4 billion yuan, followed closely by China Overseas with 39.3 billion yuan [5] Group 2: Regional Focus - Poly Developments has made significant investments in the four major metropolitan areas, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with land acquisition amounts in the first half of the year exceeding the total for the previous year [6] - China Jinmao has also accelerated its land acquisition, spending 26.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, compared to 18.7 billion yuan for the entire previous year [8] Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The competition among leading real estate companies is intensifying, leading to higher premium rates for quality land parcels, which in turn increases project costs [1] - Companies with weaker financial and operational capabilities risk being pushed out of the top tier, as sustained financial endurance and product upgrade capabilities become critical for success [1] Group 4: Company Performance - Jinmao's total new value added from land acquisition reached 74.9 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery and potential for improved performance in the future [10][12] - Jianfa Real Estate has also shown aggressive land acquisition strategies, achieving a land acquisition intensity of 64.22% in the first half of the year, making it a significant player in the market [13][14] Group 5: Market Challenges - Companies that are currently acquiring less land may face financial constraints or are adjusting their strategies due to past investment mistakes, as seen with Huafa [15][17] - The overall land acquisition intensity among top companies remains high, with a notable shift towards focusing on first- and second-tier cities, potentially squeezing out second- and third-tier companies [20][26]

导 读 预计下半年去库存和优化库存结构仍是行业主旋律，多数房企将维持审慎的投资策略，将销售回 款和现金流安全置于首要位置。 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-6月 · 中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | No. of Days | - 地下 0 2 100 | | | | | | 新增土地价值 | | | 新增土地建面 | | 排名 | 企业名称 | (亿元) | 排名 | 企业名称 | (万平方米) | | 1 | 中海地产 | 506. 1 | 1 | 中海地产 | 256. 1 | | 2 | 保利发展 | 502. 2 | 2 | 绿城中国 | 224. 0 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 443.0 | 3 | 保利发展 | 216. 2 | | 4 | 中国金茂 | 392. 1 | 4 | 建发房产 | 161.8 | | 5 | 建发房产 | 350. 2 | 5 | 邦泰集团 | 146. 1 | | 6 | 华润置城 | 347.6 | 6 | 招商蛇口 | 124. 3 | | 7 | 滨江 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization in sales for the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued supportive fiscal and monetary policies to aid in the industry's recovery [8] - The top 100 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year sales decline of 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with a total sales amount of 17,820 billion yuan [5] - The average sales price for the top 100 companies was 20,727.2 yuan per square meter, indicating a trend of higher prices among leading firms [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was 17,820 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative equity sales area of 113,013.6 million square meters, also down 11.5% [5] - The sales performance varied across different tiers, with the top 10, top 50, and top 100 companies showing declines of 14.0%, 11.5%, and 11.4% respectively [6] Company Insights - Poly Development maintained the largest sales scale, while China Jinmao and Jianfa Real Estate showed strong monthly sales performance in June 2025, with increases of 27.9% and 17.3% year-on-year respectively [7] - The top five companies by sales in the first half of 2025 were Poly Development, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, with respective cumulative sales amounts of 1,452.0 billion, 1,201.3 billion, 1,103.0 billion, 888.9 billion, and 803.0 billion yuan [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development, as well as firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery [8]

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales amount of 1,652.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with the decline rate widening by 3.8 percentage points compared to the first five months of the year [1][5] - In June 2025, the sales amount reached 338.96 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 14.7%, with nearly 60% of the top 100 companies experiencing month-on-month growth [2][4] - The market is showing signs of stabilization, with the transaction volume in 30 key cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year, and a weak recovery trend expected to continue into July [15] Sales Performance - The number of companies with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan decreased to 3, down from 5 in the same period last year [1][14] - The sales threshold for the top 30 companies increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 11.98 billion yuan, while the thresholds for other tiers decreased [8] - Among the top 100 companies, the sales performance varied significantly across different tiers, with the top 21-30 tier remaining stable, while the top 10, 11-20, and 51-100 tiers saw declines [11] Company Rankings - The leading companies by total sales in the first half of 2025 were Poly Developments with 145.2 billion yuan, China Overseas with 120.13 billion yuan, and China Resources Land with 110.3 billion yuan [14][19] - A total of 45 companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is one less than the previous year [14] Market Trends - The overall real estate market is stabilizing, with June's new home transaction volume in key cities reaching 10.34 million square meters, remaining stable compared to last year [15] - The differentiation between first-tier and second/third-tier cities is intensifying, with first-tier cities showing stronger resilience and second/third-tier cities experiencing a downturn [15] - The expected transaction volume for July is anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a lower base from the previous year [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent land auctions in various Chinese cities, highlighting the competitive bidding and pricing trends in the residential land market. Group 1: Wuhan Land Auction - On June 30, Wuhan auctioned 5 residential land parcels, with 3 sold at the base price and 2 at a premium, totaling 28.997 billion yuan [2][6]. - The most competitive parcel in Jiang'an District attracted at least 11 bidders, with Green City winning it for 6.645 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 27,920 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 54.36% [2][7]. - A parcel in Wuchang District was won by Jianfa for 12.202 billion yuan, with a floor price of 16,055 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 22% [8]. Group 2: Chengdu Land Auction - Chengdu auctioned 1 residential land parcel in Jin Niu District, which attracted 8 bidders, ultimately won by China Energy Construction for a floor price of 20,200 yuan per square meter, totaling 17.48 billion yuan with a premium rate of 23.93% [3][10]. Group 3: Tianjin Land Auction - Tianjin conducted an auction for 15 residential land parcels, with a total transaction amount of 87.77 billion yuan [11]. - A parcel in Hexi District was acquired by China Overseas for 7.4 billion yuan, with a floor price of 21,002 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 11.45%. The remaining 14 parcels were sold at the base price [12]. Group 4: Guangzhou Land Auction - Guangzhou auctioned 2 residential land parcels, both sold at the base price, totaling 24.96 billion yuan [5][13]. - The Baiyun District parcel was acquired by Guangzhou Metro Group at a base price of 21.83 billion yuan, with a floor price of 19,000 yuan per square meter, and the Liwan District parcel was won by Jixun Real Estate for 3.13 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,000 yuan per square meter [14][15].