Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on power generation assets in regions with tight supply-demand balance and favorable competition dynamics, particularly recommending companies like Anhui Energy and Huadian International in the thermal power sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the carbon neutrality sector rising by 3.52% and the environmental protection sector increasing by 3.07% during the week [12]. - It emphasizes the importance of market dynamics and regulatory changes, such as the approval of the cross-grid electricity trading mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [75]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.36% during the week [12]. - The thermal power sector is recommended for investment due to its potential for asset value reassessment in regions with tight electricity supply [4]. Industry News - The report discusses the recent regulatory developments aimed at enhancing the electricity market's efficiency and interconnectivity, including the implementation of a market mechanism for cross-grid electricity trading [75]. - It also notes the ongoing reforms in the renewable energy sector, particularly in Hainan Province, to correct market interventions and ensure fair pricing for new energy projects [75]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends Anhui Energy and Huadian International due to their strategic positioning in competitive markets [4]. - In the hydropower sector, it suggests focusing on Yangtze Power, while for nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power is highlighted as a key player [4]. - In the renewable energy segment, Longyuan Power is identified as a leading wind power operator worth monitoring [4].

证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-043 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2025 年第五期超短期融资券发行的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 17 日召开 的 2024 年度股东大会审议通过了《关于龙源电力集团股份有限公司在境内申请 注册及发行债务融资工具一般性授权的议案》，批准并同意授权董事会决定及处 理公司以一次性或分期的形式通过中国证监会、深圳证券交易所、国家发展改革 委、中国保险资产管理业协会等机构审批、注册、登记、发行或设立债务融资工 具，新增规模合计不超过人民币 500 亿元（含 500 亿元）；以统一注册或分品种 注册的形式向中国银行间市场交易商协会注册债务融资工具，可采取分期方式发 行，新增规模合计不超过人民币 800 亿元（含 800 亿元）；股东大会同意董事会 在授权范围内转授权公司管理层处理相关事宜。 董 事 会 2025 年 7 月 11 日 2 | 超短期融资券全称 | 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 | | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent approval of the 500 MW/1000 MWh shared energy storage project by Longyuan Power's Guangxi company marks a significant step in enhancing clean energy storage capabilities in the region [1] Group 1: Project Details - The energy storage station is located in Beiliu City, Yulin, Guangxi, with a planned capacity of 500 MW and an area of approximately 100 acres [1] - The project will utilize lithium iron phosphate batteries and will be equipped with 100 energy storage units, each consisting of a battery unit and a PCS boosting unit [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - Once operational, the facility can store 1 million kWh of clean electricity per charge, with an expected annual charge and discharge cycle of no less than 250 times [1] - The annual charge and discharge volume is projected to be around 250 million kWh, which will reduce standard coal consumption by approximately 75,000 tons and decrease carbon dioxide emissions by about 195,000 tons compared to equivalent thermal power plants [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [22]. Core Insights - The export value of China's construction machinery in May 2025 reached USD 5.024 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.51%. Cumulative exports from January to May totaled USD 23.095 billion, up 8.98% year-on-year. The top three export destinations were Russia, the United States, and Indonesia [2]. - The export of excavators in May amounted to USD 889 million, with a year-on-year growth of 26.57%. From January to May, the cumulative export value was USD 4.001 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.81% [2]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a short-term rise in polysilicon prices, while prices in the battery segment fell. The average price for N-type polysilicon was CNY 36 per kilogram, and for granular silicon, it was CNY 34 per kilogram. The demand in downstream segments remains weak, leading to limited market transactions [2]. - The report indicates that the overseas market for construction machinery will continue to expand due to the Belt and Road Initiative and the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufacturers. Domestic demand for infrastructure will also drive replacement needs, indicating a clear upward trend in the overall cycle [2]. Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the indices for machinery equipment, power equipment, and automotive sectors changed by 0.26%, 1.99%, and 0.1%, respectively, ranking 24th, 9th, and 25th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [7][10]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a significant increase of 5.76%, while wind power equipment decreased by 0.86% during the same period [10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On July 4, the "Robot Industry Empowerment Alliance" was established in Jinan, releasing a list of 87 application scenarios across 12 fields, with a total investment of CNY 14.26 billion [18]. - On July 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with photovoltaic manufacturing companies, which boosted industry confidence [18]. - On July 3, the second phase of a major integrated project for distributed photovoltaic, energy storage, and charging piles was put into operation, with an installed capacity of 9,300 kilowatts [18]. - On July 2, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon showed a slight increase, indicating a warming trend in the market despite limited new orders [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]

Company News - Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) launched the world's first L3-level AI car, the Xpeng G7, with a starting price of 195,800 yuan [1] - Automotive dealer Anlijie announced a distribution agreement with Geely Automobile (00175.HK) to introduce Geely's new energy vehicles to the Italian market [1] - Alibaba (09988.HK) announced the pricing of a zero-coupon exchangeable bond issuance amounting to 12.023 billion HKD [1] - Sunac China (01918.HK) reported a contract sales amount of 23.55 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 10.39% [1] - Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) stated it will follow the latest trends in global stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, but currently has no plans to develop stablecoins [1] - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) has been approved to establish China Merchants Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [1] - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. reduced its stake in SMIC (00981.HK) from 5.01% to 4.97% as of July 2, with an average share price of 43.8988 HKD [1] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 61.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 11% [1] - Longyuan Power (00916.HK) completed a total power generation of approximately 39.6525 million MWh in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% [1]

证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-042 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 2025年6月发电量数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）2025 年 6 月按合并报 表口径完成发电量 5,781,238 兆瓦时，较 2024 年同期同比增长 1.56%，剔除火电 影响同比增长 18.07%。本月风电发电量同比增长 4.15%，光伏发电量同比增长 99.32%。 截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，本公司 2025 年累计完成发电量 39,652,477 兆瓦时， 较 2024 年同期同比下降 1.07%，剔除火电影响同比增长 12.73%，其中风电增长 6.07%，光伏增长 71.37%。 1 | | 2025 年 6 月 | 2024 年 6 月 | 6 月同比 | 2025 年 | 2024 年 | 年累计发 电量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业务板块及地区分布 | 发电量 | 发电量 | 变化率 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power (001289) announced that it achieved a total power generation of 5.7812 million MWh by June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, with an 18.07% increase when excluding the impact of thermal power generation [1] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - The total power generation for the period reached 5.7812 million MWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.56% [1] - Excluding the impact of thermal power, the year-on-year growth in power generation was 18.07% [1] - Wind power generation increased by 4.15% year-on-year, while solar power generation saw a significant increase of 99.32% [1] Group 2: Cumulative Power Generation - As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative power generation was 39.6525 million MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.07% [1] - When excluding the impact of thermal power, the cumulative power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [1] - Wind power generation for the cumulative period grew by 6.07%, and solar power generation increased by 71.37% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Longyuan Power, which closed at 16.48 yuan, up 1.85%, with a rolling PE ratio of 23.73, marking a new low in 17 days, and a total market capitalization of 137.77 billion yuan [1] - Longyuan Power's industry average PE ratio is 23.18, with a median of 19.90, placing the company at the 51st position in the industry ranking [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 15 institutions hold shares in Longyuan Power, including 10 funds, 4 others, and 1 trust, with a total holding of 4,923.13 million shares valued at 81.77 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Longyuan Power's main business focuses on wind and solar power generation, with primary products being electricity and heat [1] - The latest performance report for the first quarter of 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.00%, and a net profit of 1.90 billion yuan, down 22.07%, with a gross profit margin of 42.61% [1] - The PE (TTM) for Longyuan Power is 23.73, while the industry average is 23.18, and the industry median is 19.90 [2]