Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's China Credit 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **China Credit Market**: The report emphasizes a selective approach to investing in China credits, highlighting a spectrum of risk from high-quality TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) companies to solid SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises) and struggling property firms [1][5][10]. Core Insights Economic Outlook - **2025 Growth**: The Chinese economy is projected to grow approximately 5% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong exports and fiscal expansion despite high U.S. tariffs [5][10]. - **2026 Forecast**: A slowdown to 4.4% growth is anticipated in 2026 due to weaker exports and consumption, with real estate investment expected to contract by 10% [5][11]. China TMT Sector - **Top Picks**: J.P. Morgan recommends Alibaba '35s/'54s and Weibo '30s as top picks due to their solid balance sheets and improving fundamentals [1][5][66]. - **Investment Cycle**: TMT companies are in a heavy investment cycle focusing on AI and new initiatives like food delivery, with Alibaba aggressively expanding its market share [29][30]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Intense competition in food delivery is noted, particularly with Alibaba's expansion impacting Meituan's profitability [30][68]. China SOE Sector - **Defensive Exposure**: China National Chemical is recommended for defensive exposure, with strong demand expected to absorb any potential spread widening from U.S. sanctions [5][66]. - **Spread Compression**: SOE credits have seen significant spread compression, with the JACI China single-A Corporate Index tightening to a 10-year low [78][79]. China Property Sector - **Cautious Sentiment**: The property market remains fragile, with Vanke's bond extension raising concerns. Longfor is the only company rated as Overweight due to its solid balance sheet and transformation to a rental model [1][5][66]. - **Market Risks**: Investor sentiment is expected to remain weak, and banks may tighten funding to private developers [5][66]. Additional Important Insights - **Technical Support**: The report notes that technical factors are supportive of China credits, with limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [5][15]. - **Valuation Trends**: China credits have experienced strong compression, with the JACI China IG Corp Index tightening significantly over the past year [15][16]. - **Funding Strategies**: TMT companies are exploring alternative funding channels, including exchangeable bonds and CNH bonds, to leverage lower costs and increased demand [44][66]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report advocates for a selective investment strategy in China credits, focusing on high-quality TMT names and defensive SOEs while remaining cautious in the property sector due to ongoing risks and market fragility [1][5][66].

Summary of Longfor Group Conference Call Company Overview - Longfor Group is a well-established real estate company founded in 1993, headquartered in Chongqing, with over 30 years of development history. The company operates in three main segments: development, operation, and services, covering both first and second-tier cities [5][4]. Key Points and Arguments Business Segments - Longfor's commercial investment segment is a key differentiator, with 89 operational malls covering over 9.4 million square meters by the end of 2025, primarily located in first and second-tier cities, showcasing significant location advantages and growth potential [2][6]. - The rental efficiency of Longfor's commercial properties showed a narrowing decline in the first half of 2025, indicating a transition into a phase of realized benefits from upgrades and renovations of older projects [2][9]. - The C-REITs framework provides a revaluation opportunity for Longfor's commercial real estate, with an implied equity value exceeding 199.3 billion RMB if revalued at a capitalization rate close to 5% [2][10]. Financial Health - Longfor's financing situation is robust, with interest-bearing debt decreasing from nearly 210 billion RMB in 2022 to under 170 billion RMB mid-year 2023, maintaining a healthy cash flow and compliance with financial regulations [3][16]. - The company’s financing costs have reduced by approximately 60 basis points to 3.58% in 2025, comparable to state-owned enterprises, indicating strong financial security [18][19]. Growth Potential - The service segment, although not separately listed, is considered highly valuable, with significant growth potential driven by technological empowerment [11][22]. - Longfor's smart living segment has a third-party project ratio of 60% and a non-residential business ratio of 30%, with a gross margin significantly above the industry average [2][12][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Longfor's development business faced a 32% year-on-year decline in sales amounting to approximately 35 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, but the company remains competitive in first and second-tier cities [15][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 3.7 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 4.8 billion RMB in 2026, and around 7.3 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a recovery in performance despite current market challenges [19][20]. Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The fair value assessment of Longfor suggests a total equity value of approximately 114.7 billion RMB, with a target price of 15.21 HKD, indicating over 50% potential upside [20][21]. - The undervaluation of Longfor is attributed to three main factors: the revaluation potential of the commercial operations, the growth potential of the service segment, and the resilience of the development business amidst market adjustments [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - Longfor's commercial projects are strategically located in first and second-tier cities, with over 80 malls being TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) projects, which are expected to have strong long-term advantages [7][8]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate of nearly 30% in mall opening area from 2013 to 2022, with a projected annualized growth rate of 14% from 2022 to mid-2025 [8][9]. - Longfor's smart manufacturing segment has seen a year-on-year increase of 87% in newly signed area, ranking fifth in the industry, showcasing its competitive edge and extensive collaboration with state-owned enterprises [14][15].

核心内容 合约销售 30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 1、合约销售：30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 2、企业拿地：头部央国企核心城市补仓，整体投资保持谨慎 3、企业融资：单月总量环比回升，成本持续走低 4、组织动态：龙湖华发等多家房企精简层级，提升效能 ◎ 文 / CRIC研究中心 0 1 | 企业简称 | 2025年11月 | 車月环比 | 2025年1-11月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 車月金额 | | 累计金额 | 月均销售金额 | | 保利发展 | 179.5 | -15. 0% | 2408. 0 | 218.9 | | 中海地产 | 221. 4 | 18. 6% | 2113.0 | 192. 1 | | 未润量瓶 | 230. 0 | 51. 3% | 1926. 0 | 175. 1 | | 招商蛇口 | 144.5 | -6. 0% | 1705. 2 | 155.0 | | 绿城中国 | 125.0 | 0. 0% | 1329.0 | 120. 8 | | 万科地产 | 94.2 | -34. 4% | 1240. ...

Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, 30 key listed real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 162.36 billion yuan, with a cumulative performance of 1,981.13 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [1] - Among the 30 companies, seven reported month-on-month sales growth in November, with China Resources Land showing the highest growth rate [1] - Cumulatively, China Jinmao and Greenland Holdings recorded sales growth from January to November 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Real estate companies are adopting a cautious investment approach, focusing on existing project development and sales rather than acquiring new land [5] - In November, the total investment amount for the monitored 30 companies was approximately 23.4 billion yuan, with a land acquisition area of 1.31 million square meters [5] - 13 companies reported new land reserves, with major acquisitions by state-owned enterprises like China Overseas Land and Investment and Greenland China [5] Group 3: Financing Activities - In November 2025, the total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies reached 43.279 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 24% [8] - The cumulative financing amount from January to November 2025 was 390.236 billion yuan, with domestic debt financing accounting for 26.126 billion yuan and foreign debt financing increasing significantly [8] - The average financing cost for new bond financing was 2.87%, showing a decrease compared to 2024 [8][10] Group 4: Organizational Adjustments - Many real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency, with Dragon Lake Group merging regional operations to form a new business structure [12] - New City Holdings is splitting its light asset business into two companies to capture the construction market, while also restructuring its real estate development division [13] - CIFI Group has implemented a significant organizational overhaul, consolidating multiple divisions into three major regional business units to focus on core markets [14]

核心内容 ◎ 文 / CRIC研究中心 | 企业简称 | 2025年11月 | 車月环比 | 2025年1-11月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 車月金额 | | 累计金额 | 月均销售金额 | | 保利发展 | 179.5 | -15.0% | 2408. 0 | 218.9 | | 中海地产 | 221. 4 | 18. 6% | 2113.0 | 192. 1 | | 未润置矩 | 230. 0 | 51. 3% | 1926. 0 | 175. 1 | | 招商蛇口 | 144.5 | -6. 0% | 1705. 2 | 155.0 | | 绿城中国 | 125.0 | 0. 0% | 1329. 0 | 120. 8 | | 万科地产 | 94.2 | -34. 4% | 1240. 8 | 112.8 | | 建发房产 | 60. 0 | -45. 2% | 1125. 1 | 102. 3 | | 中国金茂 | 80. 0 | -33. 3% | 1006. 8 | 91.5 | | 越秀地产 | 51.0 | -58. 5% | 972. 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 龍湖集團控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00960 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 7,041,631,192 | | 0 | | 7,041,631,192 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 7,041,631,192 | | 0 | | 7,041,631,192 | 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Digital Intelligence Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on the theme "AI + Restructuring Everything" and highlighting the transformative impact of AI on daily life, akin to the mobile internet revolution 15 years ago [1][2] Group 1: AI Transformation - The new wave of AI-driven transformation differs from traditional digitalization, emphasizing individual productivity enhancement rather than top-down management approaches [1][2] - AI transformation is based on frontline scenarios, which is essential for digital upgrades in enterprises [1][2] - An example from Longfor Group illustrates that AI can optimize property management, saving millions in costs through data analysis [1][2] Group 2: Company Profile and Achievements - Qian Ding Data Science, a high-tech company incubated by Longfor Group, has over a thousand R&D team members and serves more than 3,600 enterprises by integrating AI, BIM, IoT, and digital twin technologies [3] - Qian Ding Data Science won the "AI Intelligent Agent Innovation Product" award at the conference, with its AI platform achieving over 95% accuracy in vertical field algorithm models [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The application rate of new intelligent terminals and agents is expected to exceed 70% by 2027, with China fully entering an intelligent society by 2035 [3] - Companies and individuals are eager to acquire AI capabilities to enhance productivity, but the realization of AI's value may take 5 to 10 years [3][4] - High-quality data is crucial for training algorithms and achieving meaningful AI transformation, indicating that results are not immediate [3][4] Group 4: Human-AI Collaboration - AI is not a panacea and has specific strengths; it is not in opposition to humans but rather aims for a synergy between human and machine capabilities [4] - Longfor Group has initiated multiple AI training sessions for its employees, including middle and senior management, to enhance AI proficiency within the organization starting in 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.36% [1] - Most property stocks declined, with Vanke Enterprises dropping over 7%, Shimao Group falling over 6%, and Longfor Group decreasing over 3% [1] - Tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Xiaomi rising over 2% and Alibaba falling over 2% [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart surged over 6%, and Zhufeng Gold increased over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate sector is experiencing a decline, with several major companies reporting significant stock price drops [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Vanke Enterprises has seen a decline of over 5% in its stock price [2] - Shimao Group's stock has dropped by more than 3% [2] - CIFI Holdings, Longfor Group, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group have all experienced declines exceeding 2% [2]