Group 1 - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability in the first half of the year due to falling raw material costs and cost-cutting measures [2][4][5] - Despite the overall recovery in performance, the steel sector experienced a collective pullback in stock prices on July 15, with notable declines in companies such as China Iron Titanium and Chongqing Steel [2][4] - A total of 24 A-share steel companies have released mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, with 19 reporting substantial profit improvements, including several companies achieving double or triple-digit profit growth [4][5] Group 2 - The steel industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market, limited infrastructure investment, and increased export pressure, leading to a significant decline in steel prices and ongoing profitability pressure [4][6] - Companies are addressing demand contraction by eliminating outdated production capacity, optimizing product structures, and enhancing product value, which has contributed to profit recovery [5][6] - The current supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry are improving, with major steel companies announcing production cuts under the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to strengthen supply contraction [6]

[Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%E9%87%8D%E5%BA%86%E9%92%A2%E9%93%81%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%BD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B82025%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A) This report provides the company's preliminary semi-annual performance forecast for 2025, detailing the expected significant reduction in net loss, the underlying operational improvements, and associated risk disclosures [Summary of Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5) The company projects a significant reduction in net loss for H1 2025, with attributable net loss expected between RMB 120 million and RMB 140 million, representing a substantial year-on-year improvement Key Performance Indicators for H1 2025 Performance Forecast | Indicator | H1 2025 (Estimated, RMB) | H1 2024 (Prior Period, RMB) | Year-on-Year Change (RMB) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | -140 million to -120 million | -689 million | Loss reduced by 549 million to 569 million | | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (Excluding Non-Recurring Items) | -150 million to -130 million | -691 million | Loss reduced by 541 million to 561 million | | Earnings Per Share | N/A | -0.08/share | N/A | - The data in this performance forecast has not been audited by an accounting firm[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Analysis of Performance Change Reasons](index=2&type=section&id=%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%BB%E8%A6%81%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0) The substantial reduction in loss is primarily attributed to the company's effective strategies in procurement, sales, and stringent production cost control, leading to improved efficiency and market presence - Integrated procurement and sales transformation enhanced business capabilities: **significant cost reduction** achieved through localized procurement and seizing price reduction opportunities; sales achieved breakthroughs in new user development, market share, and special steel proportion through agile linkage, regional coordination, and product structure optimization[7](index=7&type=chunk) - **Significant cost control achievements**: The company maintained a consistent intensive production model, effectively reducing product manufacturing costs through refined scheduling and strict process control, and significantly improving key production indicators such as blast furnace utilization, smelting cycle, and hot charging rate[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Risk Warning and Other Disclosures](index=2&type=section&id=%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E6%8F%90%E7%A4%BA) The company confirms no material uncertainties affecting the forecast's accuracy, while reminding investors that the disclosed data is preliminary and subject to the final semi-annual report - The company declares no significant uncertain factors exist that would affect the accuracy of this performance forecast[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Investors are reminded that the forecast data represents preliminary accounting results, and the final accurate financial data will be based on the company's officially disclosed 2025 semi-annual report[9](index=9&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Steel (601005) expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first half of 2025 in the range of -140 million to -120 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the same period last year by approximately 549 million to 569 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, for the first half of 2025 to be between -150 million and -130 million yuan, which represents a reduction in losses of about 541 million to 561 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1]

Group 1 - Thailand's Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on cold-rolled carbon steel products from mainland China, following requests from domestic companies [1] - The investigation aims to determine if the products have been slightly altered to circumvent existing anti-dumping measures [1] - Thailand previously imposed anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled carbon steel from mainland China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, with the current measures set to expire on January 24, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and its five subsidiaries are involved in the investigation, including Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [2] - The Maanshan Group and its six subsidiaries, including Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and China BaoWu Steel Group Corporation Limited, are also implicated [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong steel stocks experienced a significant rally, with Chongqing Steel rising over 15% [1] - Tian Gong International increased by 7%, while China Iron Titanium and Maanshan Steel both rose over 5% [1] - China Aluminum saw an increase of over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78%, gaining 185 points to close at 24,073 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.29% [1] - The trading volume in Hong Kong reached HKD 117.2 billion in the morning session [1] - Stablecoin-related stocks surged, with Guotai Junan International rising by 16%, Multi-Point Smart increasing by 8%, and OSL Group also up by 8% [1] Group 2 - Jinyong Investment experienced a 150% surge due to a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore stablecoin applications [2] - Kuaishou-W saw a 3% increase, with institutions expecting the company's Q2 performance to meet market expectations [2] - Gold stocks rebounded in the morning session, with Tongguan Gold rising by 6% and China Gold International increasing by 3.82% [2] Group 3 - Huitongda Network rose over 7% after applying for full circulation of H-shares, which is expected to enhance stock liquidity and investment attractiveness [3] Group 4 - Basestone Pharmaceuticals-B increased by over 4% after granting commercialization rights for Sugli to Gentili in Western Europe and the UK [4] Group 5 - GCL-Poly Energy rose over 9%, with the polysilicon segment potentially becoming a breakthrough point for reversing internal competition, and the company is expected to achieve profitability [5] Group 6 - China Rare Earth Holdings rose over 7% after a failed transaction involving the sale of an Australian gold mine, and plans to spin off its business through an introduction [6] Group 7 - Hon Teng Precision rose by 8.8%, driven by strong performance in AI servers and iPhone business, with Foxconn showing steady growth in Q2 [7] Group 8 - Zhaoyan New Drug increased by over 10%, assisting in the approval of the restructuring of human coagulation factor VIIa for Chengdu Tianqing [8] Group 9 - Steel stocks saw a midday rally, with Chongqing Steel rising by 11%, as institutions expect improvements in industry supply and demand [9]

Core Insights - The data indicates significant trading volume increases for various companies, suggesting heightened investor interest and potential market movements [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Companies with Notable Volume Increases - 阳光能源 (00757) reported a volume ratio of 2.35, indicating strong trading activity [2] - 长城汽车 (02333) had a volume ratio of 2.21, reflecting increased investor engagement [2] - 郑煤机 (00564) showed a volume ratio of 1.92, suggesting a notable rise in trading [2] Group 2: Additional Companies with Increased Trading Activity - 万国数据-SW (09698) recorded a volume ratio of 1.83, indicating significant market interest [2] - 映恩生物-B (09606) had a volume ratio of 1.78, reflecting heightened trading activity [2] - 超盈国际控股 (02111) reported a volume ratio of 1.71, suggesting increased investor focus [2] Group 3: Companies with Moderate Volume Ratios - 中国能源建设 (03996) had a volume ratio of 1.70, indicating a solid level of trading activity [2] - 亚信科技 (01675) reported a volume ratio of 1.60, reflecting moderate investor interest [2] - 金宝通 (00320) showed a volume ratio of 1.53, suggesting a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Companies with Lower Volume Ratios - 中国水务 (00855) had a volume ratio of 1.52, indicating stable trading activity [2] - 广汽集团 (02238) reported a volume ratio of 1.52, reflecting consistent investor engagement [2] - 凯莱英 (06821) showed a volume ratio of 1.52, suggesting steady trading interest [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus [6][9][12]. - Due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US ADP employment change in June was -33,000, significantly lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000. This was the first employment contraction since March 2023, indicating weakness in the US labor market. As the employment data weakened, the market increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, with the probability rising from 20% to 27.4% [6]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will implement a 0% tariff on US imports, while Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face a 20% tariff, and goods deemed to be "transshipped through Vietnam" will be subject to a 40% tariff, targeting China. The previous agreement framework with China may face uncertainties. In the overnight market, although the US employment data was weak, the trade news had a greater impact. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields declined at both short and long ends, gold prices increased, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly fell, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate remained basically flat. Attention should be paid to the US non-farm payroll data today, as the weak ADP data does not necessarily mean the non-farm payroll data will be weak [6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.09%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13%. The market showed a differentiated adjustment trend. Although the broader market was supported by banks and did not decline, individual stocks tumbled. Similar to the previous rise of Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong stocks, Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. in Hong Kong stocks soared by 91.11%, mainly affected by a 30% limit on sintering machines in Tangshan, which also drove up the A-share steel sector and other cyclical sectors. Cyclical industries seem to be starting a new round of supply-side reform, consistent with the "anti-involution" tone. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors may be problematic. Among sectors, steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and banking rose, while electronics, communications, military, computer, and beauty care sectors led the decline. There were 1,943 rising stocks and 3,282 falling stocks in the entire market [2][7]. - The People's Bank of China issued the "Administrative Measures for Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Industry Institutions," requiring industry institutions to submit large transaction reports within 5 working days for transactions with a single or daily cumulative amount of over RMB 100,000 [7]. 1.3 Important News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on any goods entering US territory, and a 40% tariff will be imposed on transshipped goods. Vietnamese state media reported that the US will significantly reduce tariffs on various Vietnamese products [9]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that there is currently no urgency to change policies [10]. - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technology empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over RMB 300 billion to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the RMB 800 billion list of "two major" construction projects for this year has been fully issued [10]. - European Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting is an important meeting at a critical juncture [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will prevent and control risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds in an orderly manner, and continuously optimize capital market mechanisms such as stock and bond financing and mergers and acquisitions to promote the efficient concentration of factors in the most promising areas [10]. - In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [11]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in June were 1.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 29% [11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus. In the A-share market, due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as their corresponding futures contracts such as IH2507, IF2507, IC2507, and IM2507 [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, current points, daily, weekly, and monthly returns of major indices such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as the performance of various sectors [39]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of major indices [40][41]. - Additionally, the report shows the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases [43][47][49]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides data on central bank open market operations and Shibor interest rate levels to track market liquidity [54][55][56].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from Northbound trading, with a total of HKD 30.47 billion in net sales on July 3, 2023, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading saw a net sell of HKD 30.47 billion, with HKD 18.66 billion from Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 11.81 billion from Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included Meituan-W (03690), SMIC (00981), and Innovent Biologics (01801) [1]. - The most sold stocks were Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent (00700), and Guotai Junan International (01788) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net sell of HKD 32.26 billion, with a total trading volume of HKD 71.91 billion, indicating a strong sell-off [2]. - Meituan-W (03690) received a net buy of HKD 9.87 billion, supported by the announcement of a new initiative to invest in 1,200 "Raccoon Canteens" over three years [4]. - SMIC (00981) saw a net buy of HKD 4.78 billion following the U.S. government's lifting of export restrictions on certain chip design software [5]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from new supportive policies from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission [5]. - The social services sector is projected to experience valuation recovery due to favorable government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 4: Other Notable Stocks - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net buy of HKD 22.71 million, with the CEO addressing order fulfillment priorities [6]. - Multi-point Smart (02586) received a net buy of HKD 61.61 million as it prepares to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong steel sector stocks have experienced a decline, with Chongqing Steel (01053.HK) dropping by 19% and Ansteel (00347.HK) falling by 3% [1]