花旗发表研究报告指，因应东方甄选的商业模式从依赖龙头主播转向规模化会员平台，将2025至27财年 收入预测分别下调36%、31%及30%，盈利预测分别下调69%、30%及26%。该行将其目标价由18.5港元 上调至33港元，维持"买入"评级，认为转型成效仍然需要经多个季度的表现来验证。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan has significantly declined due to rumors regarding key personnel changes, highlighting the company's vulnerability to leadership instability and the need for a robust operational model independent of individual figures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - As of September 2, Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock closed at HKD 25.1 per share, down 3.61%, marking a significant drop from its recent high of HKD 53.7 on August 19, effectively halving its value [1]. - The stock experienced a sharp decline of 20.89% in a single day following rumors about CEO Zhou Chenggang being investigated, followed by further declines due to speculation about former CEO Sun Dongxu's departure [1]. Group 2: Leadership Changes and Strategic Shifts - The departure of key figures like Dong Yuhui and Sun Dongxu has raised questions about the company's future, emphasizing the importance of leadership in maintaining operational stability [2][3]. - The company is transitioning from a "host-driven" model to a "product-driven" approach, focusing on supply chain and self-operated products, which reflects a strategic evolution in its business model [2][3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Management Concerns - Sun Dongxu's role was crucial in executing the company's strategy and building its supply chain, having been with the company for 18 years and witnessing its growth from inception [3]. - The company must demonstrate that it has a solid supply chain, mature management mechanisms, and a sustainable business model that can function without reliance on high-profile individuals [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations for Leadership - The founder, Yu Minhong, needs to establish that the company can thrive without key individuals, including himself, as he approaches the age of considering succession planning [4]. - The ongoing challenge for the company is to prove its resilience and operational independence in the face of leadership changes, which is a common concern for many publicly traded companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongfang Zhenxuan has significantly declined due to rumors regarding key personnel changes, highlighting the company's vulnerability to leadership instability and the ongoing transformation of its business model from "influencer-driven" to "product-driven" [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - As of September 2, Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock closed at HKD 25.1 per share, down 3.61%, marking a significant drop from its recent high of HKD 53.7 on August 19, effectively "halving" its value [1]. - The stock experienced a single-day drop of 20.89% following rumors about CEO Zhou Chenggang being investigated, indicating the market's sensitivity to leadership news [1]. Group 2: Leadership Changes and Strategic Shift - The departure of key figures, including former CEO Sun Dongxu, has raised questions about the company's future stability and operational effectiveness [2][3]. - The company is transitioning its focus from relying on prominent influencers to enhancing its supply chain and self-operated products, aiming to establish a model akin to "online Sam's Club" [2]. Group 3: Importance of Supply Chain and Management - Sun Dongxu's role was crucial in executing the company's strategy and building its supply chain, having been with the company for 18 years and witnessing its growth from inception [3]. - The company must demonstrate that it possesses a robust supply chain, mature management mechanisms, and a sustainable business model, independent of any single high-profile executive [4]. Group 4: Broader Implications for the Industry - The challenges faced by Dongfang Zhenxuan reflect a broader issue in the market where companies heavily reliant on key individuals may struggle during leadership transitions [4]. - The founder, Yu Minhong, must now prove that the company can thrive without its top influencers, which is critical for long-term sustainability [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights issues regarding the lack of clarity in ingredient lists for food products sold in live-streaming sessions, specifically mentioning companies like "Haidilao," "Dongfang Zhenxuan," and "Gaotu Jiapin" [1] - It reports that certain products require consumers to place an order before obtaining accurate ingredient information, raising concerns about transparency [1] - The article notes that during live-streaming sales on July 25 and August 20, "Dongfang Zhenxuan" did not display ingredient lists on product detail pages, only indicating "see packaging for ingredient list" or showing nutritional components [1] Group 2 - Customer service provided ingredient lists only after inquiries, indicating a lack of proactive disclosure [1] - The nutritional information for a product is provided, showing energy content of 511 KJ per 100g, with protein at 25.9g, fat at 1.6g, carbohydrates at 0.7g, and sodium at 863mg [2] - The article emphasizes the need for companies to improve the visibility of ingredient information to enhance consumer trust and compliance with regulations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (1797.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to the impact of the departure of key figure Dong Yuhui and the ongoing challenges in its business operations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the total revenue from continuing operations (self-operated products and live e-commerce) was 4.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.7% compared to 6.5 billion yuan in fiscal year 2024 [1] - The net profit for fiscal year 2025 was 6.2 million yuan, a substantial drop from 250 million yuan in fiscal year 2024 [1] - In the first half of fiscal year 2025 (June to November 2024), total revenue decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to 2.187 billion yuan, with a net loss of 96.5 million yuan compared to a loss of 161 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Impact of Leadership Changes - The departure of Dong Yuhui on July 25, 2024, led to a 23% drop in Oriental Selection's stock price, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 3 billion Hong Kong dollars [1] - The financial impact of Dong Yuhui's departure was evident, with the total revenue for continuing operations dropping from 6.53 billion yuan to 4.39 billion yuan, a decline of 32.7% [1] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Despite the challenges, the company's strategy to focus on self-operated products is beginning to show results, as indicated by the turnaround in net profit from a loss in the first half of fiscal year 2025 to a profit of 6.2 million yuan by the end of the fiscal year [1] - Excluding the financial impacts related to Dong Yuhui, the net profit from continuing operations increased from 104 million yuan in fiscal year 2024 to 135 million yuan in fiscal year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a sustained strengthening of GMV inflection points, indicating optimism for long-term growth in the education sector, particularly for Oriental Selection [4][5] - The report notes a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio to 60% for Excellence Education Group, which may support revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - Shanghai Film's performance is under short-term pressure, but the release of "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" is expected to provide performance elasticity [13][15] Group 2 - Huabei Mining's revenue for H1 2025 decreased by 45% year-on-year, but cost control measures are expected to enhance future performance as quality projects are gradually put into production [19][21] - The report indicates that the pet ecosystem construction by Reap Bio is becoming increasingly comprehensive, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in H1 2025 [24][25] - Silver Wheel's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in Q2 2025, driven by dual engines of "server liquid cooling + robotic joints" [27][29] Group 3 - Shaanxi Coal's production and sales volumes remained stable, with a slight increase in coal production in H1 2025, despite a decrease in revenue [31][33] - China Ruyi's net profit turned from loss to profit in H1 2025, driven by game publishing and content investment [36][37] - Light Media's animation production capacity continues to improve, with IP operations expected to become a new growth point [40][42] Group 4 - Cambrian's revenue for H1 2025 saw an extraordinary increase of 4347.82% year-on-year, with net profit also experiencing substantial growth [46]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.39 billion yuan for FY2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 32.7% [1] - The core business showed steady profit growth in H2 FY2025, with a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10% [1] - The gross profit for FY2025 was 1.4 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-over-year, but the gross margin improved significantly from 25.9% in FY2024 to 32.0% in FY2025 [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a GMV of 8.7 billion yuan for FY2025, with H1 and H2 GMV at 3.6 billion yuan and 3.9 billion yuan respectively [1] - The core net profit for FY2025 was 6.191 million yuan, while the adjusted core business net profit was 135 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 30% [2] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 174 million yuan, with significant adjustments for share-based compensation [2] Strategic Developments - The self-operated product strategy has become a key growth driver, contributing 43.8% of total GMV, with related revenue around 3.5 billion yuan [2] - The number of self-operated product SKUs increased from 488 in FY2024 to 732 in FY2025, expanding into various categories beyond fresh food [2] - The company’s own app channel has gained importance, contributing 15.7% of total GMV, with the app's GMV for self-operated products rising from 16.3% in FY2024 to 28.8% in FY2025 [3] Membership and User Engagement - The paid membership base for the company's app grew by 33% year-over-year, reaching 264,000 members by the end of FY2025 [3] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and net profit over the next three years, with projected revenues of 5.1 billion, 6.0 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [3]

Core Insights - The company reported FY25 revenue of 4.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 174 million yuan, down 75.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the separation from the "Yuhui Tongxing" livestream and increased marketing expenses [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's FY25 GMV was 8.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, with an estimated contribution of approximately 1.2 billion yuan from the "Yuhui Tongxing" livestream [1] - After excluding the "Yuhui Tongxing" livestream, self-operated product GMV reached 3.8 billion yuan, surpassing the 3.7 billion yuan from third-party products [1] - The decline in GMV has narrowed from -25% in June 2024 to -8% in May 2025, after excluding the "Yuhui Tongxing" livestream data [1] Group 2: Product Development and User Engagement - The company developed 732 self-operated products in FY25, an increase of 244 products or 50% compared to FY24, with gross margin improving from 21.5% in the first half to 24.4% in the second half of FY25 [2] - As of the end of FY25, the company had 264,000 paid fans on its app, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, with an estimated annual consumption of 7,200 yuan per paid fan [2] - The company has a substantial follower base of 42.22 million on Douyin across various accounts, providing a solid foundation for expanding its paid user base [2] Group 3: Marketing and Competition - The company's marketing expenses for FY25 totaled 900.2 million yuan, with a marketing expense ratio of 20.5%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from FY24 [2] - In the second half of FY25, marketing expenses were 443 million yuan, a slight decrease of 3.6% from the first half [2] - The competitive landscape in livestream e-commerce remains intense, necessitating significant marketing investments to drive sales [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company has successfully navigated a challenging adjustment period in FY25, with core ongoing business showing healthy growth despite a significant drop in overall revenue and profit due to the divestment of the "Yuhui Tongxing" business [3][4] - The total GMV for FY25 is reported at 8.7 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 39.2%, with self-operated products accounting for 43.8% of this total [4] - The company has strengthened its self-operated product development, launching 732 SPUs by May 2025, up from 488 SPUs in FY24, with a diverse range of products including health foods and pet supplies [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion, with a net profit from ongoing operations of 620 million, and an adjusted net profit of 1.74 billion. Excluding "Yuhui Tongxing," revenue was 4.2 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 31%, while ongoing net profit was 1.35 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30% [1][2] Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales and marketing expenses for ongoing operations were 902 million, a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, primarily due to increased advertising spending [2] Self-operated Products and Channels - The self-operated product revenue reached 3.5 billion, with a GMV of 3.8 billion, representing 43.8% of total GMV. The self-operated products on the company's app accounted for 28.8% of all self-operated product GMV [1][4] - The company's app channel has seen rapid growth, with GMV from the app increasing to 15.7%, generating revenue of 1.1 billion, up from 900 million in FY24 [5] User Engagement and Satisfaction - The number of paid app subscribers reached 264,000, a year-over-year increase of 33.1%, with user satisfaction rising to 98.7% [5]

Core Insights - The live e-commerce industry is experiencing a critical turning point after years of rapid expansion, with several companies reporting disappointing financial results for the first half of the year [1][2]. Company Performance - Jiao Ge Peng You Holdings reported a revenue of approximately RMB 620 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 9.8%, but net profit decreased by approximately 37.4% to RMB 55.4 million due to rising platform traffic acquisition costs and increased operational expenses related to the "Peng You Yun" intelligent system [2]. - Dongfang Zhenxuan's total revenue for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, was RMB 4.392 billion, a decline of 32.7%, primarily due to reduced sales in self-operated products and live e-commerce business. The net profit was RMB 6.19 million, significantly down from RMB 249 million in the previous fiscal year [2]. - Yaowang Technology reported a revenue of RMB 1.896 billion for the first half of the year, a decrease of 36.32%, attributed to competition from market rivals and the closure of unprofitable IPs and offline stores. The net profit was a loss of RMB 253 million [2][3]. Industry Trends - The live e-commerce sector is transitioning from "wild growth" to "refined cultivation," with content and ecosystem becoming key competitive factors as the industry matures under technological and regulatory influences [4]. - Companies are focusing on innovative business development to drive growth, with Jiao Ge Peng You Holdings enhancing content competitiveness and optimizing operational efficiency through automation and data algorithms [4]. - Dongfang Zhenxuan aims to strengthen its brand as a quality product provider and cultural dissemination company, investing in core technological innovations to improve platform stability and scalability [5].