Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has accelerated its upward trend, with the current market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal reaching 817 RMB/ton, an increase of 47 RMB/ton week-on-week. The report suggests that the price could potentially rise to 931 RMB/ton based on profit recovery scenarios for power plants [2][6][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding cyclical trends over pinpointing absolute price peaks, highlighting a favorable environment for coal investments due to global monetary easing and a rebound in the coal cycle [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 4.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.71 percentage points. The thermal coal index rose by 4.84%, while the coking coal index increased by 1.87% [16][20] - As of November 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 817 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 47 RMB/ton. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1860 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a tightening supply due to production checks and increased winter demand, predicting that coal prices in Q4 may exceed expectations. It highlights the importance of monitoring winter storage and port inventory changes [6][17] - The daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 511.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week, while coal supply increased slightly to 547.3 million tons [34] Price Projections - The report provides calculations indicating that if the profit margins for coal-fired power plants return to long-term averages, the acceptable market price for thermal coal could rise to 789 RMB/ton or even 931 RMB/ton under certain conditions [7][12] - The report also discusses the impact of upcoming capacity price adjustments in 2026, which could further influence coal pricing dynamics [7][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a comprehensive embrace of the coal sector's "Davis Double Play" bottom reversal trend, recommending a diversified selection of stocks based on different strategies: balanced, aggressive, and stable leaders [2][7]

Core Insights - The primary goal is to reverse the PPI trend, with September PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.3%, indicating a stabilization in PPI driven by coal prices [3] - The coal price is expected to remain stable, with 2025 potentially marking a policy bottom for coal prices, as supply-side policies are anticipated to be introduced [3] - The coal industry is experiencing a transformation, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [3] Industry Summary - As of November 7, 2025, Qinhuangdao's 5500K thermal coal closing price is 817 RMB/ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, with significant price increases in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [1] - Daily average production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.493 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] - Methanol and urea operating rates are at 87.8% and 82.7%, respectively, both above historical levels [1] Company Recommendations - Companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, are recommended for investment [4] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from a coal price cycle bottom, including Yanzhou Coal, Huayang Co., Guanghui Energy, Jinkong Coal, and Gansu Energy, are also suggested [4] - Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanmei International, are highlighted [4]

Group 1 - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (520990) closed up 0.65% on November 7, with a trading volume of 132 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% per year and a custody fee of 0.10% per year [1] - As of November 6, 2024, the fund's latest share count was 5.043 billion shares, with a total size of 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date share increase of 34.62% and a size increase of 54.22% [1] Group 2 - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with returns of 24.24% and 9.92% respectively during their management periods [2] - The fund's top holdings include China Petroleum, China Mobile, China Shenhua, CNOOC, COSCO Shipping, Sinopec, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Coal Energy, and China Resources Land, with significant weightings in the portfolio [2][3] Group 3 - The top holdings and their respective portfolio weights are as follows: - China Petroleum: 10.88% - China Mobile: 10.33% - China Shenhua: 9.72% - CNOOC: 9.54% - COSCO Shipping: 8.43% - Sinopec: 7.42% - China Telecom: 4.54% - China Unicom: 3.45% - China Coal Energy: 2.59% - China Resources Land: 2.23% [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. has signed a new phase strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. to enhance collaboration in various sectors including technological innovation, enterprise management, talent cultivation, smart manufacturing, digitalization, and supply chain stability and security [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Areas - The agreement focuses on technological innovation and related industry development [1] - It emphasizes enterprise management and talent cultivation [1] - The collaboration will also cover smart manufacturing and digitalization [1] - Supply chain stability and security are key components of the partnership [1]

Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 110.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.18 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year. The decline in net profit for the third quarter was 21.9%, which is an improvement compared to the 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - The increase in coal prices since July is attributed to regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing coal supply, with the average selling price for coal in the third quarter estimated at approximately 482 yuan per ton, up from 470 yuan per ton in the first half [1] - The tightening of supply has led to a recovery in coal prices, with the comprehensive trading price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) reaching 693 yuan per ton as of October 31, up about 5.3% from the low of 658 yuan per ton in early July [2] - The company has the potential to increase its dividend payout ratio or acquire assets to enhance profits, with a current dividend policy of no less than 30% and a proposed payout ratio of 35% for 2024 [2] - If coal prices continue to rise, there is potential for upward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2026, which would positively impact the company's stock performance [3]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have become active again, with notable price increases for several companies [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) rose by 4.01%, reaching HKD 11.93 [1] - Power Development (01277.HK) increased by 3.16%, trading at HKD 1.63 [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) saw a rise of 2.8%, priced at HKD 11.38 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) experienced a smaller increase of 0.87%, now at HKD 41.62 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have become active again, with notable price increases for companies such as China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.01% to HKD 11.93, Powerlong Development (01277) up 3.16% to HKD 1.63, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 2.8% to HKD 11.38, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 0.87% to HKD 41.62 [1] - The recent rise in coal prices is driven by increased winter demand and supply constraints, indicating a tightening supply side in the coal industry [1] - According to Founder Securities, the coal supply-demand situation is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, with a potential reversal from oversupply to a more balanced market, leading to further price increases [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts, such as China Shenhua and China Coal, exhibit strong earnings stability [1] - If coal prices continue to rebound, undervalued stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining (Hong Kong stock) may also experience valuation recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by expectations of tightening supply and increased demand during the winter heating season [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Several coal stocks have seen significant gains, with Strength Development (01277) up 5.19% to HKD 1.62, Yida Commodity (01733) up 4.6% to HKD 0.91, China Coal Energy (601898) (01898) up 2.63% to HKD 11.71, and China Shenhua (601088) (01088) up 1.3% to HKD 41.98 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the maintenance of the Daqin Railway (601006) has concluded, leading to a month-on-month increase in coal input, although it remains low year-on-year [1] - The central safety production assessment team will fully enter major production areas in November, indicating a tightening safety supervision situation, which is expected to reinforce market expectations for supply constraints [1] - It is anticipated that after adjustments, thermal coal prices will rise due to increased freight costs and the seasonal demand for winter heating [1] Group 3: Dividend Trends - Most coal companies continue to show a strong willingness to distribute high dividends, with six listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans, including China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), Shanghai Energy (600508), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), and China Coal Energy [1] Group 4: Investment Sentiment - In the context of global political and economic uncertainty and domestic expectations for economic stability, investment behavior in the coal sector is experiencing emotional fluctuations [1] - The coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, with current low holdings indicating that the fundamentals have reached a turning point, suggesting it is an opportune time for investment [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to rise, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] - Strength Development (01277.HK) increased by 5.19%, reaching HKD 1.62 [1] - Yida Commodity (01733.HK) rose by 4.6%, reaching HKD 0.91 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) saw a 2.63% increase, reaching HKD 11.71 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) increased by 1.3%, reaching HKD 41.98 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks continue to rise, with notable increases: Strength Development up 5.19% to HKD 1.62, Yida Commodity up 4.6% to HKD 0.91, China Coal Energy up 2.63% to HKD 11.71, and China Shenhua up 1.3% to HKD 41.98 [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports that the maintenance of the Daqin Railway has ended, leading to a month-on-month increase in coal input, although it remains low year-on-year. The central safety production inspection team will fully enter in November, indicating a tightening supply expectation in the main production areas [1] - Open Source Securities notes that most coal companies maintain a high dividend payout intention, with six listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans. The coal sector is seen as having both cyclical and dividend attributes, with current low holdings indicating a potential investment opportunity [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates stricter safety regulations in November, alongside rising freight costs, which may lead to an increase in thermal coal prices after adjustments [1] - The capital market is experiencing emotional fluctuations in investment behavior due to global political and economic uncertainties, alongside domestic economic stabilization expectations [1] - The coal sector's fundamentals are perceived to have reached a turning point, suggesting it is an opportune time for investment [1]