Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

每经AI快讯，建发国际集团(01908.HK)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.8%，报16.11港元，成交额3757.86万港 元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中金发布研报称，考虑减值压力，下调建发国际集团（15.98， 0.46， 2.96%）（01908）25年/26年盈利 预测33%/30%至31.6亿元/35.6亿元，引入27年预测41.2亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9倍26/27年市净率， 维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下调目标价11%至19.1港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27年 市净率，较当前股价有32%的上行空间。 责任编辑：卢昱君 建发国际集团（01908）早盘股价上涨4.32%，现报16.19港元，成交额4746.74万港元。 中金发布研报称，考虑减值压力，下调建发国际集团（15.98， 0.46， 2.96%）（01908）25年/26年盈利 预测33%/30%至31.6亿元/35.6亿元，引入27年预测41.2亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9倍26/27年市净率， 维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下调目标价11%至19.1港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27年 市净率，较 ...

建发国际集团(01908)再涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.8%，报16.11港元，成交额3757.86万港元。 该行预计，受高于预期的存货减值及投资物业冲销拖累，建发国际集团去年核心利润将按年减22%，虽 然短期盈利压力似乎主要体现在年初至今的业绩表现不佳，但仍对其前景持建设性看法。其持续的利润 率复苏、新鲜的土地储备及在豪宅项目的强大专业能力，将使其在减值减少及利润率持续改善的驱动 下，在2026年实现"V型"盈利反弹。 消息面上，汇丰环球研究发布研报指出，建发国际集团目前正面临低迷住宅市场及去年房价大幅修正带 来的盈利压力。在市场情绪疲软及公司上周五(1月23日)完成管理层交接的背景下，该公司可能在2025 年采取激进的减值确认措施，以调整盈利预测。该行将公司2025至2027年的合约销售额、营收预测分别 下调22%至28%及1%至15%；预测毛利率上调0.2至0.5个百分点；核心利润预估分别下调31%、20%、 19%。 ...

该行预计，受高于预期的存货减值及投资物业冲销拖累，建发国际集团去年核心利润将按年减22%，虽 然短期盈利压力似乎主要体现在年初至今的业绩表现不佳，但仍对其前景持建设性看法。其持续的利润 率复苏、新鲜的土地储备及在豪宅项目的强大专业能力，将使其在减值减少及利润率持续改善的驱动 下，在2026年实现"V型"盈利反弹。 消息面上，汇丰环球研究发布研报指出，建发国际集团目前正面临低迷住宅市场及去年房价大幅修正带 来的盈利压力。在市场情绪疲软及公司上周五(1月23日)完成管理层交接的背景下，该公司可能在2025 年采取激进的减值确认措施，以调整盈利预测。该行将公司2025至2027年的合约销售额、营收预测分别 下调22%至28%及1%至15%；预测毛利率上调0.2至0.5个百分点；核心利润预估分别下调31%、20%、 19%。 建发国际集团(01908)再涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.8%，报16.11港元，成交额3757.86万港元。 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：孙元祺/宋志达/李晓豪/张宇 盈利预测与估值 考虑减值压力，我们下调公司25 年/26 年盈利预测33%/30%至31.6 亿元/35.6 亿元，引入27 年预测41.2 亿元。当前股价交易于1.0/0.9 倍26/27 年市净率，维持跑赢行业评级，考虑业绩调整和经营端韧性，下 调目标价11%至19.1 港元/股，对应1.3/1.2倍26/27 年市净率，较当前股价有32%的上行空间。 风险 行业景气度修复不及预期，地产政策施力不及预期。 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025 年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历 史减值计提充分，有望于2025 年实现筑底企稳。最后，因2H25 地产景气度再度转为承压，我们判断公 司核心净利润或因增量存货减值计提有所下行，预计同比下降26%至31.6 亿元。 关注要点 销售有韧性，补库足、质量优，料2026 年延续稳健表现。我们估测公司2025 年全口径销售额同比-9% 至1228 亿元（Top30 同比-14%），百强排名稳定为第7 名，其中"灯塔战略"稳步落实，北京、厦门、上 海等项目已开盘且销售额居单城榜单前列；此外，北京、上 ...

【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压，我们判断公司核心净利润或因增量存货减值计提有所下行，预计同比下 降26%至31.6亿元。 销售有韧性，补库足、质量优 【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 我们估测公司2025年全口径销售额同比-9%至1228亿元（Top30同比-14%），百强排名稳定为第7名，其中"灯塔战 略"稳步落实，北京、厦门、上海等项目已开盘且销售额居单城榜单前列；此外，北京、上海、杭州三城销售额市 占率分别提升至3.4%/2.7%/10.6%。 同时，公司把握机遇积极拓展优质储备，我们估测2025年1-11月累计拿地强度63%（重点房企平均为40%）。 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压， ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Jianfa International Group for 2025 and 2026 by 33% and 30% to CNY 3.16 billion and CNY 3.56 billion respectively, while introducing a forecast for 2027 at CNY 4.12 billion [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to see a year-on-year decline of over 20% in profit for 2025, with estimated core net profit dropping by 26% to CNY 3.16 billion due to pressure from inventory impairment [2] - The company's total sales for 2025 are estimated to decrease by 9% to CNY 122.8 billion, with a stable ranking as the 7th among the top 100 companies [3] - The company has a strong land acquisition intensity of 63% for the period from January to November 2025, significantly higher than the average of 40% for major real estate firms [3] Group 2 - The company's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize before its peers, with over CNY 10 billion in asset impairments confirmed in the first half of 2025, representing 4.1% of the net inventory at the end of that period [4] - The company maintains a prudent approach to impairment provisions, leading to an adjustment in the overall impairment estimate and a downward revision of profit forecasts [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a concentrated release of impairments, which may enhance future performance resilience [4]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is transitioning from "scale competition" to "value cultivation," emphasizing product strength, service quality, and corporate responsibility as core competitive advantages for enduring through cycles [1][15] - In 2025, Jianfa Real Estate achieved multiple national and industry awards, showcasing its commitment to high-quality development and contributing to industry stability [2][15] Awards and Recognition - Jianfa Real Estate's accolades in 2025 include the "2025 China Civil Engineering Zhan Tianyou Award for Excellent Residential Community Gold Award" for its Beijing Jianfa Wangjing project, recognized for its excellence in planning, engineering quality, technological innovation, and green energy [2] - The company ranked in the top tiers of various industry evaluations, including "Top 3 Excellent Enterprises in Real Estate Product Strength" and "Top 2 Excellent Enterprises in Real Estate Cultural Innovation" [2] - Jianfa Real Estate was recognized as "Top 10 Super Product Strength in Chinese Real Estate Enterprises" and its "Good House System Framework" was awarded "Top 10 Good House Construction Systems" [2] Sustainable Development and Urban Integration - Jianfa Real Estate focuses on urban renewal and carbon neutrality, aligning its development with city growth and cultural integration [4] - The "Lighthouse Strategy" launched in 2025 emphasizes customized, culturally rich designs that reflect local heritage, avoiding uniformity across cities [4] - Projects like Beijing Jianfa Haiyan and Chengdu Jianfa Haiyao exemplify this approach, integrating local culture with modern design [5][4] Product Innovation and Quality Assurance - The company maintains a strong commitment to quality, launching a "Good House" framework with over 1,050 technical standards to ensure comfort, safety, and sustainability [8] - Innovations include the "Six重静界" soundproofing system and advanced water purification technologies, with projects receiving platinum-level certifications for noise reduction [9] - Customer feedback is integral to product development, with over 212,000 surveys collected and extensive direct communication with clients to inform improvements [9] Customer Service and Community Engagement - Jianfa Real Estate emphasizes customer satisfaction throughout the project lifecycle, achieving high rankings in delivery and customer satisfaction metrics [10] - The company implements a comprehensive quality control process called "One House Seven Inspections" to ensure thorough checks before delivery [11] - Community initiatives, such as the "Yuexin Community" and various cultural events, foster engagement and enhance the living experience for residents [12][13] Industry Leadership and Corporate Responsibility - Jianfa Real Estate's achievements in 2025 reflect its commitment to high-quality development and serve as a model for the industry amid a focus on value creation [15] - The company aims to blend cultural and technological advancements in its products while enhancing service experiences and promoting sustainable practices [15]

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure, with all 70 cities experiencing a decline in second-hand housing prices for four consecutive months, indicating a "catch-up" phenomenon in first-tier cities [9][19] - The average year-on-year decline in new housing prices across 70 cities in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% decline in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline [4][12] - The average year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices was 6.3% in 2025, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, indicating a persistent downward trend for four years [4][12] Real Estate Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.7%, maintaining the same rate of decline as in November [4][12] - The total sales area in December was 93.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 17.3% [12][13] - The total investment in real estate development in December was 419.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8%, marking the largest single-month decline since 2000 [16][19] Housing Price Trends - In first-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9] - The average year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8% in 2025, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month in December, with an average year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stable companies with high sales and land reserve ratios in core cities, smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [10][20] - Companies such as China Resources Land, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted for their strong market positions [10][20] - The report anticipates potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 2026, which could help stabilize the market [9][19]