Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is "Hold" based on the current performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's FY26Q1 retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau retail values changing by -3.3% and +7.8% respectively [1]. - The same-store sales in mainland China fell by 3.3%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw an increase of 2.2% [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales, particularly in the franchise segment, which performed better than direct stores [2]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, increasing by 27% and accounting for 7.6% of mainland China's retail value [2]. - The company closed 307 stores in FY26Q1, accelerating channel adjustments, with a total of 6,337 stores as of June 30, 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Chow Tai Fook are estimated at HKD 91.5 billion, 95.1 billion, and 99.8 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 4%, and 5% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 8.06 billion, 8.61 billion, and 9.31 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 7%, and 8% [3][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on July 22, 2025, are projected to be 17, 16, and 15 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [3][5].

今日金市震荡：国内金价暴涨，国际金价跳水，投资风险与机遇并存 国内金价今日上演惊险一幕：回收价暴涨7元/克至768元/克（足金999），令不少市民跃跃欲试，准备出手家中闲置黄金饰品。然而，这波涨势背后暗藏玄 机，投资者需谨慎应对。 | 黄金种类 | 回收价格 | 黄金纯度 | 报价时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金回收价格 | 768元 / 克 | 99.9%-99.999% | 2025 年 07 月 | | 22k 金回收价格 | 680元 / 克 | 91.6% | 2025 年 07 月 | | 18k 金回收价格 | 553元/克 | 75.0% | 2025 年 07 月 | | 14k 金回收价格 | 433元 / 克 | 58.5% | 2025 年 07 月 | | 999 铂金回收价格 | 303元 / 克 | 99.9% | 2025 年 07 月 | | 999 把金回收价格 | 254元/克 | 99.9% | 2025年07月 | 国内金价"独立行情"：今日上海期货交易所黄金期货价格报784.8元/克，现货价格则高达789元/克，两者价差达4.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [6] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026 Q1 same-store sales decline continues to narrow, with expectations for ongoing improvement [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and closing underperforming stores, which is expected to enhance sales performance [2] - E-commerce sales have shown strong growth, with a 27% year-on-year increase in FY2026 Q1 [2] - The company anticipates a 3% revenue growth for FY2026, with a slight decline in operating profit [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2026 Q1, Chow Tai Fook's overall RSV decreased by 1.9%, with mainland China RSV down by 3.3% [1] - The company closed 311 underperforming stores, bringing the total to 5,963 stores in mainland China [1] - The retail sales of gold products increased by 20.8%, contributing to the improvement in same-store sales [1] E-commerce Growth - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 27% year-on-year, accounting for 7.6% of total sales [2] - The company is leveraging promotional events like the 618 sales to boost e-commerce performance [2] Regional Performance - In FY2026 Q1, sales in Hong Kong and Macau increased by 7.8%, with Macau showing a notable 9.5% growth in same-store sales [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects FY2026 revenue to grow by approximately 3%, while operating profit is projected to decline by 2% to HKD 14.4 billion [3] - Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026 is forecasted to increase by 26% to HKD 7.45 billion [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains its EPS forecast for FY26/27 at HKD 0.84/0.92, with a target price increase of 8% to HKD 16.11, indicating a 15% upside potential from the current stock price [1] - The company reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in overall retail value for 1QFY26, with a 3.3% decline in same-store sales in mainland China, while the Hong Kong and Macau markets saw a 2.2% increase in same-store sales [2][3] Group 2 - The sales improvement in the quarter was attributed to the growth in sales of priced jewelry products and a low base effect, with mainland China retail sales down 3.3%, but showing improvement from a previous decline of 10% [3] - The company optimized its store operations, closing 311 stores in mainland China during 1QFY26, which contributed to the same-store sales improvement [3] - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, retail sales increased by 7.8%, with same-store sales in Hong Kong growing by 0.2% and in Macau by 9.5% [3] Group 3 - In terms of product performance, gold products continued to outperform embedded products, with a 21% year-on-year increase in sales of priced gold during 1QFY26 [4] - The same-store sales for gold products in mainland China decreased by 1.4%, while embedded products saw a 2.2% decline, both showing significant narrowing of declines compared to previous quarters [4] - In the Hong Kong and Macau markets, same-store sales for gold products increased by 6.6%, and for embedded products by 3.3% [4] Group 4 - The company is continuing its brand transformation strategy, opening new image stores in mainland China and Macau, and launched a high-end jewelry series in June in Hangzhou to enhance brand positioning [5] - The "Chuanxi" series has achieved cumulative sales exceeding HKD 500 million since its launch in April 2025, continuing the strong growth trend of previous series [5] - The collaboration with streetwear brand CLOT has gained popularity among younger consumers, indicating successful product innovation [5]

Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) expects a mid-term net profit of approximately $225 million to $265 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of about $159 million for the same period ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to an improvement in gross margin, driven by higher alumina prices and relatively stable unit production costs [1] - The average selling price of the company's products for the first half of 2025 is expected to be around $530 per ton, up from approximately $387 per ton in the first half of 2024, but lower than $561 per ton in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 2 - TCL Electronics (01070.HK) anticipates a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of approximately 45% to 65% for the first half of 2025 [2] - Renrui Talent (06919.HK) expects a mid-term profit attributable to equity holders to increase by 66.7% to 94.1% [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788.HK) reports an increase in total gold resources to 5.07 million ounces [2]

Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a 2.2% increase in same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau for the first quarter [1] - The overall retail value for the first quarter saw a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with Hong Kong and Macau markets increasing by 7.8% while mainland China experienced a 3.3% drop [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in Hong Kong grew by 0.2%, while Macau saw a significant increase of 9.5% [1] - In mainland China, same-store sales decreased by 3.3%, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous periods [1] - Franchise stores in mainland China reported flat same-store sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook (01929) reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in retail value for the first quarter ending June 30, 2025, with mainland China experiencing a 3.3% drop, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 7.8% increase [1]. Group 1 - The same-store sales performance in major markets continued to improve compared to previous quarters, driven by the growth of priced products and a low base effect [1]. - In mainland China, the same-store sales decline narrowed to 3.3% for direct stores, while franchise stores remained flat [1]. - Same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with Hong Kong up 0.2% and Macau up 9.5% [1]. Group 2 - The average selling price of gold products remained strong, with mainland China's average price rising to HKD 6,900 (from HKD 6,100 in Q1 FY2025), and Hong Kong and Macau's average price increasing to HKD 10,400 (from HKD 9,000 in Q1 FY2025) [1]. - The sales decline for jewelry, platinum, and K-gold in mainland China significantly narrowed due to strong sales of the company's signature products [1]. - The average selling price for jewelry in mainland China rose to HKD 9,600 (from HKD 8,500 in Q1 FY2025), while the average price in Hong Kong and Macau was HKD 15,900 (down from HKD 16,400 in Q1 FY2025) [1]. Group 3 - The company continued to close underperforming stores while selectively opening new, more productive locations [2]. - A net closure of 311 Chow Tai Fook jewelry retail points occurred in mainland China, while a net addition of 1 retail point was made in Hong Kong and Macau [2].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been generally increased due to the rise in international gold prices [1] Price Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price has been raised to 1015 yuan per gram [1] - Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price has been raised to 1021 yuan per gram [1]

Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable compared to last Friday, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a two-day price increase, reaching 1012 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold quoted the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 43 CNY per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: Lao Miao 1004 CNY, Liu Fu 1008 CNY, Chow Tai Fook 1008 CNY, and others, with no significant changes except for Chow Sang Sang [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices rebounded after a significant drop on Saturday, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 CNY to 581 CNY per gram [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price saw a slight increase of 3.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: the average recycling price is 765.20 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 778.20 CNY [2] International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold prices rose, peaking at 3361.05 USD per ounce before closing at 3349.42 USD, marking a 0.31% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3367.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% increase [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine [4] - Concerns over the expanding U.S. debt and potential tariff escalations are expected to continue driving the gold market [4] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations and consumer confidence data have influenced market sentiment, with inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% from a previous 5.0% [4]

Group 1 - The company Chow Tai Fook (00659.HK) announced that all conditions for the repurchase agreement have been met, and the repurchase was completed on July 18, 2025 [1] - A total principal amount of HKD 566 million of existing convertible bonds has been repurchased, accounting for approximately 72.6% of the initial principal amount [1] - The remaining outstanding principal amount of HKD 74 million has been fully converted into shares, resulting in the issuance of 10,013,530 new shares [1] Group 2 - The board further announced that all conditions for the subscription agreement related to the issuance of bonds have been met, and the subscription and issuance were completed on July 18, 2025 [2] - The bonds have a total principal amount of HKD 850 million and were listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange on July 18, 2025 [2] - The bonds were allocated to no less than six independent subscribers, defined as professional investors under the Securities and Futures Ordinance [2]