Core Viewpoint - The company, Mixue Group, is testing a breakfast product line in select cities, which has led to a positive market reaction reflected in its stock price increase [1] Group 1: Product Development - Mixue Group is conducting a trial for its breakfast offerings in cities such as Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, with products priced at 5 yuan each [1] - The initial breakfast product lineup includes four dairy options: Breakfast Coconut Milk, Breakfast Five Red Milk, Breakfast Five Black Milk, and Breakfast Corn Milk [1] - There is currently no plan for a large-scale rollout of the breakfast products [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock price of Mixue Group rose by over 3% during trading, with a current price of 424.6 HKD and a trading volume of 96.6871 million HKD [1] - Western Securities has expressed optimism regarding the company's supply chain capabilities and its potential for expanding different product categories [1] - According to Jianyin International, Mixue Group's performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, showing resilience despite the normalization of delivery subsidies [1] - Jianyin International projects a revenue growth of 25.4% and a net profit growth of 17% for Mixue Ice City by the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Mixue Group (02097) due to better-than-expected half-year performance, with a slight increase in 2026 earnings forecast by 1% [1] Financial Performance - Mixue Group's half-year results exceeded expectations despite the normalization of delivery subsidies, demonstrating resilient performance [1] - Revenue growth is expected to be 25.4% and net profit growth 17% in the second half of 2025 due to slower-than-anticipated subsidy reductions [1] Operational Strategy - The company is driving store traffic through brand/IP-led activities and enhancing user engagement and retention via upgrades to the "Mixue Ice City" app and membership system, offsetting the impact of reduced delivery traffic from price wars [1] - Adjustments to the point-of-sale (POS) strategy are aimed at achieving healthy and sustainable growth, with projected domestic store point growth rates of 11% in 2025 and 9% in 2026 [1] Expansion Plans - Operational strategy adjustments in overseas markets will continue until the first half of 2026, with net new store openings expected to increase in the second half of 2026 [1] - The company anticipates an increase in store points of 14% in 2025 and 10% in 2026 at the group level [1]

蜜雪集团今年上半年业绩超预期，尽管外卖补贴常态化，集团仍交出韧性业绩。线下方面，公司透过品 牌/IP主导的活动带动门店客流;线上则升级"蜜雪冰城"小程式及会员体系，提升用户参与度与留存率， 两者共同抵销外卖价格战降温带来的流量拖累。 报告表示，集团调整门店销售点(POS)策略，实现健康可持续增长，预计今明两年国内门店销售点增长 率分别为11%/9%；海外市场方面运营策略调整将持续至2026年上半年，海外净新增门店数量将于2026 年下半年上涨。集团层面，预计2025-2026年门店销售点分别增加14%/10%。 建银国际发布研报称，维持蜜雪集团(02097)"跑赢大市"评级，主要考虑到半年业绩表现优于预期，该 行小幅上调2026年盈测1%。由于补贴退坡速度略慢于该行此前预期，故预计2025年下半年收入增长 25.4%，净利润增长17%。 ...

Core Insights - The company Mixue Ice City is exploring the breakfast market by launching a survey to understand consumer preferences for breakfast items [1] - The company has introduced a "Breakfast Series" in select cities, featuring products priced at 5 yuan each [4][6] - Mixue Ice City has expanded its product offerings to include fresh beer through an investment in a company called Fresh Beer Fulu, acquiring a 53% stake for approximately 297 million yuan [6][7] Company Developments - The breakfast offerings include various milk drinks such as Five Red Milk and Five Black Milk, and are currently being tested in cities like Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou [4][6] - The company reported a significant revenue increase, achieving 14.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 39.3% year-on-year growth [7] - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Ice City has expanded its global store count to 53,014, adding 9,796 new stores compared to the previous year [7] Market Context - The breakfast segment is competitive, with established players like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks already offering breakfast options [6] - Other brands like Heytea and Naixue's Tea have previously ventured into breakfast products, indicating a growing trend in the beverage industry [6] - Mixue Ice City's recent move into the beer market signifies a diversification strategy aimed at expanding its product range beyond traditional beverages [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The tea beverage industry is characterized as a high-quality track with continuous expansion driven by supply and demand [2][46]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the affordable tea beverage market, leveraging its strong brand and supply chain capabilities to penetrate both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion through its main brand, Lucky Coffee, and the craft beer brand, Fulu Family, which are expected to enhance operational capabilities and market presence [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a long-term growth phase, with a projected market size of 746.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [50]. - The market is dominated by brands that can meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in the lower price segments [46][50]. 2. Company Performance - As of mid-2025, the company operates over 53,000 stores, with a significant number located overseas, indicating robust international expansion [2][20]. - The company reported revenues of 20.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 49.6%, and expects to reach 33.49 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 34.9% growth rate [3][21]. 3. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved a self-supply ratio of 100% for core beverage ingredients, significantly reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external procurement [2][5]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing has enhanced the company's operational efficiency, supporting its global expansion strategy [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 5.94 billion yuan, 6.54 billion yuan, and 7.68 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 19 [3][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 8.39 yuan in 2023 to 15.66 yuan in 2025 [3][21]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the tea beverage sector is intensifying, with an increasing number of brands vying for market share, particularly in lower-tier cities [46][60]. - The company maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 11.3% by gross merchandise value (GMV) and 6.5% by store count as of 2023 [57][58].

Core Insights - The coffee consumption market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the ready-to-drink coffee industry projected to reach a market size of 117.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.39% [1][8] - Consumer preferences are shifting from occasional indulgence to daily necessity, with motivations evolving from "energizing function" to "flavor experience" and "daily accompaniment" [1][8] - The industry is witnessing a diversification trend, with innovative products and consumption scenarios emerging, alongside a growing emphasis on local coffee bean usage [3][7] Industry Overview - Ready-to-drink coffee is defined as beverages made from coffee beans or powder, combined with water, milk, cream, syrup, and other ingredients, prepared on-site for immediate consumption [2] - The industry has evolved since Starbucks opened its first store in Beijing in 1999, leading to the rise of local brands like Luckin Coffee, which has disrupted the market with competitive pricing [3][5] Market Dynamics - The number of coffee consumers in China is expected to reach 417 million in 2024, marking a 4.47% increase [8] - Female consumers dominate the market, accounting for 65.4%, while Generation Z and Y represent over 90% of the consumer base, with Generation Z being the largest group at 66.1% [8] Policy Environment - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the development of the restaurant industry, including ready-to-drink coffee, creating a favorable environment for growth [5] Industry Structure - The supply chain includes raw material suppliers (coffee beans, milk, etc.), equipment suppliers, brand operators, and sales channels [6][7] - Yunnan province is the primary coffee bean production area, contributing over 90% of China's coffee bean output, which supports the industry's growth [7] Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by intense competition, with over 32,000 new companies registered in the ready-to-drink coffee sector in 2025, and independent brands making up approximately 60.5% of the market [10][11] - Price wars have intensified, leading brands to seek differentiation through supply chain optimization and product innovation [11] Future Trends - Future developments will likely include deeper integration of tea and coffee products, as well as a focus on health-conscious options like low-sugar and plant-based ingredients [13]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry - The gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with high-end consumption showing resilience due to supply constraints. Monthly gaming revenue from April to July consistently surpassed expectations, with October's gross gaming revenue reaching 24.1 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4][12] - Visitor numbers in Macau are projected to approach 2019 levels, with total inbound visitors from January to September 2025 reaching 29.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [12][13] - The gaming sector is experiencing upward momentum, with the gross gaming revenue recovering to 88% of 2019 levels in Q3 2025, driven by a 13% year-on-year increase [7][9] - The valuation of gaming companies is currently at low levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [15][18] Group 2: Online Travel Industry - The online travel industry is experiencing stable growth, with domestic residents' travel numbers increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, and travel spending rising by 12% [30][31] - The competitive landscape in the online travel sector remains stable, with high entry barriers due to supply chain and customer service advantages [32][33] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see gradual improvement in profit margins, with a 14% year-on-year increase in core OTA business revenue in Q2 2025 [41][42] Group 3: Restaurant Industry - The restaurant sector is currently in a recovery phase, with the growth rate of social retail dining revenue lagging behind overall social retail growth [50][51] - The chain rate in China's restaurant services is steadily increasing, projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% in 2025, although it remains below the global average of 35% [53][54] - Companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are experiencing high growth rates due to rapid store expansion and effective marketing strategies [59][60]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a strong performance in new consumption concept stocks, with notable gains in several companies [1] - Companies such as "沪上阿姨" increased by nearly 13%, "锅圈" by 6%, "毛戈平" by over 5%, "奈雪的茶" by over 4%, and others like "蜜雪集团" and "茶百道" rising by over 3% [1] Group 2 - "沪上阿姨" (Code: 02589) rose by 12.52% to a latest price of 102.000, with a total market value of 10.731 billion and a year-to-date decline of 9.83% [2] - "锅圈" (Code: 02517) increased by 6.02% to 4.400, with a market cap of 11.61 billion and a year-to-date increase of 147.22% [2] - "毛戈平" (Code: 01318) saw a rise of 5.41% to 95.500, with a market value of 46.813 billion and a year-to-date increase of 66.16% [2] - "奈雪的茶" (Code: 02150) increased by 4.17% to 1.250, with a market cap of 21.31 billion and a year-to-date decline of 8.09% [2] - "蜜雪集团" (Code: 02097) rose by 3.55% to 431.800, with a total market value of 163.919 billion and a year-to-date increase of 113.23% [2] - "茶百道" (Code: 02555) increased by 3.28% to 7.560, with a market cap of 11.171 billion and a year-to-date decline of 27.98% [2]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [19]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently under pressure, with a 0.49% decline in the SW food and beverage index, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [11]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in consumer confidence and sales, particularly in the liquor sector, which may lead to valuation recovery [14]. - The October CPI has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential improvement in consumer spending and market conditions [5]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No ratings are provided for liquor, beverages, and food categories [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Guizhou Moutai: Increase holdings - Shanxi Fenjiu: Increase holdings - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Increase holdings - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy [3]. Industry Performance - The SW food and beverage sector saw declines in beer, soft drinks, and other liquor categories, with the highest gains in pre-processed foods, meat products, and baked goods [11]. - Notable stock performances include: - Top gainers: Anji Food (+13.87%), Huifa Food (+13.07%), Babi Food (+11.32%) - Top losers: Bai Run Shares (-4.33%), Gujing Gongjiu (-5.43%), Jiao Da Ang Li (-5.54%) [11]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its fundamentals, with a focus on sales recovery points [14]. - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend plan of CNY 30 billion and a share buyback plan of CNY 1.5-3 billion [14]. - Current prices for Moutai products are CNY 1,660 for Feitian Moutai and CNY 810 for Wuliangye, showing slight declines [17]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with notable stock performances from Anji Food, Huifa Food, and Babi Food [5]. - The CPI for October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [5]. - Recommended stocks for the medium to long term include Guming, Mixue Group, Ximai Food, and Dongpeng Beverage [5].

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage sector is showing strong performance, with significant stock price increases for major companies, indicating positive market sentiment and growth potential in the industry [1] Company Performance - Hu Shang A Yi (02589) increased by 17.05%, trading at 96.8 HKD - Mi Xue Group (02097) rose by 8.98%, trading at 420 HKD - Gu Ming (01364) saw a 7.98% increase, trading at 23.28 HKD - Cha Bai Dao (02555) grew by 5.18%, trading at 7.31 HKD [1] Industry Growth - As of September 2025, there are 523,000 tea beverage stores nationwide, with a net increase of 5,000 stores in September - The average monthly store efficiency in the tea beverage industry is 195,100 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% - Despite a slight contraction in delivery subsidies in September, Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming experienced a counter-cyclical increase in store efficiency growth [1] Future Outlook - According to Galaxy Securities, the new tea beverage leaders' FY25 PE has returned to a reasonable range after a Q3 adjustment - The firm anticipates high double-digit profit growth for Mi Xue and Gu Ming in Q3-Q4, with annual performance meeting expectations - Looking ahead to 2026, the investment focus in the industry is expected to shift towards market share enhancement, with Mi Xue and Gu Ming benefiting from stronger brand momentum, particularly after the withdrawal of delivery platform subsidy strategies in the second half of 2026 [1]