MIXUE GROUP(02097)
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批零社服行业2026年投资策略:景气向上,把握修复+成长双主线
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-15 01:32
Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]
蜜雪集团(02097.HK):雪王驾到-“饮”领全球 成本优势铸就核心竞争力
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-13 05:13
Core Insights - Mixue Group is the largest fresh beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of 1H25, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [1] - The fresh beverage market is experiencing significant growth, driven by consumer demand for upgraded ready-to-drink options, with a market share of 2.2% for Mixue Group, ranking it fourth globally by GMV in 2023 [1] Group 1: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Mixue Group aims to achieve a "trinity total cost leadership" by focusing on supply chain, brand IP, and store operations [2] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network covering 38 countries, with five major production bases [2] - The unique brand IP "Xue Wang" attracts a large consumer base, enhancing brand loyalty [2] Group 2: Expansion Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding in both domestic and international markets, targeting lower-tier cities in China and optimizing operations in Southeast Asia while exploring new markets in Central Asia and the Americas [2] - The introduction of sub-brands, such as Lucky Coffee and the recently acquired Fresh Beer brand, is expected to enhance the company's presence in the fresh beverage sector [2] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY respectively [3] - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2026, leading to a target price of 482 HKD, reflecting its leading position in the global fresh beverage market [3]
中央经济工作会议解读:内需主导放在首位,关注消费布局机会
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-12 13:07
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry rating but emphasizes a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector based on the central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and consumption opportunities [5][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various initiatives, including income distribution reforms and the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector [6][7]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry could see structural opportunities in 2026, driven by high-growth companies and favorable policy directions [7]. Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings are provided for sub-industries such as liquor, beverages, and food [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Guizhou Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Hold - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy - Yanjing Beer: Hold - Dashihua: Buy [3][11]. Recommended Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for recommended companies, indicating expected growth in EPS from 2024 to 2027 for each company, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 80.79 in 2027 [11].
海通国际:首予蜜雪集团(02097)优于大市评级 目标价482港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 02:18
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International projects that Mixue Group's revenue will reach 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting the company's leading position in the global ready-to-drink beverage industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue Group is the largest ready-to-drink beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of the first half of 2025, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [2] - According to data from ZhiShi Consulting, Mixue Group ranks as the fourth largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally, holding a market share of 2.2% based on 2023 GMV [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage segment is experiencing growth driven by economic expansion and rising disposable incomes, leading to a shift in consumer preferences from traditional beverages [3] - There are significant growth opportunities for ready-to-drink tea in lower-tier markets, with predictions indicating that most new store openings will occur in third-tier cities and below, benefiting Mixue's market share [3] Group 3: Competitive Strategy - Mixue Group aims to enhance its competitive edge through a "supply chain + brand IP + store operations" model, striving for a "trinity total cost leadership" [4] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network across six continents and 38 countries, along with five production bases [4] - Mixue's unique brand IP, "Xue Wang," attracts a large consumer base, distinguishing it within the industry [4] - The company has maintained a net increase of approximately 8,000 stores annually since 2020, with over 48,000 stores established in China by the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Mixue Group plans to continue expanding in domestic markets while capitalizing on the rapid development of lower-tier markets, leveraging its strong supply chain and store management capabilities [5] - The company is also focusing on international markets, with steady development in Southeast Asia and plans to gradually enter new markets in Central Asia and the Americas [5] - The establishment of sub-brands, such as the recently acquired "Xian Pi Fu Lu Jia," is expected to enhance Mixue's positioning in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [5]
海通国际:首予蜜雪集团优于大市评级 目标价482港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 02:09
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International projects that Mixue Group's revenue will reach 33 billion, 38.4 billion, and 42.2 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 6.74 billion, and 7.5 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting the company's leading position in the global ready-to-drink beverage industry [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue Group is the largest ready-to-drink beverage chain in China and a global leader, with 53,014 stores worldwide as of the first half of 2025, including 48,281 in China and 4,733 overseas [2] - According to data from Zhaoshang Consulting, Mixue Group ranks as the fourth largest ready-to-drink beverage company globally, holding a market share of 2.2% based on GMV in 2023 [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage segment is experiencing growth driven by economic expansion and rising disposable incomes, leading to a shift in consumer preferences from instant beverages [3] - There are significant growth opportunities for ready-to-drink tea in lower-tier cities, with predictions indicating that most new stores will open in third-tier cities and below, benefiting Mixue's market share [3] Group 3: Competitive Strategy - Mixue Group aims to enhance its competitive edge through a "supply chain + brand IP + store operations" model, striving for a "trinity total cost leadership" [4] - The company has established a digital end-to-end supply chain and a procurement network across six continents and 38 countries, along with five production bases [4] - Mixue's unique brand IP, "Xue Wang," attracts a large consumer base, distinguishing it within the industry [4] - The company has maintained a net increase of approximately 8,000 stores annually since 2020, establishing a vast network of over 48,000 stores in China by the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Mixue Group plans to penetrate untapped domestic markets while capitalizing on the rapid development of lower-tier cities, leveraging its strong supply chain and store management capabilities [5] - In the overseas market, the company aims for steady growth in Southeast Asia while gradually expanding into Central Asia and the Americas [5] - The establishment of the "Lucky Coffee" brand and the recent acquisition of the "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia" brand are expected to enhance Mixue's positioning in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [5]
蜜雪集团(02097):首次覆盖:雪王驾到:“饮”领全球,成本优势铸就核心竞争力
Haitong Securities International· 2025-12-11 08:48
Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - MIXUE Group is the largest fresh beverage chain in China and ranks fourth globally in terms of GMV, with a market share of 2.2% [3][7] - The company aims to achieve a "trinity of total cost leadership" through a strong supply chain, brand IP, and store operations [4][28] - The fresh beverage market is experiencing significant growth driven by rising disposable income and consumer demand for higher quality products [12][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 24.83 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.17 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 22% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4.45 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.50 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 40% [5] - The company is valued at a P/E of 25x for 2026, leading to a target price of HK$ 482 [5] Market Position - The fresh beverage market in China is expected to grow from RMB 517.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,163.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% [12][14] - The market share of fresh tea drinks is projected to increase significantly, especially in lower-tier cities [18][23] Competitive Advantages - MIXUE Group has established a comprehensive digital supply chain covering procurement, production, and logistics, allowing for cost advantages [30][37] - The company has a unique brand IP, "Snow King," which enhances brand recognition and consumer loyalty [38] - The franchise model has led to a rapid expansion of stores, with over 48,000 locations in China as of 1H25 [41][43] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to penetrate both domestic and international markets, focusing on lower-tier cities and Southeast Asia [4][49] - MIXUE Group has launched sub-brands like Lucky Coffee and Fresh Beer to diversify its product offerings and revenue streams [49]
「新消费观察」“10元鲜啤”冲击行业?鲜啤福鹿家全面开放加盟,复制雪王路线欲掀平价风暴
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-09 14:51
Core Insights - The core point of the article is that Mixue Group's fresh beer brand, Xianpi Fulujia, is launching an aggressive expansion strategy by opening up its franchise opportunities and eliminating previous approval processes, aiming to capitalize on the backing of its parent company, Mixue Group [2][3]. Expansion Strategy - Xianpi Fulujia has announced a new franchise policy that will fully open franchise channels from December 1 to December 31, 2025, eliminating the previous "old recommend new" approval process [3]. - The new franchise policy includes incentives such as waiving the annual franchise fee of 10,000 yuan for the first three years and exempting 1,500 yuan in fees for three winter months [3]. - The initial investment required to start a franchise is approximately 60,000 yuan, excluding store renovation and rent [3]. Financial Backing - Mixue Group plans to invest 286 million yuan to acquire 51% of the registered capital of Xianpi Fulujia's parent company, Fulu Jia (Zhengzhou) Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., making it a non-wholly owned subsidiary [3][4]. - Following the acquisition, Xianpi Fulujia's financial performance will be consolidated into Mixue Group's financial results [3]. Market Positioning - Xianpi Fulujia's pricing strategy aligns with Mixue Group's low-cost model, with products priced significantly lower than competitors, such as 5.9 yuan for 1 kg of Fulu Fresh Beer [4]. - The average consumer spending at Xianpi Fulujia is reported to be 16.55 yuan, which is considerably lower than other fresh beer brands [4]. Growth Metrics - The number of Xianpi Fulujia stores has rapidly increased from over 1,400 to more than 1,500 within approximately one month [5]. - The brand's expansion strategy is characterized by low entry barriers and high support for franchisees, mirroring the successful model of Mixue Ice City [5]. Industry Context - The craft beer segment, including fresh beer, is still in its early development stage, with no clear market leader established yet [6]. - The overall chain store density in the industry is low, with 57.9% of brands having five or fewer locations, while only 5.1% have over 100 locations [6]. - Compared to established daily consumer products like tea and coffee, craft beer still faces challenges in terms of market penetration and consumer frequency [6]. Competitive Landscape - The entry of Mixue Group into the craft beer market is expected to change the dynamics of the industry, promoting a low-cost and franchise-based expansion model [7]. - This move may intensify competition, forcing smaller brands to either optimize their supply chains or pursue differentiation strategies [7].
蜜雪集团(02097) - 截至二零二五年十一月三十日止月份之股份发行人的证券变动月报表
2025-12-04 08:37
股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致:香港交易及結算所有限公司 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02097 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 150,883,058 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 150,883,058 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 150,883,058 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 150,883,058 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | ...
蜜雪集团(02097) - 董事会审计委员会议事规则
2025-12-04 08:34
MIXUE Group 蜜雪冰城股份有限公司 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) 第一條 為強化蜜雪冰城股份有限公司(以下簡稱「公司」)董事會決策功能, 做到事前審計、專業審計,確保董事會對高管層的有效監督,進一步完善公司治 理結構,根據《中華人民共和國公司法》(以下簡稱「《公司法》」)《香港聯合交易所 有限公司證券上市規則》(以下簡稱「《香港上市規則》」)《蜜雪冰城股份有限公司 章程》(以下簡稱「《公司章程》」)等規定,制定本議事規則。 第二條 董事會審計委員會是董事會設立的專門工作機構,主要負責公司 內、外部審計的溝通、監督和核查工作。 公司設立的內部審計部門對審計委員會負責,向審計委員會報告工作。 第三條 《公司法》《公司章程》及《香港上市規則》關於董事義務的規定適用 於審計委員會委員。 第二章 人員組成 第四條 審計委員會成員由至少3名董事組成,全部為非執行董事,其中獨立 非執行董事佔多數,且至少應有一名獨立非執行董事是會計專業人士且符合《香 港上市規則》對具備適當專業資格或具備適當的會計或相關的財務管理專長的獨 立非執行董事的要求。 (股份代號:2097) 董事會審計委員會議事規則 第一章 ...
蜜雪冰城杀进早餐界
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-01 13:04
Core Insights - Mixue Ice City has launched a new breakfast product line, including four milk-based drinks priced at 5 yuan each, and is conducting consumer surveys to gather data for future product adjustments [1][2][6] Company Developments - The breakfast initiative is currently in a trial phase in cities like Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, with no plans for large-scale rollout yet [2] - Mixue Ice City has a strong presence with nearly 42,000 operating stores in China, which allows for rapid consumer reach for new products [7] - The company has recently expanded its business scope by acquiring a majority stake in the parent company of "Fresh Beer Fu Lu Jia," diversifying its offerings beyond tea and coffee [9] Industry Trends - The breakfast market in China is projected to reach 1.35 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 7%-8% [4] - The breakfast sector is currently fragmented, with the top five brands holding only 23.5% market share, indicating significant opportunities for new entrants [4] - Competitors like Tims and Starbucks have already established breakfast offerings, and other brands are also looking to enter this space to drive growth [5]