Group 1 - The Hang Seng Composite Index will include companies Bruker (00325.HK), Gu Ming (01364.HK), and Mixue Ice City (02097.HK) [1]

2025.05. 13 本文字数：588，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜 蜜雪冰城正在打开巴西市场。 近日，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）副总裁、美洲大区CEO孙建涛与巴西出口投资促进局（ApexBrasil） 主席豪尔赫•维亚纳（Jorge Viana）在京签署《谅解备忘录》。根据该备忘录，蜜雪冰城计划在其供 应链中进一步扩大巴西农产品的进口份额，包括但不限于咖啡生豆、水果制品等农产品。 据蜜雪冰城相关负责人介绍，计划未来3-5年将在巴西投资采购咖啡豆等农产品在内的总价值不低于 40亿人民币的物资。预计未来将提供25,000 个工作岗位。蜜雪冰城相关负责人透露，今年将在巴西 开出首家门店。接下来还将在巴西启动供应链工厂的建设。 近些年，中巴经贸合作持续深入。长期以来，中国都是巴西第一大贸易伙伴和第一大出口目的地。作 为全球第一大咖啡生产国，咖啡品质和风味独特，在中巴贸易往来中扮演着重要角色。 不只是咖啡进口，蜜雪冰城也是国内最早一批布局海外市场的现制饮品企业之一，从2018 年海外首 家门店在越南河内开业以来，目前蜜雪冰城全球门店网络已覆盖海外 12 个国家，海外门店数超过 5000家。 近年 ...

港股非酒精饮料股震荡上升，安德利果汁(02218.HK)涨超47%，统一企业中国(00220.HK)涨近9.5%，茶 百道(02555.HK)涨近9%，巨星传奇(06683.HK)涨超4%，古茗(01364.HK)、蜜雪集团(02097.HK)均涨 2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Mixue Group, assigning a target price of HK$565 based on a 39x P/E ratio for 2025, indicating an 11% upside potential from the current price of HK$510.50 [3][16][13] Core Insights - Mixue Group is the leading freshly-made beverage company in China, with a total of 46,479 stores globally as of the end of 2024, making it the largest in terms of store count [7][8] - The company holds a 20.2% market share in China's freshly-made tea market, which is twice that of the second-largest competitor, and is also the largest freshly-made tea brand in Southeast Asia [7][8] - The freshly-made beverage market in China reached RMB 517.5 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 22.2% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for value-for-money products [9][22] - Mixue's core products are priced between RMB 2 and RMB 8, making them highly competitive and appealing to cost-conscious consumers [9][39] - The company has established the largest and most digitized supply chain in the industry, ensuring high-quality and cost-effective product offerings [10][66] - Mixue has successfully created a super brand IP, "Snow King," which enhances consumer engagement and marketing efficiency, with branding expenses accounting for only 0.9% of revenue in 9M24 [11][11] - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow at CAGRs of 19% and 18% respectively from 2024 to 2027, primarily driven by the opening of new franchise stores [12][17] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The projected financial performance for Mixue Group is as follows: - Revenue (in million RMB): 20,302 in 2023, 24,829 in 2024, 29,973 in 2025E, 35,537 in 2026E, and 41,992 in 2027E, with growth rates of 50%, 22%, 21%, 19%, and 18% respectively [6] - Net Profit (in million RMB): 3,187 in 2023, 4,454 in 2024, 5,173 in 2025E, 6,183 in 2026E, and 7,369 in 2027E, with growth rates of 57%, 41%, 16%, 20%, and 19% respectively [6] - Earnings per Share (in RMB): 8.7 in 2023, 12.3 in 2024, 14.3 in 2025E, 17.1 in 2026E, and 20.4 in 2027E [6] Competitive Advantages - Mixue Group is the only company among the top five in the freshly-made beverage sector that focuses on the mass market, providing high-quality products at affordable prices [9][39] - The company has a simple product layout with high sales of evergreen products, including Freshly-Squeezed Lemonade, Fresh Ice Cream, and Bubble Tea, which together account for over 40% of revenue [63][63] - The extensive supply chain network allows Mixue to maintain quality and control costs effectively, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [66][69]

港股非酒精饮料股午后再度拉升，安德利果汁(02218.HK)涨超75%，茶百道(02555.HK)涨超20%，农夫 山泉(09633.HK)涨近8%，华润饮料(02460.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)、蜜雪集团(02097.HK)均涨超3.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese restaurant industry is experiencing a notable recovery driven by a shift in policy focus towards expanding domestic demand, with significant growth in consumer confidence and spending observed in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong restaurant index has rebounded over 20% since April 22, reaching around 787 points, with several restaurant companies like Xiaobai Xiaobai and Jiumaojiu showing positive performance [1]. - In Q1 2024, the offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with the dining sector growing by 14.5% [1]. - The overall revenue of the domestic restaurant industry in 2024 is projected to reach 55,718 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - The restaurant sector has shown double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, with 17 listed restaurant companies reporting an 11% increase in revenue and a 10% increase in profit for 2024 [5][6]. - The coffee and tea segment leads in revenue growth at 22.5%, while traditional Chinese dining (excluding hot pot) and fast food show growth rates of 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively [7]. Group 3: Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - The total number of restaurant stores increased by 20% in 2024, reaching 133,549, with coffee and tea stores growing by 24% [9][11]. - The closure rate of restaurants has risen to 61.2%, indicating a significant industry reshuffle [5]. - The trend of down-market expansion is evident, with 52% of restaurant stores located in third-tier cities and below [13]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Companies like Haidilao are adopting franchise models to penetrate lower-tier markets, with over 70% of franchise applications coming from these areas [14]. - New business models are being explored, such as Kudi Coffee's convenience store concept and Guoquan's community kitchen strategy [15]. - The restaurant sector is expected to stabilize in Q2 2025, with a potential recovery in valuation and fundamentals as seasonal demand increases [16].

本期带来2025年一季度IPO报告，港主板IPO募资金额最多，境外上市备案持续推进。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于超越 J Curve ，作者超越J曲线 超越 J Curve . 用数据延伸你的阅读 核心发现 作者丨 投中研究院 来源丨 超越 J Curve | 机构 | 上市数量 | 科创板数量 | | 参投项目 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CPE源峰 | 3 | 1 | 钓威电子 | 赛分科技 | 蜜雪集团 | | 君联资本 | 3 | 1 | 布鲁可 | 兴福电子 | 汉朔科技 | | 中金资本 | 3 | 1 | 脑动极光 | 兴福电子 | 汉朔科技 | | 红杉中国 | 3 | O | 古著 | 找钢集团 | 维异药业 | | 海通开元 | 2 | 2 | 兴福电子 | 胜科纳米 | | | 丰年资本 | 2 | 1 | 矽电股份 | 胜科纳米 | | | 复星创富 | 2 | 1 | 赛分科技 | 恒鑫生活 | | | 高瓴 | 2 | 1 | 赛分科技 | 蜜雪集团 | | | IDG资本 | 2 | 1 ...

關於本報告 About the Report 走進蜜雪冰城 Mixue Group Introduction ESG管理 ESG Management 合規經營 遵守商業道德 Operation Compliance and Business Ethics 高質平價 保障產品質量 Value-for-money, Ensuring Product Quality 價值共生 提升夥伴福祉 41 Creating Shared Value & Enhancing Partner Well-being 公益向善 積極回饋社會 70 Giving Back to Society 綠色行動 加強環境保護 Green Initiatives, Strengthening Environmental Protection 目錄 Table of Contents 附錄：香港聯交所指標索引 Appendix: Hong Kong Stock Exchange ESG Reporting Guide Index 01 03 07 15 22 79 99 關於本報告 ABOUT THE REPORT 本報告是蜜雪冰城股份有限公司 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, reached RMB 20,302,465, representing a 49.9% increase from RMB 13,575,577 in 2022[13] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 5,998,967, up 55.8% from RMB 3,846,837 in 2022[13] - Profit for the year increased to RMB 3,186,605 in 2023, a 58.2% rise compared to RMB 2,013,091 in 2022[13] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 8.71, reflecting a 56.5% increase from RMB 5.55 in 2022[13] - The Group recorded a revenue of RMB24,828.9 million in 2024, representing an increase of 22.3% compared to RMB20,302.5 million in 2023[68] - Revenue from sales of goods and equipment increased by 21.7% from RMB19,896.8 million in 2023 to RMB24,208.8 million in 2024[69] - Revenue from franchise and related services increased by 52.8% from RMB405.7 million in 2023 to RMB620.1 million in 2024, primarily driven by the expansion of the store network[69] - The gross profit of the Group was RMB8,060.2 million in 2024, an increase of 34.4% from RMB5,999.0 million in 2023[71] - Profit for the year increased by 39.8% from RMB3,186.6 million in 2023 to RMB4,454.2 million in 2024[90] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 14,593,566, a 46.7% increase from RMB 9,945,356 in 2022[15] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 3,998,101 in 2023, up 62.2% from RMB 2,466,089 in 2022[15] - Cash and cash equivalents, time deposits, and restricted cash increased by 63.8% to RMB11,109.5 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB6,783.6 million as of December 31, 2023[91] - The gearing ratio improved to 23.9% as of December 31, 2024, down from 27.4% as of December 31, 2023[103] - The Group had no significant investments or acquisitions during the year ended December 31, 2024[100] Store Network and Expansion - The company operates over 46,000 stores as of December 31, 2024, expanding its presence in China and 11 overseas countries[17] - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of stores reached 46,479, an increase from 37,565 in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 23.5%[29] - The number of franchised stores increased from 37,516 as of December 31, 2023 to 46,462 as of December 31, 2024, with closures of 1,609 stores in 2024[36] - The number of franchisees rose from 16,784 as of December 31, 2023 to 20,976 as of December 31, 2024, indicating a growth of about 25.5%[39] - The store network includes approximately 4,900 stores outside mainland China as of December 31, 2024, contributing to international expansion[27] Product Offerings - The company has two major brands: Mixue for freshly-made tea drinks and Lucky Cup for freshly-made coffee[20] - The average price of products offered by the company is approximately RMB 6 (around USD 1)[17] - The company’s core Mixue products are priced between RMB2 to RMB8, while Lucky Cup products range from RMB5 to RMB10, catering to diverse consumer preferences[22] - The company has introduced signature products such as Fresh Ice Cream and Freshly-Squeezed Lemonade, enhancing its product portfolio[118] Supply Chain and Operations - The company operates a highly digitalized end-to-end supply chain, with core ingredients being 100% self-produced[40] - The company established a strategic partnership with Junlebao to jointly build the Snow King Dairy Farm, expected to enhance supply chain capabilities and product quality by securing priority access to high-quality fresh milk[42] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's logistics system includes 27 warehouses in mainland China and a localized warehouse system in four overseas countries, covering over 300 cities[44] - The company has built a comprehensive digital infrastructure that supports key business aspects, including online ordering and supply chain management, contributing to operational efficiency[53] - The company maintains robust quality control standards to ensure consistent high-quality outputs throughout its supply chain[45] Financial Management and Expenses - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 21.3% from RMB1,318.6 million in 2023 to RMB1,599.5 million in 2024, accounting for 6.4% of total revenue[75] - Administrative expenses rose by 23.7% from RMB610.6 million in 2023 to RMB755.1 million in 2024, maintaining a ratio of 3.0% of total revenue[76] - Research and development expenses increased by 23.4% from RMB85.0 million in 2023 to RMB104.9 million in 2024, accounting for 0.4% of total revenue[82] - Finance costs decreased by 56.5% from RMB14.7 million in 2023 to RMB6.4 million in 2024, primarily due to repayment of bank borrowings[83] - Income tax expense rose from RMB967.4 million in 2023 to RMB1,356.4 million in 2024, primarily due to increased profit before tax[89] Corporate Governance and Leadership - Mr. Zhang Hongchao has over 28 years of experience in the freshly-made drinks industry, leading the company from a small store to a leading brand "蜜雪冰城" (Mi Xue Bing Cheng) with significant milestones achieved[118] - The management team is focused on enhancing brand building, store operations, marketing, and product management capabilities[124] - The leadership team includes experienced professionals with backgrounds in law and corporate governance, enhancing the company's strategic direction[135] - Ms. Cui is the chairperson of the supervisory board, responsible for overseeing the performance of directors and senior management[157] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The hashtag Mixue garnered over 43.5 billion views on Douyin as of December 31, 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of the company's online marketing strategy[50] - The company engages consumers through various activities, including Snow King parades and music festivals, integrating online and offline marketing efforts[50] - The Snow King IP has become the sole iconic character in China's freshly-made drinks industry, differentiating the brand from competitors[46] Dividend and Reserves - As of December 31, 2024, the total distributable reserves of the company amounted to RMB 1,739.4 million[188] - The company does not recommend the distribution of a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[183]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][40]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates brand dominance in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage sector, supported by an efficient supply chain and the emotional barrier created by the "Snow King" IP [3][40]. - The "Snow King" IP has become a top-tier brand in the IP space, enhancing emotional connections with consumers and improving marketing efficiency [2][34]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 29.58 billion, 33.37 billion, and 36.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 5.32 billion, 6.08 billion, and 6.70 billion CNY [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses a recent incident involving a store using overnight lemons and oranges, highlighting the consumer's leniency towards the brand due to its efficient supply chain and emotional connection through the "Snow King" IP [1][13]. 2. Brand Dominance in Affordable Ready-to-Drink Beverages - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 25.6% from 2021 to 2023. The company holds a market share of 32.7% in this segment, significantly leading over competitors [14][22]. 3. Emotional Barrier from "Snow King" IP - The "Snow King" IP was created in 2018 and has been developed through various marketing strategies, enhancing its emotional connection with consumers. The IP has gained high recognition and popularity, contributing to lower customer acquisition costs [2][27][34]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to open 9,000, 8,500, and 8,000 new franchise stores from 2025 to 2027, with a stable closure rate of 4.3%. Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly during this period [39][40].