2025茶饮"围城"。当规模叙事终结之后，茶饮赛道又呈现出怎样的存量博弈局面？ "老炮都不一定赚得到钱，小白怎么可能赚到钱？"李强笑着说。 他是自媒体"强哥聊餐饮"的主理人。从2020年开始，他以财务合伙的方式跟投了多个茶饮项目，有的月营业额能稳定在30-40万元，有的店至今仍未收回 成本。 在他看来，茶饮这门生意早就过了踏实肯干就能赚大钱的阶段，选择远远大于努力。 回顾2025年，茶饮行业，可谓冰火两重天。 古茗、蜜雪冰城、霸王茶姬、沪上阿姨陆续上市，加上之前的奈雪的茶、茶百道，茶饮赛道上市公司扩至六家；蜜雪冰城的全球门店数达到了惊人的4.7 万家，古茗也在高速扩张后成为第二个万店茶饮品牌；而二季度开始的外卖大战将各家单量推向新高的同时，又不可避免地让利润承压…… 许多迹象表明，新茶饮的规模叙事似乎已经接近尾声，而在存量竞争之下，有的人还在砸钱开店，有人却可能熬不过这个冬天。 最热闹的地方都不一定能赚到钱了 广州天河南一路，这里曾是中国茶饮市场的微观缩影。 地处顶级商圈，人流如织，鼎盛时期半条街都被各色茶饮店占据，这里也被称为"茶饮一条街"。 詹阳（化名）在这里做了十几年中介，手握整条街50多个业主资源。他 ...

行业趋势：优胜劣汰正发生，头部品牌强者更强 浙商证券认为，本轮自2023年初以来的餐饮行业复苏，其幅度由需求决定，节奏由供给决定。细分赛道 来看，基于供给变动节奏差异，茶饮细分领域的节奏领先西式快餐及正餐等细分领域约1至2个季度，头 部茶饮品牌已于25Q1逐步回暖，预计头部西式快餐/头部正餐分别已于25Q2/25Q3实现同店持平或回 正。 净开店维度，整体餐饮赛道格局改善已然开启。根据窄门餐眼数据，截止25年11月整体餐饮赛道同比呈 现净关店；同比视角下，细分赛道中仅咖啡/自助餐/轻食/江西菜/云南菜等细分赛道呈现同比净开店； 细分品牌来看，截止25年11月茶饮赛道中蜜雪冰城/古茗等、咖啡赛道中幸运咖/瑞幸等、西式快餐赛道 中肯德基/必胜客/达美乐等、火锅赛道中海底捞/巴奴等，均呈现优于同业的净开店速度，彰显品牌韧 性。 浙商证券认为，25Q2-25Q3虽有外卖平台大战扰动，延后部分赛道供给出清节奏，然而殊途同归，伴随 外卖补贴退坡，餐饮供给端的优胜劣汰正发生，格局改善已然开启。 单店维度，25H2起绝大多数头部品牌预计将实现同店持平或回正。客流量方面，伴随同比基数正常 化，25H2预计绝大多数头部品牌将实现 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Mixue Group Industry Overview - **Industry**: Tea Beverage Market - **Market Position**: Mixue Group has captured approximately 50% of the domestic tea beverage market, establishing an oligopoly structure and actively expanding into overseas markets, including factory establishment in Brazil and opening its first store in the United States [2][3]. Core Business Model and Competitive Advantages - **Business Model**: Mixue Group operates on a high-quality, low-price model, having introduced affordable yet high-quality products since 2000, which significantly boosted brand recognition [3]. - **Supply Chain Management**: The company has achieved significant competitive advantages through integrated supply chain management, optimizing efficiency from upstream procurement to downstream store management [6]. - **Cost Management**: By self-producing 70% of core raw materials and collaborating with planting bases, Mixue reduces raw material cost volatility and enhances operational efficiency [2][12]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin has rebounded to over 30%, with expectations for stability in the future due to improved capacity utilization and scale expansion [10][11]. - **Store Expansion Goals**: The company aims to reach 65,000 to 75,000 stores domestically and 15,000 or more internationally, with a long-term target of around 100,000 stores, corresponding to a market cap ceiling of 200 billion RMB [4][5][21]. Brand Development and Consumer Engagement - **IP Branding**: The creation of the "Snow King" IP and its promotion through social media has significantly enhanced consumer recognition and loyalty, with approximately 300 million members by 2024 [2][7][16]. - **Market Trends**: The tea beverage industry has maintained over 15% growth, but the oversaturation of stores has led to challenges in achieving profitability for some outlets [17][18]. Challenges and Strategic Responses - **Market Challenges**: In North America, challenges include the immature small store model and changing consumer habits regarding tea beverages. The company is adapting by developing suitable small store models and leveraging its supply chain capabilities [9]. - **Raw Material Price Fluctuations**: Mixue manages raw material price volatility through phased absorption strategies, maintaining stable gross margins despite market fluctuations [10][11]. Regional Market Insights - **Southeast Asia**: Mixue has established a strong presence in Southeast Asia, with plans to optimize pricing strategies and build a raw material production facility in Indonesia to enhance competitiveness [22]. - **North America**: The company has opened its first store in the U.S. and plans to expand based on consumer data collection, with a potential for 5,000 stores in the Americas [24]. Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to continue growing, particularly in lower-tier cities where operational costs are lower, providing a strong expansion opportunity for Mixue [19][20]. - **Long-term Goals**: The company aims for a total of around 100,000 stores, with a corresponding market cap potential of 200 billion RMB, indicating strong growth prospects if overseas expansion is successful [26].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 蜜雪冰城股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02097 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 150,883,058 | | 0 | | 150,883,058 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 150,883,058 | | 0 | | 150,883,058 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mixue Group, is positioned as a leading player in the global fresh beverage market, focusing on high-quality and affordable products, with a significant store network and strong sales performance in China and globally [1][2]. Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Mixue Group offers a range of products including fresh fruit drinks, tea, ice cream, and coffee, with an average price of approximately 6 RMB (1 USD) per item [1]. - The company has built a robust supply chain that supports its extensive store network, generating revenue primarily from the sale of materials and equipment needed for beverage production [1][2]. - The brand's positioning as "high-quality and affordable" resonates well with consumers, creating a unique emotional connection through its Snow King IP [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to maintain rapid growth due to its low price point and appeal to a broad consumer base, particularly in lower-tier markets [3]. - The current oversupply in the industry is likely to lead to a trend of eliminating weaker brands, favoring those with strong product and channel capabilities, such as Mixue [3]. - The company anticipates expanding its domestic store count to approximately 70,000 and establishing 10,000 to 15,000 stores in Southeast Asia, with potential growth in the Americas as well [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Mixue Group is projected to achieve net profits of 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.30 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% respectively [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 24, 21, and 19 for the same period, indicating a strong competitive position in profitability [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Mixue Group (02097.HK) has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising over 7% [1] - As of the report, the stock price reached 430.8 HKD, marking a gain of 7.32% [1] - The trading volume for the stock was reported at 260 million HKD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant stock price increase of Mixue Group, which rose by 7.32% to HKD 430.8, with a trading volume of HKD 260 million [1] - Mixue Group has recently opened two stores in New York, following the launch of its first U.S. store in Hollywood five days prior [1] - NBA legend Stephon Marbury shared a video of his visit to the Mixue store in Times Square, New York, on his social media account [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities views Mixue as a leading brand in affordable tea beverages, with a strong upward trend in market share [1] - The firm estimates that the number of domestic stores could reach approximately 70,000, with Southeast Asia expected to have between 10,000 to 15,000 stores [1] - The effectiveness of store model refinement in the Americas is also anticipated to yield positive results, with continued strong competitiveness in single-store profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mixue Group (02097) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently at 430.8 HKD with a trading volume of 260 million HKD, following the opening of two stores in New York and the recent launch of its first U.S. store in Hollywood [1] Group 1 - The company has opened two stores in New York, with the first U.S. store launched in Hollywood five days prior [1] - NBA legend Stephon Marbury shared a video of his visit to the Mixue store in Times Square on his social media [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities views Mixue as a leading brand in affordable tea drinks, with a strong upward trend in market share [1] - The firm estimates that the number of domestic stores could reach approximately 70,000, with Southeast Asia expected to have 10,000 to 15,000 stores [1] - The effectiveness of store model refinement in the Americas is also anticipated to yield positive results, with strong competitive profitability per store [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities reports that Mixue Group (02097) is a leading player in the affordable beverage market, with strong sales momentum driven by high-quality, cost-effective products and brand marketing. The company is expected to see net profits of 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.30 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 32%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 19. The rating is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Mixue Group is a global leader in the fresh beverage industry, offering products priced around 6 yuan (1 USD) including fruit drinks, tea, ice cream, and coffee. The company operates over 46,000 stores as of the end of 2024, with the highest beverage output in China and the second highest globally. Revenue primarily comes from the sale of materials and equipment to its stores through its own supply chain [1]. - The company has built a unique competitive moat in the affordable tea beverage market through over a decade of experience in supply chain management, store franchise management, and product development. The brand's positioning as "high-quality and affordable" resonates with consumers, and its Snow King IP has successfully established emotional connections with customers [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to continue growing rapidly due to its low price point appealing to mass consumer upgrades, with significant penetration potential in lower-tier markets. The pricing of affordable tea beverages is comparable to packaged drinks, making them essential consumer products with stable growth prospects. The current oversupply of stores in the industry is likely to lead to a trend of eliminating weaker brands, favoring those with strong product and channel capabilities, such as Mixue [3]. - The demand for freshly brewed coffee is on the rise, with "Lucky Coffee" targeting lower-tier markets and becoming the "first cup" of coffee for young consumers in small towns. The brand's marketing, location selection, and supply chain advantages position it well in the market, with a potential for 20,000 stores in the medium term [4].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities reports that Mixue Group (02097) is a leading affordable beverage brand, with strong sales momentum driven by high-quality, cost-effective products and IP-based brand marketing. The company is expected to see significant net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected figures of 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.30 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 32%, 12%, and 12% respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue Group is a global leader in the fresh beverage industry, offering products such as fruit drinks, tea, ice cream, and coffee at an average price of approximately 6 yuan (1 USD) [2]. - The company operates over 46,000 stores as of the end of 2024, with its beverage output ranking first in China and second globally [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Mixue has built a unique competitive moat in the affordable tea beverage market through over a decade of experience in supply chain management, store franchise management, and product development [3]. - The brand's positioning as "high-quality and affordable" resonates with consumers, and its Snow King IP has successfully established a unique emotional connection with customers [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to continue its rapid growth due to low price points appealing to mass consumer upgrades and significant penetration potential in lower-tier markets [4]. - The current oversupply in the industry is likely to lead to a trend of eliminating weaker brands, with strong brands like Mixue expected to gain market share, projecting domestic store numbers to reach approximately 70,000 and Southeast Asia stores to reach 10,000 to 15,000 [4]. Group 4: Coffee Segment Growth - The demand for freshly brewed coffee is rapidly increasing, with the segment still in the market education phase. Mixue's "Lucky Coffee" targets lower-tier markets, aiming to become the first choice for young consumers in small towns [5]. - The company anticipates a potential for 20,000 stores in the mid-term for Lucky Coffee, leveraging its advantages in branding, location selection, and supply chain collaboration [5].